Its the second week of December, and up to now, we have witnessed an amazing year by Tom Brady, and emergences of Devin McCourty, Danny Woodhead, and Ben Jarvous Green-Ellis, among others. This young team has been able to clinch a playoff spot (wildcard or division leader) with 3 important games remaining; where they will face two division rivals and a strong non-conference team.
The Patriots sit at 11-2 for the year, and their threats to take away the AFC East, Home-Field, and 1st seed are those with a 8-5 record or higher. (because the Patriots worst possible finish is 11-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3): they could take the home-field advantage and 1st seed
- Baltimore Ravens (9-4): they could take the home-field advantage and 1st seed
- New York Jets (9-4): they could take the division, home-field advantage, and 1st seed
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-5): they could take the home-field advantage and 1st seed
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5): they could take the home-field advantage and 1st seed
Now with that done, lets take a look at each team individually.
Jaguars:
Possibilities:
- A Patriots win in ANY of their remaining games
- A Jaguars loss in ANY of their remaining games
Tie-braking Procedure Breakdown:
- Head-to-Head: N/A
- Conference: JAG 7-3 / NE 8-2
- Common Games: JAG 3-1(1 remaining) / NE 3-1 (1 remaining)
The Jaguars play at the Colts, against the Redskins, and visit the Texans.
Threat level: Low Unless the Patriots lose out and the Jaguars win out, they wont take the home-field.
Chiefs:
Possibilities:
- A Patriots win in ANY of their remaining games
- A Chiefs loss in ANY of their remaining games
Tie-braking Procedure Breakdown:
- Head-to-Head: N/A
- Conference: KC 5-5 (2 remaining) / NE 8-2 (2 remaining) New England Wins tiebreaker
If the Chiefs win out and the Patriots lose out, they tie. New England holds the tie-breaker. So regardless, the Patriots would beat them.
Threat level: None
Jets
Possibilities:
- Two Patriot wins
- Two Jets losses
- A Patriot win + a Jet loss
Tie Braking Procedures:
- Head-to-Head: 1-1
- Division: NYJ 3-2 (1 remaining) // NE: 3-1(two remaining)
- Common Games: NYJ: 6-3 (3 remaining) // NE: 8-3 (3 remaining)
Jets remaining schedule: At the Steelers, at the Bears, against the Bills
Threat level: Mild
Ravens
Possibilities:
- Patriots win 1 game
- Ravens loose 1 game
Tie-braking Procedures: Head-to-Head: Patriots 1-0 (no remaining games) Patriots win tiebreaker
Ravens remaining schedule: Against the Saints, at the Browns, versus the Bengals.
Threat level: Low
Steelers
Possibilities:
- Patriots win 2 games
- Steelers loose 2 games
- Patriots win 1 + Steelers loose 1
Tie-braking Procedures:
Head-to-Head: 1-0 Patriots Patriots win Tiebreaker
Steelers remaining games: Against the Jets, against the Panthers, and at the Browns
Threat Level: High
A quick explanation:
On situations where the Patriots win the tiebreaker, the other team Must have a better record than the Patriots in order to claim the home-field away from us, if they tie us, the Patriots still win.
If the Patriots find themselves winning on Sunday night, the Ravens and Jaguars are out of the battle. One of the Steelers and Jets will loose the game (baring a rare tie), and getting themselves out of the mix.
Games to root for:
Week 15:
Patriots vs Packers
Colts vs Jaguars
Saints @ Ravens
If any of these combinations happen, it eliminates someone from the 1st seed race. If the Patriots win, it eliminates the Jaguars and Ravens. I think we should let the Steelers-Jets game play itself out and see what happens. They both pose threats to us.
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