Do the Patriots have the most dangerous receiver in the NFL?
by MaPatsFan on Nov 23, 2009 8:56 PM EST
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintI know, Marima already used this picture in her Jets @ Patriots Postgame Thread, but it IS cool, isn't it?
In our matchup with the New York Jets, Wes Welker accounted for 192 yards of Tom Brady's 310 yard performance this past Sunday. You read that right - Wes Welker accounted for 61.94% of Brady's production. With 15 receptions and 192 yards, Wes averaged 12.8 yards per carry and a long of 43.
Fantasy sites have an interesting perspective on Wes; this from The Sportswatchers.com:
Anybody who has had Wes Welker over the past two years has experienced great comfort and great displeasure from having Welker on their team. But despite the ups and downs, you’re probably going to draft him again, aren’t you?
Basically, Wes doesn't give fantasy owners a lot of points (he's not a touchdown machine), but he's consistent. The ball is in Wes's hands A LOT for many reasons, but the most important is this: he produces. That's all that matters, isn't it? Production? And as the best slot receiver in the business today, that means moving the chains. His job has little to do with scoring the actual touchdown. However, he's the guy who sets it up.
So why was a guy like Welker missed during the 2004 draft? Says Belichick:
"We got the wrong guy," Belichick said. "Did a bad job on that. He was definitely on our radar. But you look at him, he doesn’t have great timed speed, he doesn’t have great size. He’s quick, he catches the ball, they ran a lot of tear screens, stuff like that down there at Tech.
"It wasn’t like you saw him running a lot of perimeter routes. Doing what he’s doing here, with what he was doing there, it’s sort of hard to project that."
He doesn't have great timed speed. We've discussed this before on this site - Wes is not fast. He is, however, jack rabbit quick. There's a difference. A guy like Randy Moss needs open space to get the motor running (although he IS improving in the quickness department). Wes? Tight spaces are where he owns the field. Lightning changes in direction are where Welker is at his best. Add to that incredible field awareness (both Brady and Welker seem to adjust to changing conditions with an ESP-like connection) and you have an unstoppable combination.
No, he doesn't score a lot of touchdowns, but in my cross blogging interactions with other sites, I like to ask, "Who's the most dangerous Patriot?" or "Who's the Patriot you'd most like on your team?" If Wes isn't the top answer, he's usually number 2. Most dangerous receiver in the NFL? I think so.
192 yards and 15 receptions in one game. Wow...
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Perhaps not "dangerous" but "useful"
He’s not the guy you’re going to seek out when you need a one-play, 50 year bomb. And he’s not the guy you’re going to seek out in the end-zone, nine times out of ten. What he is is a super-Kevin Faulk, the every-down chain-moving, yardage-churning freak that is super-consistent and almost impossible to take out of the game. I wouldn’t label him ‘dangerous’ just because he’s not necessarily going to get you points by himself; but the most ‘useful’ guy around if paired with someone who can get into the end zone, yes.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Dangerous if teams underestimate him
thinking that if they contain Moss and stop the big play, then they’ll be okay.
Keep the faith!
Off topic
Anyone watching the MNF game is getting an eye-full of playoff level intensity from two teams who do not like each other.
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Nov 23, 2009 9:20 PM EST reply actions
Posted
http://www.patspulpit.com/2009/11/23/1171366/mnf-open-thread-texans-vs-titans
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
That's why I don't consider him a 'danger', per se
He’s a counter-attacker and a chain-mover, not quite a weapon off his own bat in comparison to a Randy or a Reggie or a Andre Johnson. If you asked me who’ll get a lot of yards, it’d be Wes. If you asked me who’ll get a lot of TDs, it’ll be someone else. He’ll get you to the red zone, but he probably won’t get you into the end zone.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 23, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
One coach called him "death by a thousand small cuts"
That’s Wes, the paper cut of death.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Nov 24, 2009 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly
And you’d always rate the big chainsaw-wielding maniac in the ski-mask the bigger threat than the guy with the bit of sharp-looking paper, even though the end result is the same.
He makes the chainsaw guy more dangerous, which is the real beauty of the Pats system. How many other teams could cope for weeks at a time with no real 3rd or 4th receiver, injured TEs, and still have a viable pass game?
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2009 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
He's like Ray Mysterio
Jack of all trades-Master of None.....
by Yardpenalty.com on Nov 24, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
But he did
He had 11 yards rushing. Add that to his receiving yards, and he had 203 yards.
You have to wonder if it would be worthwhile to look into more football players who grew up playing soccer. I’m convinced that’s where Welker developed his “jackrabbit quickness” and ability to work so well in tight spaces.
I've wondered how well rugby players, of both main codes, would work in the NFL
especially as Belichick-style bit-part players. They might not adjust to the game straight away, but then they might provide extra value in those third-tier roster spots, as part time defence/offence/special teamers.
The ability to do a little of everything – play with the ball in hand, run, hit, tackle, punt, kick, return kicks, etc – might come in handy when injuries inevitably crop up. Hoodie has a history of coveting that kind of useful player – think Edelman, Faulk, Welk er, Vrabel, Matthew Slater, Troy Brown. He also has a history of converting non-footballers into viable NFL players – Steve Neal, to some extent Vollmer, that rookie who was a wrestler in camp early this season.
Probably never happen, but I would love to hear his thoughts on the possibility, irrespective.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 23, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
It's an interesting conversation to have
but I think you ultimately wind up going backward to go forward with any superior athlete from a different discipline. You’re one of the few rugby fans who is willing to acknowledge the violence and athleticism of American Gridiron. In my experience, supporters of the elegant violence talking about Gridiron sound like gridiron fans talking about soccer: ignorant.
I’ll always wonder what kind of a strong safety Jonah Lomu would have made. The direct cross-over potentials are limited, though, to skilled and semi-skilled positions where technical knowledge isn’t at a premium (rush DE or LB, kick returner, tail back).
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Nov 24, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Jonah would've been an awful safety - the dude couldn't tackle
He definitely had the physicality to hit, but not the technique – probably because he was 6’5 and didn’t like bending over much. He’d be like an inflexible Ed Reed, which wouldn’t be pretty. He probably make two or three big hits a game, and bounce off tackles just as often.
He would’ve been interesting as a TE/WR, though – bigger and quicker than Ben Watson by two inches and 20 lbs, yet WR top-end speed of a 10.4-something 100m sprint. The other alternative is some hybrid Brandon Jacobs-style runner who didn’t need to know proper HB routes.
I did wonder whether a guy like Dan Carter could make the conversion. He can placekick and punt, and he’s a very elusive, shifty runner like Edelman or Welker. He might even have more outright gas than either, too. Given how Belichick uses Edelman and Welker, it’d be interesting to see what he could do with Carter – at the very least as a 5th WR, backup kicker/punter with the ability to become first-string at any.
Oh, and I had the pleasure of playing against Jonah Lomu in my first game out of high school, JohnHannahRules. He was like a 6’5" slab of muscle that could move at Olympic sprinter speed.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2009 5:35 AM EST up reply actions
forgot he was that tall.
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Nov 28, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
My Top Receivers...
1. Fitzgerald
2. Andre Johnson
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Randy Moss
5. Wes Welker
And Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Ochocinco, Steve Smith (both), Holmes/Ward and Roddy White in the next grouping.
Depends what kind of route your QB is capable of throwing and tendency of OC to call
1 – deep routes – Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Steve Smith (Car), (maybe) Calvin Johnson.
2 – mid-depth seam routes, avoiding traffic – Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Ochocinco.
2 – mid-depth crossing routes into traffic – Hines Ward, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson.
4 – “long-handoff” underneath, bubble-screens – Wes Welker, (maybe) Roddy White.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Totally forgot Calvin.
I’d throw him in Welker’s 5 slot, if not higher. He performs with no one throwing him the ball.
Also have to add Jennings for the deep route.
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
Wow...we (Saints) really get no run in the media besides Brees
I hope that after this week’s game you’ll have Colston on there at least. I’m criticizing the media, not your choices. I do think Moss and Welker fit right where you have them.
by BlackandGold4ever on Nov 24, 2009 6:52 AM EST up reply actions
I know about Colston and co.
…it’s just that I compare them more to the Patriots WR Corps of pre-2007. A bunch of average, or slightly above average talent that produce because their QB is extraordinary.
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 9:25 AM EST up reply actions
I like Colston..
But I don’t think he is a top 5 reciever in the NFL, he might crack the top 10, but I would have to think about it more before agreeing to that. He is up there, but I don’t think he is better than Fitz, Andre, Reggie, Randy or Calvin.
+1
If we didn’t already have Moss, I’d be comfortable bringing in Colston as a #1 receiver. I’d love to have him lining up as our #2 on the opposite side of the field from Moss.
But he’s not a top 5 receiver. He may be some day, but he’s not there yet.
it's funny....
the saints have the best offense in the league, but ya’ll don’t respect the players that make up that top ranked team, it’s not just the receivers, the tight ends, running backs, linemen, even our QB. we are pretty good but not as good as your guys, that the story i’ve read all year, on all of these sites. the jets fans said the same thing, the gaints fans really thought that the saints were good but not as good as their team.
i think the saints have the best receiving core in the nfl. colston , henderson ,meachem, and moore make up a special group of guys, the proof is in the numbers, 10-0, not in the media’s endless dribble.
Are you serious?
We know they’re good. It’s just that they’re not top 10 good.
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
as a team.....
i think they are the best 4 deep receiving group in the nfl, other teams have one or two really good guys,but put all 4 on the field at the same time and there are none better on any team.
that’s the reason they don’t have great individual numbers, brees spreads the ball around to all of the guys, we really don’t have a # 1 receiver, we play anyone anywhere , monday night i expect moore to have a big game, he will line up and school ya’lls nickle back.
We're not talking about receiving cores...
…we’re talking about individuals. I’d agree that you’d have one of the best receiving cores in the NFL, but take any of your individuals and they wouldn’t be a #1 receiver on:
Patriots- Moss
Bengals- Ochocinco
Steelers- Ward/Holmes
Colts- Wayne
Texans- Johnson
Broncos- Marshall
Chargers- Jackson
Eagles- Jackson
Lions- Johnson
Falcons- White
Cardinals- Fitzgerald
and maybe even
Giants- Steve Smith
Vikings- Rice/Harvin
Packers- Jennings/Driver
Jets- Edwards
That’s 11 teams on my count that have better individual receivers and maybe an additional 4. That’s half the league.
Now I’m POSITIVE that every team but maybe 4-5 would gladly switch receiving cores with the Saints, but we’re discussing best individuals. No Saints are in the top 10. Team wise, they’re an easy top 5 group, but individually they’re not.
I’m sure you’re going to make the argument, “But isn’t a better receiving team more important than the individuals?”, to which I’ll say, “Yeah, no kidding, but we’re discussing individuals. We’re not talking about receiving teams.”
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
robert meachem.....
is better than most of the people on your list. if he took the snaps that moss or fitzgerald take, he would have similar numbers. i feel that he is the best of the saints guys,but he only has 3 catches in the last 2 games, i think all 3 were TDs.
andre johnson (texans) is the best individual receiver in the league
But he doesn't...
…so he doesn’t put up those number so it’s silly to try and compare someone with 16 catches to someone with 65+.
I’d have given you Colston if you wanted to argue some of those players, but Meachem? Really? I don’t know what you’re trying to do here.
Are you saying Meachem alone could be the #1 receiver on most of those teams, but he doesn’t get the reps on the Saints? Is that also implying that Henderson AND Colston could be #1s on those teams as well? Bold and unfounded statement.
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
And while I'm at it...
…I’ll throw a couple more teams into the mix:
Seattle- Housh/Burl
Carolina- Smith
You have 5 weapons in Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey and Bush out of the backfield. Together they’re awesome. Individually, eh.
by Richard Hill on Nov 24, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
it seems....
kinda hard to believe that a group that you say is in the top 5 (your words) wouldn’t have one player in the top ten.
i think meachem is fast like henderson and big like colston, he will end up being the saints #1 receiver.
colston would start in most cities,and have better numbers.
moore is the saints next best receiver ,he should get his first playing time in on MNF, after fighting the injury bug all season. he’s gonna have a big game, remember he was the saints leading receiver last year.
Why is that hard to believe?
Indy has Wayne and Clark…after that is sketchy.
Patriots have Moss and Welker…after that is iffy.
Arizona has Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston.
Houston has Johnson and Daniels.
As you’ve said, a lot of teams have 2-3 extremely good weapons, but they have a drop off after that. NOR has 4-5 very good WRs. In my opinion, they produce because:
1) Brees is boss
2) There are so many of them that it’s impossible to cover them all (Colston, Shockey, Henderson, Meachem on the same field?) while still respecting a very solid run game
I’m not saying they’re bad WRs. I’m just saying that your WR core is made up of Colston who could be a #1 for half the league and a bunch of #2s and #3s. A lot of teams would love to have that. It’s just that if we’re looking ad individuals, I’d take most of the people I listed above before taking Colston. That being said, I’m sure that your #2 and #3 receivers (and #4) are near the tops in the league.
I’m going to go by yards (I’m sure you could measure other ways, but this is easy and most other results would be the same).
Ind: Wayne, Clark, Garcon
NWE: Moss, Welker
Hous: Johnson, Daniels
Min: Rice, Harvin
Pit: Ward, Holmes, Wallace, Miller
NYG: Smith, Manningham, Nicks
AZ: Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston
SD: Jackson, Gates
Cin: Ochocinco
Phi: Jackson, Celek, Maclin
Atl: White, Gonzales
GB: Driver, Jennings
Jac: Sims-Walker, Holt
NOR: Colston, Henderson, Shockey
Dal: Austin, Winslow
Bal: Mason, Rice
Sea: Burleson, Housh
Den: Marshall
Chi: Hester, Bennett
SFO: Davis
Car: Smith
Det: Johnson
NYJ: Cotchery
Buf: Owens
Was: Moss
Oak: Miller
TAM: Winslow
Cle: Massaquoi
Kan: Bowe
Colston only shows up here @ #18 in yardage. 4 teams have 2 receivers/TEs appear before NOR’s first receiver. You could argue that Colston is better than some of the receivers above him, but you could also argue that Calvin Johnson and a couple other below him are better as well.
10 teams have two receivers with more yards than NO’s top 2 receivers and, had Owen Daniels not been injured, there would have been 11 teams. AZ has 3 receivers with more yardage.
By the time Shockey (you’re #3 shows up), only 5 teams have 3+ players with more yardage than yours.
If you had a WR in the top 10, he’d produce at LEAST in the top 15. Why? Because he’d be too valuable of an asset not to utilize. The fact that Colston doesn’t have more yardage can mean that you need to spread it out, but let’s be honest. After Shockey, a large number of teams (I counted 4-5, not including Pit who already had 4 receivers with greater yardage) pass NOR in WR production. Even though Arizona has weapons in Boldin and Breaston, they still manage to place Fitzgerald in the top 10 of yardage. Likewise for Smith, Ward, Wayne, etc. They still produce even though they have capable receivers around them. Colston is a good receiver. I just wouldn’t put him in the top 10.
by Richard Hill on Nov 25, 2009 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, and if you're interested in my rankings...
1. Johnson, Houston
2. Fitzgerald, Arizona
3. Wayne, Indianapolis
4. Moss, New England
5. Johnson, Detroit
6. Welker, New England
7. Ochocinco, Cincinnati
8. Ward, Pittsburgh
9. Boldin, Arizona
10. Jackson, Philadelphia
11. Smith, New York Giants
12. White, Atlanta
13. Jackson, San Diego
14. Holmes, Pittsburgh
15. Colston, New Orleans
by Richard Hill on Nov 25, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
i have the same top 5.....
but differ on the rest….
6.meachem
7.boldin
8.smith(car.)
9.jackson (philly)
10.rice
11 colston
12.welker
13.austin
14. ocho
15.clark
meachem has 6 tds in those 16 catches,averaging 33 yrds per
And Mike Vrabel, ex-Pats LB
had 15 receptions for 15 TDs. Getting a high strike-rate for TDs is all very nice, but it’s not the be-all and end-all for being an effective wide receiver – if it was, Mike Vrabel is the best WR in history.
It’s really hard to make a case for a guy being a top-10 WR in the league when he’s only catching 16 balls halfway through a season. Wes Welker caught that amount in the last game.
He might have the talent, but if talent alone is the main thing, and production means nothing, the Brian Urlacher might be the best MLB playing at the moment. Even if he’s currently on injury reserve. Even if he hasn’t seen the field in two months.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2009 5:57 AM EST up reply actions
do you watch the saints play.....
the saints play the game different than most teams,our guys will never put up big numbers,we spread the ball around to much.
you talk about shockey, but if you watched the saints play you would be talking about the other TE thomas, he was the leading receiver last sunday.
when talking about the saints receivers you have to go by yards per catch and TDs, it’s a better way of judging who’s best.
You can't compare Y/C between WRs...
…because some (Welker) have 60+ catches while some others have only 16 so it inflates their Y/C. Also, if you think TDs measure if a WR is a #1 or not, then you don’t really understand the position of WR.
Go by TDs then yeah, you have 2 “top 10” receivers. But then you also have no respect for the rest of the WR game like 1st down catches (Colston at #15, no other NOR in the top 40) and how they play NOT in the red zone.
by Richard Hill on Nov 25, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
i think i understand .....
it’s all about scoring points, first downs are nice, i respect them,but i’d rather a TD.
i don’t care if meachem gets 100 yds ,or 10 first downs. he could have 2 catches for 5 yds like last sunday, so long as he has the 2 TDs .
i realy like welker, man that little guy is hard to bring down. the saints are gonna have a hard time with him.
How are you going to get the TD...
…if you don’t get the yardage?
Personally, I’ll do a “mental exchange” and for every 100 yards receiving a WR gets, I’ll count it as a TD.
by Richard Hill on Nov 25, 2009 3:39 AM EST up reply actions
that's welkers job...
to pick up third and longs. catch the screens, that’s bush’s job for the saints.
brees will probably throw to 9 different guys on monday, so it’s hard for one player to get big numbers, they average 32 passes a game,so your lucky to see 4 passes come your way.
it’s rare for saints player to get10 passes thrown his way
chickens to eggs
Hey guys, the only way to compare the worth of a receiver is to check the percentages of completions of balls thrown to him. If he has a high % that means he has the ability to run his routs as designated to be open for a clean catch. And to compare individuals fairly they must have the same pass count thrown their way. Other than that you are locked into a perpetual argument.
The Pats had the most passing yards in 2006
by a bunch of no-name receivers – Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, etc. Getting a bunch of yards doesn’t mean the receivers are great – it means that the QB knows how to get yardage. The 2009 Saints are very close to this – a lot of yardage on the ground and in the air, but spread around amongst all the eligible receivers so that there aren’t really any huge standout performances. The Pats fans respect this – it’s a description of what the Pats were in 2006, and Pats fans remember it.
What you have to bear in mind is that Pats fans have clear memories of 2007. Like 2006, the Pats again had a phenomenal pass attack. Unlike 2006, the Pats had upper tier WRs – Moss and Welker. Moss got a thousand yards and a NFL record 23 TDs. When you claim elite WR status, Pats fans will think of the 2007 Randy Moss, and in comparison any WR will suffer.
It’s not a lack of respect for the 2009 Saints offence, it’s just a recognition that it is closer to the spread-it-to-everyone 2006 Pats offence that got the most yards through the air than it is to the record setting 2007 Pats offence that targeted Moss and Welker with impunity.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2009 5:49 AM EST up reply actions
Doesn't matter really
The year the Patriots won their first SB, they had 4 players picked for the Pro Bowl as reserves (Tom Brady, Troy Brown, Ty Law, and Lawyer Milloy). Two years later after their second SB, they had 3 players picked, 2 starters (Richard Seymour and Ty Law) and 1 reserve (Willie McGinest).
Sometimes the media needs to have a player shoved down their throat (playoffs, SBs) before they realize that he’s good enough to jump on his bandwagon.
Keep the faith!
Colston's hard to quantify
since he’s like a TE in some situations. He’s like ranking Dallas Clark when you discuss TEs – an in-between hybrid guy. I’m not sure what I’d qualify him as in terms of routes, so I left him on my non-mentioned bubble.
It’s not a slight on Colston; he’s alongside guys like Houshmenzadeh, Breaston, Steve Smith (not Carolina), Anthony Gonzalez, Braylon Edwards, and DeSean Jackson. All those guys are very talented, but either are inconsistent, have a significant gap in their game, or are beneficiaries of a superior QB, and that it’s hard to rank them among the real elite.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2009 5:40 AM EST up reply actions
Wes has been doing better since I switched over to the dropped shoulder pic.
I thought about using that stiff arm pic, but I don’t want to spoil a good thing.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Nov 25, 2009 3:51 PM EST reply actions
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