New England Patriots: How Likely is 16-0 Again?

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 7, 2009 6:46 PM EDT Comment 26 comments

Hello, Patriots Fans! Many thanks to MaPatsFan for being gracious enough to allow me to share this post with you. Hope you enjoy!

Tom Brady and Randy Moss (via i85.photobucket.com)

Two years ago, the New England Patriots had a historic regular season, the first team in NFL history to go 16-0. In that season, they also set the record for most points scored in a regular season. They were only seconds away from finishing the season with an undefeated Super Bowl championship, which would have made them the second team to ever accomplish the feat. With Tom Brady returning from a torn ACL, are the Patriots poised to pursue perfection again?

More... Based on 2008 records, they will face a tougher overall schedule this year than last. The combined winning percentage of 2008 opponents was 0.480. Coming into 2009, the Patriots’ Strength of Schedule is ranked 3rd with a 0.590 winning percentage (also based on 2008 records). Since teams change from year to year, this schedule may not be as bad as first indicated, but at this point, it appears that the Pats face a significantly tougher schedule than in 2008. In fact, looking back to 2007, their SOS in 2007 was 0.469, based on their 2007 records. So, they faced a tougher schedule in 2008 than 2007, and 2009 looks to be harder than both. At first glance, it would appear that they face a tall task in repeating the glory of 2007.

In this post, I wanted to break down the Patriots’ 2007, 2008 and 2009 schedules a little further to get a better understanding of what they are up against this season (much the same way I had in this post on the Falcons and this post on the Cowboys). Taking my raw data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, I have compiled the Offensive and Defensive rankings of the Patriots’ opponents from 2007, 2008 and 2009, broken out in the following 4 categories:

To read the rest, please click here.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Comments

Even though I'm a diehard Pats fan...

…I just don’t see it happening. Anything below 13-3 would have to be considered somewhat disappointing though.

by Justin_Bobo on Sep 7, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it can and will happen... The odds are against us but...

We’re getting Tom Brady back, we added some good free-agents over the off-season and made some good trades, and also I feel that we have a huge chip on our shoulder… Actually our whole shoulder is pretty much broken off after losing to the Giants and not making the playoffs last year.

We have something to prove and we are going to prove it with the greatest NFL Season and Team ever (knock on wood)!!

by Mike-Dub on Sep 7, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

needed syemour for 16-0

Man I miss him

It may be now..it may be later...later aint gonna be no use! Am I right Al? We got alot of angry guys in their black panthers,muslims, young lords, besides you average anti-socials. We gotta go in, am I right, clean their clocks!

by Peter Chung on Sep 7, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This all is depending on Tom being healthy (Knock on wood on).

by Mike-Dub on Sep 7, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as we win the Super Bowl though I'll be happy!

by Mike-Dub on Sep 7, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im hopin we lose some games for once. im tired of winning so much. i’d rather just stick to winning super bowls. i mean who cares if we beat the bills week 1 and lose the superbowl. i’d much rather just do enough to win the division but go deep into playoffs with a greater chance to win. 19-0 is too much pressure. (or was that just the giants defensive line pressure)

13-3 win division + super bowl champs works for me
18-1 makes me lose sleep

by bforce3 on Sep 7, 2009 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

word

14-2 13-3 w/ SB victory!!!!

by Peter Chung on Sep 7, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are so right

I never, ever lost sleep over the Patriots until 2007. Way too much pressure – and I’m just talking about on the fans let alone the team.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Sep 7, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

tough games

include Colts, Falcons, Saints.

If our secondary struggles than I imagine we’d drop a few. And honestly, as sweet as 19-0 would be, the anxiety being unbeaten is not good for our hearts. Let’s lose to the Falcons and then go 18-1 ;-)

But I’ll be happy just to be in the playoffs again.

"These players, a lot of other people didn't believe in them, but they believe in themselves. And that is all that matters."- Bill Belichick

by Mainiac on Sep 7, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll only be happy if we win the Super Bowl... If not it will just be another wasted season.

by Mike-Dub on Sep 7, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed. colts are not likely to be big prob. steelers might pose a threat. but injuries happen. who knows who could be the next victim in the league.

by bforce3 on Sep 7, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Falcons

I think the Falcons could surprise a lot of Pats fans when we play them week 3.

by Justin_Bobo on Sep 8, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After that.. I don't see any one else who will be a threat other than the teams not in our division that we won't have to face in the playoffs and someo of them we won't even have to face in the playoffs.

by Mike-Dub on Sep 8, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry that we won't have to face in the season and some of them we won't even have to face in the playoffs.

by Mike-Dub on Sep 8, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very likely.

by NESPORTS on Sep 7, 2009 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gotta wait and see..

Am hoping even though it is a lot of pressure.. That it is 19-0 at the end of the season. If it is a n 18-1 season let it be during the regular season. Granted it is a lot of pressure but if BB and the coaching staff can keep that off the players minds.. Well i would like to see them finish what they tried to do in 07.. No more arguments about the team of the decade. I believe it is already sealed as the Pats.. But this would be the icing on the cake so to say.. No one would be able to say squat about em not being it period.. Man what a celebration that would have to be! LOL

by whizzkydd on Sep 7, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the division is ours once again, with at least 12 wins to go with it.I’m not worried about the offense.I want to see how well the defense gels this year with a lot of the veteran leadership leaving.

by ThaGreyHoodie on Sep 8, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Slim to none

16-0 has only happened once in 30 years so it probably won’t happen again this year. I’m still optimistic about the season, though.

by hythlodaeus on Sep 8, 2009 2:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They can go 8-8 for all i care, just as long as they bring home that trophy at the end of the season.

I’m not too worried about nyj with rookie sanchez at qb. Not worried about Miami bellicheck wont let the wildcat kill us twice, and Buffalo with TO doesnt scare me especially with his turf toe issues.

In Kobe we trust!

by robi s on Sep 8, 2009 2:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What might be more pertinent,

to such a comparison is what the toughest opponents on their schedule this year, based on their wins last year, had for a record in 2007.

Take the Ravens for instance. They were 11-5 last year. But they won only 5 games in 2007. So, their schedule last year was likely soft, thus contributing to their impressive 11-5 record. Miami is another example. Carolina and the Jets are other examples.

I don’t know if the Pats will go 16-0 but I do know they can beat every team on their schedule if they play smart. That’s the rub. It’s difficult to go out 16 times and not do something stupid. The talent is there.

I’m thinking 14-2.

Warm up the Duck Boats!!!

by BabeParilli on Sep 8, 2009 5:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ravens

You may be right about the Dolphins, but the Ravens played one of the toughest schedules in the league last year. The AFC North played the NFC East and AFC South, so I believe the AFC North had 4 schedules ranked in the top 10.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 8, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is Strength of Schedule

Ravens had 4th toughest schedule last year based on 2007 records. Their final SOS ended up being 0.516. The Dolphins final SOS was 0.461.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 8, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was speaking

as a general rule. But upon further inspection the Ravens played 5 games last year against teams that had a significant drop in wins from the previous year. That is nearly one third of the entire schedule. Cincy, Cleveland and the Jags all faltered compared to the previous season. That accounted for nearly half their wins. It gets very complicated as you look deeper. That’s why I keep it simple. But your point is well noted.

Warm up the Duck Boats!!!

by BabeParilli on Sep 8, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points

The only caveat to Cincy and Cleveland is that they also faced tough schedules, and they had tons of QB injuries (I think the Browns started Ken Dorsey by the end of the season, who, IIRCC, wasn’t even on the team at the beginning of the season). But, still, you’re right, those four teams accounted for 5 of the Ravens 11 wins.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 8, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs