FanPost

Patriots vs Ravens: Points for Victory


Welcome to Patriots Playoff Football!

Back in our rightful place as AFC East Champions, our New England Patriots are about to embark in the Decades final playoff run. How we do in this playoff will solidify our spot as team of the decade, but we must turn our focus to this Wild Card game against the Baltimore Ravens before turning to the next round and our chance at history. This will be a rematch of our Week 4 game that came a dropped ball away from a Patriot loss. However, both of our teams are different from how they were at the beginning of the year.

The Patriots got a solid performance out of Tom Brady (258, 66%, 8.1 yds/c, 1 TD, 0 INT). We had 3 backs run for 25+ yards (Freddy, Faulk and Morris). We utilized our TEs, WRs and RBs in the passing game (3 WRs had 25+ yards, 1 WR and 1 TE had over 35 yards). However, this was Freddy's last game until recently. Morris was taken out the next week. It also wasn't until recently that we started using our TEs in the passing game again. Tully Banta-Cain had yet to emerge as a pressure in the pass-rush game. Our Defense wasn't as solid as it is now and our younger players had yet to emerge. I believe our team, even without Wes, has become more well rounded in all facets of the game.

The Ravens, on the other hand, have evolved as well. In the early season, Ray Rice, their stud RB, would get around 10-12 carries a game. In the second half of the season, he's been getting 15-20, peaking with 30 against Pittsburgh. Flacco, their sophomore QB, came out of the gates quickly throwing from 26-47 passes in the early season. He's been pulled back, a la Sanchez, not throwing over 30 passes in the last 4 weeks of the season. The Ravens are a rush happy team, which doesn't bode well for us.

How are we going to beat the Ravens? Find out after the jump!

What do we need to do to defeat the Baltimore Ravens?

1. Stop Ray Rice. That's right. Not Wes Welker related. Ray Rice is such a game changer (over 2000 total yards on the year, 1300+ rushing, 700+ receiving) that eliminating him is just as important as stopping Maurice Jones-Drew. He is the engine behind their offense. In his game against us, he rushed for only 11 times. However, he rushed for 103 yards with those carries. He received 5 times for 49 yards. If we can corral in Ray Rice, we will force Flacco to the air and he WILL make mistakes. 8 of his 12 picks have come while away and only 9 of his 21 TDs have come away. Stopping Rice will help us tremendously.

2. 2nd Half Output. We've scored 10+ points in the second half in only 3 of our last 10 games. We've scored 10+ second half points in only 2 of our 6 losses. We've held the lead in all but 1 of our games this season, including the half time lead in 5 of our 6 losses. We need to get the lead and NOT give up in the second half. Stop playing prevent defense in the second half. The teams we're playing are too good to give them opportunities to move the ball down field. Be creative in the second half. If we know what plays are coming on offense, so do the Ravens. We need to step up our game in the second half in order to win this game.

3. Find a substitute for Wes Welker. Edelman has some HUGE size 83 shoes to fill. However, I believe that Edelman won't have to step up and do a Welker impression. He will only have to be a 66% Welker. Since we've been using our TEs in the passing game again, Welker hasn't been needed as much as a diversion. He's been able to make plays. With Welker in the line-up, our offense was Welker and Moss, with a run game (MAYBE). With Welker out (and I'm not saying him out is a good thing), Brady will be forced to NOT look to Welker every pass, but instead spread the ball around. I believe that our WRs and TEs must combine their offensive efforts in order to be a substitute for Welker. No one player can take Welker's place. This is a team sport. Everyone must try.

4. Discover a running game. We have Morris and Freddy back. Maroney has gone AWOL, but he has been jotted down with a bum knee for the past week or two. Faulk has remained healthy, but he is not a workhorse back that we need to keep the Ravens' defense honest and keep them from stacking the secondary. Maroney usually heats up in the playoffs so hopefully he will make a big return for us. Freddy's been doing well and ran well in his real comeback against the Texans with limited reps (which is all he SHOULD get in the playoffs). Sammy Morris did well against the Jaguars, but has been very inconsistent. However, he remains an extra veteran body if needed. Faulk will be a threat in the short passing game, but he might be needed to run. Running will give Brady time. That's what's needed. Control the clock and we can make the Ravens resort to the passing game more than necessary.

5. Stay Healthy. Our O-Line and D-Line must remain healthy throughout the game in order to win this game. Warren and Wilfork have been taking breaks the past couple of weeks in order to get as healthy as possible for this wild card game and they will be an integral part of this defense's attempt in slowing Ray Rice. Our O-Line, on the other hand, needs to stay healthy so we don't have to resort to our second stringers. We need Tom Brady off the ground and with plenty of time to let plays develop. Vollmer needs to be playing instead of Kaczur. Neal and Light need to be healthy. So must Koppen and Mankins. Without Welker, we'll need extra time to get the receivers open- Brady won't have his 100% outlet option every time. The O-Line needs to stay in the game for that to happen. A clean bill of health will not only help us this round, but down the round too. We cannot afford anymore injuries.

Bonus: Win the turnover battle. In our 4 losses, after the Colts game, we've turned the ball over two or more times. We've won the turnover battle in only 2 of our past 7 games. We need to force Flacco to make mistakes, force Ray Rice to fumble the ball and lose confidence. We need to capitalize on their mistakes and score TOUCHDOWNS and not Field Goals. Brady needs to not throw interceptions attempting the long ball when it's not needed. We need to limit the fumbles in the red zone. We need to force more than we give in order to win.

If we win match-ups...

...1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, we'll win by around 10 points.

...1, 2, 3 and 4, we'll win by 7-10 points.

...1, 2, and 3, we'll win by 3-7 points.

...1 and 2, we'll win by 0-3 points.

...1, the Ravens will win by 0-3 points.

...none, the Ravens win by a 3-7 points.

Players to Watch:

1. Julian Edelman: He doesn't have to be Wes Welker, he just has to draw enough attention away from the other players on offense to allow a collective group effort be our Wes Welker.

2. Our O-Line: The Ravens tacked 3 sacks on Brady in the first match-up (with Kaczur, not Vollmer). Brady needs to stay cleaner this game for us to win.

3. Our Secondary: How will they handle the Ravens' offensive weapons? Leigh Bodden needs to eliminate Derrick Mason on his own (possible), while whoever plays opposite (Probably Springs) will need to do their job as well. McGowan will probably be called upon to limit Todd Heap. Everyone needs to be able to stop their opponent alone in order for us to stack the box and stop Ray Rice, as well as have our front seven apply enough pressure on Flacco on passing downs.

My Prediction: Patriots 31 - Ravens 24

My Statistical Prediction: Patriots 20.6 - Ravens 10.7

Go Patriots!

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