Patriots vs Ravens: Points for Victory
by Richard Hill on Jan 8, 2010 1:10 AM EST
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Welcome to Patriots Playoff Football!
Back in our rightful place as AFC East Champions, our New England Patriots are about to embark in the Decades final playoff run. How we do in this playoff will solidify our spot as team of the decade, but we must turn our focus to this Wild Card game against the Baltimore Ravens before turning to the next round and our chance at history. This will be a rematch of our Week 4 game that came a dropped ball away from a Patriot loss. However, both of our teams are different from how they were at the beginning of the year.
The Patriots got a solid performance out of Tom Brady (258, 66%, 8.1 yds/c, 1 TD, 0 INT). We had 3 backs run for 25+ yards (Freddy, Faulk and Morris). We utilized our TEs, WRs and RBs in the passing game (3 WRs had 25+ yards, 1 WR and 1 TE had over 35 yards). However, this was Freddy's last game until recently. Morris was taken out the next week. It also wasn't until recently that we started using our TEs in the passing game again. Tully Banta-Cain had yet to emerge as a pressure in the pass-rush game. Our Defense wasn't as solid as it is now and our younger players had yet to emerge. I believe our team, even without Wes, has become more well rounded in all facets of the game.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have evolved as well. In the early season, Ray Rice, their stud RB, would get around 10-12 carries a game. In the second half of the season, he's been getting 15-20, peaking with 30 against Pittsburgh. Flacco, their sophomore QB, came out of the gates quickly throwing from 26-47 passes in the early season. He's been pulled back, a la Sanchez, not throwing over 30 passes in the last 4 weeks of the season. The Ravens are a rush happy team, which doesn't bode well for us.
How are we going to beat the Ravens? Find out after the jump!
What do we need to do to defeat the Baltimore Ravens?
1. Stop Ray Rice. That's right. Not Wes Welker related. Ray Rice is such a game changer (over 2000 total yards on the year, 1300+ rushing, 700+ receiving) that eliminating him is just as important as stopping Maurice Jones-Drew. He is the engine behind their offense. In his game against us, he rushed for only 11 times. However, he rushed for 103 yards with those carries. He received 5 times for 49 yards. If we can corral in Ray Rice, we will force Flacco to the air and he WILL make mistakes. 8 of his 12 picks have come while away and only 9 of his 21 TDs have come away. Stopping Rice will help us tremendously.
2. 2nd Half Output. We've scored 10+ points in the second half in only 3 of our last 10 games. We've scored 10+ second half points in only 2 of our 6 losses. We've held the lead in all but 1 of our games this season, including the half time lead in 5 of our 6 losses. We need to get the lead and NOT give up in the second half. Stop playing prevent defense in the second half. The teams we're playing are too good to give them opportunities to move the ball down field. Be creative in the second half. If we know what plays are coming on offense, so do the Ravens. We need to step up our game in the second half in order to win this game.
3. Find a substitute for Wes Welker. Edelman has some HUGE size 83 shoes to fill. However, I believe that Edelman won't have to step up and do a Welker impression. He will only have to be a 66% Welker. Since we've been using our TEs in the passing game again, Welker hasn't been needed as much as a diversion. He's been able to make plays. With Welker in the line-up, our offense was Welker and Moss, with a run game (MAYBE). With Welker out (and I'm not saying him out is a good thing), Brady will be forced to NOT look to Welker every pass, but instead spread the ball around. I believe that our WRs and TEs must combine their offensive efforts in order to be a substitute for Welker. No one player can take Welker's place. This is a team sport. Everyone must try.
4. Discover a running game. We have Morris and Freddy back. Maroney has gone AWOL, but he has been jotted down with a bum knee for the past week or two. Faulk has remained healthy, but he is not a workhorse back that we need to keep the Ravens' defense honest and keep them from stacking the secondary. Maroney usually heats up in the playoffs so hopefully he will make a big return for us. Freddy's been doing well and ran well in his real comeback against the Texans with limited reps (which is all he SHOULD get in the playoffs). Sammy Morris did well against the Jaguars, but has been very inconsistent. However, he remains an extra veteran body if needed. Faulk will be a threat in the short passing game, but he might be needed to run. Running will give Brady time. That's what's needed. Control the clock and we can make the Ravens resort to the passing game more than necessary.
5. Stay Healthy. Our O-Line and D-Line must remain healthy throughout the game in order to win this game. Warren and Wilfork have been taking breaks the past couple of weeks in order to get as healthy as possible for this wild card game and they will be an integral part of this defense's attempt in slowing Ray Rice. Our O-Line, on the other hand, needs to stay healthy so we don't have to resort to our second stringers. We need Tom Brady off the ground and with plenty of time to let plays develop. Vollmer needs to be playing instead of Kaczur. Neal and Light need to be healthy. So must Koppen and Mankins. Without Welker, we'll need extra time to get the receivers open- Brady won't have his 100% outlet option every time. The O-Line needs to stay in the game for that to happen. A clean bill of health will not only help us this round, but down the round too. We cannot afford anymore injuries.
Bonus: Win the turnover battle. In our 4 losses, after the Colts game, we've turned the ball over two or more times. We've won the turnover battle in only 2 of our past 7 games. We need to force Flacco to make mistakes, force Ray Rice to fumble the ball and lose confidence. We need to capitalize on their mistakes and score TOUCHDOWNS and not Field Goals. Brady needs to not throw interceptions attempting the long ball when it's not needed. We need to limit the fumbles in the red zone. We need to force more than we give in order to win.
If we win match-ups...
...1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, we'll win by around 10 points.
...1, 2, 3 and 4, we'll win by 7-10 points.
...1, 2, and 3, we'll win by 3-7 points.
...1 and 2, we'll win by 0-3 points.
...1, the Ravens will win by 0-3 points.
...none, the Ravens win by a 3-7 points.
Players to Watch:
1. Julian Edelman: He doesn't have to be Wes Welker, he just has to draw enough attention away from the other players on offense to allow a collective group effort be our Wes Welker.
2. Our O-Line: The Ravens tacked 3 sacks on Brady in the first match-up (with Kaczur, not Vollmer). Brady needs to stay cleaner this game for us to win.
3. Our Secondary: How will they handle the Ravens' offensive weapons? Leigh Bodden needs to eliminate Derrick Mason on his own (possible), while whoever plays opposite (Probably Springs) will need to do their job as well. McGowan will probably be called upon to limit Todd Heap. Everyone needs to be able to stop their opponent alone in order for us to stack the box and stop Ray Rice, as well as have our front seven apply enough pressure on Flacco on passing downs.
My Prediction: Patriots 31 - Ravens 24
My Statistical Prediction: Patriots 20.6 - Ravens 10.7
Go Patriots!
The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.
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Method for Statistical Prediction:
I use my Quality Adjusted Rankings for my predictions.
Patriots Quality Adjusted Score: 91.38
Ravens Quality Adjusted Score: 74.33
The team with the higher score is the one that’s favored.
Home Team: 100 * Home Winning Percentage
Patriots: +100
Away Team: 50 * Away Winning Percentage
Ravens: +18.75
I divide the favorite team’s score by the unfavored team’s score:
Patriots: 191.38
Ravens: 93.08
191.38/93.08 = 2.06
And multiply it by 10 to get the Favored Team’s score of 20.6.
To get the other team, I find the difference between the two initial scores:
Difference: 98.30
Divide it by 10 (to get 9.83) and subtract it from the Favored Team’s Score to get 10.7
No, there isn’t a mathematical reason behind it. No, it hasn’t been proven. No, this probably won’t happen. But why not try and use my season’s data try and get something?
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great points....where in God's name did u get these stats?
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
the stats from ur 1st comment
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Oh...
…and I believe that we won’t be able to contain Rice- just slow him down and that we’ll only get 7-10 2nd half points. That’s why I think we’ll only win by 7.
Hire OC.
Hill,
if the Pats go either 4 or 5 wide on a play…who do you want in as your WR
for me its : Moss, Elderman, Watson, Aiken, and Faulk (on 3rd downs) and Lo-Mo.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
4 or 5 wide?
First Down: Moss, Edelman, Aiken, Watson, Baker – Basically a “Go Deep” set where Moss and Aiken will streak deep on the sidelines, Watson and Baker will be in the middle and Edelman will be doing slants. That way the Ravens will have trouble covering everyone.
Second Down: Moss, Edelman, Watson, Baker, LoMo/SaMo/Freddy – Moss goes deep, Edelman goes underneath, Watson goes middle of the field, Baker splits out to the sideline, the RB is an outlet as the receivers draw attention away.
Third Down: Moss, Edelman, Watson, Baker, Faulk – Faulk’s the outlet, everyone else creates space.
Yeah. I want the TEs in the game. Why? The Ravens are in the top 10 of most defensive categories. The only way to counter that is by attempting to create mismatches. Force their LBs to cover our TEs. Draw them away from the line and open up some space for our RBs. If not, then our TEs are fully capable of making big plays.
The players that I want in on every passing down: Moss, Edelman and Watson/Baker. Three. I want to see play actions, quick screens, deep throws. Everything.
Hire OC.
I don't think we'd see Faulk in the 5 receiver set.
I think we’ll see more of Faulk on 2nd downs with more blockers around.
We haven't seen a lot of it this year
but in the past, we have used Faulk out of both the slot and flanker.
True...
…but I’d still rather have Edelman and the TEs out on the field instead of Faulk on spread offense. Faulk works well with a blocker or two in front of him, which is why I think we’ll use him in the 3 or even 4 receiver sets. I just don’t think we’d maximize his utility if he’s in the 5 set.
As I said elsewhere - the key to that
is whether the O-Line is able to pass protect or not.
Also – Faulk is faster and harder to cover than a TE and can be used in a spread where you have Morris/Lomo/Freddie in the backfield or an empty backfield.
I think TEs will exploit the Ravens' weak secondary better than Faulk will.
Who would you rather: Watson or Faulk against Ray Lewis?
Faulk
Faulk is way faster and has better hands. He also is an excellent route runner. I’ll take him against a linebacker in coverage anyday. Note – I’m not talking about him trying to run Ray Lewis over. For that, yeah, gimme size and strength of a TE. But this is about being a reciever.
Getting open is about speed and precise route running. Size and strength do help when it comes to fighting for a ball, but Faulk has velcro mits and gets open so he doesn’t have to fight for it. We’ve just watched a season of Wes Welker – do I really need to be stating this stuff? :-)
watson is faster than faulk
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Also - my point isn't a case of 'instead of'
I’m predicting plays with Edelman in the slot and Faulk either out of the back field or the other slot. He will be single-covered – how many safeties or linebackers can single-cover Kevin Faulk? Not many – especially when the best cover guys will be focused on Randy and Edelman.
Oh, yeah. I agree...
…I hope we’ll see both of our ideas for sets on the playing field. Change of pace. It’s just that Watson has a better chance of walking off the field after getting hit by Suggs or Lewis than Faulk.
Nice write-up Hill.
Week 4 ended up coming down to that dropped pass, although the Pats had defenders waiting for him if he made it, meaning the game wouldn’t necessarily have been over at that point. That Ravens’ first quarter fumble was just as huge a play and I agree that turnovers could be a tipping point on Sunday.
Morris ran pretty well last week, and Freddy says he’s refreshed and not as worn out as he might have been without that mid-season break. Mr. Reliable Kevin Faulk should be getting some reps in as well.
What heartened me this week was Brady’s comments about having a good practice. Belichick has the same response in that good practices = good games. (If you recall, the Patriots admittedly did not practice well in the days leading up to Black Sunday a couple of years ago.)
Keep the faith!
The Ravens were driving...
…just like Colts, just like the Dolphins. I agree it didn’t mean it was over, but it DID kill a drive.
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by Richard Hill on Jan 8, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Also, Sammy Morris...
…went 7 rushes for 9 yards, with a long of 6. Which means he had 1 good run out of 7 and the rest weren’t anything. He needs to step up on Sunday.
And good thing about the Practices. I feel good about the upcoming game.
Hire OC.
by Richard Hill on Jan 8, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
funny about Morris...
Maybe I was thinking about Jacksonville? Perception can be misleading sometimes for sure (with me anyway).
And every single week the same conversation comes up at our house ( I mean, EVERY single week!) about what constitutes the “Play of the Game”. Crayton’s dropped pass certainly qualifies.
Keep the faith!
He had a tremendous game against Jacksonville...
…but that’s why I questioned his consistency. Jacksonville’s D was terrible. The top 6 scoring defenses in the AFC made the playoffs. We’re playing the best run D in the league. It’s obvious everyone needs to step up, but the running core more than any others. Apart from Ed Reed, the Ravens’ secondary is fairly week. That means we need to establish the run game in order open up more lanes in the secondary for Brady to exploit.
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by Richard Hill on Jan 8, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
flip that
attack their weakness first. You won’t be able to start by ‘establishing the run’.
Attack their secondary forcing them to play more in coverage – where they are not as good in terms of personnel. THEN run the ball.
Same formula we used to chew up Pittsburgh back in the Charlie Weiss days.
Chicken or the egg.
I think the Ravens will go into the game stacking their secondary, meaning that our Running Game needs to enter the game literally running and open up lanes for Brady late in the first drive, or on the second drive.
Going for the secondary, which I think will be stacked, early on is risky. It could either crush the Ravens confidence, or it could cause a turnover. I’m leaning toward turnover.
Well, if they do start the game with a stacked secondary
then we’ll have won the game because that means they will have already started with their lesser personnel. In that case, their front 7 will be a front 5 or 6 and – yep, time to run the ball.
Our line should be able to open holes in a man-short run defense and once we get somebody like LoMo or Taylor past the line of scrimmage, their will be a buncha scrap heap cornerbacks to run over …
But I don’t predict they will start without their stud front 7 on the field – those are their best players. We will have to force them to switch to a coverage defense.
All of this will have run through the minds of the Ravens staff
and I’m sure they’ll be combing through footage of Brady’s playoff apperances, in particular the Superbowl game. Given they don’t run the same kind of 4-3 as the Giants, they’ll be keenly aware that the key to upsetting Brady is an effective pass-rush that still leaves enough decent coverage that Brady can’t unload the pass quickly. They might well tag their best coverage guy on Edelman, both to upset the rookie and remove Brady’s outlet, and then try to get an effective blitz on (not an all-out blitz, mind you, but perhaps a bunch of overloads to swamp on side of the field). Taking away Brady’s outlets and then putting pass-rush pressure on him is probably the only way they can take the Pats passing game away.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
In order to stop Rice...
…we’ll need to have a player play Cover on him all night (Mayo). That means have him watch him when he’s running and follow him on passing plays. The Ravens love to collapse the pocket to entice opposing LBs to cheat forward and then dump the ball to Rice in the second level. Mayo needs to ignore the pocket, if Rice is coming out, in order to prevent the big gains that way.
Hire OC.
if rice and heap are in the backfield as pass blockers...we have to blitz so rice doesn't come out
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
My responses to a great list
Great post, The Hill. Here are my responses on each point.
1. Hold the edges and force them to try to run Rice up the middle. Assuming Wilfork & Warren play, we are very strong at stopping the run up the middle with Mayo and Guyton backing them up. We traditionally give up the edge to the run because we primarily pass rush from the edges and often set too tight an edge to stop the end run. This is actually somewhat by design. With Baltimore, we can probably relax the pass-rush heat initially until we force them into must-pass situations. So contain the edges at first.
2. Move the chains. In the second half, we HAVE to remember to use all our offensive weapons and not be one dimensional. In the games we have used our RBs and TEs in the second half, we have moved the ball. Part of that depends on how well the line is playing and whether we can release the TE into a route or if he has to stay in for pass protect. If the line is healthy and playing well, we should be able to move the ball – especially if we have a 2-possession lead.
3. Kevin Faulk will probably be half of this week’s Wes Welker. Yes, Edelman will get a lot of targets. But Faulk will get a lot of them also. If the Ravens triple Randy, then Edelman will be free to run all over the place. If they just double him, then Edelman won’t be as clear and fancy free and it will be Faulk out of the backfield and sometimes out of the slot who gets a lot of targets.
4. Maroney is not AWOL and I don’t believe for a second that he is ‘in the dog house’ like a bunch of ignorant MSM doofus’ think. BB very purposely gave both Faulk and Maroney a blow last week to get them rested for the playoffs while getting Taylor and Morris a lot of snaps. I predict that Maroney will start the game but that everybody will get touches. Whether we run a lot will depend on how the game goes. The place to attack Baltimore’s base defense is in the secondary. Our strategy should be to use the passing game to open up at least a two-score lead, then mix it up to to run them out of the game. I do like the idea of getting our RBs involved in the passing game this week. I would love to see a Weiss-style ball-control spread passing game used this week, with the occasional bomb tossed to Moss or Aiken (who I predict will be wide open much of the game).
5. Yes, the health of both the O-Line and the D-Line is the key to our success in the playoffs. I would rate the fat guys and Moss all right behind Brady as the pieces we simply cannot afford to lose.
Player to watch#1: Kevin Faulk. For the reasons stated above. Edelman is too obvious a choice. He won’t sneak up on the Ravens. Ray Lewis has already called attention to him. Faulk will be in for a lot of snaps. If he O-Line is weak, he’ll be there to protect Brady. If the O-Line is strong, he will catch a buncha passes.
Player to watch#2: Randy Moss. If the Ravens were paying attention, they will realize that Edelman is dangerous enough that they can’t go single-coverage on him and put three guys (effectively) on Moss. So they will probably ‘only’ double him – just like most teams do. The difference is that Moss should be able to occasionally beat their double coverage because they are putting spare parts on the field at corner. Look for him to either burn someone deep or get them to fall down as he crosses at some point.
My additional bonus point: The Patriot’s secondary needs to (and should be able to) shut down the deep pass completely without much safety help. Our corners are good enough to do that against their recievers. Most of their passing action will try to happen in the short-mid range. If our corners can shut down the big play, then our secondary should be able to keep Flacco looking around for an option long enough to get a pass rush to him, even if we set wider than normal (per the edge containment strategy above). We probably will need one of our safeties to spy on Rice at all times.
by mmmmm on Jan 8, 2010 3:03 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
No one ever thinks about Kevin Faulk
who stays under the radar until the chains keep moving.
Keep the faith!
Good response.
I agree with Faulk playing a portion of the missing Welker, but I also think that Faulk will also have to play his Faulk position as well. Asking him to be Faulk while taking up 50% of Welker duties isn’t really a possibility, in my opinion. He will, however, definitely be called upon more in the screen game on 1st and 2nd downs.
I do, also, think that Maroney WAS missing, without a reason (for at least the Jaguars game). Unless he injured his knee on that fumble against the Jaguars, there was no reason for him to sit out. He seemed fine after that play, just a little pissed about the fumble. I don’t think he’s in the dog house, I just think they wanted him to watch the other backs a little bit. Regain his fundamentals and be ready for the playoffs.
I like your other points as well. Rec’d.
great points...rec'd
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Of course I'm recing this...
I don’t know what took me so long to find it. Great post, as usual. You put a lot of work into it and it shows. I’m going with match-up number 1 being the most important, in my opinion.
by dolphinsinbuffalo on Jan 9, 2010 2:30 AM EST reply actions
I believe that Ray Rice has the Ronnie Brown-ability...
…to take over games. He may not have the same skill set (Rice is more shifty, more of a threat receiving, while Brown can enter what we writers call “beast mode” and can “truck stick” defenders), but he needs to be contained, or at least limited, in order to win.
by Richard Hill on Jan 9, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
I agree.
Rice can and will be a huge game changer, but not if the Pats hold him.
by dolphinsinbuffalo on Jan 9, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Greatr post and tough to disagree with points, even from a Ravens fan's POV
But stopping Rice is easier said than done. Same for running the ball against us. Expect ot get a lot of penalties as that is unfortunately the style we play. Try swing passes to the backs out of the backfield and utilize the TE’s against our poor pass covering LB’s. Throw long for that PI penalty and blitz, blitz, blitz to force Flacco into turnovers. Do all that and you’ll win. Sleep on the Ravens and you’ll lose.
Good luck, sort of, hoping for a great game, but of course a Ravens victory.
aka 'Rexx'
That's why I have stopping Rice as our #1 priority...
…we need to come out strong and force Flacco to make the plays, instead of allowing Rice to have a big presence. Eliminate him by exploiting your secondary. That’s what I hope.
by Richard Hill on Jan 9, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Ravens pts @ 1st Half is +4. 2nd Pts is +126
Pats better show up in the 2nd half
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum!
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Goo dstat
Ravens lead league in 3rd quarter scoring. If we were a bit better in the first half, we’d probably have a bye this week!
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Jan 10, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
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