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A Closer Look at the 2010 Patriots Defense (Halfway Edition)

Is it perfect? No. Is it getting better? I hope so.

This season I've dedicated myself to focusing on the defensive personnel and strategy that the Patriots are using. I've kept track of formations. I've charted snap percentages. And I've enjoyed every minute of it. 

It has been an education and I'm happy to share some attempted insight at just what the Patriots have tried to do on defense that has left them with a 6-2 record, yet a poorly ranked defense.

I bust out the defensive snap percentage charts and provide a break down of the three levels of the Belichick 2.0 Pats Defense after the jump...

Star-divide

If nothing else this season I've discovered why Bill Belichick craves versatility with his players, especially along the defensive line. While the Pats have yet to use a 4-3 front, they've used a number of players in different spots.

Let us begin with an area that huge question marks coming into this season before losing Ty Warren.

Defensive Line

In the 3-4 base the Patriots have used a number of different combinations, and despite getting run over by Peyton Hillis, this has been a surprisingly good set of run stoppers. As you can see from the chart below it's been a pretty healthy rotation with Vince Wilfork being the stallwart.

Dl_111210_medium

You'll notice a of peaks and valleys, which seems like a good way to keep everyone fresh. Just because a guy doesn't dress one week doesn't mean he won't play 70% of the snaps the next.

Pryor and Wright are a little better at pass rush, while Gerard Warren was used a lot early on, but has seen somewhat of a reduction as the young run stoppers have come on.

Clearly Brandon Deaderick was impressing in practice as he was brought in week four against the Dolphins and hasn't played less than 45% of the snaps in any game.

Ron Brace has been really up and down, hard to know for sure what that's a reflection of. He had a three game low before shooting back up to a defensive line-high of 71% of the snaps.

Gone are the days of Warren-Wilfork-Seymour straight up every time they go 3-4. Now you never know what you're going to get. Wilfork will placed wherever they want to to take away the running game. Then the other spots are manned based on match-up and freshness.

Linebackers

Let's start with with the inside linebackers. Jerod Mayo never leaves the field and Brandon Spikes will be next to him whenever it's a running down. Gary Guyton comes on in for some, but not all, passing situations, and usually he's blitzing or covering the tight end. Dane Fletcher is a part of one 3-3-5 nickel package where his responsibility is to spy the running back.

At outside linebacker we're seeing Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich as the starters in the 3-4, and they're primarily there to stop the run. Cunningham started as a DPR but is now primarily only playing the base defense.

Tully Banta-Cain rotates in with Cunningham and Ninkovich but they try to keep him a little fresher for pass rushing.

Lb_111210_medium

Shawn Crable is used only as a designated pass rusher and he really needs to start producing.

Defensive Backs

Don't underestimate the effect of getting Patrick Chung back will have on this defense. Chung was second on the team in tackles before going out, causing the team to rely on the solid but unspectacular James Sanders. Brandon Meriweather started the season in the doghouse but has worked himself back up to an every down player. 

Sanders will continue to rotate in even after Chung comes back. The real question is when we'll see Jarrad Page back. His playing time was just starting to rise (at the expense of Meriweather and Sanders) when he was hurt against the Ravens.

Db_111210_medium

Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington have been the go-to guys since Darius Butler fell off the map after two poor games to start the season. Jonathan Wilhite has been better this year, having his best game against the Browns, but still has been inconsistent and taken costly penalties (Vikings Illegal Contact in End Zone).

What's most interesting to me would've been if Leigh Bodden had not gotten hurt. Looks like there's a good chance Butler would've been riding the pine then too because clearly Wilhite is still at nickelback over him.

Overall

There are a lot of young players getting a lot of experience against a lot of good teams this year. The fact that the Patriots have gotten off to a 6-2 start has to be a surprise to everyone. Especially if you look at how they rank statistically.

But as Bill Belichick says, "stats are for losers", and right now the Patriots have been winning. But it's hard not to start drooling while thinking about 2011 when the Pats will return every starter, add Bodden and Warren back into the equation, along with whatever draft picks they add in 2011.

That makes me feel warm and fuzzy no matter what happens the rest of the way. Let's just hope for continues improvement, especially on third down. The rest will take care of itself.

Poll
Who is your defensive MVP?
Jerod Mayo
298 votes
Vince Wilfork
188 votes
Devin McCourty
97 votes
Patrick Chung
123 votes

706 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 35 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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The thing about 2011 is my favorite

Ty Warren returns. Leigh Bodden returns.
The team has 2 first rounders to draft defens eif they want (they are historically good at drafting defensive players in the first round).
But, 6-2 is 6-2/ They haven’t won any games because of cheap crap like…
1. The Steelers “beating” the Dolphins cause of the refs
2. Roddy White pushing off the Ravens defender last night

by pats4life on Nov 12, 2010 2:39 PM EST reply actions  

well

2 1st round picks,
2 2nd round picks ( and since the panthers are 1-7 3rd last-with that pick…we still can get 1st rd talents w. that pick)
2 3rd round picks-thanks chilly

This those picks…our team is set for at least 5 years of success…hopefully dynasty 2.0

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 12, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

With our luck

the Raiders will win the Super Bowl.

Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

our luck? In case you havent noticed

Luck and karma seem to be alive and well in Foxborough ’01 forward…

by JonnyNYC on Nov 13, 2010 12:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

There's no question to me that this defense will be leaps and bounds better next year

2012 will be even better. Having Leigh Bodden back will be huge for the Patriots. Bodden is, in my opinion, close to the level of a shut down corner. At the minimum, he is a top 15 cornerback in this league. Add him to Devin McCourty, who should be even better next year, and the Patriots will be very difficult to throw against.

I’m also intrigued by the fact that we should have Ty Warren back next year. Even if we don’t have Gerard Warren back, you could be looking at a Ty Warren – Wilfork – Deaderick front, with Ron Brace filling that Gerard Warren run stuffing role and Myron Pryor and Mike Wright acting as sub-rushers. That would be one hell of a d-line rotation, and I’m not so sure that the Patriots actually have to spend a top draft pick at the position.

Safety should be pretty solid next year. I don’t know what’s up with Brandon Meriweather, but hopefully he can get back to his ball-hawking ways from last year. Patrick Chung is as solid as a strong safety you are going to find in this league and could very well be on the talent level of a (healthy) Bob Sanders. Sergio Brown could be a potential rotation player, although James Sanders should still be there and there’s always the chance the team re-signs Jarrad Page or Brandon McGowan.

Inside linebacker will be one of the strongest positions on this team with Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes in the base 3-4, with Guyton replacing Spikes in passing situations and in some sub-packages. Nothing will change here.

Outside linebacker is interesting. You have Cunningham who will presumably start on one side. On the other you’ve got Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich. Both are decent, but not anything extraordinary. Crable hasn’t shown much this year. Do you bring in a top rookie? Maybe.

by Greg Knopping on Nov 12, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions  

Even if we don’t have Gerard Warren back, you could be looking at a Ty Warren – Wilfork – Deaderick front, with Ron Brace filling that Gerard Warren run stuffing role and Myron Pryor and Mike Wright acting as sub-rushers.

Not worried that both the Warrens will be on the outer? Ty Warren’s getting on in age and is coming off a season-ending injury. At some point they’ll be looking for a replacement, and by your own reasoning (which I don’t think is bad at all) Ron Brace + Brandon Deaderick = one player. That means one starting DE role to fill, with Pryor and Wright being best as sub-package pass-rushers.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 12, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Have to agree on the Ty Warren thinking

I got the feeling BB was none too happy when Warren decided he had to have surgery in the season when he could have had it in the off season, but was finishing his degree instead…whether it’s right or wrong, BB insists on dedication to the team, strong locker room leaders for the young guys to learn from who put football above everything else…

by buachz on Nov 13, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Draft or develop?

I’m with you on this. It’s easy to assume we’re going to draft defensive line and linebackers but at the same time our young guys are improving weekly. Brace, Pryor, Deaderick and Love offer a lot of talent on the young end of the roster; I do think that we could take a pass rusher though or at the very least someone to play the edge with a little more power than we’ve seen so far.

Our secondary next season could end up being pretty ridiculous, with Bodden coming back and McCourty and Chung having mastered their roles at that point. If I had 2 wishes they would be for Butler and Brown to stick around and improve a little. It’s not that I hate James Sanders and Jonathan Wilhite, I just don’t think they really bring anything other than a body in a blue jersey to the field.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Nov 12, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Crable is Able....

Look at the tape, Crable shows up alot and forces opposing QB’s into rushing their throws and check-offs. His only issue is “finishing” the rush and finishing the play. Its like he sits there and says "Yes, I made it past the tackle and then shifts down as he approaches the QB. FINISH should be his mantra….

by Shadowlawyer on Nov 12, 2010 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

this.....noticed the same thing

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 12, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Sort of

Crable can make it past tackles, but usually when he does it, his impact is obsolete. I’ve seen some good things from him, and he’s nearly picked up a couple of sacks, but he really needs to come up with a concrete play or two to warrant sticking around.

by Greg Knopping on Nov 12, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Very insightful

Great compilation of data here. The Pats defense is much better than I expected it to be, but still has a lot of work to do. I’d like to see an even split between defensive players and offensive players with our top picks. Perhaps a running back or wide receiver, and a pass rusher, (OLB or DE) with the other first rounder.

by Stephen Verman on Nov 12, 2010 4:00 PM EST reply actions  

So...

does that mean the 2011 draftees who “would” have been rookies are still eligible for ROTY in 2012?

Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

If there is no season (which I doubt)

They probably would be eligible. Just out of curiosity, how does the NFL treat players now who miss their first season in the league either due to injury (IR’ed prior to their first game) or who are never active for a game in their true rookie year- are they eligible for ROTY they in their first year as starters/ on the field?

by dannijd on Nov 12, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't have a clue...

I know the NBA does that. It was part of the reason why Greg Oden was in the conversation for ROTY two years ago.

Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Until he hurt himself....

just the way the injury cookie crumbles.

I don't think so. Homey don't play dat.

by AtomicDawg on Nov 12, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think they are eligible if they had a medical red-shirt season...

I suspect it’s because the award is meant to recognise the fact that it’s impressive if a rookie accomplishes success despite a new playbook, new circumstances, etc.

Allowing a second-year player with a year in the system isn’t quite the same, even if they were IR’d from the outset – they’ve still had a year in the organisation to see how things work.

It’s up to the Associated Press to set their own rules as to eligibility, but I’d imagine they go with the easiest rule to determine – ‘genuine’ rookies, fresh out of college on the first year of their first professional football contract. I can’t find anything saying what their rules for eligibility are, so I imagine it’s simply ‘must be a rookie’.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 12, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

You're correct...

There’s a draft, teams select players and get their rights, but the draftees aren’t signed by the teams. They’re held in stasis, effectively – the team owns the rights to the player, but little else.

I couldn’t tell you if that means that there’s a double-deep pool of talent for Rookie of the Year awards or not, though. I’d suspect so, because they’re still rookies as they’re unsigned and without experience.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 12, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, McCourty has been unreal this year.

Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 6:27 PM EST reply actions  

Mayo!!!!..And...

Chung!!!!!!

Mayo has been having one hell of a year. He has been really under the radar, b/c well, he has been so good since day one…

But break out D guy has to go to, one mean Jamaican, Mon…

Chung!!!!!

I hope he is at least 80 percent for the steelers…

by JDot on Nov 12, 2010 9:53 PM EST reply actions  

I think Chung has shown he was a great pick 2 seasons ago

But have you seen what Clay Matthews has done so far this season in GB? He could have been had by the Pats, and he has 11 sacks for the season already. Love Chung, just saying…when you have a SOLID pick in an area of weakness, you pick him.

'A warrior may change his metal, but not his
heart,' as the saying is upon Barsoom." Dejah Thoris

by ba-shiznit on Nov 13, 2010 3:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Clay Matthews probably doesn't have the run-stopping he'd need to be a Pats LB.

So he’d probably be used as a 3rd down situational pass-rusher, like Tully Banta-Cain or Shawn Crable have been this season. That’s a pretty high price for a guy who only plays one out of three downs, even if he gets 11 sacks in 8 games.

He’s in a perfect situation in Green Bay and it probably helps his performance to some extent. There’s not guarantee he’d produce in a Pats uniform even if he’d been drafted. I wouldn’t stress out about him not being a Pat.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 13, 2010 4:00 AM EST up reply actions  

acc to rap sheet
S Jarrad Page is officially “out,” while S Patrick Chung and RB Fred Taylor are “probable.”

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 13, 2010 10:35 AM EST reply actions  

The #Steelers have added LB James Harrison to the injury report with back spasms. His status for tomorrow’s game is #Questionable.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 13, 2010 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Isn't anyone bothered

that the 3-4 defense the Patriots employ is not similar to any of the other 3-4 defenses in the league?
The Packers have a sack-getter OLB is Clay Matthews.
The entire Steelers defense can get sacks.
The Chargers defense gets sacks.

I just think that the “ideal 3-4 OLB that sets the edge” for the Patriots doesn’t cut it anymore

by pats4life on Nov 13, 2010 4:18 PM EST reply actions  

No.

Tamba Hali is carving up in the Chiefs (8 sacks halfway through the season), and the Chiefs run a carbon-copy of the Pats 3-4.

Similarly, Elvis Dumervil got 17 sacks for the Broncos last year in their (mostly) Pats-style 3-4, to go alongside his 49 tackles.

The Pats need to pad out their personnel in their defensive front, especially their DEs and OLB corps, but it’s not an indication about how well the Pats-style D runs when it has experienced, athletic and gifted personnel.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 13, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

this

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 13, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn't Vrabel

have like 12 sacks in 2007? Or something like that?

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Nov 13, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

yes 12.5

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."

by NinjaZX6R on Nov 13, 2010 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

And Tully Banta-Cain had 10 last season.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Nov 13, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I strongly doubt

using a 4-3 would make much difference considering the personnel..

The glass is at 50% of capacity.

by BabeParilli on Nov 14, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

It's rather simplistic, but

I would explain the 6-2 record despite the poor defensive statistics by noting they have one victory against teams with a winning record. They could win 3-4 more games despite this and that could get them into the playoffs. It is hard to envision this defense being adequate to advance far in the playoffs. As BB says, after this many games you know what you’re dealing with.

The glass is at 50% of capacity.

by BabeParilli on Nov 14, 2010 1:31 PM EST reply actions  

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