Why 2008 Cassel is not as good as 2001-2006 Brady

by shake n bake on Nov 30, 2008 12:58 AM EST Comment 8 comments

I could just stop there but here are the changes in QB production when Randy Moss joined or left an offense.

Brad Johnson/Randal Cunningham (1997-1998) +2.3% completion, +955 yards, +15 TDs, +0 INTs, +1.8 yards/att, +2.6 yrds/comp, +19.2 QB Rating, +1,005 DYAR

Dante Culpepper/Brad Johnson (2004-2005) +5.9% completion, +1268 yards, +21 TDs, -5 INTs, +1.8 yrds/att, +1.7 yrds/comp, +29.2 QB Rating, +1736 DYAR

Kerry Collins (2004-2005) -2.8% completion, +264 yards, - 1TD, -8 INTs, -0.1 yrds/att, +0.3 yrds/comp, +2.5 QB Rating, +72 DYAR

Tom Brady (2006-2007) +7.1% completion, +1277 yards, +26 TDs, -4 INTs, +1.5 yrds/att, +1 yrds/comp, +29.3 QB Rating +1778 DYAR

That's an average of +3.1% completion, +941 yards, 15TDs, -4 INTs, +1.25 yrds/att, 1.4 yrds/comp, 20 QB rating, +1148 DYAR

Matt Cassel projects out to 66.3% completion, 3803 yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs, 7.3 yrds/att, 11 yrds/comp, 90.5 QB Rating, 603 DYAR

Subtract the average from adding/losing Moss and Cassel looks like the guy everyone expected.

63.2% completion, 2862 yards, 4 TDs, 15 INTs, 6 yrds/att, 9.6 yrds/comp, 70.5 QB rating, -545 DYAR.

The method has some pretty clear holes, but the trend is massive (especially if you are excluding Moss' Oakland slint where he was hurt and slacking). Cassel isn't 2001 Brady. He's having an ok season with the supporting cast that pushed Brady to one of the greatest QB seasons ever.

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Argh! This is like statistics class

You do love to squish the numbers. Makes my head hurt. Can’t you add some gossip in between the numbers to keep in interesting for me?
example: -4 INTs, +1.5 yrds/att, +1 yrds/comp, +29.3 QB Tom and Giselle, blah, blah, blah
+2.3% completion, +955 yards, +15 TDs, +0 INTs, Plaxico Burress shot himself in his own leg, blah, blah, blah,

by cia on Nov 30, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

seriously

I appreciate the effort. I’m not going to look at the numbers (it is the weekend) so I won’t agree or disagree with your conclusions, but I do appreciate the effort. Of course, the fact that I love Randy and Wes goes without saying.

by cia on Nov 30, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I should clean up the formatting

maybe after the Colts game

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Big Ten's leading Rusher, Leads FBS
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 30, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I get lost at the "we gotta get something for Cassel" argument

The Patriots will be getting Tom Brady back for 2009, and that’s a good thing. Really. For everyone calling for a Brady trade to keep Cassel, I understand that it’s a fear-based reaction based on Brady’s uncertain form after the knee surgery. But, to those wanting to franchise Cassel “just in case” or “to get a draft pick for him” I don’t agree at all.

The Patriots and fans have already received something for Cassel — an exciting and better than ever thought possible 2008 season when we thought it was as broken and lost as Brady’s ACL. He gave the Patriots 4 years of being the good soldier. Let him go and get on with his career leading some other team. Wish him well, and thank him for saving the season for us. Besides, we’ll get a draft pick for him anyway for losing him to free agency.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 30, 2008 12:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's right

What would the Patriots get as compensation? A third round pick?

by NESilver on Nov 30, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot to add

that we’ll need the cap money to lock up big Vince Wilfork as a Patriot for life!

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 30, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

From both a business and a player standpoint, I think the team has to let Cassel go. Franchising him would be bad for the team, as it would mean locking up cap room for two of the highest paid QBs in the league simultaneously and depriving the Patriots of the ability to compete in the free agent market. And in terms of decency, giving Matt a chance to score a large payday elsewhere and truly make a team his own would be fair as well. For a guy who stepped into one of the most glaring spotlights he could have imagined unexpectedly, he deserves that.

Also, while I wish Matt success anywhere he goes and while I’m sure Tom is a unique and rare talent, I also have faith in Bill and his coaches to take another young QB and groom him and teach him the system as well. It’s obvious that the New England offense isn’t just about getting the guy with the gaudiest stats on paper (last year’s insane output notwithstanding), but finding a guy capable of making multiple reads and getting the timing of everything down. Cassel’s first real game action didn’t come until this year, so if Tom is not the same player he is when he returns (and I really hope he is), the situation with a young QB stepping in won’t be dramatically different from what we saw this year, in my opinion.

by jctsai12 on Dec 1, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't care if he's the poor man's Bobby Thigpen

as long as we win.

As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead

by JohnHannahRules on Nov 30, 2008 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs