Jaguars @ Patriots: By the numbers

Statistics never tell the entire story.  They never give us the total intel we wish we had; any given Sunday and all that.  That's why I've given up using them to predict how a team will do during a matchup.  I do, however, have more faith in the numbers the further along we are in the season.  That's why in December/January, I like to run through the data before a game and get a basis for comparison.  Plus I'm a numbers geek.  Anyway...  I'm going to use stats from NFL.com because that's the easiest site to use.

I'll line up the stats with the opposing stat.  Ex: Total Offense: total-offense-rank vs. opposing total-defense-rank  I think yo get the picture.

Patriots Offense vs. Jaguars Defense - Total Offense: 2 vs. 20, Passing Offense: 4 vs. 27, Rushing Offense: 14 vs. 11

Jaguars Offense vs. Patriots Defense - Total Offense: 15 vs. 10, Passing Offense: 18 vs. 10, Rushing Offense: 8 vs. 15

The most significant advantage for the Patriots will be in the air; the 27th ranked Jaguars Passing Defense will have a tough day against our 4th ranked Passing Offense.  Look for some serious mismatches with Randy Moss meaning a few deep balls will get through.  Wes Welker will also have the potential for a good day in the air.  How's the Jacksonville pass rush?  Almost non-existent according my conversations with Jaguars bloggers.  An anemic pass rush coupled with a struggling secondary spells a good day for the aerial assault.

Where the Jaguars can have a good day is in the run game.  Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor's young replacement, is a superstar running back, the kind every team, including the Patriots, wishes they had.  Ranked 3rd at only 107 yards behind Seattles Steven Jackson (I'm leaving Chris Johnson out as he's a freak of nature at 1,872 yards), "Pocket Hercules" will be stuffed into the cannon and aimed straight at our rushing defense.  Averaging 89 yards per game and with 15 TDs, it's a forgone conclusion that Jacksonville would be insane not to unleash him on us.

The Patriots Passing Offense against the Jaguars ground game.  This will be a fun game to watch but to be perfectly honest, Jacksonville has very little luck in our neck of the woods and they're in the way of New England sealing up the AFC East; one win and we seal the deal.

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