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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Looking Ahead at the Remainder of '09

There is no doubting that today's loss left a very sour taste in the mouths of Patriot fans. This was a game that should've been won, but in the end, it wasn't the case. It's time for the team to go back to the drawing board, and think of other ways to win instead of going for it on every single 4th down. And while they do that, let's look at the remainder of 2009 for the Pats, as well as both the Jets and Dolphins, to see how the division can be winnable.

The remaining schedules for all 3 teams by week, as well as my take on each game, after the jump...

Star-divide

WEEK 14

Patriots vs. Carolina: There is no excuse for the Pats to lose this game. More importantly, regardless of who's the starting QB, the inexperienced Matt Moore or the extremely horrid Jake Delhomme and his 18 interceptions, the Patriot defense should take advantage of Carolina's offense. Not to mention Steve Smith has been far from an effective receiver all season. This game HAS to be won, especially since they're back on home turf.

Dolphins at Jacksonville: This game is a sure-fire coin-flip, as both teams are vying for playoff spots. Miami has gained some new-foundconfidence after today and aren't a team that dies down easily. The Jags, meanwhile, sport a 5-1 record at home and have the tendency to win almost all of their games in a really close fashion. I would feel confident pulling for the Jags. (Aside: My brother is a big-time Jaguars fan, and we went to the same high school with rookie WR Tiquan Underwood, even though we'll probably see him replacing Torry Holt in a couple of years.)

Jets at Tampa Bay: Even though this looks like the perfect set-up for another Gang Green foul up, I don't see it happening. Tampa Bay does next to nothing and are in a rebuilding mode. Plus, the Jets now have to be confident that they can sniff first place. I don't see them missing this opportunity.

 

WEEK 15

Patriots at Buffalo: This just seems easy. But it's not. I feel that the Patriots should win this one in spite of their road troubles. However, this is a different Buffalo team now that Dick Jauron has been outed. I don't think they'll lay down just like that, not to mention they're thirsty for redemption after that Monday Night embarrassment in Week One. Regardless, this game should be won.

Dolphins at Tennessee: Once again, Miami gets another coin-flip of a game, also on the road, and also could have playoff implications. Both Vince Young and Chad Henne have given their teams new life after each of their respective starts to the season. I'm hesitant about predicting the outcome, as the Titans' home record isn't as bright as the Jags', but I will say that this game should become a dog-fight overall.

Jets vs. Atlanta: I don't see the Jets losing this game, as the Falcons have suffered even more with the absence of Matt Ryan. The fact that their road record is outrageously horrendus doesn't help their cause, or ours.

 

WEEK 16

Patriots vs. Jacksonville: I think I'm seeing a theme with New England's remaining games. Each one of those games look like they could benefit the Pats, though in the back of my mind, each of their opponents could cause problems. The Pats got the home crowd on their side, but the Jags got the hunger of wanting in on the playoffs. In the end, though, I'm hopeful that the advantage of having the 12th man behind the team proves to be a benefit for the Patriots.

Dolphins vs. Houston: With their road trips over and done with, the Dolphins can cozy up at home, and it starts against a once-promising Texans squad. It may look easy for the Fins, but should the Texans be bumped from playoff contention, they'll be looking to play spoiler. But again, Miami has the home-field and plays well there, so there's no possible way they could foul up in front of their fans.

Jets at Indianapolis: This is a game that should look hard for the Jets. That is, if the Colts can keep themselves unbeaten heading up to this game. Otherwise, they'll just be resting their star-power in preparation for the playoffs. So the level of difficulty for this game depends on how the Colts do in the games leading up to this.

 

WEEK 17

Patriots at Houston: The Pats return to the site of one of their Super Bowl victories, and one where they've had a hard time making clear victories. Plus, Houston has proven to be a fiesty team that doesn't back down so easily. This one could be a challenge for our boys.

Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh: The Steelers have all but put themselves out of the playoff race, and clearly they are NOT the same team as last year's Super Bowl winners, especially with Troy Polamalu being out with injuries. Surprisingly, this looks to be a gimme game for the Fins.

Jets vs. Cincinnati: Again, the Jets draw a dominant team in the Bengals. And again, it's likely Cincy will rest it's starters depending on how soon they clinch the AFC Central. But being that it's their final home game of the regular season, the Jets don't want to disappoint it's fans regardless of what the Bengals do.

 

Of course, I am interested in how everyone thinks the Pats would do in the remainder of the season. In my opinion, I think the Pats are capable of winning the division with that kind of a schedule. But to do so, they need to do one simple thing: SHOW UP! That's all I, and every other Patriot fan, ask for.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

Comment 29 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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I also thought we were capable of beating the Dolphins...

…so my guess is as good as any. I say we finish 4-0, but if we finish 3-1, our loss will be at Houston.

by Richard Hill on Dec 7, 2009 12:41 AM EST reply actions  

I'm getting that feeling too if it's 3-1.

Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags give them a challenge as well.

Beer is good! And stuff!

by R_Adragna on Dec 7, 2009 1:08 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not a question of showing up.

The question is can they play winning football in the second half? Before this season, NE was 66-1 under BB when leading at the half. Today’s debaucle makes four games lost this season alone after having a halftime lead. I don’t know what it is going to take to fix this, but if something doesn’t change soon and NE makes the playoffs, it is going to be one and done.

"Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory...lasts forever."-Shane Falco, "The Replacements"

by Ironman63 on Dec 7, 2009 2:00 AM EST reply actions  

A new Offensive Coordinator

The offense has been stale and predictable all season. The Patriots used to be all about changing it up from Half to Half, but so far all season they have run the same offense throughout. Other teams are going in at the half, and adjusting to the offense and shutting them down in the second half.

I think the pats need to go back to old school football. The spread has too much film on it now, and their opponents are figuring out how to defend it. I am not sure if our new offensive coordinator is just new or BB is trying to call plays, or what the deal is, but he is not getting the job done. I think they need to go back to the basics. Run out of an I formation (using the running back not the fullback), Overload a side with recivers, Have your recievers run to different parts of the field, do some crossing patterns, throw some screens… run the plays that work for you.

Our line has health issues, I understand that… but letting a 3 man rush beat you, especially when the guy that got through was the guy you were double teaming is rediculous.

by Ogor on Dec 7, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I would argue against our depth.

Morris = Fragile
Taylor = Injured
BJGE = Isn’t given snaps so he’s not really counted

As of now, our running game REALLY consists of Maroney and Faulk. I wouldn’t call that depth. I wouldn’t even call our running game intimidating. Almost any team’s running backs could produce like our backs if they were given the aerial attack to go with it. In fact, I would trade running back stables with ANY AFC team, other than the Browns or Chiefs.

(Some of you may check to Indy’s or Houston’s rushing stats where their yards/game are bottoms in the league. That’s because their offensive schemes utilize their backs are receivers and they rock the screens like it’s their job. We need to do that because that’s what our backs are suited for. We don’t have a strong pound the ball RB.)

by Richard Hill on Dec 7, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

That goes to the O-line, too

I’m not sure I want a bunch of slower, older, banged up (and occasionally dizzy – that’s you, Neal) O-linemen pulling off the line to try to set up screen blocks.

At best, the play works as it’s drawn up and they’re run-blocking against linebackers – something they haven’t done particularly well so far, anyway. If they were cleanly blowing away linebackers and corners at the point of contact every time, I’d be fine with screens, but they’re not doing it, mainly due to lack of speed and injuries. The only one I can remember is that huge pancake of a corner by the third-string Tackle, which says a lot.

At worst, they’re offering opposition D-linemen a free cheap shot at Brady. Telling me that another pre-season-Haynesworth-like hit would be worth it? The 5-man O-line has had trouble keeping a 3-man rush out; I really, really don’t want to see what would happen if they started pulling guys from that 5-man front and giving oppositions a lane to the QB.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 8, 2009 2:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think pulling guys from the line...

…would be any worse than what it is now! ;)

But I agree, our poor running game lies a lot upon our O-Line. That being said, our RB’s average age is older than our O-Line’s (or is pretty damn near close). I’m just saying, if Stephen Jackson can do it with the Rams around him, or MJD with the Jags!

Regardless, our depth on offense is depleted. We have no one on O-Line, TE, WR or RB and God forbid TB gets taken out.

by Richard Hill on Dec 8, 2009 3:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Neal...

He didn’t even play on Sunday… how come he is getting so much grief. Simmons played in his place for most of that game. Here is the inactive list from this weeks game. Neal isn’t usually the weak link in the O-line. He isn’t the greatest, but he is average. The problem is you have him and Kazur next to each other which makes our right side a lot weaker than our left.

As far as the rest of the line, I think they are seriously beat up right now. It’s not an excuse, but just a statement of fact. They are not performing as well as 2007, but they are easily doing as well as 2008. We ran a lot of screens and short passes in 2008 with Cassel at the helm, and it worked out pretty well for a lot of games. What is wrong with going back to the stuff that worked for us in 01-06 and 08? We didn’t do the spread strech the field thing ALL THE TIME until 07.

by Ogor on Dec 8, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Neal's not injured per se, he was concussed

And I wasn’t picking him out, just noting that he played most of a game with a scrambled brain.

In this particular circumstance, I’d far, far prefer going back to a short slant-based pass game – I’d been advocating it for weeks. The week Welker was out and Randy was running all the slant stuff and got 100+ yards, despite a sore back, should’ve been the blueprint for the rest of the season. But apparently with Welker in the side, Randy’s only good for long bombs or something, ugh.

I’m reticent about using a bunch of screens, or at least any screens involving pulling linemen out of blocking assignments. Bubble-screens to Welker that don’t give D-linemen a chance to kill Brady I’m all in favour of, though. I just don’t think the linemen are healthy or quick enough to really use the screen effectively – it’s all risk with no reward. If they were all 100% healthy, sure. But when a lot of them are carrying leg injuries, I don’t think they’d be quick as quick, agile and able to get across/downfield to even throw those screen blocks.

They’d be in no-man’s land, and that’s unlikely to be particularly effective.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 8, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm...

I see the screen as a very effective option when the opponent stacks the box against the run (like miami did for the 4th quarter). They have too many people in the middle, and passes to the edges in those situations tend to work very well. WE threw 1 screen in the 4th against Miami and Morris took the ball 11 yards. After that we tried to pound the ball in the middle on Draws and didn’t do so well. I am one of those that agrees with the thought that the screen is just an extension of the running game.

by Ogor on Dec 9, 2009 4:37 AM EST up reply actions  

So am I

which is why I don’t tend to like it when the run-blocking isn’t going so well either. It’s like a run play (and has the same issues with run-blocking that the Pats have had thus far) that also puts Brady’s health at risk. If and when the O-line gets healthy and/or starts playing really well, I’m all for it. Until then, just go with the normal run game and keep Brady out of it, he’s struggling enough as it is without being hit any more. Ugh.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 9, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I will say this...

Right now we own the tie breaker versus the Jets:
1. Head to Head – split
2. Win/Loss in the division (Them 2-4 us 3-2)

Versus Miami
1. Head to Head – split
2. Win/Loss in division (Them 3-3 us 3-2)

So if we can beat the Bills, we will own both tie breakers and that means that we will have to lose 2 more games and either of them win out for it to be a factor.

by Ogor on Dec 7, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions  

Ohh and if we lose to the bills...

For Miami it will then go to
3. Win/Loss in common games – They lost to Atl and we didn’t.. we have to beat Houston and Jax for that one to stay in our favor

by Ogor on Dec 7, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually tie breakers look like this

Vs Miami
1) Head to head: split
2) Division: Miami 4-2 Pats 3-2
3) Common Opponents: Miami 5-4 Pats 5-3
4) Conference Record: Miami 4-4 Pats 5-4
5) Strength of Victory

If Miami wins out and the pats lose to the bills, Miami wins the afc east based on divisional record. If the pats lose to Jacksonville or Houston, Miami wins the east based on conference record. If the pats lose to Carolina it falls all the way to strength of victory which is to complicated to calculate right now.

by GeorgiaTechFinsFan on Dec 7, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

strength of victory addendum

Miami currently leads strength of victory (assuming Miami wins out and the pats lose to the panthers which is the only scenario where it matters) 52 – 50. Wins by the jets, Carolina, and Pitt increases the fins lead in this category while wins by Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo decrease Miami’s lead.

by GeorgiaTechFinsFan on Dec 7, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

That is interesting...

NFL.com had Miami at a 3-3 division record earlier today.

by Ogor on Dec 7, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

But 4-2 is right

Jets (swept) 2-0
Bills (tied) 1-1
Pats (tied) 1-1

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 7, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, good call. I started thinking there for a second lol

Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.

by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 7, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

what does that have to do with that comment?

Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.

by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 7, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Tea? China?

China tea set?

Game, set, match .

So the price of tea in China has to do with a game involving a set of matches.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 7, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

what lol

Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.

by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 7, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I have to say this is a very good write up and there for got a rec.

Although the way you have it set up is about the Patriots, I still was able to learn a lot nonetheless and enjoyed the previews for the game. Good job.

Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.

by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 7, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for the gracious compliments and the Rec.

Surprisingly for me, I was able to churn out something like this even after all the madness that occurred yesterday.

So thanks again, and tell your friends.

Beer is good! And stuff!

by R_Adragna on Dec 7, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Well I don't know that my friends

are as accepting as I am of Pats fans. I would still be upset about the loss if I was in your position, as I’m still angry about our Bills loss.

Don't question my fandominium.
"the notorious D.I.B."- samdaman
Nicky forever.

by dolphinsinbuffalo on Dec 7, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

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