NFL.com's Pat Kirwan gets it right, almost
Pat Kirwan's article at NFL.com is a well written and objective article in my mind. Pat asks a number of burning questions and throw out some opinions based on his observations and interviews with Kraft, Pioli, Belichick and some of the players. I won't cut & paste the entire text of that article, but I'll attempt to answer the same questions in my homeristic, blogger frame of mind. If you're even remotely interested in comparing, bring up Kirwan's article and track side-by-side.
1. Can New England repeat its 16-0 2007 season?
No. Now, before you unleash a blanket party on my sorry butt and drop my sad carcass in an alley behind the Bell In Hand, hear me out. Most teams in the first half of the season were taken by surprise. Before they knew what hit them, it was over. Call it carpet bombing or call it a Blitzkrieg, the first 8 games were a massacre. And then came the Colts. As banged up as they were, it was a 4 point "Whew!!!". It's my opinion that most teams are preparing for the carnage we unleashed last year. I'm not saying we're gonna lose to Indy, but they're healthy and looking to prove it. I also feel that 2 west coast swings with back-to-back games will take their toll; I think we can expect a loss from 1 of those games.
2. Is secondary a primary concern?
Maybe. Rodney's aging, but he's still Rodney. Tank Williams is showing some stuff like a good veteran should (besides, I like his name). Terrence Wheatley appears to be challenging the vets for a spot. That's what we need - talented young guys willing to throw themselves in harm's way. I think the secondary will be underestimated.
3. Will problems that the Giants exposed be resolved?
The O line gets a bad wrap for the Superbowl. Unable to stop the crushing pass attack unleashed by the Giants' defense, Brady spent a lot of time eating fertilizer. But, let's not forget they protected him smashingly for most of the season. My biggest gripe, however, was not with the O line; it's with OC Josh McDaniels. The Patriots are known for adjusting in the second half and McDaniels didn't. Brady was taking too much time in the pocket and should've gone to a Manning (Peyton, that is) style quick release. I don't want to send too many props to the midwest, but Manning is one of the best in the league at this style of offense and I see the Patriots adopting some of that.
4. Is Seymour ready to return to his All-Pro form?
Seymour had a tough 2007, but supposedly he's healthy. He hasn't been practicing a whole lot, but don't read too much into that. Brady is only throwing one practice a day. Belichick seems to be protecting his vets and stars so they don't get worn out. Remember, the Patriots played a month more than most and need to rest their key players.
5. Where are the most critical position battles?
This is where I disagree with Kirwan. 3 out of 4 of his position battles are dead on except for Gaffney vs. Jackson. Kirwan feels Gaffney is in the lead for a third receiver spot. Gaffney has never struck me as a WR who lines up almost every play; in my mind, he's a speciality guy brought in to make sideline or corner grabs. Jackson is supposed to be the bull of the WR group; a receiver with RB capabilities post catch. I think that Gaffney and Jackson take on totally different roles.
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I have to agree with you...
I think that the final WR core will be:
Moss (go figure)
Welker (wow shocker there, I know)
Gafney (for the third down/red zone stuff like you said)
Jackson (as long as he doesn’t suck this year)
Washington (Is there a better special teamer in the NFL?)
Slater (long shot, but if anyone else is going to make it he will for his versitility)
I think the standard 3 WR line will be Moss, Welker and Jackson. Although we have hedged out bets signing Jordan to help with the extra reciever roll.
If anything changes from my list, I think it will be Slater. He is onthe bubble, but with his special teams abilities, I see us keeping him on this year, at the expense of a TE (Pollard). Jackson can handle the KR, and Slater the PR, with Faulk in for short punt type situations.
by Ogor on
Jul 30, 2008 12:54 AM EDT
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Great article
1. Can New England repeat? Absolutely! With the personnel they have to choose from, and in my eyes some really good players will have to be cut for the final roster, the Patriots will have the ability to beat any team on our schedule. I’m saying this knowing full well that the Colts are a better team this year, and that every single move the Chargers have made is with the goal of beating New England. Having the ability to win and translating that into actually winning is up for grabs on any given Sunday, but we CAN.
2. Is secondary a primary concern? No. Not anymore. Rodney is still a beast. A smart beast who knows how to read an offense.
3. Will problems that the Giants exposed be resolved? What? The problem of having a bad game? How does that “problem” get solved? The O line is just fine. I agree with you whole heartedly about Josh McDaniels’ non-decision to stick with the game plan (a la Mike Martz and his 2001 Rams) cost us the game. And you just can’t discount Belichick’s determination to look deep and patch up his own weaknesses, by bringing in Dom Capers. These two great minds will figure out how not to overwork the veterans, while utilizing the young legs of the newer guys in the best possible combinations.
4. Is Seymour ready to return to his All-Pro form? He certainly sounds ready. He’s reportedly in fantastic shape, and practiced with the team this off-season instead of on his own. I say YES!
5. Where are the most critical position battles? Gaffney isn’t in competition with anyone. He’s got a spot. At TC yesterday morning, all the WR’s were out there and it sure made me confident watching that extremely talented group. (By the way, Chad Jackson sure looked mighty fit from I was sitting, let me tell you.) We’ve come a long way since Reche Caldwell was our number 1 guy.
There is definitely competition at corner, but until we see how these players perform in some pre-season game action, I don’t trust my judgment in making a pick here quite yet.
Keep the faith!
by Marima on
Jul 30, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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I know you're responding to Kirwan,
but I don’t think he even asks the most important question. So, my screen name likely gives it away (and if we had the archives from the old site available and someone in Chicago hadn’t swiped my old name, there’d be even more evidence), but the most critical area for the Pats to address, this year as every year, is the offensive line.
In response to your response, here’s my take on the answer to that question:
When he was a coach (and a pretty good one at that), John Madden used to debate with another HC over where you start in building a team: Defensive backs or offensive line?
Naturally, I come out with Madden in saying it’s the guys in the trenches. Very little print is devoted to the Pat’s o-line concerns relative to the other stories out there. IMO, though, all those other issues (with the possible exception of Asante’s replacement) are gravy. Unless this line can coalesce with a new roster over the next month to six weeks, it’s going to be a very rocky season for the hometown team.
The big game was lost in the trenches; the Pats gave Brady no time and Maroney no lanes. True, it took Daniels waaaay too long to change his play-calling to quick-outs, screens, play-action and tosses to slow the upfield push. But that doesn’t excuse the performance by what, until that game, was one of the most highly regarded units in the game.
With Kaczur’s off-field issues, and uncertain replacements like Wes Britt fitting in, the fluidity and cohesion of this team-within-the-team has to be in question. And no one is doing a decent job of reporting or analysis on it.
On a personal note, I feel like the sporting press has been missing out on a great story here. For, like, the last 50 years or so. Offensive line play is a one-act drama played 30 times a game. The quarterback needs to know all, and an unfolding pass, read on the run, is a complex instant analysis. But the receivers don’t need to make a unison read—do your part. The o-line, on the other hand, must make a unison read and unison execution every time the ball is snapped. These guys have to be mentally tighter than any other unit on the field.
And, at the end of the day, if they fail even the best skill-players can’t bail the team out. And if they’re great, even an average skill-player can look great. Just look at the parade of running backs Denver had enjoyed. The real reign there has been an until lately superb line. Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones made Shaun Alexander an all-star in Seattle. Seattle failed to protect Hutchinson in free agency; Hutchinson went to Minnesota, teamed up with Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie, and did the same thing for (an admittedly greater) Adrian “Purple Jesus” Peterson. Everyone wondered, “Geez, what happened to Alexander?” Nothing! He was the same mincing, hit-shy guy he always was; it’s just that Seattle’s front office blew up his line. They dropped arguably their best run-blocker and couldn’t plug the hole.
So the guys I’ll be paying the most attention to this season are the front 5.
The left side looks as good as it ever has, but don’t take that as unleavened praise. While Logan Mankins is becoming one of the games premier guards, Matt Light, though better than average, wins his individual battles through craft more than outright athleticism and strength. Don’t get me wrong—I’m a big fan. He’s dogged and a tenacious pass-blocker. He does have trouble with some speed rushers, and has particular trouble with talented end/LB combos when both players combine speed with strength. It strikes me that I’ve just described the limits of a pretty damned good football player. One of the best at his position now playing. Young Logan, however, may become one of the greats if he continues to improve.
Dan Koppen, though initially regarded as undersized, is beginning to enter Jeff Saturday and, perhaps eventually, Dermontti Dawson territory. He may never be as physically dominating as Dawson was, but he has the tools to emulate Saturday, who is practically an identically-sized center. All that separates them in my mind is tenure.
On the right, all is chaos. In truth, the Patriots haven’t had a very solid or reliable guard-center tandem on this side of the line in my memory. Last year was about as good as I can remember, as Kaczur began to come into his own at right tackle—a slot that ’s been a bit of a revolving door for the Patriots. Ryan O’Callaghan would have been my pick for the inside edge on this slot, as the Pats took a long look at him in last year’s camp, and he saw significant playing time (for a back up) last year. Yet it’s been fellow third year man-mountain Wesley Britt who’s been seeing the majority of 1st team snaps in Kaczur’s absence.
Both Britt and O’Callaghan are huge prototypical run-blocking types. But the fact is, center and left have been the Patriots most successful running lanes. That means that right tackle has been notably weaker in the one area the position is expected to be stronger (at least in front of a right-handed Brady).
It also does not speak very highly of our guard play over there. Neal is a favorite of writers, given his unorthodox entry into the NFL. (See him outlast a comic-book proportioned and really classy guy Brock Lesner for his fourth consecutive NCAA wrestling title here.)
This has been coverable in the past largely through the service of excellent run-blocking tight-ends. My guess (oh OK, my fervent hope) is that, with none of our TE’s showing much run-blocking prowess, this deficiency will be addressed through an “I” or “Pro” formation with a blocking back. Evans, Jordan and Eckel can all serve this role—in that order. (When he’s treated to the luxury of a lead back, Laurence Maroney is fcking scary. I think it’s because he ran out of the “I” in college.) He was also becoming a very solid guard, with his play toward the end of the ‘06 season putting him in the upper rank of the league.
2007 was a hard year for Neal, though. His battle with shoulder injuries led his teammates to honor him with the Ed Block Courage Award. Had he not been injured early in the game, the Super Bowl may have turned out very differently. But he’s still on the PUP list.
Filling in for Neal now, as in the Super Bowl, is perennial utility man Russ Hochstein. Russ, Russ, Russ. What are we going to do with you? Famously called out by Warren Sapp before the SB with the Panthers, Hochstein had a superb day. He’s been an able replacement up and down the line for the last few years. But when Neal went down suddenly in the ‘Bowl, Hochstein turned in a turnstile performance against Justin Tuck and Co. To be fair, he had a lot of company, but the wall was crumbling up the middle—a disaster for pass or run. Yet, he may be the guy come the start of the season. Which Russ will we get?
Billy Yates, whose life I do not envy, is a back-up here. Yates’ career resume looks like a yo-yo: signed, released, signed, release, active, inactive, practice squad, active, released, signed…. Ugh. It’s enough to drive a man to drinking—which is what I’ll be doing if this guy becomes a starter. Waka waka waka. Oh, who am I kidding. I’m drinking anyway.
Finally, in addition to a couple of veteran free agents, we also have a youngster in camp. Ryan Wendell, a former Fresno State Bulldog under coach Pat Hill, has been signed. He’s a smart cat, and I like Fresno’s playing style—they seem to develop high-character guys. Wendell’s a little slight for the NFL right now; most likely he’s a project for Dante.
And I’ll conclude with Dante, in whom all hope resides. In his 28 year long NFL coaching career, Dante Scarnecchia has earned a reputation as one of the finest coaches of the lineman’s art in the game. Over the past several seasons, he has molded a young group of talent into one of the more envied units in the league.
In spite of my skepticism regarding the right side of the line, I have no doubt that Dante’s the man. I had an old coach once who used to say, “You can’t mold sht.” Thankfully, Dante has more to work with than that—a good deal more.
One thing he has going for him is the history his players have with each other. Holding the line constant can make up for a lot—rare is the Hutchinson type of player who can meld quickly into an established group (and if you look at the Vikings pass-pro, you’ll see they still have a long way to go). This unit has been a unit for a long time in terms of the free-agent era. More than anything else, that is its greatest strength. Superior communication and mutual anticipation can go a long way. It can turn average players into an above-average unit, and an already good unit into one of the greatest in the game.
All in all, this is still one of the more solid units in the NFL. It isn’t ironclad by any means, however, and this camp will be a very important time for them. Unit cohesion is going to have to extend further past the starting 5 than in the last two years in order for the Pats to have a legitimate shot at bringing home another trophy—and I don’t mean the one named after Lamar Hunt.
by JohnHannahRules on
Jul 30, 2008 11:19 AM EDT
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huh.
there are some textual f-ups in that post that didn’t come out in the preview. hope you all can figure out where that line goes.
the ‘graph that starts “This has been coverable in the past…” should actually be at the end of the ‘graph on the tackles.
the two paragraphs on Neal should be one, and come after the discussion of blocking RBs.
oh well.
by JohnHannahRules on
Jul 30, 2008 11:22 AM EDT
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PS
Can you believe how great it is to be a Patriots fan right now? I mean, Pat Kirwan is trying to soften expectations for a repeat undefeated season by predicting a play-off team with something like a 12-4 or 13-3 record!
I have to confess—this is great. I never once imagined, growing up, that the Pats would be so damn good that we’d have to “settle” for a 12-4 season. Holy Hell.
by JohnHannahRules on
Jul 30, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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Word
I “suffered” through many Sundays in Mosi’s Endzone and have the battle scars to prove it. The culprit was usually a greek friend of mine’s homemade “moonshine” called Raki. Great stuff, but I’m missing a few brain cells because of it.
Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
by MaPatsFan on
Jul 30, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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yeah...
I posted this just after the SB, and I know a lot of people weren’t reading the blog too much back then.. So here it is again, one of the best stats that the Pats own:
The Patriots have a 91-37 regular-season record since 2000, best in football. Seven years of dominance… its more then I ever could have hoped for back in the 80s, and to a degree the 90s
I think I can honestly remember all 37 of those losses as well… considering if you take out 2000( before Brady started) we only have 26 losses, its pretty amazing! It is a good decade to be a Pats fan…
By year:
2000.5-11
2001.11-5
2002. 9-7
2003.14-2
2004.14-2
2005.10-6
2006.12-4
2007.16-0
by Ogor on
Jul 30, 2008 2:24 PM EDT
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Raki
If I’m not mistaken, it’s actually Turkish (at least the Turks think so). I love the stuff, but it’s hard to find.
by JohnHannahRules on
Jul 30, 2008 2:11 PM EDT
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Technically it's Turkish
His Greek grandfather made it in a bathtub or something. Whoooo doggy.
Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
by MaPatsFan on
Jul 30, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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