2010 New England Patriots Draft Review: Part II

Suddenly players will be paid according to their gifts rather than their draft slots. So Eric Berry, as the best player in the draft, will actually be taken first, because the team that takes him doesn’t need to worry about dropping $60M guaranteed on him solely because he’s the first guy taken. That means two things:
a) players will get taken where they deserve to be taken, not solely because they’re a QB or OT; and
b) that theres not the financial incentive to drop right out of the top-5, top-10, top-20. Ndamukong Suh is a fine player, but is he $5M better than Gerald McCoy? Is he $20M better than Tyson Alualu? Is he $30M better than Jared Odrick? If all those pay rates were closer together, teams would have more interest in going up to get Suh or McCoy rather than save 50% of his pay and take a guy who is only 20% less effective.

In other words, if there’s a rookie salary cap, and players were all paid a more similar amount, Hoodie would most likely revert to his 1990s drafting scheme and be happy with players in the top-10. Safeties at 2nd overall? With a rookie pay scale, that’s far, far more likely.

Is the player worth what you’d end up paying him for the spot. If Bill were sitting at #5 and a player he wanted (would fit the scheme, yada yada) that had #5 value were available he would take him. If he looked around and thought that he could get that same player at #7, sure he would drop (and pick up an additional draft pick as well – maybe a Julian Edelman). If he were sitting at #10, and there was a #7 value on the board that fit the team and need, he would definitely call about moving up. If he could do it without selling out the rest of the draft, I’m sure he would.

This draft was definitely about filling holes and adding depth. The defense has been a youth movement for three consecutive years. The offense has just started getting younger the last two. Getting rid of draft picks to move up would have made sense if we were just one or two guys away from being set. We weren’t.

Our defense was spotty last year. D-Line, OLB, and quality CB’s were a need.

Our offense struggled. #3 and #4 receivers are yet to be defined. RB was a little above average, but not a point of strength. Tommy struggled, and the O-line was held together with duct tape. Kaczur, Light, and Neal have all seen better days.

Because of the scheme the Pats can win without standouts at every skill position. They are going to struggle in the playoffs, though. 2007 was the last hurrah of the old guard, and we’ve been getting younger since. If some of these guys end up making the team, I think we’ll have fewer holes to patch next year. If that happens, Bill will be more likely to use the draft picks he has with the caveat that the value still has to be there.

But I think you mean WHEN one of the oldies goes to IR haha. But in all seriousness, like you said, I would expect the Patriots to bring in another back in the coming weeks, at least for some training camp competition.

But if we’re relying on BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Pat Paschall as our running backs in 2010, we’ve got some problems.

The Pats have always invested high-round picks and/or high-level free agents at Safety. There’s never been a significant gap between Milloy, Harrison and Meriweather, or Eugene Wilson, James Sanders and Pat Chung. Compare that to some of the CBs the Pats have fielded over the years – Delta O’Neal, Earthwind Moreland, and even Troy Brown.

If a team boasts an extrordinary secondary, it can more than make up for a mediocre pass rush because Defensive plays can be called to send LB in aggressive blitz packages. When that happens, I don’t care how dynamic the offensive line happens to be, The ONLY way to beat that defensive package is for the QB to recognize it and get the ball off before he’s on his a$$. seeing 6 guys rushing up the gut gives the average QB about 2.5 seconds to make magic happen.

The opposite is NOT nearly as true! Meaning….. an above average pass rush does NOT bail out a mediocre secondary with nearly as much success. No matter how many advanced coverage schemes a defense calls, if a play calls for no blitz, great receivers can most always find seams or holes in the coverage and an above average QB will find them 75% of the time even though the seams are ridiculously tight.

So, if a team’s secondary is average or worse, it’s nearly suicide for them to blitz with any regularity. The Reggie Waynes, Brandon Marshalls, Marques Colstons and Randy Mosses of the league (as well as their respective QBs) lick their chops when they read blitz. A 6’4" Wideout running a post against a 5’ 11" Corner….. The offense usually wins!

That’s why there’s no clear philosophy; different defender types work in different defences.

A blitz heavy team, irrespective of type (3-4, 4-3, Tampa 2) need a better-than average secondary because their linebackers and/or safeties are going to be blitzing. If you take the Jets as the example, they need on-an-island CBs, because if they didn’t have a guy that’s on the WR like a rash, then a good QB will carve them up. They live and die by CB play – pass-rushers mean jack if the QB can just stack all his HBs and TEs in tight to disrupt the pass-rush and throw to his #1 receiver all day. Heavy blitz teams need to shut down #1 and #2 receivers, and that means very good CBs. The exception is if you have a very, very good, very quick safety who plays more like a CB as it is – say, Ed Reed. Either way, it’s all about shutting out receivers from being able to make quick receptions, and that’s usually done by CBs.

A team that does a lot of disguise-based defensive looks (the Pats, the 2009 Saints) needs particularly versatile safeties and linebackers. The cornerbacks only need to be so-so; most of the big plays are going to be done either in tight by linebackers, or done deep by roving safeties (Rodney Harrison or Darren Sharper-types). The corners are there mostly to contain the WRs – it tends towards a bend-but-don’t-break defence, so ideally they only allow short gains and try to limit big plays. Having good Safeties and LBs is key to this kind of defence.

A team can also be a hybrid. The Steelers use a lot of zone-blitzes, so they need fairly versatile linebackers (albeit leaning towards mostly being pass-rushers), but it really needs great safeties more than CBs. A Steelers defence without great safety play is hopeless; the 2009 Steelers were dead in the water as soon as Troy Polamalu went down. It can, however, get away with only so-so CB play as long as the safeties and linebackers are playing well.

In other words – what your ‘premium’ position is really depends on the type of D you’re running. The more aggressive it is, the more likely you need ball-hawks and pass-rushers, so CBs and 4-3 DEs or 3-4 OLBs. The more disguise-based or bend-but-don’t-break it is, the more the focus is on Safeties and linebackers. It’s a rough guide, but there’s really no clear “this position means most” because it depends on the defence type.

Finally, a team that runs Tampa-2 type defence (Tampa, the Colts) don’t need standouts anywhere in particular in the secondary; it needs very consistent, but not showy players back there and in the LB corps, and the playmakers are on the D-line, particular the DEs.