Around the AFC East: Rating the wide receivers
by MaPatsFan on Jul 24, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintThe second to last entry in our Around the AFC East series is rating the wide receivers. From a Patriots standpoint, this will be very, very interesting. We can't, in general, go by last year's performance as Tom Brady was not at the helm. In addition, I still have looming questions about how Tommy Terrific will perform on the field. I know many of you have told me not to worry, that there are plenty of other things to worry about, but I can't help thinking if I did that, I'd be burying my head in the sand. No offense to anyone with a contrary opinion; I have two daughters and am, by nature, a worry wart.
Looking at the NFL statistics for yards-per-game in the passing game, an AFC East team doesn't even hit the list until #10 and that's Miami. However, Miami did post well in other categories like average yards per catch (6th) and completion percentage (1st). If you're a believer in Football Outsiders, their DVOA puts Miami at 6th. The biggest question is, "How will Bady do?" I hate to be a homer, but is that not one of the top three questions AFC East teams are thinking of? Ok, maybe I'm a super homer to think everyone's thinking about the Patriots, but c'mon...
- New England Patriots - It's extremely hard for me not to put the Patriots at #1 in the wide receiver ratings. The QB has a LOT to do with it and not taking into account Brady's return is...well, suicidal. Both Wes Welker and Randy Moss have stated they think this year's team is better than 2007 simply because they didn't know the playbook as well. Read whatever you want into that, but it says to me that these guys have experience in the system and that's a valuable thing. Joey Galloway is an open book - I simply don't know what he can accomplish. I do believe, however, Greg Lewis will be a wildcard in this receiver corp. I have a feeling he's a going to break out.
- Buffalo Bills - The Bills have a serious player in Lee Evans and at 16.1 yard average per carry, he's a contender. Add to this...wait for it...T.O. No, I don't think T.O. is the second coming. I DO think he is a capable receiver who is on a mission to prove himself. Between these two, I think Buffalo is more than capable of doing some damage. Are the other receivers in their roster that are worth noting? Sure. But the tandem of Lee Evans and T.O. could be very deadly this year.
- Miami Dolphins - As stated above, the Dolphins did very well last year. There were no standouts, but they did their jobs. Unfortunately, because there were no standouts, I don't think they'll be as high in the rankings as they might have been with a Brady-less Patriots and a T.O.-less Bills. There was a lot to be gained by Brady not being around and T.O. ensconced in Dallas. The Landscape is different today.
- New York Jets - I know Jerricho Cotchery. How about a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez? They're betting the farm on a rookie, but I don't see another alternative for the NYJ. They need a starting QB and are willing to pay for it. Sanchez will, most likely, have a very tough year in 2009. He may become a threat in 2010 IFF he has some skills. If he can't do it with Coles and Cotchery, his future may look dim.
There it is gang. Check out Buffalo Rumblings, The Phinsider, and Gang Green Nation for their ratings on wide receivers.
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Laverneous Coles left the Jets via free agency. Feel free to delete my comment once you make the edit.
Playing Realistic Optimist at Buffalo Rumblings since 2008. Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.
Rating receivers or passing games?
I really don’t think Brady is a factor in discussing the quality of the wide receivers – but he obviously matters for what the Patriots will get out of them.
To me, there are two really good units and two really bad units in the division. The Bills and Patriots are loaded, the Jets and Dolphins are bad. We can debate the 1-2 ranking and 3-4 ranking but the gap between 2 and 3 is still the most profound.
I agree the Patriots are better than the Bills. Moss and Welker complements eachother better than Evans and Owens, and I really think Owens started slowing down last year. But the Bills might have better depth since I don’t share your optimism on Galloway and consider Lewis a questionmark.
At the bottom I would take the Dolphins over the Jets. Cotchery is probably the best on those two teams, but the Jets don’t really have anything else after losing Coles.
by hythlodaeus on Jul 24, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Couldn't agree more
When offensive lines were rated, was the mobility of the quarterback or the ability of the RB to “hit the hole” or break tackles taken into account?
by bluecollarbuffalo on Jul 24, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
the Pats and the Bills are definitely superior at the WR position as compared to the Phins and Jets. Lee Evans is going to have a great year as he finally has a legitimate WR lining up with him. what can you say about Moss and Welker, they are a great pair and make that offense go (after Brady of course).
Fair points
My line of thinking was the QB plays such an integral role with the success of receivers that it was hard to ignore that connection. I do get where you’re going, though.
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
Agree
There is obviously a connection. We should know that very well since Patriots receivers doing well with Brady has continuously flopped elsewhere.
OK....
But his current receivers have been good elsewhere….
by bluecollarbuffalo on Jul 24, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
If I was a fan of a team with arguably the best quarterback in the league and was charged with ranking my team’s wide receivers I sure as hell would try to incorporate the QB, that would give me seemingly legitimate reason to place my team first.
I don’t think it’s fair to pick and choose ranking criteria though, if I remember correctly you did your RB rankings based on last year’s performance (thereby ranking your team first there as well) and now you’re doing WR ratings based on potential for next year (once again ranking your team first).
Don’t get me wrong, I think you have a very legitimate claim for having the best WR in the division – you certainly have the best passing attack, no one could sanely argue against that. All I’m saying is that I think if you had used the same logic (potential for next year) for RBs your rankings might have been different.
Now I feel bad for dredging up past rankings so I’ll conclude by saying, though it pains me, that I think the Patriots 1-2 are the best in the division and that with Lewis, the third option is probably at least as good as any other third option on any other team. I can’t see any way to really say the Patriots receivers aren’t the best in the division.
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
Tied
I think the Bills and Pats are tied in terms of pure WR quality. Moss is clearly the #1 receiver in the division by far. I think if you just look at the starting 2, the Pats are #1. But, Josh Reed is the perfect slot receiver and there is the potential to get better as well with their 4th and 5th receiver (Hardy and Johnson). Roscoe Parrish is….well, he’s Roscoe Parrish. He’ll score a jaw dropping touchdown in week 4 and then that will be the last anyone will hear from him on offense. I think its too close to call. Either that, or I’d like the Bills to actually be #1 at something (besides years w/o a playoff birth) in the division.
by bluecollarbuffalo on Jul 24, 2009 8:50 AM EDT reply actions
Patriots are...
still the division’s best offense, all hands down.
Their running game isn’t the strongest, but the passing element definitely is there.
As for your concerns about Brady, I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over it. As a Dolphins fan, I recall Dan Marino’s 1994 season, his first back from a major knee injury. That year he put up over 4400 yards. Given the talent Brady is surrounded with, I have no doubt that he can easily put up >4000 yards. My real concern would be depth. Can they get by with O’Connell, Edelman, or Gutierrez as QB? Who knows, but then again, no one believed Cassel would grow into a starter either.
This is a better WR unit than the one that lead to that record breaking season in 2007. You should be more concerned about your running game. But a complete season from Maroney and Fred Taylor might change that opinion.
NYJ’s WR situation is worse than you stated. Coles left to Cincinnati, leaving them with only Cotchery. MIA’s WR’s have plenty of upside, although there is little in the way of proven talent. Pennington’s accuracy makes up for a lot of talent shortfall’s here. Buffalo has a really solid WR corp. The problem is 1. their QB—is Edwards more than just average? He has the intangibles, but can he put his game together? and 2. their o-line. Lots of young talent here, nothing proven. No passing game can get going without quality QB and o-line play
as a dolphins fan, i think that is a fair assessment on the phins
no standouts, but they did their jobs. however, id like to ask if miami did have a standout like moss or TO… would your rankings change? i guess it depends on definition of standout and who it is… but say we got a guy like boldin or marshall (these names have been frequent discussions over at the phinsider)… thanks
El Peezy... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
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"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC
by el presidente 00 on Jul 24, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
or if ginn emerges as a top WR
El Peezy... "the Calvin Johnson of rookies.. instant impact" -Prime Time
"el peezy strikes fear in opponent bloggers hearts" -finsx
"El Peezy is a man of the people...Don’t hate the player – hate the game." -KC
by el presidente 00 on Jul 24, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Pennington has experience throwing to Moss
New England and Buffalo have game changing wide receivers. I’d definitely put Miami in the top two if they had a wide receiver that you had to game plan for. Pennington is annoyingly accurate.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 24, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Closing the gap
IMO Boldin or Marshall would close the gap, but still place the Phins a notch below Buffalo and NE. Fitzgerald would make it a threeway discussion.
idk about that
Fitzgerald and Ginn
Moss and Welker
T.O. and Evans.
That order seems about right, but no knocking on Moss and Wes. Probably the best 1,2 punch in the league opposite of Fitz and Boldin.
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
Suck it Pats, Bills and most of all... the god damn jets.
Supporter of the Bash Brothers- Wilson and Bell.
yeah but that wont happen lol
Moss and Welker are the best in the AFC
Sooooooooooo
Tom Brady plays wide receiver now? Kind of a bogus (and I do mean biased) analysis if you have to evoke other positions (and “knowing the playbook”) to analyze a position. Why don’t we consider what type of turf they’ll be playing on, while we’re at it? I understand you want to put your team at the top, but Buffalo has 1a and 1b along with 3a, 3b, and 3c. Any impartial person knows Buffalo’s receiving corps is more talented than New England’s. Way to mail it in there, PatsPulpit… but I’m marking this one “Return to Homer.”
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
You can't completely leave the QB out of it
It’s a valid point, but I understand it’s not the main point. I forget where, but remember reading about the fate of Peyton Manning’s top two receivers in college. They both got drafted based on their production in college but were out of the league fairly quickly, mainly because Manning wasn’t throwing to them anymore.
Keep the faith!
You can’t completely leave the QB out of it
if your rating the WR’s, as in this exercise, then you most certainly can completely leave out the QB.
why is this so difficult to understand?
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 24, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
also if there is no QB you dont have WRs
so the QB has to be in the discussion
no it doesn’t
Put the Bills WR’s then the Patriots WR’s on the Lions and which is better?
If you bring Brady into the discussion why are we even bothering with this exercise? He’s hands down the best QB in the division.
We’re talking WR’s here folks – not offensive lines or QB’s. If Boomer is throwing passes who is the better corp from top to bottom?
we’re NOT TALKING ABOUT TEAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 24, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
the Pats are still better
moss and welker did great the last 2 seasons there only in NE with 2 different QBs
also Cassel had never played with them in a game till week 1
Difference of opinion
I don’t see how you can exclude QB play when talking about WR’s. How do you gauge their contributions? Watch them running around the field doing drills?
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
Peerless Price was one of them and he did pretty well in Buffalo
"I don't agree with a damn thing you say, but I would die for your right to say it."
by ForeignArrow on Jul 24, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
So Gang Green and the Phinsider are NE homers?
I’m fine with putting Buffolo first, but saying it is that clearcut a choice would be too much. I think there are legitimate arguments either way.
absolutely arguments either way – but let’s focus on the WR’s and nothing esle. because thats what we’re looking at here
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 24, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
if you have have an unproben QB Moss and Welker still are great
Welker will get at least 100+ catches maybe over 130 and over 1000 yards i think around double digit TDs
and Moss will get close to 100 catches and 15 TDs and at least 1000 yards
Patriots receivers have a record setting pair.
I don’t know how they wouldn’t be number one. Overall, I agree with this list. The Bills shot up to number two with the addition of Owens, and the Jets have fallen to the bottom with Coles leaving to Cinci.
I'm a Dolphins fan
but you nailed it Ma.
Moss and Welker make it easy for any QB to play. Buffalo has an awesome duo as well.
Behind is Miami, with no standout #1 (Ginn possibly this year) but probably the best depth at the position.
NYJ are a clear cut last. Cotchery is subpar but if he is double teamed I doubt anyone is scared of Mark Sanchez looking to Brad Smith for TD’s
Laces out!
-2008 AFC East Champions-
Suck it Pats, Bills and most of all... the god damn jets.
Supporter of the Bash Brothers- Wilson and Bell.
Here's to hoping Ginn becomes that standout
Both Ginn and Turner have been turbing heads, and you cant sleep on Davone Bess(AKA Welker 2.0)
Like I said on the Phinsider our corps has to prove themselves,
Current Phinsider Feud Points: 23
Camarillo
What’s the word on Greg Camarillo coming back from his torn ACL? I remember he was doing pretty well for you guys up until the injury.
He looked quick during mini camps apparently
I think Bess or Turner will take a majority of his snaps if he isnt 100% come September
Current Phinsider Feud Points: 23
The last report I saw said
that he was looking pretty good, and was working out more and moving faster than the trainers expected him to. It’s kinda looking like he might be pretty close to 100% by the start of the regular season.
"Why don't you put that in a memo and entitle it 'Shit I Already Know'!" - Sarge from Red vs. Blue
9 "Phinsider Feud" Points
We'll see what Belichick thinks of your receivers.
In the week before Miami, if he mentions Ginn, Turner, and Bess. He’s game planning for them. If he groups them in the “a bunch of other guys” category, then not so much. I think Ginn is an up and comer, don’t know much about Bess. I’ll have to do my homework.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 24, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
great sig
I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying
by J2 on Jul 24, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Some people become smart enough to realize the depths of their ignorance....
Most never make it that far.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 24, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Objective assessment.
Would a completely objective QB want to throw to Moss-Welker-Galloway-Lewis, or Owens-Evans-Reed-Parrish? I’d have to go with the former.
Owens and Moss had comparable stats, but Moss had 25% more first down throws. Why? Owens wasn’t as reliable a target, and had issues with his hands.
Welker and Evans have comparable stats, too. But Welker is coming off consecutive years with ridiculous number of catches; Evans was good, but had less yards total and less yards-after-catch. I’d go with the form player.
Reed’s younger than Galloway, but Galloway’s stats tell a story – he gets a third again the yardage for every catch.
Lewis and Parrish seem to be on a par, with perhaps a slight edge for Lewis, with the added being more yards per catch.
also
moss has most TD in last 2 seasons
TO most in last 3
but only 4 more then moss
so id rather have a guy with 34 tds in the last 2 with 2 different QBs the the guy with 38 with the same QB in 3 seasons
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