New England Patriots Links 11/16/09 - Patriots Lose A Heartbreaker; Earth Still Spinning; Sun Came Up

by Marima on Nov 16, 2009 9:08 AM EST in News Comment 13 comments

Third arm's the charm. Randy Moss catches the ball - and Antoine Bethea - for a touchdown.

Mike Petraglia offers some quick hits from Tom Brady's Post-Game Presser:

"We had an opportunity to win the game. We’ve been working on that for a long time. Just came up short."

"We had a lot of good plays today. Coach has a lot of confidence that we can gain a yard-and-a-half to win the game."

"Coach is being aggressive and I love that about him. We just came up short."

"We just said we’re going. It’s a bummer. There’s a lot of football left."

"He’s thinking we have our offense on the field and we have over 450 yards of offense." Brady explaining logic of going for it.

"Up 13 with four minutes left, and you can’t close them out, that’s going to stick with us for a long time."

"We’ve got to make improvements. I know why we lost. I don’t think it’s a surprise. Play a good team and you can’t miss opportunities."

"I never second-guess coach Belichick. It’s easy to second guess."

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th down decision was statistically the right one.

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it.

You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

TEAM TALK

Patriots at Colts: Game Notes; team and player milestones reached.
Erik Scalavino Pats-Colts analysis and reaction: The 4th-down call.

LOCAL LINKS

Chris Forsberg finds some silver linings in the loss.
Christopher Price offers some snap judgments after the Patriots' 1 point loss.
Ian Rapoport recaps the Colts ability to capitalize on the Patriots' failure.
Adam Kilgore says it all came down to an eye-popping, unforgettable gamble by Bill Belichick.
Karen Guregian notes Manning picked the Patriots apart in the 4th quarter.
Gary Dzen reports the Patriots locker room feels Faulk earned the 1st down in spite of the call.
Mike Reiss gives his Three Stars to Sebastian Vollmer, Randy Moss and Kevin Faulk.
Ron Borges wonders if there is an insanity defense for football coaches.
Dan Shaughnessey skewers Belichick for that play call in his usual smarmy, insulting manner.

NATIONAL NEWS

NFL Game Center: Patriots at Colts.
Tim Graham (ESPN) Even when it costs Pats, in Bill they trust.
Don Banks (SI) Belichick's errant gamble may haunt 6-3 Patriots for entire year.
Peter King (SI) MMQB: No matter which way you dissect it, Bill Belichick made the wrong call.
Matt Bowen (Nat'l Football Post) Belichick should have trusted his defense.

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Comments

Well, at least it was not the AFC Championship game this time

There is still a lot of football to be played. I just hope that the Pats players can get over this relatively quickly.

by bbismyhero on Nov 16, 2009 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i can't wait for next sunday

If only to have this past week be history.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Nov 16, 2009 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The good news was that I was extremly convinced that we could beat the colts, and feel convinced that we could beat them still. We dominated the game until the last four minutes before a cloud of stupidity rolled over the team. As I predicted it came down to pretty much one play.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Nov 16, 2009 10:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the Colts, aside from Manning, do not scare me

Their defense is soft. Their special teams are nothing special… its that 4th quarter you have to watch out for… come to think of it… Manning really is the MVP so far since without him the Colts aren’t that great.

What I want to know is, did the coaching do something different with the Defense in the 4th? Did the schemes change? Why was the red zone defense sooo bad. Turning just one of those Colts TDs into a field goal would have guaranteed the W….

by bbismyhero on Nov 16, 2009 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

two things

1) they did play a little softer coverage in the 4th, imho. They played tightup coverage through three quarters then played off a bit in the 4th.
2) they stopped getting pressure on Manning. Early in the game, Burgess was in the backfield consistently, and they generally got decent pressure on him. In the fourth, Manning basically had all day to throw.

Both are symptoms of fatigue. With all the injuries, there is not a lot of depth and then you add in the Colt’s use of the No Huddle Offense constantly and the result was a tired Pats D.

by mmmmm on Nov 16, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one side's fatigue is another side's momentum

tough combo to beat in the fourth quarter

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 16, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yup

Again, all the more reason that going for it was probably the right call.

And letting Addai score with just over a minute left would have been the right call.

And not fumbling at the goal line would have been an even better ‘call’.

And not getting picked in the endzone would have been absolute gravy.

Aaarghh … not as aggravating as all the close ‘might have beens’ in the SuperBowl loss, but still pretty aggravating!

by mmmmm on Nov 16, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how did the DBs play

Most importantly how did number 28 Darius Butler play?

by Dubai on Nov 16, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What about McGowan?

by Dubai on Nov 16, 2009 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tough

Last night sucked not the game the struggle for me to sleep after it. That game was lost when Maroney fumbled at the one after a Brady pick we had our foot on their necks and let up we paid the price.

Some Positives though: Vollmer is the real deal shutting down Dwight Freeney is huge if we play them again.

The offense shredded that team if we play them again we can’t leave the points we did on the field however.

The Patriots were the better team for 58 minutes they just didn’t finish again.

The defense played well for most of the game but you can’t do that forever to Peyton Manning.

Not sure how I feel about this one yet but I’m stunned at the backlash Bill is getting he made a questionable call and if you ask Colts fans they felt it was the right thing to do you have to get two yards there no excuses.

If we meet again I like our chances that’s all I’m saying.

Time to settle the score and get ring number four !!

by bmeriweather1990 on Nov 16, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not surprised at the Bill backlash

He’s very good at what he does and he keeps his business as close to the vest as possible. If members of the media feel inadequate, they’ll use every opportunity to prove they’re smarter they the coach by second guessing and calling attention to how much they could run the team better.

I’d rather have a coach that takes chances – not stupid ones, but aggressive ones – and who wants to win, not just settle for having a respectable season. The players aren’t second guessing him because they’re the ones who know the mistakes they made themselves, they know the hours of work he puts in, and they know he’ll do his best (not perfectly of course) to put his team in the best position to win.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Nov 16, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's funny.

A different spot. Slightly different coverage. A little less pressure. And they get the 1st Down and Bill’s a genius.

As it is, he’s an idiot? What if he’d have punted and they still scored? Is he a genius then? Or an idiot for NOT going for it?

I’m really glad he doesn’t give a crap what the pundits think.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Nov 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed with all three posts above in this chain

the press is capricious, opportunistic and vicious. They are like vultures circling, waiting for a crack to appear.

I couldn’t even listen to the radio this morning it was so full of idiocy.

Pats Pulpit is like a refuge of relative sanity at the moment.

And BIG YES to the comment about Sea Bass. He is the real deal. He showed amazing balance against one of the most disruptive low-rushers (Freeney excels at getting bigger lineman on their heels and off-balance by attacking them from down low). With that natural footwork to go with his sheer strength and athleticism, we could be looking at the next Walter Jones / Jonathan Ogden-class of offensive tackle – if he continues to show this kind of progress. Yeah, yeah – its still early to put those kind of expectations on him. :-D

I kind of wish that they had tried to run straight at Freeney. I think that Volmer could easily have opened up big holes on that side, especially taking advantage of Freeney’s tendency to overpursue.

by mmmmm on Nov 16, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs