The draft: should Patriots package to move up?
by MaPatsFan on Apr 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT
in New England Patriots News
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PrintOne scenario I've heard floated around is for the Patriots to package two of their early draft picks to move up in the draft. Knowing full well that 12 rookies can't make the team, this is a decent strategy to kick around. Check out the full draft order, but to get an high first rounder (Top 10 being my definition of high), keep in mind a team with one of those picks would expect 23/34, 23/47, or 34/47.
Now, the question is what do we do with a top 10 pick? If everyone is available all of the time, the discussion is easy. Well, I'll pick an elite OLB, then an elite ILB, then an elite OL... Unfortunately, there's 31 other teams. :-) They're grabbing players and pulling them off of the list with every pick. That and there seems to be a run on certain positions, OLBs to be specific. In all the mock drafts I've participated in, they've gone the quickest. By the second round, your into the #4 or #5 at that position.
That being said, I'm going to stick my neck out and say any package deal to move up will be for an OLB, specifically a strong pass rusher. Pressure in the backfield makes quarterbacks nervous and forces offenses to scheme on them by double teaming in most cases. That pulls the second player away from something else. A strong pass rushing OLB can be a very disruptive force on a 3-4. A guy like Aaron Curry or Clay Matthews would work well for us.
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Reading through a lot of commentary on the overall quality of this draft, it seems like the consensus is that it is fairly weak with “elite” prospects in the top 10 range, but very strong/deep with late first to early third round talent. One comment that stuck out for me was that it’s virtually impossible to distinguish between guys in the 20-45 range.
While we’ve all seen general draft pick trade value charts, obviously they are both year and player specific. The low grades placed on this years’ top tier picks, combined with the (perhaps) increased focus on the cost of signing top picks, may have lessened the cost of moving up to acquire a top ten/fifteen pick relative to prior years.
I’d be in favor of using any combination of 2nd rounders to move up. I’d also be in favor of using our tradeable (non-compensatory) 3rd rounder (#89) and/or our 4th rounder (#124) in a package with one of our 2nd rounders to move up.
I forget the details, but isn’t there not only a cost difference but also a # of years difference in 1st vs. 2nd round contracts?
Looking at the complete Pats roster, they have approximately 65-70 guys signed right now, with a 53-man roster and 45-active gameday spots. It looks like it will be extremely difficult for more than 4-5 guys to really crack this roster when you look at the guys they’d be displacing. My estimate of current Pats who would be fighting for roster spots include (16 of these 23 guys would have to go to get down to 53 players if you include 4 draft picks):
Skill positions: Guttierrez, BJGE, Aiken, Slater, David Thomas, DeVree, Listorti
O-Line: Connelly, O’Callaghan, Britt, Yates, Al Johnson
Front Seven: Jarvis Green, LeKevin Smith, Titus Adams, Vince Redd, Eric Alexander, Bo Ruud, Tully Bantu-Cain
Secondary: Wilhite, Richardson, Williams, Spann, Ventrone
A # of tough decisions in there among the guys least likely to be cut: Aiken / Slater / Ventrone due to ST value; Wilhite / Richardson / Redd / Yates / O’Callaghan on potential; Green / Smith / Britt as solid backups who know the system.
All that said, I’d be in favor of moving up to the top ten if Aaron Curry somehow slips into the 8-10 range, I’d be very interested in the 8-15 range for Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU) who by most accounts is the second coming of Richard Seymour and the only surefire 3-4 DE in this draft, and if BJ Raji is out there (and Jackson gone), I’d look at him past ten as well. One thing to consider is that it may take moving up a little to get Darius Butler, if the Pats do in fact target him.
To shorten my comment and add something I forgot – I don’t think the OLB’s in this class are really worthy of a top ten pick. Outside of Curry, Tyson Jackson and BJ Raji, I see no need to trade up to a high pick.
From what I’ve read, there’s a lot of mixed opinion on the Brown’s, English’s, Cushing’s, Matthews, Maybin’s, etc… As much as Belichick referenced Larry English by name early in the draft process (and he got Willie McGinest’s endorsement), could be a smokescreen, similar to Larry English last year. While obviously coaching up goes into any projection, none of the supposed elite OLBs strike me as a sure-thing worthy of a high-pick. If its OLB that’s targetted, I’d rather see a “take what you can get” approach at 23 or 34. The Sintims, Barwins, Cody Browns, or whomever drops out of that list of five above seem like reasonable value at those picks or in some cases, much later.
by Pie McKenzie on Apr 19, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
In principle, I'm against making a deal to move up.
However, certain situations come along where it’s worth it. For Pie, it’s Raji, Jackson and Curry. I think the Pats planned well for this year’s class and are looking to use the first and three seconds to add depth to an aging/changing team.
I will say that I would love to see Jarrett Dillard in the third. I think he’d be there and he’d be a hell of a target for Brady.
Too many picks
There is no way of adding 11 more players to the roster. If every pick this year is drafted, half those guys will have to be let go before the season. So, some picks should either be used for moving up this year or to acquire picks next year.
Personally I would prefer the second option – how about #34 to Denver for their 1st next year? that would be money in the bank coming back with interest – but if Belichick feels there is a great player out there, I will definitely not be secondguessing him.
Looks like Foxsports is getting story ideas from Pats Pulpit
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9458362/On-the-Clock:-10-potential-draft-day-shockers
8. The Patriots trading up … again. Never count Bill Belichick out. In a draft in which the Patriots have six of the top 100 draft picks, they could package multiple picks to move up in the first round for a player they really have their eyes on. Prospects the Pats could be intrigued enough by to potentially ship the 23rd and 34th picks for? I’d think Texas terror Brian Orakpo, USC linebacker Brian Cushing or Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins might all be worth the bounty. Knowshon Moreno sure would be scary in a Patriots jersey, too.
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