Patriots are missing Brandon McGowan.
All season, I've had the impression that the Pats are particularly susceptible to pass-catching TEs. I'd noticed it while watching games, and I had the feeling the stats weren't favourable to the Pats at all. However, it turns out that the Pats are 'only' giving up 60 yards or so to TEs most games, so I couldn't quite put a finger on why I felt Tight Ends were giving the Pats such strife, so I dug into the numbers further. It wasn't a pretty finding.
In short, the Pats are being monstered by TEs.
I'll break it down after the jump.
Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals
Jermaine Gresham - 6 receptions, 25 yards, 1 TD. Fairly pedestrian numbers, right?
Not entirely.
His first NFL reception was a short pass on a 2nd-and-10; the drive ended in a punt. His second was equally as meaningless, another shot grab on a doomed drive.
Then, however, it got interesting. One one drive Gresham caught two passes in the Red Zone, the latter reception being his first NFL receiving TD.
Gresham again featured twice in a later drive - Palmer threw a reception to Gresham on the first play to kick-start a drive, and then threw him a later pass in the Red Zone before Benson punched it in from the one-yard mark.
Net result? 4 drives featuring TE receptions, 2 of which were for TDs. 3 of the 6 receptions were in the Red Zone, all of which were on scoring drives.
Week 2: New York Jets
Dustin Keller - 7 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD. And it's worse than it looks.
Keller's first reception was for 13 yards on a 2nd-and-20; effectively saving the drive. Not a good thing for the Pats, considering the drive finally resulted in a TD pass to Braylon Edwards.
Keller's second and third receptions were consecutive, going for 12 yards to convert a 2nd-and-10, and 22 yards on the resulting 1st-and-10. That drive was capped off with a FG.
Keller's fourth and fifth were again consecutive, getting 7 yards on a 2nd-and-8, and then converting the 3rd down on a 39 yard(!) gain. Again, the drive resulted in a FG.
Keller's sixth was a 22 yard gain to put the Jets in Patriot territory, from which the Jets went on to score a TD.
Keller's final reception was a 3rd-and-1 on the goal-line; Keller scored the TD himself.
Net result? He had receptions in 5 drives, 3 of which went for TDs and two of which resulted in FGs. He also had four big receptions to save drives, which really explains the 100% scoring when he was successfully targeted.
Week 3: Buffalo Bills
Jonathan Stupar - 3 receptions, 27 yards.
Stupar's first reception was to start off the drive on Buffalo's 28 yard line - an 8 yard gain to set up 2nd-and-2. Buffalo converted, and later kicked a FG on the drive (throwing to a TE on first down is a common theme on scoring drives, you'll notice).
Stupar's second reception was again to start off a drive, a 15 yard reception on first down. That drive ended in a missed FG.
Stupar's final reception was a short pass in midfield on 2nd-and-10. Buffalo converted the short 3rd conversion, and went on to score a TD on the drive.
Net result? TE targeted on 3 drives, resulting in 1 TD, 1 FG, 1 missed FG. Every time Buffalo had a completion to a TE they found themselves in position to score.
Week 4: Miami Dolphins
Anthony Fasano - 5 receptions, 67 yards.
Fasano's first reception was on a 3rd-and-3. He took it a 21 yards downfield, which isn't exactly flattering.
Fasano's second reception was on a 3rd-and-5 (see that pattern again?) and he took it for 13. The 'Phins went on to score a TD off the drive.
Fasano's third reception was a 12 yard gain on 1st-and-10, and that drive resulted in the blocked FG attempt that was returned for a TD by Kyle Arrington.
Fasano's fourth was a 2nd-and-1, which he took for 10. The next play was Chung's pick-6.
His fifth was an 11 yard grab on 1st-and-10, that drive stalled with Thigpen picking out Jarrad Page in coverage.
Net result? Receptions on 5 drives, resulting in a TD, a blocked FG, and two turnovers.
Week 6 - Baltimore Ravens
Todd Heap - 3 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD.
Heap's first reception was a stunner - a 17 yard grab on 3rd-and-9 (there's that pattern again). He saved the drive that marched into Pats territory and kicked a FG.
Heap's second catch was arguably even better - a 2nd-and-11 in NE's Red Zone, and he takes it in for a 16 yard TD.
Heap's third was again a particularly useful catch - on a 2nd-and-7 on Baltimore's 34, he snagged a 16 yard pass down the middle that converted the down and let Baltimore drive into NE territory, where they kicked a FG.
Heap was then knocked out of the game by a well placed NE tackle, and that arguably swung momentum towards the Pats - taking away the player via injury rather than good play paid dividends.
Net result? Targeted on three drives, 1 for a TD and 2 for FG. Heap saved all three drives by long conversions, meaning a direct contribution to three scores.
Week 7 - San Diego Chargers
Antonio Gates - 4 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD.
Gates was playing hurt and the Pats were able to keep him out of the game for a significant period of time. However, when he did contribute, it was major - his first reception was a for a TD from the Patriots 4 yard line.
He was then back into action pretty quickly, netting a 26 yard reception on 1st-and-10 to get into NE's Red Zone. From there, the Chargers converted with a rushing TD to Mike Tolbert.
Gates' third and fourth receptions came in the last drive. Rivers targeted Gates on first-down to start the movement (there's that other pattern again), instantly converting 1st-and-10 with a 12 yard catch. His fourth reception came later, an 8 yard gain on 3rd-and-10 that was extremely important for putting the Chargers into FG range. However, the Chargers blew it with a penalty that pushed them back 5 yards, and the subsequent FG kick was wide right.
Net result? Featured in three drives, two of which went for TDs and one of which would have set up a game-tying FG attempt.
Week 8 - Minnesota Vikings
Visanthe Shiancoe - 4 receptions, 38 yards
Shiancoe's first grab was on the fateful drive just before half-time - he grabbed a 9 yarder on 1st-and-10 to get into New England's Red Zone. That drive ended with the stuffed 4th-and-goal attempt from 2 yards out.
His second was early in the third quarter in midfield, taking a 1st-and-10 from the Vikings side of halfway 17 yards into NE territory. That drive later turned into a Vikings FG.
Shiancoe's third was a rarity - a third-down attempt to a TE that didn't actually convert. On 3rd-and-3, Shiancoe could only manage 1 yard, and the Vikings punted.
Shiancoe's fourth was from the Vikings 43, a 1st-and-10 that he snagged for 11 yards to put the Vikings in Patriots territory again. However, a penalty snuffed it out and the Vikings were forced to gun it out with the clock running down.
Net result? Four drives, 1 for a FG, 1 that was a stuffed 4th-and-goal attempt, a punt, and one that ran out of time as the game ended.
Week 9 - Cleveland Browns
Benjamin Watson - 1 reception, 24 yards
Evan Moore - 1 reception, 17 yards
Seems pretty innocuous, but these two guys made key plays.
Watson's reception was on a 2nd-and-9 on NE's 47 yard line. He made the grab and drove it deep into NE's Orange Zone - the 23 yard line, well within FG range. That wasn't an issue, however, as the Browns punched it in for a TD.
Similarly, Moore's reception was crucial. Following the fumble on kickoff, the Browns started off with possession NE's 19 yard line. This soon became the two yard line, as Moore drove the dagger in with a 17 yard reception. The next play, the Browns were celebrating a TD.
Net result? Two drives with passes to TEs, 2 TDs, and one of the receptions was a doozy to save a 2nd-and-long and get into Pats territory.
Week 10 - Pittsburgh Steelers
Heath Miller - 5 receptions, 60 yards.
Miller's first reception continued the trend - on a 3rd-and-10, Miller salvaged the drive with a 16 yarder to the right. However, after a penalty, an incompletion and a pair of sacks, the Steelers couldn't capitalise and punted it away.
Miller's second touch was on 1st-and-10 on the Pats 29 yard line, which he drove straight into the Pats Red Zone with an 18 yard snag. A couple of incompletions later, the Steelers kicked a FG.
The Steelers started possession in the 4th quarter with a short pass to Miller to get into Patriots territory. They converted the 2nd-and-short on the way to a TD.
The Steelers started off their next possession on their 47 yard line with a 9 yard pass to Miller down the middle. In short time, this was converted into a TD to Mike Wallace.
The final pass to Miller came on the Patriots 47 yard line, an 11 yard pass on a 1st-and-10. This was on the last drive with the clock running down, and the Steelers couldn't drive it all the way into the End Zone, coming up a handful of yards and a handful of second short.
Net result? Five drives, resulting in two TDs, a FG, a punt, and a clock run-out while the Steelers were in the Patriots Red Zone.
Week 11 - Indianapolis Colts
Jacob Tamme - 7 receptions, 60 yards.
Tamme's first reception was a short pass to set up a manageable 3rd-and-6 at midfield... which Manning promptly gunned into the hands of Brandon Meriweather.
Tamme's second was more useful - he got all 7 yards on a 2nd-and-7 on the Colts 23. Two plays later, he caught a 6 yarder to turn a 2nd-and-8 into a 3rd-and-2, and he caught a third pass on the drive to convert the 3rd-and-2 with a 14 yard reception (another 3rd down conversion? Ew). A couple of Manning imcompletions and the Colts punted away.
Tamme's fifth reception gained 6 yards on a 1st-and-10 to set up a short conversion, which was dutifully taking downfield and resulted in Blair Whites first TD.
Tamme's sixth reception gained 7 yards on a 2nd-and-6, which again was trotted downfield for Blair White's second TD.
Tamme's final reception was on a 2nd-and-6 of the Colts' last possession, on which he loped upfield with for a 17 yard gain to near midfield. That drive was ended by Sanders' pick.
Net result? Gained receptions on 5 drives, 2 of which went for TDs and two of which resulted in Patriots turnovers.
What does this all mean?
TEs have been thrown to on 39 offensive drives against the Pats. 16 of these drives went for TDs. 7 more went for FGs. 2 resulted in missed FG attempts, 1 a blocked FG attempt, a further drive ended in a goal-line 4th down attempt, and two more drives ended because the clock ran out while the opposition was in the Red Zone.
39 drives where the opposition threw to TEs, 29 of them where the opposition was in a position to score at the end of the drive, resulting in 16 TDs, 7 FGs. The opposition *actually* scored on 23 drives out of 39.
And perhaps most distressing, a lot of those scores were directly the result of the success of TEs, either on 2nd-and-long, on third-down conversions, or because the TEs themselves actually scored the TD.
Also distressing is the fact that there have been 5 games this season that the opposition were in a position to score points at the end of every single drive in which they targeted TEs. That's half the season, in case you weren't looking.
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about time you wrote an article
jk lol
recd
Non Sibi Sed Patriae &I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Toy Story wears no. 39 100x better than D.D.R
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
It helps when I actually get to see a full game...
damned ESPN, I hate thee.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
they didn't show the colts pats game on espn last week?
Non Sibi Sed Patriae &I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Toy Story wears no. 39 100x better than D.D.R
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
He doesn't say that about me, because he doesn't like my articles.
Be happy, it’s a sign that he cares.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Nov 24, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
lol
Non Sibi Sed Patriae &I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Toy Story wears no. 39 100x better than D.D.R
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
so Page hasn't done anything.
Few times i saw him play…he usually lined up in the FS spot
so Page will be working @ the Citgo next year….
Dustin Keller has been in a slump for a few weeks…i am hoping he doesn’t have a break out game against us next week.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae &I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Toy Story wears no. 39 100x better than D.D.R
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
Page was being injected slowly into the lineup (3 games, limited snaps)
and then he got hurt. He did have a pick against the ’Phins, and seemed okay in his limited game-time. He was also on the Big-4 ST units (punt coverage, punt return, kick coverage, kick return).
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
There’s an inherent flaw with this sort of analysis – a lack of control group
It’s like saying “in 90% of drives in which Adrian Peterson has carried, the Vikings have scored” or something similar.
Or “in drives where a WR has been targeted”
The 23/39 figure would also likely be the same if your criteria was “in 23 of 39 drives where the opposition used a running back” or “in 23 of 39 drives where the opposition used a receiver”. In fact if you examine those 23 drives I believe there will be more than one common characteristic, which using your logic could also be used as justification for the end result.
Also, the other flaw is that you’re only counting the COMPLETED passes to TEs – your wording is ‘drives in which a TE was targeted’ but there may be other drives where a TE was targeted but no completion ensued (only measuring success is flawed).
So I don’t really think this says anything at all tbh. It MAY be right but it needs more qualification.
by quadruple option on Nov 24, 2010 10:53 PM EST reply actions
If that’s TLDNR then the issue is correlation not causation – you’re saying that the common characteristic of 23 scoring drives is passes to TEs – I am willing to bet there is more than one common characteristic – and thus going beyond correlation requires a control group (drives without TE receptions etc)
by quadruple option on Nov 24, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Don't bother, Comedic will bury you in stats
He’s good at that. I even tried to argue WHEN in the game that tended to happen .. like oh.. i don’t know, when we’re in whatever the crap D we’re in in the 4th quarter. Oh.. my bad.. it’s not a formation, it’s our team sucking. I forgot the other post lately.
So basically no one can cover tight ends. If teams hit a tight end at any point in the drive, they get a TD so we lose if someone throws to a TE every drive because they OBVIOUSLY will end up with 77 points or something. Oh.. and our secondary is lazy instead of bad formations.
I’m growing more and more disappointed with you people today.
You realise there’s a logical flaw there
“If a team throws a 50 yard pass to a wide receiver they get a TD” is not the same as “we can’t cover deep passes”
That sentence could be entirely true even if only 1 out of 20 deep balls was ever completed – same with the TE argument
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
There's a few flaws
It doesn’t help that tight ends against us average about 10-15 yards a catch. Depending on field position, that’s pretty big. There’s also plenty of other numbers, as you’ve said. Either way, i’m going to default to “our Secondary is lazy, inexperienced, and can’t cover people over 200 lb.” because I don’t want to end up hoping the Patriots lose again for the sake of trying to point out how negative these forums get sometimes and that stats aren’t the whole story.
I never said that it's impossible
And I’m also optimistic that the return of Jarrad Page to health will fill that Brandon McGowan role. He’s a big safety (6’1, 225lbs) and he can get physical with TEs in the same way that Brandon McGowan could.
Whoever said they want the Pats to lose? That’s just silly. I’m identifying a problem that doesn’t quite show up in the stats (‘only’ 60 yards per game doesn’t seem huge when the Pats bleed yardage), and I’m expecting the Pats to find a way to patch it. Whether it’s McGowan, or Chung, or Guyton, or some combination thereof, it’s part of the interest in seeing how the team evolves.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
We're through 10 games already.. it's not a trend anymore
Page didn’t help a heck of a lot when he was playing according to your stats either. He was in a few of those games.
For a game or so, I did want the pats to lose. I forget why and I’d rather not think about it but it annoyed me that it was caused by this forum. Hence the hiatus. I would not like to return to that so I’m just going to blindly agree with whatever stats are presented. It’s not a point of discussion as much as a peaceful surrendering.
Oh.. and 10 games in and it’s still happening, that’s not gonna get patched. It’s a loophole and the only way to solve it is if we find a 6’4 corner in the draft. So maybe next year.
Page was in only 3 games in limited usage
He was new to the system and they were bringing him along slowly. Then he got hurt, so the Pats didn’t have a big S on the active list for a while.
He’s coming back to health now, so I suspect they’ll phase him back into the D and try him out in that Brandon McGowan TE-eater role. That’s what he was doing against the ’Phins when healthy – he picked Tyler Thigpen when Thigpen overthrew Fasano.
Next year the Pats will have Brandon McGowan back. He’s a proven commodity at shutting down TEs.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
The control group would be total defensive drives, I suppose
And my real point was that a lot of the scoring drives are scoring drives because of big TE plays, which is why I went over the down-and-distance of each major TE reception. There’s quite a few 3rd-down conversions or big 2-and-long receptions that were in TD-scoring drives, which is a worry.
The other thing was how many scoring drives were started off with a decent TE reception (instead of, say, a short RB run). Getting yards and momentum against the Pats by throwing to a TE on first-down of a drive seems to be effective.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
But I bet if you looked at ALL scoring drives, there would be something else you could imply causation from… e.g. a +8 yard run, maybe a +20 yard reception, a completion on 3rd down etc…
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
True
But again, that’s why I gave the play-by-play breakdown as well as the overall stats I’ve extrapolated from them. You have to use them in concert.
For example: the Jets threw a completion to a TE on 5 drives, 3 of which were for TDs and two of which were for FGs.
Of those drives, Keller ‘saved’ the first drive by getting a 13 yard reception to turn a 2nd-and-20 into a far more manageable 3rd-and-7. Big play that directly resulted in the Jets scoring on that drive.
On the second drive, he converted a 2nd-and-10 with a 12 yard reception, and then backed that up with a 22 yarder the very next play. 34 yards in consecutive plays means he’s primarily responsible for flipping the field, so he gets credit for the FG that resulted.
Third drive, Keller got 7 yards on a 2nd-and-8, and then converted 3rd-and-1 with a 39 yard reception. Again, two key plays for huge yardage in a drive that gained a FG, so I’ll give him the credit for it.
Fourth drive, Keller again flipped the field by getting a 22 yard reception to enter Pats territory; the Jets scored a TD. This is a bit more tenuous because it wasn’t a conversion, but getting a deep strike to enter the oppositions’s area is decent enough.
Fifth drive, the Jets were in the Red Zone on a 3rd-and-1, and Keller scored a TD on a reception.
Five drives, and he scored on one, he was an absolutely key player on three of them, and the other drive he got a 22 yard reception at midfield. That’s where that 5-from-5 scoring opportunities thing comes in – he really was responsible for the fact that they scored points on every possession he got a reception, it wasn’t ancillary.
As a side-note – the Patriots put Jarrad Page on the active game-day roster after the Jets game, which suggests they thought he’d be useful in stopping just this kind of play. Shame he got injured afterwards, but I have no doubt they wanted to bring him in to be the 2010 version of Brandon McGowan.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
Raw numbers...
In drives where the opposition has thrown a completion to a TE, they’ve scored 16 TDs from 39 drives = 41%
In total drives, the opposition has scored 27 TDs from 107 total drives = 25%
In drives where they haven’t thrown to a TE, 11 TDs from 68 drives = 16%
Clearly, the latter two are going to be skewed by 3-and-outs where it’s something like run, run, pass (to RB or WR or whatever). Also, there’s going to be another stat that the longer the drive (and thus more momentum/plays/chance of TD), the more likely a TE will be involved along the way at some point.
But it’s still worth noting the high percentage of times where a TE has contributed, especially when you go over those receptions (as I’ve done in the article) and note how often they’re on 2nd-and-long, or for a 3rd down, or in the Red Zone, or at crucial times. It suggests to me that the use of TEs against NE has been particularly effective.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Again, “thrown to a TE” is not the same as “thrown a completion to a TE”
Can you pull the stats for failed throws to TEs?
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
If I said 'threw to a TE' I meant a completion, as they're the ones that show up on stat sheets
I can go through the article again and change it, if you wish? Hah.
The real crux of it is the breakdown of passes themselves – the 3rd down conversions of Dustin Keller or Heath Miller, or the field-flipping plays of Watson to put them in FG (or better) range, or the number of times Heap turned a 2nd-and-long into a 15 yard reception. If you focus on those (I’ll call them key plays, because they are) and then look at the result of the drive, you’ll see that a lot of the time where a TE gets a key play, be it a 2nd-and-long or a third-down conversion, they go on to score a FG or better.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Hmm, reminds me of some stats someone did a few years back showing the average time taken to score a goal in I think the EPL… well not average but median because mean would have increased the amount… anyway it showed that a majority of goals came in <10 passes or something… they’re always interesting stats
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
It'd be high, but it wouldn't be as much of a surprise stat
Hernandez is getting 44.4 yards per game, and Gronk’s getting another 24.5. Between the two of them they’ve also scored 9 TDs.
I know FootballOutsiders rates Gronkowski particularly highly because he’s a stud at converting key plays (pretty much the same ones I worry about on defence) 2nd-and-10, or 3rd downs, or TDs. He’s something like 3rd best in the league at the moment. Hernandez is rated highly, but his plays are more opportunistic rather than ‘crucial’ because of the down-and-distance situations in which he’s gotten receptions.
The Pats TEs are as good as anyones. I still wish that McGowan and/or Page were 100% healthy to shut down the opposition’s TEs, though.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
I can actually work it out if you'd like?
It takes a little time because I have to go through all 10 games play by play, but if it will make you less despondent about reading Pats-related articles, I can do it, haha.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
BTW 60 yards a game is still 960 yards a year which is a huge year for a TE anyway
by quadruple option on Nov 24, 2010 10:55 PM EST reply actions
It is indeed, it just felt more than that.
Last year McGowan limited Tony Gonzalez to something like 1 reception for a dozen yards; this year so-so TEs are cracking 5 receptions, 50 yards.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 24, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
it is all about who Belichick tries to stop on the other team
such as keying in on Reggie Wayne and allowing everyone else to torch them
To a certain extent, yes
But he’s also had to juggle his personnel around to try to fill the role that McGowan played last year, in that premier TE-eater. This year he’s alternated between Chung and Guyton, and both have been burned at times. Ideally Jarrad Page would’ve filled in for McGowan as the big-bodied quick guy who covers TEs and would allow Chung to play a traditional Safety role, but he was hurt for all but three games of the season.
I guess the best example was the Jets game. That was prior to Santonio Holmes re-entering the lineup, so Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller were clearly their two biggest threats in the passing game. Yet Dustin Keller ran riot down the middle of the D, and converted a bunch of crucial third-downs and long receptions where he would have obviously been targeted by a McGowan-type Safety. I don’t think it’s coincidental that after the Jets game, the Pats went out and traded for Jarrad Page.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Anyway, CS, can you rework the stats but instead of using completions, use total targets – I think that little modifier would work – what you’re basically saying is:
P(completion to TE) * R(result of throw to TE)
So if one of three is completed for a big 3rd down it’d be P(0.33)*(whatever you rank the result) which is different if we’re allowing a high completion rate
Instinctually I think the result might actually be WORSE than you suggest because I have a feeling the P(completion) is particularly high.
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 12:11 AM EST reply actions
I didn't want the emphasis to be on stats, though
I intended that looking at the plays came first, and then the extrapolated result of the drive came second. And looking at that breakdown of plays, it’s clear that the Pats aren’t ideally suited to taking TEs out of 2nd-and-long situations, out of third-downs, or in the Red Zone. In other words, the Pats are struggling against TEs in the same way that opposition defences are struggling against Rob Gronkowski – he might not get a whole lot of total yards, but the yards he does get are the crucial ones.
That’s what really piqued my interest in the first place – the Pats are giving up ~60 yards per game to TEs (which is a fair amount, but not extraordinarily so), but it seems like more because they tend to give up those yards when they least wish to, like 2nd-and-long and 3rd-down situations.
It’s basically an explanation of why the eye-test says they’re susceptible to TEs when the stat sheet would suggest they’re not too bad.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 25, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
The “crucial yards” thing and the “4th quarter comeback” reminds me of a great quote
“Good surgeons get out of trouble, great surgeons don’t get into it in the first place”
by quadruple option on Nov 25, 2010 1:26 AM EST reply actions
Similar to a great martial arts quote (for you, SMP!!)
A group of students were sitting around their master, asking him questions.
Student: Master, what would you do if there was an assailant hiding in your car, ready to attack you?
Master: I wouldn’t get in the car.
Reality is a matter of opinion.
Interesting article, and you obviously put alot of work into it, but heres another angle
All stats prove is you are good at doing whatever the stat measures. BB always preeches team team team – if you have multiple ways of playing (on O and D) then you are much more likely to win. Most teams aren’t created to be that diverse, and the stats make sense in those cases, but to a team like the Pats, they are meaningless.
For example, the Steelers are great at run D, so we passed on them and kill them, but play prevent D, so the score ends up looking closer than it really was. At the end of the season the stats will show they had great run D, and for non diverse teams who play them, they can’t flip the switch and pass over the run D, so it usually ends up in a W, but that only means they will have a winning record, but unlikely to mean they win the prize. Anyone who didn’t watch the game but who just looked at the score and the stats will say, the score was reasonably close, and the Pats didn’t really run on them so must have been a close game…not really.
Most teams don’t have the breadth of short possession receivers we have, and for those one dimensional teams, the Steelers can beat them, but ‘situational football’ means the Pats will usually beat the ‘good’ teams cause they have that diversity, which doesn’t show up in stats – the only place it shows up is in score, and last time I checked the Pats lead the NFL in that.
The problem with stats in football is that they always assume whatever you are trying to prove happens in isolation. BB always stresses team, that’s the way he views the game, you do what makes the team better, even though it may not benefit the individual.
One (defensive!) stat that caught my eye was the Pats lead the NFL in not giving up long plays – only one over 20 yards or something this year. I am quite sure that hasn’t happened by chance. This means that BB has consciously put more value in not giving up quick TDs than allowing short middle field passes eg to TEs! (and I think that was why he was pizzed at Meriweather early in the season, he was more interested in making the highlight reel, whereas BB wanted to stop the deep ball, meaning Meriweather has to give up personal stats for team success).
The reason is, he knows he doesn’t have a lights out defense, so he increases their chance of creating turnovers, he stops the big play and makes the opposition make more shorter gains. More plays = more chances for a turnover! For the stat heads you will look at total turnovers and say the Pats aren’t way good at that (joint 2nd in ints, joint last in FFs), what you really want to look at however is turnovers per drive (vs giveaway per drive on the O). I haven’t done the stats, but because we take away the deep ball, and force more shorter plays, there are more chances for a turnover, and also less drives cause of the more plays, they will usually be longer also. And we also have no FL for RBs, and are joint 2nd on ints, so we are not giving away turnovers, and our high O efficiency means the turnovers turn into points…and points win games.
That to me is what bend but don’t break is. You will sacrifice great stats for the turnover and therefore ultimately the win.
True
I started off looking at it because I had this feeling (really a gut reaction) that the Pats were hurting against opposition TEs, but as satsunada pointed out, they’d only had one guy get above 70 yards receiving against them. That didn’t ‘feel’ right, so I wondered just at what points the opposition TEs were actually getting their yardage.
A lot of it was on 2nd-and-long, to make 3rd down conversions, or in the Red Zone – basically the three most crucial times to get yardage. The Pats might ‘only’ be giving up 60-70 yards to TEs a game, but they’re vital yards. If the Pats can find a way to shut down one or two of these passes a game, their defence will improve out of sight, because they’re often drive-saving plays.
My best example would be the offensive pass interference call against Brandon Pettigrew. It was a 3rd-and-10 on a drive where the Lions needed to score to stay in the game, and he rocketed off the line, hit Gary Guyton fairly solidly, rolled inside and made a 15-20 yard completion. That would’ve been a killer in terms of momentum and yardage and game situation, yet the referees determined that Pettigrew’s move on Guyton was illegal and called the play back.
From that point on, the Lions offence looked rather toothless, and I don’t think it was a coincidence. Shut down a TE, stop a drive, and the opposition loses the feeling they can move the ball when they need to.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Nov 27, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

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