Playoffs for Dummies - Part I

by MaPatsFan on Dec 3, 2008 9:00 PM EST in News Comment 5 comments

With only 4 regular season games left and a 7-5 record, the hunt for a playoff spot is on. One of the most straightforward explanations I've found on how ties are broken can be found here. Open it up in a different window and keep it handy (you're gonna need it). Did I mention the AFC East hasn't been this close in a long time? Here's the current standings within the AFC East, opponents for the next 4 games, and their records:

Jets (8-4) - 49ers(4-8), Bills (6-6), Seahawks (2-10), Dolphins (7-5)
Pats (7-5) - Seahawks (2-10), Raiders (3-9), Cardinals (7-5), Bills (6-6)
Fins (7-5) - Bills (6-6), 49ers (4-8), Chiefs (2-10), Jets (8-4)
Bills (6-6) - Dolphins (7-5), Jets (8-4), Broncos (7-5), Patriots (7-5)

Leaving the Bills out of it for the moment, the Pats, Jets, and Fins will end up at 11-5 (winning out for Miami means they beat the Jets) and tie breaking rules for the Division Winner will apply. You kept that tie breaker link open, right?

Rule 1, Head-to-head record: 1-1
Rule 2, Won/Lost percentage within division: 4-2
Rule 3, Won/Lost percentage in common games: Pats (9-1), Fins (9-1), Jets (7-3)

Believe it or not, the Jets would be out of the Division leader race because they don't pass Rule 3, Win/Lost percentage in common games. They could still be in the hunt for a Wildcard spot, but that's for Part II. We've now narrowed the AFC East Division Champion race down to the Pats and Fins. We go back to Rule #1 once the third club is dropped off the list. Since both the Pats and Fins have passed through Rules 1 - 3, we move on to:

Rule 4, Won/Lost percentage in conference games: Pats (7-5), Fins (8-4)

The Miami Dolphins become the Division Winner and are guaranteed a playoff berth. We then battle it out with the Jets (and the rest of the AFC) for a potential Wildcard spot.

The most expensive games to lose, at this point, are divisional games. Ex: if the Fins win out, but lose against the Jets, they hand a win to a divisional opponent and blow their standing within the division. Jets at 12-4 would win the division, we'd finish at 11-5 and Miami at 10-6. Record is king. There would be no application of tie breaking rules. The Pats would then move on to other AFC teams with an 11-5 and the tie breaking rules would be applied to fight for WC spot.

Best possible scenario? We win out (11-5), Buffalo gets hot and beats both the Fins and the Jets, and the Fins beat the Jets (both end up 10-6). We become the division champs with a better record than both the Fins AND the Jets. Suddenly, the Bills are my new favorite team...except in Week 17.

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so funny, and timely

we were just doing the same thing here on scraps of paper, with the boys all shouting from one room to another with who’s playing who this Sunday in our division and in the conference, and trying to keep straight which team to root for. All we can do at this point is win the next 4 games, and let it all play out.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Dec 3, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Go Bills

so hot they exhaust themselves by week 17!

by cia on Dec 4, 2008 7:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wildcard

I’m sure the wildcard is #2, but our main competition is the Ravens for the last spot, since there is little chance we will beat the Colts, as well of course as the non AFC East champion should it not be us. I hope I don’t still any thunder from part #2 but I can’t wait to at least get a general sense.

Baltimore has Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville. They can easily lose 2 of those games, and end at 10-6, so if all AFC east teams end up at 11-5, then Miami wins the crown, and the Jets lose the same tiebreaker to us, and we become the last wildcard.

If Baltimore does end up tied with us at 11-5, I believe we would lose the conference games tiebreaker, as Baltimore only has 2 more conference games and if they only lost one they would be 8-4, and we could miss the playoffs at 11-5 unless the Colts somehow lose 2 games but don’t count on it.

If we don’t win out… eh, let’s not go there.

So we need to strongly cheer against Baltimore as well as our non-Buffalo division rivals.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Dec 4, 2008 9:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wild Card

Correct! WC2 is, more than likely, the spot we’ll compete for if a divisional win isn’t in the cards. That is, unless the Colts go into a massive downward spiral (not bloody likely). More to come…

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs