Off-Season New England Patriots Questions: Wide Receivers
by Richard Hill on May 20, 2010 1:15 PM EDT
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintThe New England Patriots ended the 2009 season with a clear problem on offense- there was no #3 receiver on the roster. There were players who could be a potential #4 or #5 on the depth chart, but no player had the necessary skills to be a successful and consistent #3.
Looking over the past years, one can see how the Patriots offense typically spread the ball to its receivers- and how last year compared. What type of distribution leads to success and what type leads to demise?
2001 -
1) Troy Brown - 33% of pass completions, 36% of receiving yards
2) David Patten - 17% of pass completions, 23% of receiving yards
Others) No real #3, but the running backs and tight ends split the rest of the receptions.
2002 -1) Troy Brown - 26% of pass completions, 24% of receiving yards
2) David Patten - 16% of pass completions, 22% of receiving yards
3) Deion Branch - 11.5% of pass completions, 13% of receiving yards
Others) Running backs and tight ends made up the rest of the receptions.
2003 -
1) Deion Branch - 18% of pass completions, 22% of receiving yards
2) Troy Brown - 13% of pass completions, 13% of receiving yards
3) David Givens - 11% of pass completions, 14% of receiving yards
4) Bethel Johnson - 5% of pass completions, 5% of receiving yards
Others) Mostly tight ends and running backs (with Faulk being the #2 receiver on the team).
2004 -
1) David Givens - 19% of pass completions, 24% of receiving yards
2) David Patten - 15% of pass completions, 22% of receiving yards
3) Deion Branch - 12% of pass completions, 12% of receiving yards
4) Troy Brown - 6% of pass completions, 5% of receiving yards
5) Bethel Johnson - 3% of pass completions, 5% of receiving yards
2005 -
1) Deion Branch - 23% of pass completions, 24% of receiving yards
2) David Givens - 18% of pass completions, 18% of receiving yards
3) Troy Brown - 12% of pass completions, 11% of receiving yards
4) Tim Dwight - 6% of pass completions, 8% of receiving yards
5) Andre Davis - 3% of pass completions, 5% of receiving yards
2006 -
1) Reche Caldwell - 19% of pass completions, 22% of receiving yards
2) Troy Brown - 13% of pass completions, 11% of receiving yards
3) Chad Jackson - 4% of pass completions, 4% of receiving yards
4) Jabar Gaffney - 3.5% of pass completions, 4% of receiving yards
Other) Tight ends and running backs were big players in the offense, being 5/7 top receivers
2007 -
1) Randy Moss - 25% of pass completions, 31% of receiving yards
2) Wes Welker - 28% of pass completions, 24.5% of receiving yards
3) Donte Stallworth - 11.5% of pass completions, 14.5% of receiving yards
4) Jabar Gaffney - 9% of pass completions, 9% of receiving yards
Other) Kevin Faulk and Ben Watson helped out in the receiving game.
2008 - 327 3700
1) Wes Welker - 34% of pass completions, 31.5% of receiving yards
2) Randy Moss - 21% of pass completions, 27% of receiving yards
3) Jabar Gaffney - 11.5% of pass completions, 13% of receiving yards
Other) Running backs helped out on short passes and Watson had minor contributions.
2009 -
1) Wes Welker - 31.5% of pass completions, 30% of receiving yards
2) Randy Moss - 21% of pass completions, 28% of receiving yards
3) Julian Edelman - 9.5% of pass completions, 8% of receiving yards
4) Sam Aiken - 5% of pass completions, 7% of receiving yards
Other) RBs and TEs helped out as usual.
Analysis after the jump!
After looking at those numbers, one can make a general assessment for what it takes for the Patriots to have a successful season:
#1 receiver gets around 23% of pass completions.
#2 receiver gets around 17% of pass completions.
#3 receiver gets around 12% of pass completions.
#4 receiver gets around 8% of pass completions.
Utilizing this distribution, receivers should get around 60% of the passing yards- which works out well with running backs and tight ends getting the remaining 40%. If the #1 receiver gets so many passes in their direction, then other players are unable to help with the offense. When an offense funnels through such a concentrated filter, defenses have a much easier job defending- double team the #1 and bring support on the #2. There are no other players able to take advantages of mismatches and the offense stalls.
A #1 receiver getting slightly above 20% of the completions means that they're still the man, but other players are contributing as well.
A #2 getting slightly below 20% means that they're almost contributing as much as the #1, but are still allowing the ball to be spread.
A #3 with slightly above 10% means they're helping out on offense and that defenses must respect their influence on the offense.
A #4 with slightly under 10% allows the offense to spread the ball even further, opening the field for the top receivers. If the #4 is able and a threat that must be covered, the other receivers will put up better numbers due to less coverage.
Looking at the distribution, I think it is much more important for there to be a #3 receiver who gets 12+% of the passing completions than it is for the #1 and #2 to get 40% combined. The #3 who can reach 12+% will spread the field for his teammates and, if he can catch well, make some plays of his own.
This past season, the Patriots relied much to heavily upon Wes Welker and his ability to shift through the defenses. By using Welker as a safety blanket, no other receiver (except Moss) really had an impact on the offense, forcing the team to become one dimensional. With Moss playing the entire season injured and unable to be explosive, defenses just had to smother Welker (no easy task) in order to stop the offense.
With Welker out with an injury, it is up to Edelman and the rest of the receiving core to step up into their roles and command defensive coverage. If the quartet of Edelman, Holt, Price and Tate can combine for 40% of the teams' receptions, then the Patriots should have their potent offense back. If the offense is directed through Moss and Edelman, look for the Patriots to make another early exit from the playoffs- if they make it that far.
Questions:
1) How will the Patriots cope without Welker?
2) Who will emerge as the Patriots' #3?
3) Will the Patriots do a better job of spreading the ball next season?
Our current wide receiver core has the potential to be one of the most potent in the league; will everyone get on the same page and bring our offense back to the top of the NFL?
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wide recievers +tight ends
i think will be a plus position for us in the present and def in the future. i have a gut feeling welker is going to be back sooner then later. so with moss welker holt and with a much improved edelman this year we dont have to rush and throw tate and price to the wolves they can devolop on their own pace. I think this is moss last season in new england and were going to groom tate or price to replace him in the lineup not saying either one will be the next randy moss but i have high hopes for both tate and price. edelman man the kid was a qb in college and learned to be a wr as a pro how much better do u think he is going into year 2? I dont know what or why but they always say the wr position s the hardest to project for or produce at as a rookie and edelman stepped in as raw as can be and produced. The tight end position is going to be much improved with blocking crumpler and gronk and recieving with all 3. hernandez has dallas clark/cooley potential and i think gronkowski is going to be a huge threat in the red zone. Bottom line brady is going to have a plethora of great weapons at his disposal. holt is going to be a good role model and much more productive then galloway was last year. holt on jax last year 55 catches and around 700 to 800 yards with crappy passing offense and garrard throwing him the ball should be a little better on the pats hopefully.
only thing missing
was their NFL rank compared to other WR units. Very interesting.
"simul justus et peccator"
Football Outsiders ranks Pass Offense (which isn't restricted to WRs, but it's at least something)
2001: 10th
2002: 10th
2003: 12th
2004: 2nd
2005: 2nd
2006: 5th
2007: 1st
2008: 15th
2009: 2nd
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on May 20, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
With our shiny new TEs, I'm very optimistic
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on May 20, 2010 7:53 PM EDT reply actions
We’ve got TE’s who can catch with the best of them, and seemingly enough pieces to the WR puzzle to make it work. Holt is eager to benefit from the attention paid to Moss, and Moss is healthy again. Edelman, while he’s no longer a surprise to opposing defenses, will be improved and that bodes well. Tate is gunna be gunning to earn his stripes and Price has the pop to catch some people off guard…granted both of them will be handled with care and not rushed thanks to the addition of Holt.
Wouldn’t mind a more threatening young gun cus of Moss and Holt’s age but we’ll see what Tate, Price and Edelman turn out to be.
Overall, Brady’s got some interesting targets…not too worried.
play calling
I continue to question the decision to forgo the hiring of a Weiss level “O” coordinator. I might be in the minority, but the Super Bowl loss fell directly on the back of McDaniels who had NO answer [zero ability] to counter the moves of the “D” coordinator from the Giants. That game should not have come down to last minute heroics. And, if everyone is honest with their assessment of that season’s offensive output, it is not a stretch to imagine Weiss at the helm exceeding those 2007 records by a lot. That offensive unit was in cruise control w/ a very limited, inexperienced “O” coordinator at the helm.
Last season, the Pats were ridiculously one dimensional on offense.
Recognizing many other factors, one cannot ignore the simple fact that the Pats have not one a Super Bowl since Weiss and Crennel exited. With Bill at the helm, I have zero concerns about the “D” or Crennel’s absence. I do remain concerned with the absence of Weiss. Had they not lost Weiss or replaced him with a legitimate “O” coordinator, we’d probably be looking at 4 or 5 Super Bowls – not just three.
First of all, it's ridiculously hard to get to the Super Bowl and even harder to win it
2006 came close, 2007 even closer, 2008 out of the running (but still a pretty darn good and entertaining season considering), and 2009—well, let’s just forget 2009 ever happened.
I was with you for a bit with wanting Weiss back in town, and having Crennel (or anyone) over Dean Pees. Weiss and Belichick are still close friends, and you have to figure that they talked about this but for whatever reasons it wasn’t going to happen. Maybe it was Weiss that wanted independence from Belichick, just like Belichick wanted independence from Parcells – who knows?
Don’t forget that the 2007 offense had the lead with 2 minutes left to go in that Super Bowl. Even though it was up to the defense to stop the Giants at that point, I agree that the offense looked different in that game. In hindsight, sticking with the dink-and-dunk to Welker, for example, instead of looking for the big strike might have been more effective.
But it’s hard to get any offensive plan going when your quarterback is on his back.
Keep the faith!
I remember it being a timing thing for getting Weiss
The Chiefs hired him one day before the Pats could legally (NFL wise) even talk to him about the job.
Super Bowl
I would contend that Brady spent most of the game on his back or rushed feverishly because of the play calling – or lack thereof by McDaniels. I agree that slants, curls, and delayed releases with the tight end after hitting the DE would have changed the Giant’s all out rush very quickly. It was frustrating and disappointing to see McDaniels exposed at the expense of a phenominal team and, us, its fans.
Looking ahead, O’Brien certainly leaves me [I suspect many Pat’s fans] feeling equally concerned. Last year, his play calling was awful.
I had Gronkowski as my draft pick. Period. For me, this draft was all about getting Gronkowski [the next Ben Coates]. I knew the rest of the draft and needs would take care of itself. And, it did. Getting Hernandez and Gronkowski [along with Crumpler] is amazing. The defensive acquisitions in the draft and via free agency, coupled with Belichik running the “D”, have me believing that this will be the best “D” and “O” combination in Pat’s history.
Brady has outstanding options at his disposal. Belichik and his “D” will keep the Pat’s in every game awaiting the “O” to seal the victory. BUT, this all falls back onto O’Brien. If he performs like last year and on par with McDaniels, we will all be left holding another empty season wondering how a team as good as this could lose. The reason, barring injuries, will be O’Brien and his inability to adjust on the fly as the “O” coordinator.
Guys like McDaniels and O’Brien are fine until they are forced to adjust on the fly. That’s where they become exposed. They cannot make adjustments. They don’t have it in them. It’s no surprise that Denver slid pathetically after their unexpected 6-0 start. Other teams studied game film and made adjustments. McDaniels, true to his Super Bowl form, could not adjust during the game(s). He was lost and confused much like O’Brien.
This Pat’s team in my opinion is the forth coming Super Bowl Champion. The “D” acquisitions last year and this year will shine. The “O” acquisitions with Brady’s knee injury well behind him will be another 2007 dominant group – provided that O’Brien shows amazing improvement or Brady is given more license to audible at the line of scrimmage.
McDaniels couldn't adjust during the game?
You do remember that the Pats were leading for all but a smidgen of that game, and when they lost, it was the D that broke, not a Colts-like pick-6 failure on offence, right?
It was a personnel issue as much as anything – the Pats O-line just weren’t athletic enough to deal with Strahan, Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Kawika Mitchell. You could argue that the Pats should’ve responded with a bunch of screens to Welker, but that would be playing to the Giants game-plan – they were clearly trying to take Randy Moss out of the game, and a screen-heavy playbook would be doing precisely what the Giants wanted. Given the fact the Pats scored enough points to be in a position to win (minus one Asante Samuel dropped interception and one blown Asante Samuel blown coverage [aka Helmet-catch]), it’s a bit rough to blame it all on McDaniels.
Further, consider this: a McDaniels-called offence, minus IR-bound players Tom Brady (starting QB) and Laurence Maroney (starting HB), and with a swag of injuries to key players in Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan and Ben Watson, ended up with an 11-5 record. Matt Cassel put together stats befitting a Pro Bowl season (he did better than Favre, who made the AFC Pro Bowl squad!). What more could McDaniels have done?
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions
14 points
I still find it difficult to acknolwedge 14 points as a solid output. I felt the game should not have come down to last minute heroics. Too much emphasis is placed on 3rd down efficiency when more analysis should be applied to 1st and 2nd down play calling [and gains].
We’d need to watch the game play by play to see how often the Pats ran pass routes shorter than 10 yards in length. THOSE are the plays that determine 3rd down efficiency. We also need to assess each play that was called when a sack occured.
I am willing to bet that all the sacks happened because the passing routes were too long and took too long to develop. And, coupled with this criticism, I am willing to bet that the play called before the sack was equally unproductive [long pass route(s) as well] which led to a longer gain needed on the ensuing down [and the Giants bull rushed because of it].
We’re both Pat’s fans, and we both want a Super Bowl each season.
I’m just voicing a strong objection to replacing Weiss with someone as inexperienced as McDaniels [and those thereafter]. It continues with O’Brien. I feel this has been the single most influential reason the Pats are stuck on three Super Bowls. It is absurd to waste talent such as Brady, Moss, Welker, and etc. with this inside promotion plan of “O” coordinators.
Trust me, I want to be proven wrong by O’Brien. I just hope I am.
Agreed
I’m not sold on O’Brien, either. Not for the obvious reasons, but the guy doesn’t quite seem to grasp yet how to construct a drive. I hate to bring up 4th-and-2 again, but my real issue with that drive wasn’t the decision to go for it – that was correct. My issue was that they passed on 3rd-and-2. The Pats running game was equal with the ‘Phins for the fewest times stuffed on the line. In other words, the Pats were as good or better than anyone at making sure they got at least an inch out of any running play. So running it on 3rd-and-two would have done two things (1) eat game-clock (which is the point when you’re in the lead, right?) and (2) have gained something – maybe making it a 4th-and-1 or 4th-and-inches, or even a first down conversion. Instead it was an incompletion, a stopped gameclock, and set them up for a difficult conversion attempt. Dumb dumb dumb.
I also distinctly remember one particular situation where the Pulpit was following the game on the game thread, and Richard Hill said in advance something akin to “curl route to Welker for 3 yards, Maroney run left for 2 yards, incompletion to Moss, punt” prior to the drive being commenced, and it ran almost exactly as advertised. If a Pats fan (albeit, a rather enlightened one) can accurately predict an entire set of downs with play-calling and predict the outcome of such before Brady has even stood behind center, the playcalling has issues with predictability.
As a side-note, I’d have liked to have Weiss back, although I wonder if Weiss would have struggled to fit Moss into his slant and screen-heavy playbook.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That almost happened.
I think my prediction was, “Maroney up the middle for 2, Screen to Welker for 7, Incomplete deep pass to Moss, punt.”
In actuality, it went: Screen to Welker for 6, Maroney up the middle for 3, Incomplete deep pass to Moss ****BUT Pass interference gave the Patriots an automatic first down.
I was pretty close.
by Richard Hill on May 27, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
We should do what new orleans does
Have a bunch of #2 receivers and forget about anointing someone as a #1.
Last year was Moss, Welker, Welker, Welker, Moss,Welker , More Moss, More Welker etc. if your the defense, you know who to key in on. With that offense, Darelle Revis can shutdown 50% of the WR pass offense. This also neutralizes the effectiveness of Moss and Welker.
Bring Holt, Edelman, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price and even Crumpler into the mix. Swamp the field with receivers like New Orleans does and keep them guessing. I really like the potential that Tate, Price, Hernandez and Gronkowski will bring to the field. Gronkowski will improve red zone and have a dump point during blitzes.
Hah!
The Saints copied that blueprint off the 2003-2005 Patriots team – the Troy Brown/David Givens/ David Patten/ Bethel Johnson/ Deion Branch years. They’ve said as much, too.
I think part of the problem is that Brady’s getting towards the business end of a particularly successful career and his contract is up for negotiation soon (probably now!).
He loves playing with Moss and Welker, and he’s basically said that he will take a pay-cut to ensure he’s throwing at top-level WR – he restructured his own contract to make room for Moss’s previously. The flip-side of that could be that if you take away his precious WRs, he’s going to stand firm and demand every cent that he’d otherwise be paid. So it might be a nice idea in principle, but at the risk of enraging your franchise QB, you don’t do it.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Darrelle Revis = virtually No Moss
He may love playing with Moss but what will he do when they are playing the NY Jets.
BB and Brady either expands the passing options or stick a fork in the patriots hopes for a super bowl.
Remember that before this year, the Patriots didn’t have anybody but Moss and Welker. Edelman was mostly still a struggling rookie.
Now they have added Tate, Gronkowski, Hernandez. Edelman, Holt and even a more athletic Crumpler, there is no excuse to focus on Moss and Welker anymore. Moss won’t be around in 2 or 3 years so Brady will have no choice but to bring a lot more people into the mix.
They should even be able to weather injuries at almost all the positions since they have a lot more depth. This is a requirement for a super bowl team.
Agreed to a point
But if you had a choice as a QB of throwing to a WR that you’ve thrown 50 TD passes at over the last three years, or a fourth-round draft pick rookie you’ve known for a month, who’s getting the ball? It’s not so much an ‘excuse’ to throw to Moss, but a recognition that the guy is special. He’s got 120 NFL TDs to his credit for a reason, after all.
Brady rode Moss/Welker to a Superbowl before; while he’ll love having a plethora of new, shiny targets (all QBs do), I’d be surprised if he stops throwing to Moss merely because Gronkowski or Hernandez or Tate are on the field, too. It’ll be a balance, but I’d still expect Moss to be the clear #1 option if he’s open.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If I were a QB,..
If I were a QB, I would probably throw it to the guy who got open first. What round they were drafted in wouldn’t matter. If more than one got open at same time, I would probably throw it toward the weaker coverage.
There is nothing wrong with passing to Moss but we all know that Revis virtually shut him down. He can also be taken out with double coverage. If Brady wants him more available as a receiver, he needs to send a message to other teams that they will be burnt badly if they put too many resources against Moss or Welker (when he returns).
You used the word – balanced. That’s the key to a dominating passing offense.
Moss - adjusted
Given Welker’s statistical edge over Moss in receptions and [for all intense purposes] press coverage as well, Moss seems to be perfectly fine with this recent shift in attention. That speaks volumes to his having bought into the team concept. Likewise, I sense Moss wants that elusive Super Bowl ring. I expect him to stay put with the Pats unless a true Super Bowl contender emerges [besides the Pats] that is willing to pay him absurd dollars.
I agree w/ Prioris that Moss will enjoy greater success if Brady spreads it around as he did earlier in his career. Moss provides that fabulous knock out punch capability. You distribute the ball to whomever the “D” allows unchecked. You move the chains and cause uncertainty on the “D”. You have Moss as a homerun hit once the safeties bite on other options.
I don’t agree that any single “D” back can shut down Moss or any #1 receiver. It requires assistance: from safety support to “D” line pressure. Rives cannot stop Moss if Brady has time and the safeties have other concerns to focus on, besides Moss.
That’s where play calling and pass distribution make all the difference. A few TE slants behind the linebackers, a few inside slants by the slot receiver, and a few curls underneath and the safeties are forced to re-adjust their positioning. Leave Rives [or any “D” back] on an island with a #1 receiver and the QB / #1 success is unstoppable.
Moss, like any #1, is just as dependable on play calling as everyone else on the “O”.
The Pats play calling has been abismal of late: simply awful. This season will be a real test to this criticism. The passing targets have never been better or more varied. The RB committee is equally diverse and capable. Their success, however, is determined by play calling as well.
I am a huge believer in using the delayed release of the tight end after he hits the DE or OLB. It creates all types of hesitancy on the “D”. If they fight through the TE block, the TE releases for an inside slant. If the “D” holds the TE block, Brady has extra time to look down field.
In my view, TE receptions should be short passes that are reactionary routes based on the “D” response. The TE should be a counter punch to the “D”. They rush, he slants. They hold to his block, Brady looks down field and the TE employs a delayed release once recognizing that he has a non rusher in his midst.
I’ll put my prediction on the line today.
If the TE is re-introduced to the Pat’s offense to the tune of 8 receptions per game for 60 yards per game, and at least 1 red zone TD attempt per game, the Pat’s will win the Super Bowl.
Those are modest expectations, however they represent enough of a threat that WILL require the safeties to adjust their coverage concerns, their positioning, and their focus. Those adjustments, small as they may appear, will be all that is required for Moss and company to torch one on one coverage – and mismatches.
Go Pats ;-)
P.S. Is it too late to hire Steve Spurrier as the “O” coordinator.
excellent analysis
excellent analysis.
“TE receptions should be short passes that are reactionary routes based on the "D" response”. …
i agree with the statement above … it will make those opposing blitzes very risky and hopefully lessens the hits the QB takes
Gronkowski and Hernandez will be match up problems for the defenses when they mature in the system. Price will be like Crable, very interesting to watch since I view them as icing on the cake if they do succeed.
Like you, I hope they can find a way to integrate the TE into the passing games more.
good prediction
“If the TE is re-introduced to the Pat’s offense to the tune of 8 receptions per game for 60 yards per game, and at least 1 red zone TD attempt per game, the Pat’s will win the Super Bowl.”
couchpotato, I think you may be right about this
we all know that injuries will take some players out of the mix and that makes predictions always shaky but i think the patriots may be strong enough to weather them
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