Brady's Struggles in Context

Let me preface this by saying that Brady has not been a bad quarterback this season, by any standards. Constantly assailed by the media for every errant pass, every interception, he's managed to put up a QB rating of 93.7 (10th in football) and throw for almost 4,000 yards (5th) to this point. He's only appeared mediocre compared to 2007, and if you're still living that pipe dream, I can't help you.

That said, at times this season, Brady has appeared lost, and in the last game against the Bills, a few of his poorer passes might have have been interceptions with a little less luck. Sometimes, he has leaned too heavily on Welker and Moss, and has tried to force the ball into double coverage, or worse. (Considering the lack of a legitimate 3rd receiver, Brady's success thus far is actually pretty remarkable.)

Why, I thought, has Brady looked utterly dominant one moment this season and decidedly average the next? Could he still be getting back to game form from the knee injury? (Well, yes, but that's not a satisfying answer.) Is he just not the quarterback we thought he was? (No, he is--again, unless you're comparing to 2007).

I was reading some articles on Yahoo! Sports earlier today, and one of them linked to a very intriguing Football Outsiders page which claims that Brady is possibly the best quarterback in the league this year. Using their defense-adjusted statistics, DYAR and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, respectively), each of which have been mentioned on this blog before, the Football Outsiders team concludes that Tom Terrific's production is among the best in football: 1st in DYAR and 2nd in DVOA, behind Philip Rivers.

Where's the disconnect? Well, there are two reasons. One is Brady's perceived struggles in the fourth quarter this season. That's not quite a myth. It's true that he hasn't been as good in the fourth quarter compared to the rest of the game, although he still has an above-average DVOA in the fourth quarter (16.1%).

The other reason is schedule. Tom Brady has played the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback with at least 300 passes in a season during the DVOA Era. He's played eight games so far against teams in the top ten in pass defense DVOA, with a ninth on the way this Sunday. [That was the Bills game.] He's played only two games against bottom ten pass defenses (Tennessee and Atlanta) with a third coming up (Jacksonville).

Essentially, correcting for the quality of defensive units the Patriots have played so far, Brady has thrown 1,882 yards more than the "average" player this season, and has been 41.8% more valuable. DYAR reflects total value; DVOA reflects value per play. Any way you measure it, Brady has statistically been stellar this season.

What are we to conclude from this analysis? Well, I'm not about to judge a player just by statistics. Call ime old-fashioned, but I still think that a big part of how good a player is can only be judged by watching him play. Watching Brady this season, it's been hit-or-miss, and I think that can largely be attributed to the lack of any passing options beyond Welker and Moss, and his ongoing recovery from knee surgery, meaning his struggles are not permanent. However, Brady has undoubtedly been much better than the critics contend, and significantly better than I've given him credit for. More important, this gives me a lot more confidence in his ability to lead the Patriots to compete in the postseason.