Trade Up Theory

by CelticPride on Feb 24, 2009 7:09 PM EST Comment 17 comments

So at the top of the draft are two teams that both clearly want to improve their QB. Yes, Detroit needs to improve everything, but QB is a good place to start. As such, Matt Kiper has both the the Lions and the Chiefs picking QB's in his initial mock draft. But neither Sanchez nor Stafford are sure things. I'm not privy to the internal testing and such that these teams do, but I don't think I would use a high first-rounder on either of these guys.

On the other hand, high on most draft boards (and a player whose draft stock is improving daily) is an outside linebacker from Wake Forest named Aaron Curry. Now, linebacker is considered an area of need for the Patriots and they just happen to have two NFL-quality quarterbacks on their rosters. In a lot of respects, it would make sense for a trade between NE/Det or NE/KC along the lines of Matt Cassel for their high first round selection.

Obviously there are some contra-indicators from a Patriots perspective.

1) What if Brady doesn't come back healthy?

I don't think this is much of an issue. The Patriots are going to find some guy (whio only they know) in the sixth or seventh round who can fill in as QB backup. He will either hold a clipboard for 3-4 seasons or turn into the next Joe Montana

2) The Patriots draft board never looks like anyone elses.

This is a real concern, but Curry looks like the real deal and would definitely be a huge boost to a defense that is getting long in the tooth.

3) The Patriots don't like the high draft picks because of the contract cost.

This is the biggest counter argument to a trade. But the Patriots have been willing to shell out big bucks for free agents who were sure things and Curry looks like the real deal (at least to me).

Any perspective from a Detroit or KC fan is appreciated as well.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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FP'd

Good discussion to have! And sending a little love to the Green. :-)

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Feb 24, 2009 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trade up (swap)

Perhaps a realistic option would be swapping first round picks with a team (such as KC) as part of the Cassel trade, with the purpose of drafting Aaron Curry, while picking up say a second rounder this year. More likely than not, the prospect of pairing Curry outside with Mayo inside for another 5-10 years is probably driving wishful thinking, but…

From the trading partner’s perspective (KC), this actually may make a lot of sense. They would still get a first round pick in a good value range, with a lower cost outlay than a top 3 pick would have been plus Cassel. Another way to look at it, they’re essentially taking Cassel with their high pick, who may have more performance certainty with a similar monetary cost to a top pick, as mentioned in this post, while UPGRADING their second round pick to a low first.

by Pie McKenzie on Feb 24, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice!

Excellent thought working Cassel in there. Let’s hope Brady’s knee is ready and Matt’s a viable option. IMO, he’d be valuable to a team like the Lions who may be thinking of using a high first round pick for a QB. Cassel’s a known commodity and can bring value to his new team and the Pats.

Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Feb 24, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

given all of today’s speculation, this scenario isn’t looking so crazy about now

by Pie McKenzie on Feb 27, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From a Chiefs fan

We’ve talked about Matt Cassel maybe a little bit over at Arrowhead Pride :)

Though many of us do want Cassel, the general consensus is that we wouldn’t give up our 3rd overall pick for him. I’d love to package something along the lines of a 2nd rounder and Larry Johnson, however. Still, I don’t see that happening either.

You all know as well as we do now that Scott Pioli hasn’t gone after QBs high in the draft before so I don’t expect him to make that move this time.

by Joel Thorman on Feb 24, 2009 8:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just heard the Chiefs let Huard go

Think they’ll pick up a third QB behind Thigpen and Gray, or a Cassel to play ahead of them?

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 24, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not quite sure yet

Still a little iffy on Thigpen. Really, though, we’re just starting to get used to how Pioli works so I really have no idea.

by Joel Thorman on Feb 24, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

It’s kind of amusing seeing some of the members over there at AP complain about how secretive Pioli is, I have to admit.

by NESilver on Feb 24, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rule Number one on Draft Day

Don’t let other teams know what you want.

by CelticPride on Feb 24, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but it's been Bill controlling the draft

We think…

Also, this wouldn’t be drafting a QB early, it would be paying for a veteran – which Patriots have done.

by CelticPride on Feb 24, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My scenario

I think I posted this somewhere else around here. The Lions trade their #20 overall from Dallas to New England for Matt Cassel, and then take an OT with their #1 overall (probably Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith, as Andre Smith seems to be dropping lately).

That gives them a foundation on offense of Matt Cassel, Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, and their future LT for years to come. They can then use their other draft picks to focus on their defense, which also needs a lot of work.

The Patriots with the #20 and #23 this year would be awesome.

by NESilver on Feb 24, 2009 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It would be scary for the rest of the league for sure

Considering that they value late first round picks as much as top 10 picks.

by Joel Thorman on Feb 24, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A better scenario

I believe this would actually be much better for the Patriots than having to pony up for the #1 or #3 pick.

by hythlodaeus on Feb 25, 2009 4:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That makes much more sense

Cassell put up very good number, but he played for the Patriots. There’s a lot more talent here than there is in either Detroit or Kansas City, and there is every reason to believe Cassell’s numbers wouldn’t be as good for either team. Stafford and Sanchez aren’t sure things, but neither is Cassell on a team that bad.

But because he is a better bet than either Stafford or Sanchez, Detroit would be wise to trade their #20 for him and take the best OT #1. Or even smarter, trade the #20 for Cassell and trade down from #1 to #10-15 and get a few more picks. They’d still be able to get their starting OT and they’d be able to fill more holes in their lineup.

In fact, I think the #20 for Cassell would be a steal for Detroit.

by RSNexile on Feb 25, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs