In the first part we discussed how long draft picks of the last 13 years stayed with the Patriots. We will now focus on the development of the players, and doing this I will use two categories: Games on the active roster and games started. This reflects that most players make their first contributions on special teams and in specific sub packages. Some never make it past this, others develop into regular starters. Of course, this is a bit unfair, since the contribution of certain of players can never be measured by how many games they start. (The best example I can think of is Kevin Faulk. He has only started 35 games over the years, but that is to be expected from a pass-catching third-down back. He is waaay more valuable than the games started indicate.)

As we all know few rookies start from day one, so we will first analyze the impact of a typical draft over time.

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This is how a Patriots draft on average contributes over time. Generally numbers after year 6 are problematic due to a small sample size - and the late rise is the result of Tedy Bruschis games being divided by a smaller number each year.

Some things stand out. First rookies are expected to contribute from the get-go. The number of active games tops in year two, but it is almost as high in year one, where four rookies are active each week. After year two the number declines and it drops off dramatically after year three. As discussed earlier, this is the time when a lot of mid-round picks are let go. Second, the number of games started rises until year three, where the average draft yields what amounts to two full-time starters. Looking at improvements from last year is not just about this year’s draft, it is about the development of players drafted in 2007 and 2008. Third, the gap between games active and games started dwindles over time. Every team needs role players and special-teams gunners, but these spots are mostly reserved for young prospects. If they want to stick around they have to develop into starters by year four, or they will be replaced by the next batch of hopeful youngsters.

So far, I have focused on how players contribute in each year after they were drafted. Now I will turn to the quality of individual drafts. When did the Patriots nail it – and when did they miss

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Most of these drafts are still “active” – only the 1997 and 1998 drafts, which were not that good anyway, have dried up entirely - so the numbers will go up. Interestingly, 1996 was an extremely good draft, even though much of the contribution came before the Super Bowl years. However, the rest of the drafts of the 1990’s didn’t yield much, paving the way for the Belichick regime. He has presided over two truly great drafts: 2003 (Ty Warren, Dan Koppen, Eugene Wilson, Asanthe Samuel) and 2005 (Logan Mankins, Nick Kaszur, Ellis Hobbs, James Sanders). Less impressive is 2004 (Vince Wilfork and Benjamin Watson) and 2006. It was not all bad, though. Gostkowski has done well and Maroney could still develop. David Thomas, however, is probably on his way out with Alex Smith and Chris Baker coming in.

The jury is still out on the 2007 and 2008 drafts, but what can we expect next year? Let’s try to compare them with the early years of other drafts.

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Well, the outlook for the 2007 draft is not good. In fact, there really is no other draft bad enough to make a reasonable comparison, though it should of course be remembered, that the Patriots only drafted Brandon Meriweather in the early rounds, and he is coming along nicely. 2008 is better. The numbers suggest a development along the lines of the 2000 through 2002 drafts. That is, not great, but not bad either. Jerod Mayo established himself last year – much like Seymour in 2001 – and we should expect the rest of the group to step up as well. Perhaps the Crable / Wheatley / Wilhite group will yield another starter when the inevitable injuries start to kick in?

In the last part I will focus more specifically at the development of players, based on the round they were drafted in. As everybody is probably aware of, we drafted FOUR players in the second round. According to pretty much everyone the second round is where you findd value at a discount. But has it been true?