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Recap, Part II: Colts defeat Patriots, 18-15

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I hated writing that story title...again.  This was such a winnable game for us.  If not for a few ill timed mistakes, we could've been on top of the AFC East.  Oh, did I mention we're in a 3 way?  No, not that kind, you pig.  A 3 way tie for first place with Buffalo and  New York.  Going into matchups with the Bills this week and the Jets next, this could get ugly.  A win against Indy would've put us at 6-2 and ahead of the other 2, but it wasn't meant to be.  It wasn't a question of one team wanting it more than the other; I always thought that was a stupid statement.  This game was execution.

As Stampede Blue's BigBlueShoe aptly stated in his postgame recap:

Say what you want about this New England teams minus Brady, but they are one tough, resilient bunch. We bash Belichick and call him "cheater," but the reality is he is one helluva coach. Games between Dungy and Belichick are chess matches, and it almost doesn't matter who plays QB, RB, or CB.These two are the best of the best at game management.

Star-divide

Game management.  It becomes a battle of strategy with these 2.  And, as I stated in my previous recap, there were some oddities in Belichick's game management that caused me to scratch my head.  4th and 1 with an offense that's running all over Indy's linebackers?  Seems doable to me, but I don't have the experience he has; I'm just some guy with a laptop and a television, playing armchair coach.  Then there was that ridiculous challenge of a 12th man on the field that cost them a critical timeout.  Ahhh... I gotta relax.  On to the stats.

The numbers were suprisingly even in a lot of cases and sometimes, oddly enough, slanted towards NE.  Total net yards were 342 for NE vs. 301 for Indy.  Yards rushing were 140 vs. 47 for Indy.  This shocked the hell out of me.  Last Monday, Indy managed to hold Tennessee, a rushing powerhouse, to 88 net yards rushing, but didn't seem to have an answer for 3rd stringer BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  I'd like to say "Law Firm" is just that talented, but I think this was a conscious decision by Dungy.  I believe he surrendered to our running game in order to focus more on defending the pass, as evidenced by uncharacteristically mediocre numbers for Welker (7 for 37) and Moss (6 for 65).  Dungy knows how dangerous these 2 can be, especially Welker, and wanted to take that away.  He was successful.

This one stat is a pet peeve and drives me nuts when it's low: redzone efficiency.  We were 1 for 4, 25%.  Out of 4 trips to the endzone we were only able to score once with a Green-Ellis freight train up the middle.  If you can't consistently convert in the redzone, you won't win games.  P.E.R.I.O.D.  That coupled with almost 10 more minutes of possession just infuriates me.  Cassel has said when you get into the redzone, everything gets compressed and it becomes that much harder to read what's going on and find the open man.  He's improved a lot, but he really needs to improve on redzone conversions.

There were a couple of plays that we muffed, but that's all it takes with the Colts.  On the other hand, it could have been a decisive win against a perennial AFC rival had we upped our redzone efficiency.  Passing gets you in the endzone, but Indy did a good job of shutting that down.  Credit where credit is due. 

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Belichick pretty much said as much

this afternoon on WEEI. He wasn’t happy with the red zone efficiency at all, and noted the margin of error in that low-possession game was so slim all it took was a few plays or decisions to make the difference.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 3, 2008 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

The whole game plan has me stymied.

When the D cheats up to stop the run, you audible to a play-action deep pass play to RM, even if it’s incomplete. Not one time did they even try play-action much less through one deep to Moss. The only pass over 15 yds all night was dropped by Gaffney. And I am not going to hammer Jabar for that. Chit happens, move on. Catch the next one thrown you way. The D was willing to keep everything short because the field tightens up in the red zone. It’s harder to run and certain pass plays are nearly impossible to complete for any gain. The offense needs to at least try to score from a longer range since that seems to be the achilles heel right now. Now that I have beat a dead horse for about the third time, I’ll shut up now.

"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory...lasts forever."-Shane Falco, "The Replacements"

by Ironman63 on Nov 4, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions  

Pretty accurate

We’ve been complaining about the deep ball all year. Lack of confidence, I guess.

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Nov 4, 2008 6:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Lack of confidence on who's part?

Cassel’s or the Coach? And if it’s on the coaching end, is it more McDaniels or Belichick?

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 4, 2008 8:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Belichick is usually

yelling at the defense during our drives.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Nov 4, 2008 8:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Both

Matt isn’t throwing long, IMO. If he’s not confident in his ability to get it done, then the coaching staff will call plays with a higher percentage of success, hence slants, options and underneath routes.

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Nov 4, 2008 8:49 AM EST up reply actions  

true

he tends to go to the ‘checkdown’ very quickly, meaning he is nervous in the pocket, so long routes don’t have time to develop.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Nov 4, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Sanders was playing deep half to Moss' side most of the game

they almost never brought him into the box so they could keep Moss from getting deep. That’s one of the big reasons the Pats were able to run when the last 3 teams the Colts faced couldn’t. The Colts respected the deep pass for most of the game.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
140 yards per game
6.3 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 4, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

That's what I thought

It felt like Dungy and crew made a decision to stay with Moss and Welker. It worked.

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Nov 4, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

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