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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Relax about the Patriots FA signings already

Everyone is a little hysterical about the lack of movement on the part of the Patriots but i think they are playing this year perfectly.  Its a very different game then usual because of the lack of a cap.  Additionally lets assume that for all intent and purpose that the second round picks are 1st rounders because its said there is 1st talent in the second.  So the Pats then have 4 1st (better because they arn't at 1st prices) and more picks later, they also have 2 firsts next year when they will really matter because everything else will be garbage after the 1st due to the Juniors coming out this year.  So they have a lot of bargaining chips to play with.  What this all means after the jump.


Star-divide

Ok so there are a lot of good RFA's on 2nd round tenders, sounds good except that a 2nd is better than a 1st B/C its the same talent level for less money.  So would you really give up a 1st for Greg Olson.  Hell no, so why would you give away something better in a 2nd?  Teams with these 2nd round tenders to players they really don't want or need will begin to lower what they will accept in place of the 2nd as we get closer and closer to the draft.  Also when we get to the draft day some teams lose it and trade away the future for a single targeted player who has dropped.  BB has always been willing to delay gratification as it comes to the draft and this has been of great benefit generally.  So maybe a high second gets traded for a lower second and we pick up a 3rd or 4th in the process and that pick becomes Olson thus getting him as a RFA for virtually nothing.  I think these type of moves will be rampant on the day of the draft.  Everything will be pretty quiet until then.  We have not overpaid for the best of a crappy FA period and have resigned our best players so I think we have done perfect to date.  I feel confident that there will be pokers in the fire come draft day and moves will come.  1st Post hope you enjoyed it. 

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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The things I am worried about

will undoubtedly be taken care of during the draft, but it is unsettling to have basically Moss and Edelman as the only sure thing WRs up to this point, and no TEs beyond the two practice squad guys. It left me scratching my head when they let loose with David Thomas, who did fine with the Saints. He was a good locker room guy too. That one never really made sense.

SO, on draft day, will Bill trade picks for experienced NFL RFA WRs, or bet on rookies like G Tate or A Benn (or others)? That’s the multimillion dollar question. Will he draft a TE in the second round? The only round he hasn’t drafted one in, according to what someone said in another post. A Hernandez looks mighty good in his highlights, running over CBs with power and good moves after displaying excellent hands receiving.

Will they find their DEs and OLBs (Kindle/Hughes/Graham/Odrick/??) to get after the QB?

Do they pull the trigger on someone like CJ Spiller or Matthews in the running game, or stay put til 2011?

I guess the last couple things are me just typing thoughts, but the first two items are what’s on a lot of our minds I think.

by Ozstryker on Mar 11, 2010 1:03 AM EST reply actions  

History suggests yes, he will

Belichick’s history in free agent pickups suggests he’ll do one of two things. He either:

(a) scams other teams who are looking to shed veterans for discipline/personality/salary reasons by trading draft picks to snag them (Corey Dillon, Randy Moss); or
(b) he waits until teams cut servicable but unnecessary veterans after the draft rookies in those respective positions, and picks them up at a discount (Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell).

He’s never been a huge first-days-of-free-agency guy (bar a couple of exceptions). It’s usually come later, and often quite successfully.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Mar 11, 2010 3:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Agree entirely and think both are possible

I think b/c of the RFA thing this year there will be plenty of both options and the first will come cheaper(lower round picks than usual esp for teams trying to cut salaries in smaller markets) and that there will be even more of the second

by gnatecolby on Mar 11, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't say "everyone" is hysterical

But there’s definitely that contingent. It reminds me a lot of the folks who said we should trade Tom Brady and fire Hoodie.

by RSNexile on Mar 11, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions  

In fairness, there's more legitimacy to it there

I think, anyway — I haven’t been there in a while. But the Celtics have blown a lot of games they should have won over the past two months, KG has been hurt much of the year and no one thinks he’s 100%, Pierce keeps getting hurt, Allen is getting old, and most of the rest of the team (Rondo excepted) has underperformed.

by RSNexile on Mar 11, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

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