The Hill's Power Rankings + Week 8 Picks

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 6:21 PM EDT Comment 20 comments

So I guess I should do some introduction for my power rankings. They include a few simple statistics and are defined by another simple formula that I've come up with.

Included:

Winning Percentage

Points Differential/Game

"Quality Wins"

"Bad Losses"

Initially, I come up with the ranking using just winning percentage and points differential/game. The formula I use is:

100*Winning Percentage+Points Differential/Game

This groups teams by their current record and splits teams according to what the point differential is.

Rank	Team	Score
1	New Orleans Saints	118.50
2	Indianapolis Colts	117.00
3	Denver Broncos	111.17
4	Minnesota Vikings	94.00
5	New England Patriots	85.71
6	New York Giants	78.86
7	Green Bay Packers	77.50
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	76.86
9	Cincinnati Bengals	76.43
10	Philadelphia Eagles	74.50
11	Dallas Cowboys	73.33
12	Atlanta Falcons	71.67
13	Arizona Cardinals	71.17
14	New York Jets	64.00
15	Houston Texans	58.43
16	Baltimore Ravens	56.50
17	San Diego Chargers	53.00
18	San Francisco 49ers	51.83
19	Chicago Bears	47.50
20	Jacksonville Jaguars	45.50
21	Buffalo Bills	39.29
22	Seattle Seahawks	34.83
23	Miami Dolphins	32.33
24	Carolina Panthers	24.83
25	Washington Redskins	24.71
26	Oakland Raiders	12.14
27	Kansas City Chiefs	3.43
28	Detroit Lions	2.50
29	Cleveland Browns	(1.00)
30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	(15.29)
31	Tennessee Titans	(19.00)
32	St. Louis Rams	(21.57)

With this base ranking, I adjust it with the quality wins and bad losses:

"Quality Wins": Victories against teams ranked 1-16 in the base rankings

"Bad Losses": Losses against the bottom 10 teams in the base rankings. If your team is in the bottom 10, then a "Bad Loss" is a loss against a team ranked lower (ie: I have Washington base ranked 25. They lost to Detroit (base ranked 28), so they get 1 bad loss).

I adjust the rankings with

Base Score + Quality Wins*10 - Bad Losses*5

Why? No rhyme or reason, it works well in my opinion and, in my power rankings, that's all that really matters!

Here are my final rankings and how the Adjusted Ranking differs from the Base.

Rank	Team	QA Score	Difference
1	Denver Broncos	151.17	2
2	New Orleans Saints	148.50	-1
3	Indianapolis Colts	127.00	-1
4	Cincinnati Bengals	116.40	5
5	Minnesota Vikings	113.99	-1
6	New England Patriots	105.69	-1
7	Atlanta Falcons	91.70	5
8	Arizona Cardinals	91.20	5
9	New York Giants	88.83	-3
10	Pittsburgh Steelers	86.83	-2
11	Dallas Cowboys	83.37	0
12	Houston Texans	78.39	3
13	Green Bay Packers	77.53	-6
14	New York Jets	73.96	0
15	Philadelphia Eagles	69.53	-5
16	San Francisco 49ers	61.83	2
17	Chicago Bears	57.50	2
18	Baltimore Ravens	56.50	-2
19	San Diego Chargers	53.00	-2
20	Jacksonville Jaguars	50.50	0
21	Miami Dolphins	42.30	2
22	Buffalo Bills	39.33	-1
23	Seattle Seahawks	34.80	-1
24	Carolina Panthers	24.80	0
25	Oakland Raiders	22.17	1
26	Washington Redskins	14.74	-1
27	Kansas City Chiefs	3.44	0
28	Detroit Lions	2.53	0
29	Cleveland Browns	(0.99)	0
30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	(15.29)	0
31	Tennessee Titans	(19.00)	0
32	St. Louis Rams	(21.57)	0

Thoughts? Comments?

Thanks for reading!

Edit:

Predictions for Next Week's Games!

Away Teams: Adjusted Score + Away Winning Percentage*50

Home Teams: Adjusted Score + Home Winning Percentage*100

Picks in Bold

Denver Broncos	151.17	201.17
Baltimore Ravens	56.50	122.50

New York Giants	88.83	126.33
Philadelphia Eagles	69.53	135.53

Houston Texans	78.39	111.39
Buffalo Bills	39.33	72.33

Seattle Seahawks	34.80	34.80
Dallas Cowboys	83.37	149.37

Miami Dolphins	42.30	42.30
New York Jets	73.96	139.96

San Francisco 49ers	61.83	78.33
Indianapolis Colts	127.00	227.00

St. Louis Rams	(21.57)	(21.57)
Detroit Lions	2.53	52.53

Cleveland Browns	(0.99)	15.51
Chicago Bears	57.50	157.50

Oakland Raiders	22.17	38.67
San Diego Chargers	53.00	86.00

Carolina Panthers	24.80	41.30
Arizona Cardinals	91.20	124.20

Jacksonville Jaguars	50.50	67.00
Tennessee Titans	(19.00)	(19.00)

Minnesota Vikings	113.99	151.49
Green Bay Packers	77.53	143.53

Atlanta Falcons	91.70	108.20
New Orleans Saints	148.50	248.50

Woo!

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Comments

Pretty cool

It keeps the Patriots right around where the “experts” put them too. Not to put any pressure on you or anything, but it will be interesting to follow it through the season and see how it shakes out.

One question. The Patriots beat the Ravens when they were 3-0. That was a quality win for the Pats at the time. Now – 4 weeks later – the Ravens are ranked 18 and below the threshold to be considered a quality win. Does that mean that it’s not included anymore when figuring the Adjusted Rankings?

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 27, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Since I just started the listing, I went through current, but if I have more time, I’ll go through and run by each team. Instead of re-doing the ranking through, I’ll consider a quality win one over a team with a .500 record and a bad loss one to a team with a sub .250 record.

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*One change

I’ll only start counting bad losses after week 4 and quality wins after week 2. Kind of makes sense that way.

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

everyone’s unbeaten in week 1, lol.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 27, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also,

I’ll try and do predictions for games as well. I find that fun.

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

New Rankings

Rank Team QA Score
1 Denver Broncos 151.17
2 New Orleans Saints 148.50
3 Indianapolis Colts 127.00
4 Cincinnati Bengals 116.40
5 Minnesota Vikings 113.99
6 New England Patriots 105.69
7 Atlanta Falcons 91.70
8 Arizona Cardinals 91.20
9 New York Giants 88.83
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 86.83
11 Dallas Cowboys 83.37
12 Houston Texans 78.39
13 Green Bay Packers 77.53
14 New York Jets 73.96
15 Philadelphia Eagles 69.53
16 San Francisco 49ers 61.83
17 Chicago Bears 57.50
18 Baltimore Ravens 56.50
19 San Diego Chargers 53.00
20 Jacksonville Jaguars 50.50
21 Miami Dolphins 42.30
22 Buffalo Bills 39.33
23 Seattle Seahawks 34.80
24 Carolina Panthers 24.80
25 Oakland Raiders 22.17
26 Washington Redskins 14.74
27 Kansas City Chiefs 3.44
28 Detroit Lions 2.53
29 Cleveland Browns (0.99)
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.29)
31 Tennessee Titans (19.00)
32 St. Louis Rams (21.57)

Puts Denver at the top. Barely. A couple other flip flops, but I think that will work out in the end.

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One real issue I have...

…is how low the Steelers are ranked, but I feel like that will sort itself out in the future. I have everything set up automatically in Excel so all I have to do is input Quality Wins/Bad Losses and the rankings will re-set. I’ll try posting them every week.

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, that's where it gets interesting - seeing what happens as the season progresses

even every couple of weeks. Thanks.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 27, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nah

Steelers have shown lots of problems this year

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Oct 28, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They HAVE won 4 straight...

…including the previously undefeated Vikings.

by The Hill on Oct 28, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

are cincy really ranked higher than us? why?

by patriotguy2 on Oct 31, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guess is

they’ve beaten some pretty strong divisional rivals thus far.

Token foreign guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 1, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Updated with Picks!

by The Hill on Oct 27, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's the fun part

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 28, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What’s everyone think of these picks?

by The Hill on Oct 28, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pretty good

I picked Green Bay over the Vikings, and Atlanta over the Saints for the week 8 upset.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Oct 28, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

question

is there any way to integrate Strength of Schedule? I think that might improve on the good win, bad loss issue. If you just take their SoS into account on a weekly basis. That might drop the Colts a bit (not certain), but that would cause the Giants to plummet and the Steelers will rise a few spots (hypothetically) as well as some others shifting around. I would assume with this addition it would read something like, Saints, Broncos, Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Patriots, Falcons. Roughly estimating of course.

Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.

by AJforAZ on Oct 28, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My problem with strength of schedule...

…is that it doesn’t show how teams were playing at that point in time. The Patriots win over the undefeated Ravens was very impressive at the time, but if they factored in SoS as of now, it would only show them beating a .500 team. I think weekly updates make it more “at this point in time” instead of “season as a whole”.

Another issue is that this is based purely in Excel and I’d need a site that tells the SoS of that point in time and I couldn’t find it. Hah.

It could seem lazy, but I think I have a good enough reason for not worrying too much about that.

by The Hill on Oct 28, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SoS is "backwards looking"

Another method is to use Football Outsider’s DAVE and DVOA. It’s a decent stat that includes the quality of a team’s opponents. It’s a bit like a “rolling” SoS, but with more data behind it.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Oct 28, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs