We all know the story behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Came into the year at the bottom of the RB depth chart and after the Maroney trade and injuries to Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk he became the Starter. After today's game in Chicago he stands at 786 rushing yards with three games left to play, those being the Packers, Bills and the Dolphins. The Packers are roghly the same level as the patriots in terms of Run Defense, with an average of 111.3 rushing yards allowed per game (Patriots 114.1) and we will have to see how he does against them Sunday night. Buffallo ranks dead last in Run Defense with 170.9 yards allowed per game and in week 3 Green-Ellis gained 98 yards against Buffalo, with the Patriots having a total of 200 rushing yards. Also if anyone remembers Green-Ellis had 105 Rushing yards and a touchdown against Buffalo back in 2008, so we can hope to see around 100 yards for Green-Ellis in Buffalo. Miami is statistically the best of these teams in terms of Run Defense, ranking 9th in the league with an of average of 99.6 yards by opponents, however the Patriots did put up 119 yards against the Dolphins back in week four and the law firm accounted for 76 of those rushing yards. The other factor in this is that the Patriots like using Woodhead and we could see more of Fred Taylor in the next three games.Now Benjarvus Green-Ellis currently needs 214 yards in three games to get to 1,000 rushing yards and many projections put him at around around 950 rushing yards for the season. But i don't think it is that unrealistic that he will get to the 1k mark and he would be the first Patriot to do so since Corey Dillon set a franchise record of 1,635 rushing yards in the 2004-2005 season.
My projection for the next three weeks is:
12/19 vs Green Bay- BJGE: 75 yards
May be high but he just rushed 86 yards against the Bears #2 Rush Defense (84.9 yards per game)
12/26 @ Buffalo- BJGE: 95 yards
This total is lower than what some might expect,but i think the Pats will spread the ball around between their RB's
1/2 vs Miami- BJGE: 60 yards
The Patriots will only NOT rest their starters in the 2nd half/4th quarter if they lose the previous 2.
Total: 230 rushing yards for BJGE
(p.s before anyone leaves a comment I'm just rounding on the game totals obviously i don't expect him to finish this neatly in each game)
Season Total: 1,016 rushing yards for the law firm
Even if the Law Firm reaches 1,000+ yards there is a possibility that the Patriots could draft Mark Ingram and he would either lose his starting job or be traded/sign with another team because he is a RFA in 2011. Granted he will most likely have the starting job if Ingram isn't drafted and that is dependent on how the raiders do the rest of the season.
What do you folks think? Please answer the poll and leave comments.