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Show me the money - what is Kraft thinking?

Normally, I dislike the Boston Herald's Ron Borges to the point of distraction.  He's right up there with the Boston Globe's Dan Shaughnessy.  Their both founding members of the "look how smart I am because I'm so negative on the team I'm covering" club.  Well, Borges isn't quite as bad as Shaughnessy, the queen of the club, but I think you catch my drift.

Normally, I can't stand Borges but today, he's right.  In his story Unlike Patriots, rival Colts willing to pay the price, he correctly sums up many of the "perceived" money issues plaguing this franchise.  Example: instead of playing the "oh no, what's a new CBA going to bring" card, Colts owner Jim Irsay shrugs it off as business as usual:

"Quite frankly, Peyton’s deal is not the hard deal that everyone has talked about. We’d like to get something done in the offseason. That’s what we usually have done."

No complaining about the CBA, no big deal, business as usual.  Pay the man.  Do you honestly want Manning playing on another team, AGAINST you?  I think Tom Moore just choked on his gum.  I'm not saying Tom Brady's deal will be that big of a deal and that Kraft will be guzzling Pepto for weeks prior, but statements from Foxborough about the uncertainty of the future labor market make it seem like Kraft, Inc. is setting the stage for a battle over money.

Let's take Brady out of the picture for a moment, shall we?  Guys like Tom and Fivehead are no brainers.  In a salary capped world, it's the rest of the team that becomes an issue.  You see, there's only so much pie to go around.  Sure, there's ways around that (million dollar bonus for having a clean locker or something), but the hardest part is keeping a team together, especially after they experience success.  A player's career can be so short in the grand scheme of things; they want to do right by their family and strike while the fire is hot.  Who can blame them.  But Irsay doesn't seem too worried about the supporting cast either:

"It’s critically important that we still have the ability to have that great supporting cast because you have to try to keep the (Pierre) Garcons and the (Austin) Collies - they’re going to be coming up - and this next era going into the new decade. But it’ll get done. No question about that. It’s something we’ll focus on in the offseason. Both us and the Patriots will have the franchise tag sort of thing but normally it doesn’t come down to that (for the Colts).

Another reality that Borges delves into with Irsay is the Colts use of the draft.  Indy has long been bullish on developing and retaining players through the draft.  There's almost no activity from that franchise during the free agency period.  Compare that to New England and you'll notice a feeding frenzy of free agent signings in Foxborough.  The draft is the key for our rival:

Irsay pointed out the Colts have eschewed big free agent signings that can go bust and cost you millions (Adalius Thomas and Rosevelt Colvin come to mind), preferring to build through the draft and then working the numbers to keep those players. To do it the Colts have been at or near the top of the salary scale for years, paying the price for excellence rather than seeking cheap replacements for key departures.

Paying guys like Vince Wilfork seems like a no brainer, that a guy so critical to the success of your team should be compensated.  But Kraft seems to believe, in general, that he can find "value", a diamond in the rough to replace everyone.  Why take the risk?  You have a known star in Vince.  Why quibble over a few million or an extra year?  Again, Irsay doesn't seem too bothered by shelling out some cash:

"We’ve been in the top five of payroll and have been No. 1 more than once in this league," Irsay said. "We pay tens and tens of millions of dollars cash over cap to the tune of in excess of $40 million, $50 million cash over cap this last decade. There’s strong belief here that drafting the best players and keeping those players is the best way for us to succeed.

Don't get me wrong.  I haven't converted to the dark side and there's no horseshoe on my hat, but it'd be silly not to give a nod to the organization that made it's way to the Super Bowl this year.  They have to be doing something right.  Sure, it's easy to say "I'm right" when venus aligns with mars and your team ends up at the Big Dance.  For how many years did the media write glowingly of "The Patriot Way", of players eschewing mega contracts to keep the core together?  Well maybe the sheen has worn off a bit.  Maybe "The Patriot Way" of old, that of finding value, will no longer work.

Maybe, just maybe, "The Patriot Way" needs a good, swift, kick in the breeches.

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The Colts tend to lock up their top-tier skill-position players...

Manning, his favourite targets (Wayne, Clark, etc) and a handful of key playmakers – Brackett, Freeney, Mathis, Sanders. They fill out the rest of the roster through the draft, whether good or bad players – they’re still looking for a DT after several drafts worth of attempts at finding a guy. In contrast, the Pats try to have a deep, broad tier of middle-pay/skill guys – Linesmen, TEs, LBs and Safeties. That’s what they draft for, and they fill out the rest with free agents/tradees. If anything, they eschew drafting skill players and get the solid, productive guys in the draft.

I believe the Colts system is boom-or-bust – they either have a spectacular season, or they fail to do anything at all. The difference is whether they can keep the health of their narrow band of top players. If Manning had gone down, 2008 Pats-like, that team would be utterly screwed.

The Pats system maintain depth and thus consistency – only the Pats could pull out an 11 win season with their untested backup QB like that. Would Jim Sorgi or Travis Painter get 11 wins? Very, very unlikely. It’s the consistency that’s amazing – so many playoff appearances and so few season failures. However, that emphasis on a deep, wide tier of middle-guys means that the Pats can occasionally lack one or two playmakers, especially if a tradee or free agent signing goes belly up.

In other words – the Pats will regularly get to the playoffs, because they have amazing depth and consistency, but aren’t guaranteed to win those close games. The Colts will be irregular in their performances over several seasons, mainly because they’re guaranteed (like all teams) occasionally lose one of their key guys to injury, but if they’re healthy, they ought to win the Big One. If not, they’ll probably crash out in the first round of playoffs or not reach it at all.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 3, 2010 8:42 PM EST reply actions  

So have the Colts just gotten really, really lucky?

Because they’ve made the playoffs for what….9 straight years?

Don’t get me wrong – I completely agree with you assessment of the Pats approach, but I don’t think the Colts system is really “boom-or-bust.” Really, I think a lot of it just comes down to how good Manning is. All they have to do is surround him with 5-6 great players, and they are set. Now that he’s gotten over choking in the playoffs (maybe), they can easily contend from year to year. Manning makes their front office’s job really, REALLY easy.

Once Manning is gone, though, we will see the Colts’ true colors. Can they maintain that consistency without him? I don’t think they will. I think Irsay’s approach of (over)paying to keep talent around Manning works now, but that overpaying will not work when there isn’t such a solid centerpiece. The Colts can afford to neglect other positions because of Manning, so the overpaying doesn’t hurt them, but that won’t last forever.

Conversely, the Patriots never overpay, so they never find themselves behind the 8-ball (although I would agree that they could do it, since Brady is pretty damn good, too, when not hobbled). Combined with the focus on depth, they will compete from year to year no matter what stars they do or do not have. Call it what you will, but it is the best business model for today’s NFL.

by nbradley07 on Feb 3, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Now that he’s gotten over choking in the playoffs (maybe), they can easily contend from year to year

Manning’s playoff QB rating: 87.5
Brady’s playoff QB rating: 85.5

Manning “choked” in one game: 2003 AFC Title Game, on the road as an underdog, against the best defense in a snowstorm. The rest of the team is very important. Ever since 2005, they have been playing the defense worthy of a Super Bowl champion, and that is mainly due to better drafting of defensive players to surround Freeney and Mathis.

The Pats approach of scouring the FA market really ended in 2007. They started signing big-time free agents (AD, Stallworth). Sure they did it once before with Colvin, but guys like Smith, Vrabel and Harrison were all bargain basement (Harrison was pretty unwanted, so kudos for BB for taking that chance). The Pats really stopped getting these guys. Also, the foundation already there (McGinest, Bruschi, Law, Milloy, Brown, Patten) was solid (credit to kraft and Parcells). The drafts that were very fruitful early have dried up (2009 draft looks good right now).

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Feb 3, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

You can cite QB ratings; I can cite actual Ws. But that wasn't my point.

Manning’s Playoff Record: 9-8
Brady’s Playoff Record: 14-4

But this is a tiresome debate. I’m not trying to knock Manning. I think he is the best QB in the league right now, maybe ever (final judgment reserved until careers are over); he has singlehandedly carried the Colts on his back more than once.

My point was that BECAUSE Manning is so great, the Colts get away with overpaying. They overpay some players that they want to keep, and other positions go wanting. However, Manning is so good, that it covers up those holes. For example, the defense doesn’t have to be NEARLY as good, because Manning is the best defense the Colts have.

My argument was merely that the Patriots have proven they can be competitive without TB (2008), largely because the roster is SO well balanced. The Colts roster is not nearly as well balanced, and I think they will struggle to adjust when Manning leaves.

That was my only point.

by nbradley07 on Feb 3, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that the Colts roster is more "balanced" then you give it credit

My point was that the Colts finally, or really since 2005, have the personnel on D to win Super Bowls. Much like the Pats at the beginning of last decade.

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Feb 3, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

i wouldn't say the colts present D stands w. the pats D of 2001-2007

but its good

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Feb 3, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions  

The Colts D this year is better than any

non 2003-2004 Pats D’s.

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Feb 3, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed.

There is secondary depth (and YOUNG secondary depth), and there is the best D-Line I’ve seen.

by Richard Hill on Feb 3, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

i like their secondary better than the d line.

and like BB, i like Mathis than Freeney.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Feb 3, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

again at the least I think you are using the wrong word. "overpaying" doesn't fit here at all in my mind. (I don't recall an average player being payed well beyond what was right).

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

the colts were favored to win the afc title game in 03

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Feb 3, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Pats were (-3) favorites in the 03 Title Game

it was the 2004 Divisional where the Colts ended up as favorites, but the line opened with the Pats favored.

EVH+DLR=BFFs........ God I Hope So!!

by dmstorm22 on Feb 3, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

o yeah...ur right. manning threw for 49 td....no wonder they were fav. in 04

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Feb 3, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Brady plays in those snowstorms all the time - NE earns home playoffs a lot

so comparing a guy who earns home playoff berths in a Dome isn’t kosher. Throwing in NE is slightly harder than throwing in Indy. The fact they’re so close actually suggests Brady is superior – Manning’s struggled to go to NE to win games, but not so much the other way around.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 1:16 AM EST up reply actions  

close in the playoffs but not the rest of the games.

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Because the Colts don't always get to play in a Dome in playoffs?

Manning is guaranteed to play in a Dome for half of his regular season games. Brady isn’t. Brady is guaranteed to have 3? 4? 5? games outside in a New England winter; even more if he has a Bills game or two in December (which happens every other year). Apples and oranges. It’s not to say Manning isn’t a great QB – he clearly is – but comparing passer ratings between the two in completely different settings isn’t the way to do it.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

well then personally I would say it goes both ways cause even though playing in weather is harder

you can’t use it to say he is better if the numbers aren’t (the same goes for the reverse). Basically you can not use passer rating by itself to rate players in the playoffs nor can you use rings in my opinion unless it is that they haven’t one one at all.

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

about those pesky rings

Enough already with the tiresome “rings don’t matter” mantra. They’d matter to you big time if Peyton had more than one of them (especially if he gets 3), and they certainly matter to him. All of the players want them whether you think they matter or not.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 4, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

oh they matter they just are not "the end all win all" factor for the best QB

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Except Manning himself seems to think they are

He’s mentioned his lack of rings far, far more than his statistics, passer rating, or any records he has. Which do you think is more motivation? Passer rating or Superbowl victories?

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 5, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

You tend to lust after the things you don't have.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 5, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

True...

but I don’t hear Brady saying “I wish I had a slightly higher passer rating”, either.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 6, 2010 1:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Not so much lucky - they ARE a good organisation and have been riding a very good QB

but it’s why a team with a so-so regular season record (say, 2001 Pats) or a team that has had a number of very, very close games (2003 Pats) can make it and win Superbowls, where a team that has been utterly dominant in the regular season will fail at the first hurdle.

The top echelon of players can get a team into the playoffs, but it’s the second tier of good-but-not-great players that wins playoff games.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

You should figure out what you mean by overpaying cause just cause you pay a guy well (if he deserves it) doesn't mean you are overpaying.

I don’t know who you think we are overpaying but even for you paying brady and making sure he stays probably wouldn’t be considered overpaying.

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

No player is invaluable - you need to build a team.

Say you value a player at $8M a year. Another team comes in and says they’ll pay $10M a year. If you go to $11M or $12M, you’re now overpaying, because you’re exceeding the value that you have assigned to the player. Or, conversely, if you are consistently valuing players at a rate far in excess of what others would pay, you are also overpaying.

For example, Freeney’s contract is $12M a year. I would consider him overpaid, because when he signed that contract, it made him the highest paid defensive player in NFL history, when he probably wasn’t even the best DE in the NFL at the time (not saying he’s not great, obviously he is).

That’s always been the Colts model – overpay for the stars, and hope their talent glosses over the holes. I really only think it works because of Manning – he’s the lynchpin. Other teams consistently overpay (Raiders, Redskins, etc.), but it never gels because they lack a centerpiece like Manning.

by nbradley07 on Feb 4, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

pay wilfork

i wonder if Brady would take the bare minimum of qb salary; so the Pats have extra $ to buy him new toys @ WR and pay Bodden. ( I would forever love Brady if he did that.)
plus unlike Manning, Brady’s wife makes $50+ million a year.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
i love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Feb 3, 2010 8:54 PM EST reply actions  

You can't drop his pay like that, even if you wanted to

He has to earn a large percentage (I forget what it is, but it’s significant) of his previous year’s salary – you can’t pay one guy a huge amount one year, and then pay him nothing the next. You might be able to step it down, bit by bit, but even that means you’re still paying him a lot.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions  

you can raise a players salary I believe by a total of 30% (this may only be for the non caped year though

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

It works both ways, though

In year a, he might get x dollars. So in year b, you can only increase his pay by x + 0.3×. But there’s also a flipside to that – there’s a minimum, too. So you can only drop his pay by a certain percentage – year b being x -0.3x or somesuch.

In other words, you couldn’t pay a guy $60m in the uncapped year, and $1m for the next 5. It has to be (mostly) proportional, you can’t take advantage of the uncapped year too much.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting insight into the financial state of NFL teams.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/nfl/super-bowl/02/03/ravens.bisciotti.ap/index.html

“I’ve got partners out there right now whose teams are making less money than their linebackers. I think we’ve got an acute problem here with the general profitability of the teams,” [Raven’s owner] Bisciotti said. “We always knew this was not a big cash-flow business, but when you’ve got guys like Jacksonville tarping up 10,000 seats to stop blackouts, when you’ve got teams that are voluntarily staying at the minimum of what they have to spend on the salary cap in order to not go upside down financially, then we already have a structural problem.”

I don’t think the Pats are in this position, but it’s something to consider when paying players, ESPECIALLY with a looming 2011 lockout.

by nbradley07 on Feb 3, 2010 9:11 PM EST reply actions  

The bad thing

is that somtimes you spend more money on more people to replace 1 guy so thats takes up roster spots and cash

by Patsfan4life on Feb 3, 2010 10:12 PM EST reply actions  

Very true, especially in a position like Nose Tackle

San Diego lost their NT (who is dramatically underrated), and had to have a revolving door of players merely to fill the spot. It took up two or three roster slots, AND their total salary is what the initial NT was getting. It’s a money-saving technique to have an every-down defensive lineman, especially if you’ve got guys on the roster who can actually fill in at a pinch.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Say what you will, but the Colts do not have what it takes-other than Manning- they will get beaten down by the Saints!!

Those of you who think you know everything just annoy those of us who do!!

by Sully F on Feb 4, 2010 12:48 AM EST reply actions  

Great contribution to the discussion, btw.

(rolls eyes)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Feb 4, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

He should have added

“so there!” and stamped his foot just to really put him in his place.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 4, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh...I'm waiting for a great response.

lol

So, how’s all the draft talk going? =-)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Feb 4, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

eh... can't get too excited about it yet

The way the Patriots trade down, at this time of year I always feel like I’m window shopping at Tiffany’s. I have the same chance of walking away with a shiny diamond necklace as the Patriots do of picking one of the draftee’s I’ve had my eye on for months.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 4, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

at least for prospects you feel will go first round

The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)

by TheAngelsColts on Feb 4, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

This year, the first two rounds are first-rounders

a lot of underclassmen are declaring early, because they don’t want to get screwed out of lucrative rookie contracts that are likely to be capped after this year. That means that pool of first-round-quality talent is deeper – the top 64 picks are going to be very talented players. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Hoodie trades down – he’s going to want to get first-round talent at second-round price, and this is definitely the year where that’s possible – in fact, it’s almost impossible not to do it, given the situation.

On the flipside, at least he’ll be likely to get good player(s) out of it – and two first-round guys coming from one first-round pick is easier to swallow.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Feb 4, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The Patriot Way

I think it says a lot about the caliber of players the Patriots have had on their roster this decade. I won’t say “lucky enough to have on their roster”, but selectively so. I think it’s been taken for granted that that way – that competitive, battling, winning attitude – would always prevail in that locker room no matter what. Unfortunately it departed with the loss of too many high-character veteran leaders at once, and the rest of the team went rudderless for a while until it was too late for even Brady or Faulk to whip it back up.

Keep in mind 2009 was the first – and only – season since Hoodie’s been running the show that anyone could ever say there was a lack of heart or any win-at-any-cost killer instinct, where the players as a team would consistently play above their abilities and spur each other on to greater achievements.

Who’s going to lead the backerhood? Mayo has to earn that right to speak up with his on-field play, and he could be one of those guys in 2010. Once AD is gone, and his negative energy with him, they can build up something good with their own way of motivating each other, working harder and willing to find their own ways to win.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 4, 2010 9:06 AM EST reply actions  

I really wish we knew what Wilfork is asking for so that we could make better opinions on the matter

If he is asking for Haneysworth money then Big Vince is crazy… but if he is asking for a deal similar to what Mike Reiss proposed and the Pats are still denying him then Mr. Kraft has some “’splainin to do”.

by bbismyhero on Feb 4, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

Patriots and Value!

I hate value I want to see a dominating team built w/ leaders not rejects. Maybe the could be a value team and have value seats to accomidate a half full Gilllette Stadium and perhaps serve a value meal to all that show up to watch!
With an uncapped season they better reward core players and not send a message threw the locker room that we don’t pay here but come play so we can trade you for picks.

by stevedc74 on Feb 4, 2010 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

You hate value?

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the Patriots’ personnel approach. They aren’t looking to underpay everyone. Rather, they place different “values” on different players based on skill and position. For example, the team places extremely high value on Tom Brady, not only because he’s a great player, but because he’s a great Quarterback – an extremely valuable position. Conversely, they do not value corners very highly (at least it seems they don’t). As a result, they weren’t willing to “overpay” players like Samuel and Law, who were good corners, but not “valuable” enough, under the Pats system, to sign to mega-contracts.

They’re not on some quest to underpay every player – they simply have a philosophy, tailored to the salary cap, that ensures they are competitive from year to year (which, largely, they have been). And as for your comment about Seymour getting traded, are you really complaining that they got a 1st round pick for one year of a defensive lineman on the downside of his career?

by nbradley07 on Feb 4, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

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