Jaguars @ Patriots: By the numbers

Good post though, I think you’re right that this is a game where we actually may be better off seeing Brady throw it more then he hands it off. I’d like to see some Welker/Edelmen double crossing patterns, you’d got to figure Welker is hard enough to stop alone on one of those that at least one of them is going to be open every time they run it.

1. Patriots D-line vs Maurice Jones-Drew – Wilfork and Warren are banged up. Green is still recovering from his leg surgery. Pryor is coming off of his chest injury from last week. That means we can expect Brace to see some extra playing time this week. I think we’ll see a couple 4-3 looks, along with our 5-6 Dime Package (Boston Baked Blitz, as a Pulpit Contributor called it). Brace will be called in to take away some of the pressure from Wilfork’s ankle and, in the 3-4, give him some rest and hopefully prevent a worsening of the injury. Maurice Jones-Drew is a top 3 back in the league, not only with the run, but out of the backfield, which means he is the player Belichick will focus on eliminating from the game. If we can contain him (we can’t eliminate him), we have a much greater chance for victory.

2. Tom Brady vs Jaguars Secondary – Tom Brady is still an elite QB, even if some of his stats may be lower than expected. The Jaguars have one of the weakest secondaries in the league, yielding 7.4 yards/attempt. Opposing QBs have an average rating of 93.0, placing them 27th in the league. The only comparable team the Patriots have played are the Falcons and the Titans, both averaging around that mark in opponent QBR. What happened in those games? Very solid performances through the air and solid second half performances. The conditions will be similar to the Titans game, so hopefully we can put up a similar offensive output.

3. Patriots O-Line vs Jaguars Pass Rush – The Jaguars have 14 sacks on the year, putting them dead last in the league. To put that in comparison, our anemic pass rush has twice that amount. Despite Kaczur’s apparent attempts to lose the Colts game (low blow), we still rank 3rd in the NFL in sacks given up with 16. We need to give Brady time to throw and let the plays develop. Hopefully the Jaguars won’t buck the trend and won’t cause any issues in the backfield.

4. Patriots Pass Rush vs Jaguars O-Line – The Jaguars have given up 39 sacks on the year, placing them 7th worse in the league. We have 28 on the year, at 12th worse in the league. Someone will have to break and perform in this game. We NEED to have pressure on Garrard and force bad passes to his receivers. Adding pressure will take away their passing game and force them to hand the ball off to MJD and, according to match up #1, we’ll be trying to contain him. Hopefully we can force some turnovers to win the game.

5. Patriots’ 1st Half Offense vs Patriots’ 2nd Half Offense – This Jaguars team took the Colts to minute 60. We’ll need to perform as well in the 2nd half as we do in the 1st half in order to win this game. This match-up could also be called “Patriots’ 2nd Half Offense vs Jaguars’ Second Half Adjustments”. Will we make the necessary changes in order to continue producing in the second half? Hopefully. I’m hoping for some no-huddle offense to catch the Jaguars with bad match-ups.

If we win match-ups…

…1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, we’ll win in a blowout
…1, 2, 3, and 4, we’ll win by around 10 points after allowing the Jaguars to get back in the game
….1, 2, and 3, we’ll win a close game as Mike Sims-Walker of the Jaguards will have a good game
…1 and 2, either team can win (leaning towards the Patriots), depending on how well Brady connects with the short passes and how our running game performs
…1, either team can win (leaning towards the Jaguars), depending on how well we capitalize on turnovers and how well we contain MJD
…none, the Jaguars will win

The Patriots ground game needs to play a serious part in this play. That is the key to victory for the Pats. If they can open up the offense then there’s no way the Jags can put up enough points. They’ve only scored more than 24 points 3 times this season. The Pats scored more than 24 points in 7 of their 9 victories and scored 34 in the loss to the Colts.
If the Pats can get a couple run td’s then it’ll be open season down field.
I don’t expect the Patriots to cover the spread which is -10 points at bodog at this time but they should clinch the division tomorrow.

This is a game the Patriots SHOULD win based on the numbers and the overall strength of the two teams. Specifically Tom Brady and co should be able to take advantage of a weak Jaguars pass rush and overall pass defense to move the ball at will and score enough points to decide the outcome.

The major problem is containing Maurice Jones-Drew at the beginning of the game. If he runs wild in the first half and gives the Jaguars an early lead, things could starten going the their way.

“Patriots DE Ty Warren, who has been battling ankle problems, is scheduled to play against the Jaguars on Sunday, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.

The status of star DT Vince Wilfork (foot) isn’t as clear, though, and the team considers him a true game-time decision."

We could be seeing a LOT more of Pryor and Brace then we’d be preferring again..