Conversation with an NYG fan and the future

by MaPatsFan on Jun 9, 2008 12:02 PM EDT

Before you run me out of town for dredging up this painful memory, give me a few moments. I happened to be on Long Island (pronounced LONG-GUY-LUND) in April. While ending the day with a colleague at a local watering hole, I struck up a conversation with a dude sitting next to us. He was, of course, an NYG fan. It was a very good conversation with virtually no homerism, just him sharing his excitement and me sharing my disappointment. He had an interesting thing to say when we discussed the moments after the clock ticked to zero. As he was jumping up and down, elated for his team's seemingly impossible victory, he thought of how utterly dejected New England fans must be. How painful this loss was. History riding in the balance, they just couldn't get it done.

We talked about Tyree's amazing helmet catch. We discussed Asante's near interception (I have to call BS on him being blamed for the loss. It was a catchable ball for Moss not Samuel). We talked about whether or not Strahan should retire (I think he should). All in all, a good conversation between 2 football fans. My poor colleague, a resident of the Philadelphia area and not a football fan, just absorbed the goings on. He's from Sweden anyway. They hit a little rubber disc with sticks.

The conversation got me thinking, how successful have Super Bowl winners been in the next season, so here we go.

Season	Winner	Loser	Score	Playoffs in Next Year
2006	Colts	Bears	29-17	Yes
2005	Steelers	Seahawks	21-10	No
2004	Patriots	Eagles	24-10	Yes
2003	Patriots	Panthers	32-29	Yes
2002	Buccaneers	Raiders	48-21	No
2001	Patriots	Rams	20-17	No
2000	Ravens	Giants	34-7	Yes
1999	Rams	Titans	23-16	Yes
1998	Broncos	Falcons	34-19	No
1997	Broncos	Packers	31-24	Yes

What this tells us is 6 out of 10 Super Bowl winners went on to the playoffs in the next season. So the Super Bowl champion Giants appear to have a 60% chance of making the playoffs, right? Not so fast. The NFC only won 2 of the 10 Super Bowls prior to the Giants win against NE. History is not on the NFC's side for a) winning a Super Bowl and b) returning to the playoffs as a Super Bowl champ.

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Looking at it

as NFC separately, the percentage drops to 50%, with a very small sample size. I think that it is a better overall picture with all NFL teams at 60%.

Of course, the real issue here is their division. I see Dallas winning the NFC East again, and probably faring better in the postseason. Washington is again transitioning, and the Eagles should improve, though not enough. I see the Giants as a wildcard team. They have made the playoffs the past three seasons.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 9, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

Tyree's catch

Peter King’s MMQ column had this to say today regarding Rodney Harrison, Asante Samuel and David Tyree’s catch.

Super Bowl hero David Tyree has a faith-based autobiography, More Than Just a Catch (Strang Book Group), coming out this September. One of the two forewords is by Rodney Harrison, the New England safety who will be inextricably linked forever with Tyree. (Eli Manning wrote the other.) Harrison, of course, played great defense on Tyree and was as close as you can be to separating a receiver from the ball when Tyree made the greatest catch - “the greatest play,” NFL Films poohbah Steve Sabol says - in Super Bowl history.
(I’ve said it a hundred times, and I’ll say it again: It wasn’t the defense Harrison played that allowed Tyree to make the catch. It’s the defense that a jogging Asante Samuel, trailing the ball, didn’t play that allowed the catch to be made. Just watch it again. Watch Samuel let up instead of going in like a torpedo to break up the play from the opposite side of Harrison. Had Samuel done his part, Tyree and the ball almost certainly would have been separated.)

Although it makes no difference whatsoever now, I have to agree with King on that assessment and once again give a shout out to my man Rodney.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jun 9, 2008 8:03 PM EDT reply actions

hmm

Great to hear you had a sensible conversation about the Pats. I work with some Bills fans and I can’t talk about football without ‘cheaters!’ being the first word out of their mouths. (And I have no animosity towards the Bills really)

However, I honestly think these statistics are pointless. You’re comparing apples to walnuts to rubber tires here. What we really need to look at is the competition, and the personal losses of the Giants. I would predict, as many will, that the Cowboys will win the NFC east again. I think the Giants have a good shot as a wild card again, but the impact of Strahan’s retirement may not be clear for a few games. Also, the Eagles will be a force to be reckoned with I predict. Though I think the Redskins will falter and not make the playoffs.

The good news is that few other NFC teams look like scary 2nd place teams, so the NFC east may again take all the wildcard positions.

by Mainiac on Jun 10, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

I think Strahan's retirement makes them a better team

Tuck is better than Strahan at this point, so he’ll be the undisputed starter now, and they won’t have all the locker room distractions that come along with Strahan.

by RSNexile on Jun 10, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

These stats

are like the Fidelity Investments disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Whether or not the Broncos beat the Falcons in 1998 has no bearing whatsoever on who will make the playoffs or win the next Super Bowl. All it can probably tell you is which Conference had the stronger team that year. A couple of injuries, a good draft, coaching changes, retiring players, finding gold in an UDFA… who can tell what a team’s turning point will be? Look at the Giants. The team was in disarray, the coach was about to be fired, and an overpaid, unreliable, interception-and-sack prone rookie quarterback was at the helm. Coughlin, in transforming his approach to his players, united his team and transformed them into Super Bowl Champions. An ending no one predicted at the beginning of the season and regardless of the fact that the AFC had won the previous 4 Super Bowls.

As far as Strahan’s retirement goes, he had to. After reading his book, it was clear to me that once he got his ring there would be no need or desire for him to torture his broken, hurting body any longer. He was one of a kind and will be missed.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jun 10, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions

What if you looked at it in terms of Super Bowl losers?

IIRC, only three of the ten Super Bowl losers from the ten years you selected made the playoffs the following year. If you’re saying the Giants have only a 60% chance of making the playoffs this year because six out of ten Super Bowl winners made the playoffs the next year, wouldn’t it follow that the Pats have only a 30% chance of making the playoffs this year? How many people here would buy that?

My point is that you can’t judge anything by what happened last season. We don’t know yet who is going to have a breakout season, who is going to start losing it, who the unforeseen big-impact rookies and injury replacements are going to be, and who is going to get hurt. Injuries in particular are huge in determining who makes the playoffs. In the AFC, where one 10-6 team didn’t even get a wild card last year, an injury to one key player can mean the difference between winning the Super Bowl and having a top-10 draft pick.

by RSNexile on Jun 10, 2008 5:58 PM EDT reply actions

i was gonna post the same thing about the super bowl losers. NO ONE is saying the patriots will not make the playoffs. not even the most die hard haters.
nothing is definite tho. but the pats will make the playoffs

by skywalker on Jun 11, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions