Tom Brady and the Lost Season

by ProfessorTodd on Jun 6, 2009 10:59 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

There's been a lot of talk about Tom Brady's return in 2009. But what about what was lost when Brady went down last season and missed a full year of playing in the prime of his career? What kind of effect might that have on his lifetime stats? The smart folks over at Cold Hard Football Facts thought about that question and projected what Brady's lost season might mean in this excellent article that offers a lot of food for thought not only about how the stats and season awards might have been different but also about what Brady's injury meant to the Patriots and their chances to add to their legacy in 2008. Good stuff, and something I think everyone at Pats Pulpit will want to read.

And for the definitive statement on why Tom really is better than Peyton don't miss this excellent article from their archives.

Is it time for football yet? I can't wait.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Good read is right!

Brady is that important a player. While it’s a bit of a stretch to compare given the different makeup of the team today, we’ll get to see how much of a difference Brady makes in 2009, given a healthy knee of course.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Jun 7, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They make up stats for a season

then talk about how great he is as if the season actually happened. It’s homeristic autofellatio.

and here’s a great rebuttal to their Manning-Brady article that I contributed to.
http://18to88.com/2008/12/a-complete-and-utter-refutation-of-cold-hard-football-facts.html

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

actually they aren't really praising themselves, so it's more just Brady fellation, than auto

but I just like that word (it’s appeared 10 times on the entire SB Nation Network and 2 of them were me)

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What utter

and sheer hogwash. Of course Brady missed out on some stats by missing a season in his prime. wtf? That’s hard to comprehend?

As far as “A Complete and Utter Refutation of Cold Hard Football Facts”, that is hardly objective and is flawed in the extreme.

Such as; “They site the snow game with Oakland as one of Brady’s finest performances. He had a QB rating of 70 that day. True, NE won the game thanks to a pair of dramatic field goals by Adam Vinatieri, but note that Brady actually played WORSE in that game than Manning did the year before in the Miami game that the Colts lost.”

Was there a blizzard in Miami that day? What you clowns fail conveniently and repeatedly to mention is that Brady has played his whole career at the mercy of the weather, and Manning plays mostly in a dome.

The entire piece is rife with autofellatio.

I consider both Brady and Manning as all-time great NFL QBs. I suspect most will give Brady the nod as being better although the book will not be written on that for at least 5 more years I would say.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They make up a stats line

then say look see it’s better than what Peyton won the MVP with, YAY Brady.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they give Brady a line that's significantly above any season except 2007

look at Peyton and Marino’s seasons after their 48/49 TD years, they drop back down to their previous production even with the same cast around them. Seasons like Brady’s 2007 are outliers. A perfect storm of skill, cast and good fortune.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reason is

Brady’s previous numbers were with some warm-body WRs. I suspect they felt his numbers would be higher with Moss and Welker, and rightly so.

But it doesn’t matter. Manning will blow Brady away with all-time numbers. If for no other reason Manning is destined for that because of the conditions they have played/will play in.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Peyton and Marino didn't keep up the numbers with the same casts

why would Brady

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They didn't

plug in him keeping up the numbers. They had him dropping significantly in yards and TDs.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

still way out of wack with his career numbers

and above what the rest of the league was putting up.

10 points higher than his pre-07 best QB Rating,
10 TDs more than his pre-07 best (which would be a top 10 TD season in NFL history)
Lowest INT% of his pre-07 career
Tie his pre-07 high Comp % with over 100 more attempts

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if they had given any kind of reasoning for the projections instead of just pulling them out of thin air

Let’s assume that Brady – already fourth on the career passer rating list – would have turned out a very, very good season in 2008 had he played, but that he would have fallen short of all of the marks he put up in his signature 2007 season.

Let’s assume, then, that Brady’s 2008 production looked like this:

Actually Kurt Warner moved ahead of Brady last year, so Tommy is actually 5th, but then they go on

Even though it’s well off the pace of 2007, this projected 2008 season would have been a statistical behemoth of a performance.

OH REALLY, THE NUMBERS YOU PULLED OUT OF THIN AIR FOR YOUR FAVORITE QB WERE EXCELLENT. WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT?

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They were

trying to make the point about how much the missing season will affect his final numbers. They had to put something there, and I think a drop-off yet still good numbers is reasonable to make that point. Maybe he would have thrown 55 TDs. We will never know.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

…the additions of Moss and Welker in 2007 may have had just a little to do with Brady’s improved numbers that year. It stands to reason that while he probably would have fallen back to earth a little in 2008 had he played the whole year, he would still have put up better numbers than in seasons prior to 2007 simply because he finally had world-beating receivers.

by RSNexile on Jun 8, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marino did throw 44 touchdowns two seasons later.

Just a FYI

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by DolfinPhan on Jun 11, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But Brady in his best didn't throw for more than 29......

30 "Phinsider Fued" Points..!!
"What's the point of getting in a sword fight with a guy you can run away from?" - Chris Doleman

by Alpha6 on Jun 13, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't see anything hypocritical about throughly praising a game with a QB rating of 70

while calling a game with a rating of 82 a playoff choke job.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 7, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that's not what they did.

“CHFF said: Manning struggled against the Dolphins and, in a game that lasted more than 70 minutes, was a non-factor.”

The refutation said; “The truth: THERE IS NO WAY THIS GAME WAS MANNING’S FAULT.”

They didn’t say it was Manning’s fault. They said he was a non-factor. Not at all the same thing. Nor did they call it a choke job.

And again, Brady’s 70 came in abysmal field conditions. Do you factor that at all?

So, no, I don’t see anything hypocritical about CHFF’s analysis.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction.

They called it two things. They said he was a non-factor, them summed it up as a choke job. Very poorly done on their part. So I would ask them; which are you saying it was?

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice job of speculation

but that is just what it is: speculation. Avoiding injuries is a skill – which Brady usually excels at – so it is meaningless discussing what could have been achieved if they had not occurred. Laurence Maroney might be the best back in the league if wasn’t injured half the time – but he is, so he isn’t the best back in the league.

Even though I could see Brady having the season lined out, I really find it hard putting the Patriots in for another ring. There were some major holes in our defense last year. Even if we had made it to the superbowl, I’m not at all certain we could have handled the Cardinals. They played really well in the playoffs and there was a reason we had to rebuild our defensive backfield this year.

by hythlodaeus on Jun 8, 2009 5:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tough time to be a Colts fan

We should probably all be understanding with Colts fans these days. No Tony Dungy, no Tom Moore, no Howard Mudd, no Marvin Harrison.

Nothing to cling to except the myth of Peyton’s superiority and that one lonely championship in a sea of first round playoff losses.

by ProfessorTodd on Jun 8, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep

It will be really, really interesting to see if the Colts can keep their smooth machine running with all the changes in the coaching staff.

by hythlodaeus on Jun 8, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Moore and Mudd will be back as "consultants"

It remains to be seen what type of access they’ll have during gameday.

Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit

by MaPatsFan on Jun 8, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Irsay came out the other day and said they are coming back in the same roles

just different titles

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 8, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

My team isn’t the one that missed the playoffs last year and hasn’t won a title in 4 years.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 8, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wah?!!?/ Wah?!!?

With a backup QB no less…..

by gusmanchu on Jun 10, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the Marvin Harrison that Colts fans grew to love

was gone as soon as Addai landed on his leg 5 games into 2007.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 8, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not at all.

I think I speak for the majority when I say that we are very much looking forward to this year.

A few reasons:

1) I think Caldwell will bring a little edge that Dungy lacked (I love Dungy, but a little fire in the belly is good, too)
2) We have some DTs now that will make Freeney, Mathis and Sanders even more scary
3) We drafted a RB who held the NCAA record for rushing yards last year – I prefer using two backs, will help both of them avoid injury
4) We have Saturday back and hopefully we will have Lilja back as well – Our O-line will hopefully return to form
5) Our new DC is tweaking things, I like it
6) Mudd and Moore aren’t going anywhere

and, finally, as much as I love him, Harrison was only a shadow of his former self last year. We essentially have 3 WRs with Wayne, Gonzo and Clark..

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jun 8, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs