Brady, Manning and the weather.

by BabeParilli on Jun 7, 2009 7:36 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

There seem to be endless comparisons of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Surely they are the two top quarterbacks of their generation and will be considered among the best to ever step on a field when they retire.

But let's look at some numbers regarding "where" they have played. It is a factor don't you think?

Brady passer rating: Indoors - 104.7 (10 games)

Manning passer rating: Indoors - 100.4 (97 games)

Brady passer rating: Outdoors - 91.9 (103 games)

Manning passer rating: Outdoors - 88.3 (79 games)

Brady passer rating: Windy - 89.7 (43 games)

Manning passer rating:Windy - 83.1 (26 games)

It seems clear, in all these conditions, Brady exceeds Manning in passer rating. Draw your own conclusions.

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I’ve always suspected this to be the case, and these stats back it up. Brady is a more efficient passer than Manning, but Manning plays indoors more frequently, mainly because of the home turf thing. If you had snow ratings too, those would be great. Of course, I’m still happy that Gillette is outdoors, because the Patriots are better adjusted to the elements come January, whereas the Colts… are not.

"It is what it is." - Bill Belichick

by 108 on Jun 7, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

This is a very interesting comparison – even if the number of Brady indoor games is smaller than you would like for a meaningful analysis.

(And btw: that is a remarkably low number, but I guess most of the dome teams are in the NFC)

by hythlodaeus on Jun 8, 2009 5:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I promise not to start an argument

Because we will just circle in place, but I have two questions:

1) Why didn’t you include Playoff numbers?
2a) What classifies a game as “windy”?
2b) Where did you find weather data? I’ve been looking all over for an easy to find source.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 8, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Answers

1) They weren’t available from the source.

2a) It is not defined.

2b) Yahoo of all places. They have a very good stats section. “Situational stats” and “Split stats” are both exceedingly interesting. I’m sure you will enjoy them.

by BabeParilli on Jun 8, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds good, thanks

Brady’s only really played in 9 Regular Season games indoors, but has played 4 playoff games indoors, losing 2 of them. It bumped his rating down to 98.9 including those games. Manning’s is an almost identical 100.8 including 7 playoff games.

Outdoors, Brady is almost identical at 91.4, while Manning drops down to 86.5.

Thanks for the tip on Yahoo as well. Some really good stuff in there.

NFC North and NFC South writer for SB Nation's NFL Draft blog: Mocking the Draft

by mgrex03 on Jun 8, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ANY/A

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is a better stat than QB rating because it’s more complete, less arbitrary, and gives a output with actual meaning. The formula is (Yards-INT*40+TD+10-Sack Yards)/(attempts+sacks) it gives you a measure of how many yards a QB gains per dropback.

Brady:
Outdoors: 6.06
Indoors: 7.07
Windy: 5.83

Peyton:
Outdoors 5.46
Indoors: 7.12
Windy: 5.62

With a more complete stat the picture isn’t as clear as QB Rating makes it seem. It doesn’t solve the problem of Brady’s tiny indoor sample size, which would be the best evidence for your case if the number was on a better sample.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 8, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mgrex hit me up about the ANY/A calcs

I may have screwed up the calcs on at least one, and I definitely didn’t use the PFR standard formula for ANY/A (it’s 45 for INTs and I think they recently finished up some research that convinced them to use 20 for TDs)

I’ll re-do them if this thread doesn’t end on the agree to disagree note below.

Change these hundreds for me cashier, Cuz I ain't made it yet, but I'm better off than last year
And what it look like hun', I ain't never made it rain but it look like fun
-Drake, Still Drake

by shake n bake on Jun 8, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quarterback rating

is heavily dependent upon yards per attempt according to the arcane formula. I believe there is no formula that can really tell the true story when it comes to quarterbacks.

Who is better? Who cares.

The difference between Brady and Manning is paper thin. There are so many factors that affect such a close pairing. I am content to admire the excellence of both. They will be gone before too many more years I suspect. Their like may not come along again soon. Meanwhile, I’m going to savor the spectacle of seeing these two great quarterbacks play.

When starting this I just wanted it to be a reminder that Brady has had to deal with adverse conditions more often than Manning. It seems fair to keep that in mind.

by BabeParilli on Jun 8, 2009 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Something doesn't add up

If Brady leads Manning in QB rating in both indoors AND outdoors games, shouldn’t Brady have the higher career QB rating? Well, I’m not quite sure if the numbers BabeParilli threw up in this post were including playoff games (if they were then I can understand how Brady is leading Manning), but if they weren’t including playoff games his source have to be wrong since Manning is ahead in Career QB rating.

Can someone explain to me what’s going on?

by jocre on Jun 23, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Different number of games

Because Manning plays indoors at home and Brady outdoors at home, the number of games in each setting is not the same. (97 vs 10 indoors) Both have higher ratings indoors and because Manning has more of those games, his overall rating is higher.

by hythlodaeus on Jun 24, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

The bulk of Mannings games are indoors. The bulk of Brady’s games are outdoors. Manning’s indoor rating is better than Brady’s outdoor rating, so his overall rating is higher.

That’s really the point of the whole thread. Manning’s passer rating is higher because he plays indoors.

by BabeParilli on Jun 24, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs