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Focus on Carolina: Panthers @ Patriots

Bill Belichick is aggravated.  After a dismantling in the Big Easy and dropping a squeaker in Miami, he's miffed, PO'd, in a bad mood, grumpy... you name it.  None of it's good, especially for the players.  Like I've discussed before, Bill Belichick didn't suddenly have a brain fart and forget how to coach.  As some of you have posited, it's possible there's some coaching issues with the OC position and Bill might be taking on too much, but I think we have a talent issue here.  Looking specifically at our defense, they're young and lack the experience to keep points off the board, especially in the second half.  The offense?  They're simply not scoring enough points.  That and some blown 4th and whatevers, but we've beaten that to death.

Moving on to the Panthers...

Star-divide

Belichick's peaved, so peaved he sent four players home.  He's upping the ante and making sure players are listening.  This is it right here, I tell you what.  We need to win out to prevent Miami from crawling all over us:

Here's where the issue is -- The Patriots have four games left. If the Dolphins run the table, and it's not outrageous to think they could, then New England can't afford to lose another game. Because then, Miami will hold tiebreakers, as it did last year, and repeat as division champs.

We can't let that happen, which is why it's is so important to set a tone after 2 losses on the road.  This Sunday at 1pm ET, we face off against another NFC South team, the Carolina Panthers.  We know our AFC rivals far better than those from the NFC.  Matching up every 4 years, it's hard to get a handle on the Panthers as a rival.

Looking at their last game against the Bucs, Matt Moore struggled to establish an air game against a decent Buccaneers passing defense, going 14/20 and 161 yards, no TD's and one pick.  Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart picked up a significant number of yards, 120 and a TD, against a bottom-of-the-barrel Tampa Bay run defense.  Looking at Carolina, they're 6th in pass defense and 26th in run defense.  What does that say?

Bill, if you're listening, DO NOT ABANDON THE RUN GAME.  Pound the rock and pound it hard.  Send Laurence Maroney in as point and keep the ball on the ground.  Carolina has a very good passing D and it simply doesn't make sense to try and exploit something that may give us trouble, especially when it hasn't been one of our strong suits of late.

There'll be more to come.  For now, let's start learning a bit about this team.  Look for more info in the coming days and make sure to use the Q & A FanPost our fine rival blogger has setup.

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Comments

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Will someone show Bill O'Brien...

that there isn’t actually a rule in the rulebook that prohibits the team running the ball in the second half. Thanks.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 9, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions  

Babies can’t hold up offensive anything, get some experienced blood in their Bill!

You can't soar with the Eagles when you're surrounded by turkeys.

by Aeries god of soar on Dec 9, 2009 11:03 PM EST reply actions  

What exactly is that supposed to mean?

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 10, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

wow

I have absolutely no idea whether that was profound or idiotic.

by mmmmm on Dec 10, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

It's my youngest son

He went into detail below what he was talking about (I’ve since mentioned the reply button which he didn’t know about.)

He was likening the defensive rookies to babies and said that Bill needed to get some experience in there. I pointed out to him that, for the most part, we aren’t playing rookies because we WANT to, we’re playing them because we HAVE to.

Bottle time is over boys, time to start eating fresh meat.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Sometimes you have to be more verbose than you'd like to get the message across.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 10, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

How much is our lack of pass rush...

Making our secondary look bad? I would love to hear everybody’s opinion on that, because in my opinion, it’s the pass rush that is killing our passing defense.

by smithjoey223 on Dec 10, 2009 12:04 AM EST reply actions  

86%

No matter how well a CB can cover a WR, if the play lasts 6 or 7 seconds, at least ONE of them will get open. That’s what’s been happening. QBs can hang out and let plays develop before making decisions.

by Richard Hill on Dec 10, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

As Belichick said, they're both interchangeable

fix one side and the other gets better

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Dec 10, 2009 7:09 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

hence the operating theory behind this whole defense

BB did three things to build this year’s edition:

1) Replaced the entire backfield with (ostensibly) better deep cover men.
2) Brought in Banta-Cain and Burgess to pass rush from the perimeter.
3) Built everything on top of Wilfork and Mayo and help clogging the middle.

This defense is thus designed to stop the run up the middle, bring pressure from the wings and prevent big plays downfield. It is soft (due to overpursuit) on runs to the edges and (due to the MLBs playing tight to the line) short crossing patterns.

It all hinges on three things:

1) The offense was supposed to get us a lead, forcing teams to pass.
2) The cover guys were supposed to stay with the WRs long enough for the pressure from the wings to reach the QB.
3) The pressure was then supposed to reach the QB before the WRs could eventually get open.

The result should be that offenses would only use short passing plays and no big plays. Bend but don’t break. Classic Patriots defense from 2001-2003, actually.

For the first half of the season this is actually pretty much how the defense performed. Check the stats – very few big plays and overall scoring kept to 17 pts or less.

Then the defensive line and linebackers got hit for some injuries and that got exposed late in the colt’s game when the guys who were still playing were just plain exhausted. No pressure on Peyton ===> WRs getting wide open.

Then in the Saints game, just plain outright mistakes allowed the Saints to do a couple of early scores, preventing the Patriots jumping out to a big lead. Further, the Saints then totally shut down step (1) of the plan by dropping 7 & 8 in coverage and out-muscling our depleted O-Line. We played right into by not running draws, not running screens and not throwing to our man-covered TEs. This defense then really got exposed as not being structured to play from behind.

In the Miami game there were just plain awful mental mistakes all around, but there was a definite lack of pressure on Henne. Same result – give a QB lots of time and he’ll find an open WR.

And that, friends, is why we are where we are now.

by mmmmm on Dec 10, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Agreed

So what’s the fix? And whether it’s related or not, how ironic is it that A.T. and Burgess were two of the guys who were suspended this morning?

by smithjoey223 on Dec 10, 2009 12:22 AM EST reply actions  

Ironic, yes.

Fixable this year? Questionable. We’re missing Seymour because he usually could take up 2 linemen (along with Warren and Wilfork who held the same command). Now, his replacement doesn’t require that attention so our linebackers are being stopped at the line and can’t generate pressure. I’m positive we’ll address that in the draft.

by Richard Hill on Dec 10, 2009 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Do you think...

That Mayo should blitz more? I understand that what he can do in coverage and run stopping is great, but should he be utilized on the plus side of the line of scrimmage more?

by smithjoey223 on Dec 10, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions  

I think we should use blitz packages more...

…but he does such a great job in the middle of the field, I don’t know if i want him blitzing himself. He’s a great body who stops the plays. I don’t want to risk giving the big play because he’s in the back field.

by Richard Hill on Dec 10, 2009 12:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Part of why the MLBs in some of the old (read: good) Pats defences could get a decent blitz on...

Was that the DEs and OLBs and occasionally both could be counted on to get a decent edge-rush on. Tackles had to look outwards to see where the OLB was, and to see whether the DE was angling out and around; Guards had to keep an eye out for both DEs angling in and OLBs on stunts; the Centre got a Nose Tackle and maybe a DE. In other words, every O-lineman had to account for at least one, maybe two, and occasionally three guys, and that’s without factoring in the MLBs on blitz assignments. When a MLB came charging through, quite often they delayed a second to allow the O-line to pick the guy they’d normally block, allowing the MLB to sail through and hopefully hit the QB.

With no outside blitz, there’s very little reason for an inside blitz – the line can condense down into a tighter pocket because the Tackles don’t have to slide out to pick up the OLBs and the Guards don’t have to slide out to cover an inside rush by a DE or OLB. That means that where there might have been a MLB-sized hole, there’s a Guard, waiting for a player to come through. Not so conducive to blitzing…

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 10, 2009 2:30 AM EST up reply actions  

So do you think...

safety blitzes should be in the mix? Or do A.T., burgess, and our defensive line just have to be better

by smithjoey223 on Dec 10, 2009 1:17 AM EST reply actions  

I'd have liked to see more Safety blitzing

Whether it’s a conscious decision by Pees to not really blitz Adalius Thomas and Burgess, or they aren’t really up to it physically, the Pats haven’t been able to generate a good edge-rush. Dropping a Safety down to the line at least puts some kind of rushing pressure on the edge – Chung’s got a handful of sacks purely because he’s strong, quick and balanced. If AD and Burgess aren’t capable, maybe Chung is. It might not be entirely traditional to sub out your supposed pass-rushing OLB for a Safety in order to pass-rush, but if it works… meh.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Dec 10, 2009 2:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Safety blitzing

Safety blitzing requires an incredibly talented and intelligent strong safety, ie: Rodney Harrison. Get duped by a QB and you’re in the box when you should’ve been in coverage. It’s a dangerous game when our DB’s are struggling the way they are. Personally I’d rather see us bet the farm on a couple of young, talented pass rushers. Pressure changes everything. Just look what Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can do to an offense.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Dec 10, 2009 8:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Also how Meriweather was frozen by Drew Brees

He’ll be a fantastic safety, but still needs that QB-reading ability that comes with experience and study.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Dec 10, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry if anyone took offense to what I said about the rookie deffensive line being like babies, and that they couldn’t hold up the offense well. My apology to everyone who miss understood my meaning. If you don’t understand why I am apologizing, look at comment number two and hopefully It won’t be so misunderstood. Sorry for the confusion SlotMachinePlayer.

You can't soar with the Eagles when you're surrounded by turkeys.

by Aeries god of soar on Dec 10, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions  

no offense taken...

wish all the points I wanted to make were as clear-sounding typed out, as they were in my head, but… not always the case. Happens to all of us at times.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Dec 10, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for the encouragement, I type slower than my head thinks sometimtes. I hope to make my points more clearcut in the future.

You can't soar with the Eagles when you're surrounded by turkeys.

by Aeries god of soar on Dec 10, 2009 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

And I get finger-tied sometimes.

It’s all good.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Dec 10, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The absolute best possible fix for this defense, this year

would be for the OFFENSE to be more consistent at moving the chains.

Please go look at my list of 3 things above upon which this team’s defensive strategy is based. If you can’t rely on step 1 (getting a lead and forcing the other team to HAVE to pass), the rest isn’t going to work. This is the personnel that we have.

Staying healthy would help too.

by mmmmm on Dec 10, 2009 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

The absolute best possible fix for this defense, next year

Would be to get either of:

a) a really dominant speed rusher or
b) a really dominant big fat interior DL to complement Wilfork

Option (a) is self-evident. Option (b) is actually my pref because it would make our existing perimeter rush look way better (by sucking an additional blocker to the middle – picture Wilfork AND one other guy BOTH being double-teamed.) and it would free up Mayo and Guyton to do more free-lancing.

by mmmmm on Dec 10, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions  

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