A tale of the tape: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

by MaPatsFan on Oct 1, 2009 7:51 PM EDT in New England Patriots News

Boom Baby! We gotta game. I think it's fair to say this will be our toughest 2009 opponent to date. Yeah, the Jets were no cakewalk, but they don't have the offense Baltimore has, sports fans. Did I mention their total offense is #2 in the league? Let's not forget #1 rushing D. Hmm... What to do, what to do.

Let me continue by saying it's hard to dispute that Joe Flacco, on a great day, couldn't hold a candle to a healthy, non-rusty Tom Brady. I think that's obvious. However, Mr. Bundchen is not non-rusty (2 negatives make a positive, btw). He is struggling to get in sync with his receivers. They go left, he throws right. And don't get me started on Joey Galloway. 2 serious errors in the end zone against Atlanta helped account for our abysmal 1/5 in the red zone this past Sunday. We also didn't have Wes Welker, the little engine that can. Did I mention he's my favorite Patriot? All for you, JHR, all for you. ;-)

Stats don't tell the whole story, but they do give us a basis for discussion and comparison. Let's take a peek at each team's past 3 opponents, shall we? At the top of each table "cell" I'll place our team's opposing standing. Ex: for Total O, I'll put our Total D.

Team	Total O	Rushing O	Passing O	Total D	Rushing D	Passing D
Patriots	NE: 6 BUF: 17 NYJ: 20 FAL: 23	NE: 10 BUF: 9 NYJ: 11 FAL: 23	NE: 6 BUF: 24 NYJ: 25 FAL: 16	NE: 5 BUF: 28 NYJ: 3 FAL: 24	NE: 17 BUF: 18 NYJ: 9 FAL: 24	NE: 3 BUF: 28 NYJ: 5 FAL: 22
Ravens	BAL: 7 KC: 30 SD: 8 CLE: 32	BAL: 1 KC: 22 SD: 31 CLE: 29	BAL: 17 KC: 28 SD: 2 CLE: 31	BAL: 2 KC: 21 SD: 14 CLE: 30	BAL: 5 KC: 19 SD: 26 CLE: 30	BAL: 5 KC: 20 SD: 8 CLE: 16

What is this telling us?

Our rushing O of 17 probably can't stand up to Baltimore's rushing D of 1. However, they've played teams with questionable rushing O's to date.
We've played marginally better offenses than Baltimore.
Our Passing D of 6th is against below average passing offenses.
Baltimore's total offense of 2 is against below average total defenses.

Enough of that. You can probably make your own observations. So, what should we do, based on the stats?

Aerial Assault - Baltimore's passing defense is 17th even against mediocre passing offenses. Fingers crossed, if Brady and his receivers get in sync, it's going to be a long day for Baltimore.
Limit Rushing - Baltimore's rushing offense of 5 is against average to pitiful rushing defenses, so take that ranking with a grain of salt. Plug up the gaps, possibly with some solid blitzing and/or a 4-3 alignment and we should have some success.
Rushing to unbalance - Baltimore's rushing D of 1, while against mediocre opponents THIS year, is legit. They've kept backs under 100 yards for like a zillion games. We should use our backs to keep the Ravens' D off balance, not as a primary weapon.
Different Looks - A passing O of 5 was against decent passing defenses. Joe Flacco has to be accounted for and I think the way to do that is with a number of different looks on our defense. 4-3-4, 2-4-5, 2-3-6, 3-2-6, 3-3-5... we've all seen Belichick throw the kitchen sink at an offense. Let's hope it flusters Flacco.

What say you? Is this an even matchup? What would you do, based on the stats? Are the stats even valid?

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Comments

Too early for stats to say much

but they may be indicative of some trends. It will be a good game, and I actually get to see this one.
I hope Wes is close to 100%, we’ll need him to be competitive.
Mr. Galloway, pull your head out and play like a big boy receiver. We’ll need 2 deep threats to keep the safeties honest.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Oct 1, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

Having Welker back and Moss healthy will help Galloway a lot

Welker can do all the little-engine-that-could routes, and everyone will love him for it. That means that Moss can get back to doing everything he does well – mid-routes, mid-range comeback routes, outjumping people, and long bombs. Between those two, Galloway can do what he’s actually capable of – running deep. Even if they don’t throw to him. Even if they never even think about throwing to him. If he runs deep, someone has to cover him, and that means that Moss and Welker have that little bit of extra space. If Galloway gets space, well, even he can catch then. And if he doesn’t, it means Moss and Welker have it instead, and that’s wonderful.

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 1, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

hmmmm

this game could be a defining game for the Pats., and some how I am nervouse but with a little breez of a good feeling. my predictions is that the Pat will win, and make us more of a believers. GO PATS

by DeepThreat2u on Oct 2, 2009 8:20 AM EDT reply actions

I simply can't buy the Ravens

Until they beat more quality opponents. I will admit they take care of the cupcakes though.

I am excited for this game, many people will pick the Ravens and a victory here would make the Jets loss look more like an early season fluke as our teams meshes together. I am glad we won last week or otherwise this would be a must win. Brady seemed to be comfortable throwing down field last week so I’m hoping we see a bomb or two. Phil Rivers seemed to carve up Baltimore until the red zone at least.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Oct 2, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions

Until the redzone

That’s true, the passing defense the Ravens have is not close to as strong as their running defense. But the Ravens have excelled in the red zone. There opposing teams have less room to work with, and the ravens crank up the pressure.

Getting to the 20 shouldn’t be a problem. Getting to the goal line might be.

by Bman21212 on Oct 2, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, it's an even game

But I’m a little concerned with our rusty QB – because Flacco is in a great moment, and because of their blitzes.

But I believe in our D, and I also believe that our OL has learned something in that loss against the Jets. Brady is gonna be more protected to do his job – I hope.

by kleitonsc on Oct 2, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

Hey you are wearing my logo.....

Jack of all trades-Master of None.....

by Yardpenalty.com on Oct 3, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Injuries

Wilfork won’t be playing, and as big as Terdell Sands is, I don’t know the guy and his athletic ability. If his presence can force the Ravens to double up on him, then that will help.

Hopefully Welker’s knee is ready to go, and Galloway’s hands.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 2, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

And Galloway's Head

That’s his problem

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Oct 2, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Vince should play

Jack of all trades-Master of None.....

by Yardpenalty.com on Oct 3, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

You're right, he might

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 3, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

This is going to be a great game

You guys have a nice site here ….good stuff.
I think this is a BIG game for both teams, and I know, I know, it’s only week 4.
Baltimore can possibly get a 3 game jump on Pittsburgh (Go SanD !).
Pats need to keep pace with a very good Jets team.

I think the game comes down to two main situations, first: Brady and the ability of his receivers to exploit an undersized and at times uncoordinated secondary.
second, Flacco (Unflappable?) finding targets against a defense that hides its intentions very well.

I think this is going to be a fairly high scoring game and either way very entertaining.

…and just a parting thought that we have been laughing about in Baltimore…how many injections of sodium pentathol do you suppose Prescott Burgess received during his tenure as a Patriot ?

by CravinRaven on Oct 2, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions

LOL

Prescott wouldn’t say whether he gave the coaches any information or not, but he was cut soon after arriving – and then signed back to the practice squad the next day. Maybe Belichick had a few more questions for him?

“Yeah, good to have you back Prescott, don’t worry about this, it’s just a vitamin shot…”

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 2, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Any idea if signing him to the practice squad means that conditional draft pick is still owed to the Ravens?

I saw it reported that they wouldn’t owe it because he was cut, but I’m not sure what happens with that due to the nature of the practice squad signing.

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 4, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions

run run run

The formula for the Pats Defense is the same as it has been and will be all season:

1a) Stuff the run up the middle. Not having Vince & Mayo makes this hard, but it still is focus number 1a.
1b) rely on Springs, Bodden & Co to take away all deep balls. No big plays downfield.
2) Because Springs & Bodden are such good man-cover corners, the Safeties can cheat and help on the run, cover the TE (Heap) or even blitz
3) Bring pressure on the QB from the ends. That means we over-pursue and get beat on edge runs. But that’s okay, because those plays take longer and the safeties should be cheating to pick up the trash that leaks around the edges.

This formula results in classic Bellicheck ‘bend but don’t break’ defense.

I think that the Pats secondary can cover Baltimore’s recievers so job 1b is locked down. The question will be whether, without Vince playing, they can do 1a. Stop Baltimore from pounding it up the middle. That is the key to the game when the Pats defense is on the field.

On offense the formula should be to challenge the fact that the Ravens haven’t faced a strong running game yet. They need to be patient, but I believe the Ravens can be worn down. Everybody they have played so far gave up on the run right away. The Pats line is a great run-blocking line. Don’t go by the rushing numbers of the first two games when they only rushed a TOTAL of 43 times. If the Pats run it at least 30 and preferably at least 35 times, they will beat the crap out of any defense. And then that will give them play action and the ability to strike down field.

Alternatively, if they can solve some of the WR dropsies and Brady misfires that have plagued them the first three weeks, they can also wear out the defense with classic Patriot’s dink & dunk passing, ala Charlie Weiss. That’s almost as good as a running game for wearing out a defense, especially if you get the LBs running from sideline to sideline.

Bottom line, I think the Pats have the ability to win this game easily if they play smart. Especially considering that it is in Foxboro so noise will be heavily in their favor.

by mmmmm on Oct 2, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

Baltimore’s rushing offense of 5 is against average to pitiful rushing defenses, so take that ranking with a grain of salt. Plug up the gaps, possibly with some solid blitzing and/or a 4-3 alignment and we should have some success.

But you fail to realize that KC, SD and Clev poor rush defense ranking are also a reason because we had so much success on them. After only 3 weeks, the Ravens account for roughly a third of the average rushing yards that our opponents have given up. So our success should not be taken with a grain of salt. Yes, if it was week 12 and we put up 175 on the 29th ranked run defense, then sure you have something to say. But you substitute in a some of the other poor rushing attacks in the league against our first 3 opponents, and their rankings would go up a pretty good bit.

And basing anything off of last year is irrelevant. New year, new styles, new everything.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 2, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

Hmm...

But you fail to realize that KC, SD and Clev poor rush defense ranking are also a reason because we had so much success on them. After only 3 weeks, the Ravens account for roughly a third of the average rushing yards that our opponents have given up.

I did think of that, btw. But it’s a bit too cumbersome to fold into the discussion. You also need to keep in mind your opponents played 2 other teams which had something to do with their poor showing at run D. Just as it may be too early to use stats in this situation (which is why I asked the questions at the end of the post), it’s too early to claim a solid rushing O.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Oct 2, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless you have Adrian Peterson.

Ever have the urge to abduct, clone and artificially grow a football team in large vats as much as when you watch this guy run?

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 3, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

You know … I have seen BB gives interviews and speaks at the podiums after games or during the week … honest to god … why the heck some writers describe him as cold, selfish or whatever negative views about him … in my opinion … it’s his right to tell you and everyone what he feels will give his team the edge …. Everything he does is for the team … when anyone noticed that he tries to get the attention to himself… unless of course to take the pressure of his players… when did he run his mouth like that jerk who will eventually kiss and keep kissing the rings of BB … when did he say anything that ridicules himself or his team … he actually has a nice sense of humor and comes across as humble … he always complementing of the opponents and demand the hard work and ethics from his players … tell me … how much would BB command in the open market to coach another team … you don’t thing that he will cross the $10M per year ( as in 10 millions) .. Please tell me… I would like to know your thoughts … and please if you are not a Pat fan … I love to hear the truth from you… Thank you

by DeepThreat2u on Oct 3, 2009 6:29 AM EDT reply actions