17, 16, 10, 14, 20, 0, 7 - or why the outlook at the midway point is great

by hythlodaeus on Oct 30, 2009 7:59 AM EDT

The bye week is a time for reflection on what has happened so far in the season and how things look going forward.

Had anyone before the season offered me a 5-2 record after the bye, I would have taken it. I would have guessed, that the two losses had come in the Falcons-Ravens-Titans games, but the season never shakes out exactly as you expect.

Had anyone offered me an offensive development from shaky (Bills) over bad (Jets) and good halves (Falcons, Ravens, Broncos) to dominant (Titans and Bucs) I would have taken that too. For all the talk of 2007 and the return of Brady, some rust was to be expected. It never became a huge concern because a) Brady has continually improved his movement, accuracy and timing with the receivers and b) Belichick and the team still managed to win some games early on.

The main reason for hope, however, is the development of the defense. Last year, odd scheduling and bad luck kept the Patriots out of the playoffs, but even after the loss of Brady, the offense continued to be the strength of the team. Sure, it took some games to regroup, but at the end of the season, the offense was humming as usual, whereas the defense was getting old and slow, unable to make key stops at third down.

The numbers in the headline are points given up by the defense this year – I have taken out the pick-six against the Bills and the fumble-recovery against the Ravens – and it shows a pretty good defense, that’s only getting better. It hasn’t looked pretty all the way, but the results speak for themselves. Right now, the Patriots are sixth in yards per game and third in points per game. Considering the number of new players / starters on defense and key injuries to Mayo and Sanders, that is pretty remarkable.

Some will say the two last games against two hapless teams don’t really count. If the Patriots had won 24-13 and 31-17, I would agree, but they DESTROYED two teams, who are also talented, professional, and playing to keep their jobs. Talented, you say. The Bucs? Yes. All teams in the NFL has raw talent and making sure that doesn’t pop up, even a little, two weeks in a row, is also a sign of a great team coming into its own as the build-up for the playoffs begin. Remember, the Titans almost beat the Steelers and hung 31 on Houston, 17 on the Jets and 17 on the Jaguars. They can move the ball – but not on us. The Bucs scored 21 against Dallas and Carolina, 14 against Philadelphia and 20 against Buffalo.

The pass rush and coverage is improved from last year, and the secondary has brought more physicality and more big-play potential. Now, none of this guarantees success against top passing teams. The Broncos and the Ravens have been pretty good this year, but they just don’t compare to how the Saints and the Colts move the ball through the air. Maybe they will torch us, but even if they do, the outlook is good, because we play a lot of young guys who can improve for a rematch later.

MaPatsFan has already looked at the schedule ahead, and it looks good. There are two really good teams coming up, but I’d say we split with Colts and Saints and pick up another defeat or two along the way to go 12-4 or 11-5 and enter the playoffs with a great team on the rise. It is good to be a Patriots fan.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Improved Defense

sure brings a lot of hope…it’s starting to become enjoyable to watch the game when Brady’s not in(and sometimes it’s even more enjoyable). Hopefully we can play tough against the premier offenses.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Oct 30, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

I'm more worried about run defense than pass defense

The Pats could stand to do a better job pressuring QBs consistently, but the pass defense has ranged from respectable to dominant this year, Meriweather is emerging as a star, McGowan has been a very pleasant surprise, and Butler looks like he’s going to develop into a great corner with a little more experience. It’s the run defense that’s been problematic. They’re still 25th in the league in yards against per rushing attempt and 17th in rushing yards allowed per game despite allowing opposing teams the lowest average time of possession. Tackling has been mediocre or worse in half the games. Even the Titans, with their negative passing yardage and QBs and receivers playing so badly they couldn’t complete a pass even if the defense wasn’t on the field, nearly ran for 200 yards against the Pats.

by RSNexile on Oct 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions

Hopefully...

…we can start playing from so far ahead that teams have to abandon the run. I think the development of Tully Banta-Cain, Gary Guyton and Jerod Mayo have made our LB core a lot more solid. At the beginning of the year, I got the feeling that we were playing things way too safe because of our new and young secondary. Now that they’ve gained experience, I feel like they can handle their own and we can use more people up front and trust the secondary to do their jobs.

by Richard Hill on Oct 30, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Once the secondary gets a reputation, too,

QBs will be holding onto the ball for that extra split second, because they’ve had it drilled into them that McGowan’s a shutdown cover player or Butler and Meriweather are ball-hawks, and that’s the extra split second that turns some of those quarterback hits into sacks. Once you start getting sacks, interceptions happen, and vice-versa.

by Comedic.Sans on Oct 31, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Pass defense more important that run defense

I agree, that rushing defense hasn’t been as good, but I don’t think it is a major problem. The very fact, that the Titans could rush for 200 yards and not score indicates that it is very hard to score solely running the ball. So, if we have to choose, I prefer being able to stop the pass.

This is even more the case this year, where I don’t really think there is a team with a dominant rushing attack. Lots of teams can run the ball decently, but there is no elite team fueled by the run. It could be a very real problem in our games vs Miami, but facing the Colts / Saints and looking ahead to the playoffs the likely opponents (Bengals, Steelers, Houston, Chargers, Broncos) are all more about the pass than the rush.

by hythlodaeus on Oct 31, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

That may be fine in the regular season

But if you can’t stop the run in the playoffs, you’re going to lose. I guarantee you the Pats won’t win any playoff game where they give up 150 yards on the ground because the teams they’ll be facing — the Steelers, Colts, Broncos, and the like — aren’t going to have their passing games shut down.

And let’s be honest — not one of us is going to say “at least the Pats played good defense against the pass” if they get run out of the postseason.

by RSNexile on Oct 31, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

Giving up 150 yards on the grounds to any of these teams will be bad. But why would we? The Steelers have – much overlooked due to their roots – one of the worst running games in the league, and the Colts are no great runners either. They use the pass to open up the running game, and if we can slow down Manning I’m not that worried about Addai.

by hythlodaeus on Oct 31, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

"Why would we" is a silly question

Why would we give up 200 yards to a Titans team that could barely get their offense on the field, especially when everyone knew their passing game didn’t show up? Why would we give up over 100 yards and almost seven yards a carry against the Ravens when they threw nearly 50 times? And why would we give up 4.5 yards a carry when half the teams we’ve played haven’t had RBs who should even be able to approach those numbers against a good defense?

Pittsburgh does not have “one of the worst running games in the league.” They’re middle of the pack in yards per game, and they’re barely behind us in yards per attempt. That doesn’t even put them in the bottom 10. And that’s not too bad considering Willie Parker has been hurt most of the year, and Mendenhall is a very respectable #2 guy who is averaging well over 5 yards a carry and will likely be the #1 guy soon enough. In the meanwhile, they’re second in the league in yards per passing attempt, so if they get their running game in order by the time we would have to face them in the playoffs — and you can absolutely expect that they will — they’ll be dangerous both passing and running. Addai has had some good games against us, including during the undefeated season when he went over 100 both on the ground and receiving, and Brown is also pretty good — he’s averaging 4.6 yards a carry and will surely get more carries if Addai continues to underachieve. And frankly, if you’re counting on shutting down the Colts’ passing game, you’re just asking to lose.

In the meanwhile, the Pats gave up over 100 yards to Ray Rice when he barely got 10 carries; he’s good, but he’s not that good. As good as Chris Johnson is, everyone knew the Titans weren’t going to throw once they showed they couldn’t complete a pass if their lives depended on it, and a good run defense doesn’t allow even the best back 7 yards a carry under any circumstances, let alone when they know a run is coming. And we’ve all see all the missed tackles.

by RSNexile on Oct 31, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

he did have a couple of big runs

by patriotguy2 on Oct 31, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Guess we disagree on this

And that’s fine. Just two small things:

If you expect the Steelers to fix their rushing offense, why should the Patriots not solve their problems with defending the run? I frankly think a young defense has a lot better chances of improving than an older and established offense. (By the way – I agree I was too harsh on the Steelers rushing attack. It has improved a lot after Mendenhall took over from Parker)

Re: the Colts. I don’t expect to shut their passing attack down. I said SLOW it down, and if we can’t do that, it won’t matter one way or the other how the run is played. I maintain, that we will not face any teams in the AFC playoffs, who are primarily a running attack. IMO it is more important to play well against their greatest strength than against their complementary weapons.

Now, am I thrilled with the missed tackles and the long runs occasionally given up? No, of course not, but the huge plays sometimes obscures the overall solid play. In the Titans game there were gains of 48, 40 and 32 yards. In their other 33 attempts they rushed for 75, often running for little to no gain on first and second downs forcing Collins to throw on third and long. I could be wrong, but improving discipline and tackling to prevent long gains seems more fixable than having a defense you can ALWAYs run on for four yards.

by hythlodaeus on Oct 31, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

+1''

Jack of all trades-Master of None.....

by Yardpenalty.com on Oct 31, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The point...

…is that the Pats need to fix the rushing defense. If they fix it, they’re Super Bowl contenders. If they don’t, they don’t have a chance.

by RSNexile on Nov 1, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with this

I like our chances, because most of the trends are going in the right direction, but if the Patriots cannot continue their development, they will come up short in the postseason. This is probably true for most of the eventual playoff teams.

by hythlodaeus on Nov 1, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

All but two right now

The Colts and Saints, damn them both, are both middle of the road against the run but first and fourth respectively in yards against per passing attempt. I don’t think they can be beaten unless you can run on them and keep their offenses off the field.

Of course, the Pats’ passing offense can function like a running game, especially if Welker and Edelman are healthy at the same time. Still, we’re going to need Taylor to get well soon.

by RSNexile on Nov 1, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

As I dream it...

…Moss and Edelman on one side, Tate and Welker on the other, Watson in the middle. No one has enough defense to slow that down.

Or we can switch it up.

Edelman and Welker and Moss all on one side, Vollmer in at TE (Assuming Light is back), Watson in at Blocking TE and screen that pass to either Wes or Wes Jr. That should just bull its way into the secondary.

by Richard Hill on Nov 1, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions