The go-to-guy: why Patriots "4th and 2" is like Manning's SB interception
Peyton Manning's Super Bowl XLIV interception with 3:22 left in the 4th quarter wasn't the only thing that lost the biggest sporting event of the year. But it WAS pretty disastrous. I've watched that over and over again to get a sense of what happened, but more on that later.
There is a theme to soundly winning a game, which is exactly what the Saints did. It's common for the losing fanbase to outline what their team did wrong, what they could've done to win the game. That typically leaves out one of the more obvious points: the other team was in complete and utter control.
As much as Colts fans would prefer not to admit it, Indy was managed by Sean Payton. The Saints were in control of that game and dictated how it played out, much the same as our 38-17 drumming at the hands of New Orleans. Payton and his coaching staff masterfully designed a game plan that would keep the Colts on their toes, constantly guessing.
The film of that fateful interception is very revealing.
First, Manning is pressured by a rush from the outside. The MLB angles left, tying up 2 offensive linemen. The linebacker on the left crosses to the right behind him, but allows the right linebacker to cross in front of him and tie up #29 Joseph Addai. 0:33 seconds into the video, you can see 4 Colts OL's piled up in the middle. Saints' #58, OLB Scott Shanle, then shoots the hole, adding more pressure.
With 3 defenders closing in on Manning, he had nothing else to do but toss the ball to his go-to-guy, Reggie Wayne. This is muscle memory for Manning. It's bread and butter. And it's almost ALWAYS successful. So what went wrong? There were 3 possible scenarios as I see it (there could be more, but I'll leave that to you):
- Reggie Wayne - Before turning in on his route, Wayne stutter stepped. It appears he should've cut sharper and cut off CB Tracy Porter.
- Peyton Manning - #18 never tried to misdirect the backfield. His helmet never went anywhere else but left. He locked onto the left side of the field, where Wayne was, like a lased smart bomb. Tracy Porter, like all good CB's, saw this and correctly predicted Manning was going to Wayne.
- Manning was managed - The Saints knew Manning would use one of his top targets when he got in trouble and that target was Reggie Wayne all along. Most times, blitzing Manning is a recipe for disaster; he has an incredibly fast release and picks up blitzes all day long. Not this time. Watching the linebacker dance outlined above was very eye opening. They weren't just sitting back waiting for things to happen, they were dictating how things would play out. They owned the offensive line and made sure Manning had no time to make a decision.
The go-to-play turned out to be an Achilles Heal. The Saints forced Manning into going with that play and Indy paid the price. But they're not the only ones who fell victim to this. I give you... THE 4TH AND 2!!
Melvin Bullitt had this to say about the play:
"We were alerted earlier in the week by defensive backs coach (Alan Williams), if it came down to it, third down, fourth down, and short, look to (Wes) Welker, look to Faulk. Those are the two guys it’s going to go to. Those are the go-to guys, and rightfully so," Bullitt said. ‘‘I mean, they’ve made so many big plays on third-and-fourth downs. You just have to expect it."
Preparation. Bullitt knew Kevin Faulk was a likely target, a go-to-guy for Tom Brady and he correctly read that play. Argue all you want about whether or not that was a legit first down (it was), but that was good preparation on Bullitt's part.
If a team is smart and the coaching staff correctly analyzes an opponent's tendencies, they can maneuver that opposing team into using their tried-and-true plays, the ones easily prepared for. Such is the case with Manning's interception and our fourth and 2.
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intersting analysis
I definitely agree that the Saints were very prepared for this game, even though early in the game it may not have seemed like it as the Colts moved the ball very well. I saw something the other day where, i can’t remember if it was payton, or the D coordinator, who said, they had different defenses prepared for the 3rd, AND the 4th quarter. This is smart coaching. They saw in the Ravens and Jets games how the Colts adjusted at halftime and won the second halfs. The Saints decided to out adjust them and it worked. I hope the Pats staff took note on this game.
I also brought up that Pats game where New Orleans smoked us as a point to consider when people i knew were picking the Colts. I thought, if they can prepare a game plan on both sides of the ball like they did against us then I can see them winning. And they did. i was little concerned because they didn’t play their best down the stretch and even in the Minnesota game, they were iffy, but they really put it together in the big game.
Good point about the game plan
I’d heard that, too. If I recall correctly, he had a first half plan, a third quarter plan, and a fourth quarter plan. It certainly kept Indy on their toes.
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
makes me wonder why the Hoodie doesn't do that
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.....159mph is my top speed
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
(formerly mathew.40)
He's wearing too many hats?
2009 was a year without co-ordinators, in essence. BoB wasn’t one, and Pees wasn’t good enough to stay one. Add that to all the other roles Hoodie plays, he was spread too thinly over the entire Pats organisation [insert generic Kraft spread jokes here].
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Feb 17, 2010 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
It's also great execution
Seven times out of ten, the defense could know that pass is coming and Manning still completes it to Wayne. The pass rush still has to get Manning to feel uncomfortable and Porter still has to make a perfect break on the ball for the interception to happen.
But yeah, Payton completely outcoached Caldwell. And that would still be true even if the onside kick to start the second half had gone the other way — it took a lot of guts to make that call, and the odds that it would work were definitely in his favor given what they had seen of the Colts leaving the line early on kickoffs. I think those are the biggest differences from Belichick’s fourth-and-two call:
1) The odds were in our favor but it didn’t work out for us, and the consequences of it not working out were disastrous for us because Indy had all the momentum even before that play. We all knew the Colts would score a touchdown after that.
2) The Saints weren’t letting the Colts get anything after the first quarter, so they could reasonably think they could stop Indy or at least hold them to a field goal if the onside kick didn’t work.
Just watched the NFL Videos Sound FX of the Super Bowl
(for the umpteenth time)
It’s also great execution. Seven times out of ten, the defense could know that pass is coming and Manning still completes it to Wayne.
That is so true. In the third quarter Manning throws that spectacular pass to Dallas Clark, who’s surrounded by Saints. One of the Saints defenders is heard back on the bench after the play saying how he was jamming Clark on the line but Clark still caught the ball (around the 3 min. mark in the video clip.)
The Saints definitely directed the traffic on that play, practically giving Wayne to Manning and closing off any options from the right, and leaving him only a couple of seconds to make the throw. Brilliant and effective.
The Colts knew what the Patriots options were going to be on 4th and 2 and who Brady’s go to guys would be and were able to stop them. (Although I still maintain that Faulk actually made the first down, it was such a close call I don’t blame the refs. Much.)
Keep the faith!
oh...forgot to add
that was a bad spot by the referee….i still don’t know how he saw faulk “bobble” the ball on that pass play when Faulk had his back to him
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.....159mph is my top speed
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
(formerly mathew.40)
They made it seem like Faulk bobbled it to the ground...
…where in reality he bobbled once and gained possession.
by Richard Hill on Feb 16, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
so.
according to the NFL season rankings for nxt year…we dont make the cut for the top 10.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.....159mph is my top speed
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
(formerly mathew.40)
really doesn;t matter where they rank the Pats
what happens next year is what counts. The saints weren’t ranked that high last year and well look what happens. I don;t see why ppl rank and stuff b4 the drafts and Free agency anyways.
That's a bad thing?
Hopefully they convince themselves they’re underdogs. It might kill some of the “let’s try a 2007-esque 50 yard bomb to Randy ever second play” tendencies they had.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Feb 17, 2010 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
A little underdog mentality
with some of Rodney’s tried and true “They didn’t think we could do it” attitude would only help this team right now.
Keep the faith!
Great Article
I didn’t bother watching the video though.
Brady has been doing it for years with Faulk, and with Troy Brown before that. Remember the 3rd and 4 back in ‘07 that would have iced that game too for NE? He went to Troy Brown, like he always did, and Sanders played it perfectly and almost had his own INT for Touchdown. If a guy like me can notice this from my couch, I’d hope the professionals notice this.
I think both Manning and Brady are so good at what they do they don’t really need wrinkles any more, they just need to execute. It’s all fine and dandy to have a “blueprint” on how to beat them, but it takes a ridiculously good team to actually execute the “gameplan.” That’s what the Saints were.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
everytime that stupid helmet catch shows up on nfl network...i switch the channel
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.....159mph is my top speed
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
(formerly mathew.40)
This was the worst play by the Colts for the entire season.
Caldwell was outcoached by Payton. He was so conservative, he reminded me of Dungy. I love Dungy, BUT I liked the more aggressive coaching style by Caldwell during the season. I mean, don’t change what’s been working in the biggest game of the year, for crying out loud! Hopefully, he’ll learn for next year.
Good post MPF.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Feb 17, 2010 10:42 AM EST reply actions
is caldwell
an offensive minded coach or defensive minded coach?
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.....159mph is my top speed
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
(formerly mathew.40)
He was the Colts QB Coach for several years before becoming HC.
And since 2005, he’s also been Assistant Head Coach, so he’s likely had his hand in all facets of the game for quite a while.
His inclinations, however, are likely offensive.
^this
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Feb 17, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
No, the onside kick was like 4th and 2, except it worked
If it didn’t, Payton would be in the same position as Belichick. Thin line between genius and goat. The pass was just an INT, but not a controversial play call in itself. Not comparable to the 4th and 2
To clarify...
The comparison wasn’t about risk of the play, but about the tendency of teams to utilize their go-to plays and smart oppositions “maneuvering” that team into using those plays so they could take advantage of them.
Blogger at SBNation's Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
I think 50% of the people watching probably
said something to the effect of “slant to Wayne” before the ball was hiked. My household pretty much knew what was coming. Thats no bueno.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Feb 17, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
But in that case, the 4th and 2 doesn't really count for maneuverability
You’re stopping a team on downs. On 4th down, you’re only left with 2 choices: run a play for a first down or punt. I can see the point on Manning’s play, but not it’s connection to the former. And the play you use on 4th and 2 isn’t necessarily going to be a go-to play as it is one designed specifically for that yardage; a go-to play is more generally used than that. What made the 4th and 2 so controversial on the other hand was it’s risk factor, which is why I disagreed with Belichick running it, but would have certainly been one of 100% of Pats fans who cheered had he made it. :)
I agree its similar in that each play had the QB targeting their 'goto guy', but
that’s about as similar as it gets.
Brady actually executed and got it to his man and Faulk DID (according to replays) make the first down. We just got a bad spot (not blaming the officials – it wasn’t an easy call for them to make – but it was a bad spot). 4th & 2 was the right call and the Patriots executed. They just got a bad outcome because of the chance placement of the refs.
Manning’s throw was a blatant mistake. First, he telegraphed the throw by locking on Wayne. Second, he completely failed to read the defense and the fact that his crossing reciever RIGHT IN FRONT OF HIM was completely open because unlike Wayne’s man, Collie’s man completely bit on his feint downfield. That was all visible within the same passing lane so Manning didn’t even have to move his head to see it and any experienced NFL QB is expected to see that.
Freeze the video at :33 and tell me which receiver it looks like Manning should be throwing to. Back it up a few, play it and watch the defensive back. Yeah, yeah, we get the benefit of video. But Manning, Brady, et al, get paid major bucks to see that live.
The SB interception was the right play call (he had wide open reciever within the passing lane that his line cleared for him) but he did not execute – he made a mistake and Porter did his job by pouncing on the mistake.
Good points
But could any INT possibly be more damaging to a team’s super bowl chances?
I don’t think so, aside from the McNabb INT that allowed the Patriots to win consecutive Super Bowls. That ended the Eagles’ comeback hopes.
The Colts themselves got a HUGE pick 6 to beat the Bears in a Super Bowl, of course it was a pick 6 of Rex Grossman so nobody was amazed… sarcasm
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 18, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

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