Drafting for 2010 free agency: who should the Patriots worry about?

by MaPatsFan on Apr 21, 2009 8:35 PM EDT in Opinion/Analysis

I'll admit it, I'm probably as sick of draft analysis as you are, maybe even more, but that's the NFL event within touching distance at this point. What Belichick will do is anyone's guess and is kept close to the vest; like divulging the formula to your favorite beverage, Hoodie would be a fool to leak anything he doesn't WANT leaked. About the most telling thing he's said in the past few days is that a package deal to move up is not out of the question. This, from his most recent presser, gives us something to nibble on:

It is standard operating procedure this week to contact other teams - or be contacted by other clubs -- in gauging possible trade interest. Belichick said there has already been discussions with teams "who see our multiple picks and have interest in acquiring two for one."

We've discussed this on this very site in the story entitled The draft: should Patriots package to move up? and I think it's a foregone conclusion it will happen. Why? With 11 picks, it's unlikely 11 rookies will make the roster; why not use those picks to move up or trade them for 2010 picks? Ok, so now let's get to the meat of this story.

The New England Patriots are moving into the 2009 draft with no glaring holes to be fixed. At least, that's this blogger's opinion. We could field a team right now and not be too worried. Sure, we'd lack depth in some areas, but that's not what's got me worried. What has my shorts in a twist is the need to get rookies in key positions so they can a) learn the system and b) learn from the vets. Why is this so critical? At least nine key starters have contracts ending after the 2009 season:

Name	Position	Salary
Kevin Faulk	RB	$2.9M
Stephen Neal	G	$2.5M
Nick Kaczur	T	$2.2M
Vince Wilfork	NT	$2.2M
Richard Seymour	DE	$6.0M
Ellis Hobbs	CB	$2.5M
Tedy Bruschi	ILB	$1.9M
Pierre Woods	OLB	$1.5M
Stephen Gostkowski	K	$1.0M

Leigh Bodden is certainly a concern, but may be less of an issue in my mind as we may be deep enough at CB. Belichick and the front office have to make some decisions NOW about who they plan on retaining and who they'll let hit free agency. Those decisions will affect this year's draft as Belichick needs to get a rookie under the tutelage of a veteran for at least a year.

Look at this from the perspective of free agents in 2010. Who will we retain? Where will we create depth just in case someone hits the chopping block? Let's hear what YOU have to say.

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Faulk is either gone or taking a big pay cut. The alternative is that Maroney gets cut.

Neal and Kaczur will probably be resigned unless they make huge salary demands, but look for the Pats to pick potential replacements for them in the second and third rounds anyway, especially if Duke Robinson is still on the board late in the second.

Seymour and Wilfork are no brainers, and someone (Moss? Brady?) will end up restructuring a contract if that’s what it takes to make it possible to resign both.

Bruschi will probably retire if the Pats win the Super Bowl.

Woods has a live-or-die season coming up. He’s either going to stake a strong claim for the starting job or he’s gone.

I don’t know what to make of Gostkowski. He’ll get a lot of attention from other teams, but I’m sure the Pats will make a fair offer.

Hobbs is gone if last year’s CB picks develop.

by RSNexile on Apr 21, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

I would think that an LT has to be a priority soon as well, even if Light is not a 2010 FA.

by Pie McKenzie on Apr 22, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Not all FA's to be are equal

As I see it, we have three major FAs next year: Seymour, Vilfork and Mankins – unless the year will be uncapped, in which case Mankins will not be a FA. They are the best players and the ones that will be most heavily sought after on the market.

Vilfork positively will have to be resigned. Working under his rookie contract he deserves a new deal and he is still relatively young at a position where players age slowly. Seymour is probably even better in terms of pure talent, but he has nine seasons under his belt, has missed some games with injuries over the last years and has perhaps lost a step. I could see him go if he demands a ridiculous payday next spring.

The rest of the crop is less troublesome: They will be resigned at market value or let go. I would really like to keep Faulk, who aside from Brady is the most clutch performer on offense IMO, and Gostkowski, who is a reliable field goal kicker with great kick-off ability.

What does this mean for this draft? Free agency or no free agency for Mankins, we need to draft an offensive lineman or two. Some might leave, others are getting older and we need to groom replacements.

Secondly, if Seymour is actually nearing the end as a Patriot, the player to target is probably Tyson Jackson from LSU. I don’t see him there at 23, but if he is on the board when the Saints step up at 14 a trade could happen. They could use extra picks after trading for Shokey, so for at swap of 1st rounders and #47 overall we move up and grab a new DE.

by hythlodaeus on Apr 22, 2009 3:09 AM EDT reply actions

I’d add Gostkowski to that list as well. He’s been highly reliable in an impossible task (replacing Vinatieri). Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour and Gostkowski. The other guys may be replaced prior to that point simply in the course of upgrading.

I would think that the Patriots need BJ Raji and Tyson Jackson to both be there at 12 in order for Denver to pass on Jackson and have him be available at the Pats pick at #14. Cleveland and Green Bay are both likely targeting 3-4 help, which may make it tough. As a Pats fan, got to be hoping a lot of OL/QB/WR go early.

by Pie McKenzie on Apr 22, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Pats are definitely holding off with the soon-to-be FA signings

until after the Draft and maybe until they can more definitively sense which direction the wind will be blowing in 2010. Either way, the Patriots will do well signing Wilfork, Mankins, Gostowski, Faulk and Hobbs.

It’s hard to say with Neal because I like the guy but he had that nagging shoulder issue last season and I’m not sure of his durability. Woods just signed, and I’m betting that this will be Bruschi’s last year. That leaves Kaczur and Seymour who I’d like to keep too but will have to wait and see what shakes out.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Apr 22, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

they should try to keep Mankins

if you think about the draft, if you trade 4 picks just to say get? Andre Smith or Michael Oher is not good, Mankins is a probowler and lets see that the Eagles were going to use either the #21 or #28 on an offensive lineman so at least they will not worry about that now. Wilfolk and Seymore will be way too expensive, Maroney will be gone and Faulk will leave through free agency. Kickers, are a dime a dozen.

by kdogg702 on Apr 22, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions

Gostkowski

I don’t agree with the common idea, that kickers are a dime a dozen. Studies by football outsiders have shown, that field goal accuracy is volatile from year to year but not kick-off ability, and Gostkowski has been in the top of the league in the latter category for several years.

This is important for field position giving the coverage teams less returns to stop (touchbacks) and the defense a longer field to defend. This does NOT mean I want to make Gostkowski the “best paid kicker in history” but to me he is definitely an above-average performer at his position and well worth keeping.

by hythlodaeus on Apr 23, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions