A Message to New England Patriots Wide Receiver Julian Edelman

by Richard Hill on May 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT in Opinion/Analysis

I'll start off by saying, "Wes Welker is an All-World receiver. Julian Edelman is a sophmore receiver, one year removed from being a quarterback."

That said, I'll issue a challenge for young Edelman: Be something for the New England Patriots that Wes Welker wasn't. Don't be Welker. Be Edelman.

Now it's easy to assume that Edelman, who was accidentally called "Welker" early in the season, will be asked to emulate what Welker did for our offense. He'll run the short dump-off plays. He'll be the security blanket. He'll get the first down. He'll return punts. He'll be the man. But maybe he'll do something different.

Maybe he'll find the end-zone.

Wes Welker found the end zone 4 times last season, 3 of those times against the Tennessee Titans (remember how easy that game was?) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London!). He only scored once against a good team, and that was against the Denver Broncos. Now, if you look at the schedule, you'll realize that all 4 of those scores came in a 3 week span from Week 5 to Week 7. Welker didn't score after Week 7 (or after Week 8 if you want to count out the bye week).

Is that surprising? Welker seemed to carry the team on his back. But he really didn't score in the second half of the SEASON? Yeah. It shouldn't even be a surprise.

In 2008, with Matt Cassel at the helm, Welker was once again called upon to be a security blanket. He reached the end zone 3 times. A Week 7 41-7 blowout against the Denver Broncos, a Week 15 49-26 slaughter of the Oakland Raiders and a Week 16 47-7 romp of the Arizona Cardinals.

But what about 2007, during the year for the ages, when he scored 7 touchdowns? Only two of those touchdowns were in games where the Patriots won by under 10 points (and one, the AFCG against the San Diego Chargers was a 9 point game). The rest were in the regular blowouts.

Notice something?

Out of Welker's past 7 scores, only 1 has come in a competitive game. Out of his 14 scores with the Patriots, only 2 have come in games decided by under a touchdown. Only 1 came in a loss. For some reason, whether it be Welker's fault or the fault of the offensive scheme, Welker just can't find the end zone.

That's why I'm asking Julian Edelman to be Julian Edelman- not Wes Welker. We need a player who can move the chains, yes, so in that department PLEASE copy Welker; in fact, "Watch Wes...and see how it compares to [him]." Oh, he is? Excellent.

Now, about that end zone. Welker is a 5'9, 185 lbs body. He's not going to be out-jumping any player for a touchdown. With short yardage in front of him, it's much easier for a linebacker to play contain on Welker and prevent him from getting a touchdown. Edelman, on the other hand, is 6'0 and 200 lbs. That's 3 inches and 15 pounds. Edelman should be able to get the short yards needed for first downs in the open field, while muscling his way into the end zone for a touchdown.

I hope that Julian Edelman should have as much success in our offense as Wes Welker. I hope that he racks up the yards, that he's a lethal first down machine.

I just hope that he finds the end zone more frequently.

Poll

How will Julian Edelman fill Wes Welker's spot?

Same yards, Same TDs

26 votes

Same Yards, More TDs

48 votes

Same Yards, Less TDs

14 votes

Less Yards, Same TDs

61 votes

Less Yards, More TDs

200 votes

Less Yards, Less TDs

99 votes

More Yards, Same TDs

8 votes

More Yards, More TDs

58 votes

More Yards, Less TDs

5 votes

519 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Welker's number wasn't really called in the redzone.

Many run plays. A few shots at Moss. It was like, “Ok, Wes you did your 80 yards, we’ll take it from here.”

If Edelman has more opportunities, it won’t necessarily be because of physical gifts. It will probably be because of a change in offensive scheme.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on May 21, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

The same lack of scoring plagues Davone Bess in Miami

For one reason or another, he just isn’t one of the primary targets close to the goal line, and this will only be magnified with the addition of Marshall.

"To borrow a simile from the football field, we believe that men must play fair, but that there must be no shirking, and that the success can only come to the player who hits the line hard." — Theodore Roosevelt

by Chad Henne is Your New Bicycle on May 21, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The good players look at their contributions in the Win column.

Personal accolades, not so much.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on May 21, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Ain't that the truth.

by Chad Henne is Your New Bicycle on May 21, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

The continually heaped comparisons to Welker are pretty unfair.

Wes Welker does things that very few in the history of the NFL have done, and to think that life with Edelman won’t skip a beat is a tough pill to swallow. A lot of the blame can be attributed to television commentators who didn’t hesitate in labeling Julian as a “Welker clone”. Why? Because he’s a shifty, white guy of fairly diminutive frame who was targeted for eight receptions in Wes’ first absence. Julian can, and should be all that he can be, but there’s only one Wes Welker.

by Chad Henne is Your New Bicycle on May 21, 2010 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

we have trouble in the red zone

and our cure hopefully is going to be a guy named gronkowski !!!! i see great things from him esp inside the 20!!!!!!!!!!!! welker in the red zone sometimes gets swallowed up due to the fact its more congested just a guess. there is only 1 wes welker and i hope he is still wes welker when he gets back.

by Marc Curto on May 21, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Tight Ends

The tight ends will assume the lead in TD tallies once inside the 10 yard line. Crumpler and Gronkowski are huge targets. They have good hands, and they can shield the defender – even a linebacker. Given time to run their route while Brady looks off the safeties, either tight end will be an automatic TD.

by couchpotato on May 21, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

And with Hernandez as a 'move'-type TE...

That means if you’re wanting an ‘underneath’ receiver, for lack of a better word, you can choose to throw it to a 5’10" Edelman or 5’9" Welker… or a 6’3", 250lb Hernandez who can run at much the same pace as either Wes or Julian. With all due respect to the WRs, that extra 50+lbs means a lot in close contact at high speed when it comes to ploughing over the goaline.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Welker isn't usually in on goal line sets

They often have either Moss and/or another “big” receiver (such as Slater or Stanback). It’s not like Welker often has his number called down there. Considering the number of goal line rushing touchdowns, as well as targets to Watson and Moss, I wouldn’t say Welker’s lack of endzone production has much of anything to do with him. And whether or not his touchdowns came in blowouts or close games is really irrelevant; Wes makes plenty of big/clutch plays for us.

And yes, Edelman is a slightly bigger receiver, so it would make sense for him to be targeted more near the end zone, although I wouldn’t expect to see him rack up more than 6-8 touchdowns while Moss is on the team.

Don’t forget, Troy Brown never caught more than five touchdowns during the Brady era. Givens (a bigger, more physical receiver) never more than six. Branch, five. So when you look at it, Welker has had more touchdown production than all of those guys, not shabby.

by Greg Knopping on May 21, 2010 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

And the Pats have a brand-spanking new ‘big’ receiver in Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski and Crumpler likely have the on-the-line TE slots sewn up, but when it comes to that backup sometime-WR ‘big’ receiver, I wouldn’t bank on Slater or Stanback getting many reps on offence if Hernandez is 100% healthy. He’s too much of a matchup issue to leave off the field in that kind of situation, and his flexibility with recieving and blocking mean he’s even more of a threat in that kind of formation than either Slater or Stanback, even if he’s short on NFL experience.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 6:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Wes Welker

PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE dont knock Wes for not scoring TD’s. Guys that go over the middle , in traffic, dont have much chance to get to the end zone. They frequently are in the midst of the defensive core. It takes guts to take that route. Look at his YAC, its ALWAYS at or near the best in the league!! Lets hope he comes back as good as new asap!! In the meantime ;dont ask Edelman to be Welker, let him be himself and he’ll be fine. GO PATS!!!

by bostonal40 on May 21, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions

Ah, another Welker fan.

Welcome.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on May 21, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Now it’s easy to assume that Edelman, who was accidentally called “Welker” early in the season,

in the first pre season game of 09…the tv announcer said Wes w. the catch gets the first down….then i wondered why “Wes” changed his number

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

GO TEAM USA & then Brazil (World Cup 2010)

by NinjaZX6R on May 21, 2010 8:42 PM EDT reply actions

Few..

…observation from last year. Pritty often Welker (after helped the team inside the 5 yards) was taken off the field at least for the first 2 snaps. And Wes capable of many things, hell, maybe one day will be the first to score a TD from the side line, but until that day…
And when he actually played in at the goal line(or at least in the red zone): there were quiet a few cases where he was open(even wide open) but Tom choosed to, khm… “try to make Randy happy”.

Oh, and the good old revisionist history and short fan memory :P

About 2007: close games: well, one of them was the win against the Colts, and some of this “blow outs” were not so obvious when Welker scored: should I remind you 2 of his TDs against the Cowboys or one his TDs against the Steelers when both games still looked pritt much shoot out.

Also interesting to note: while the feeding of Moss looked important in the regular games, Brady was more aware of the chances given in the play offs: in 2007 Welker scored in 2 play off games (and to be fair: Garrad looked great in the Jaguars game, so you can add it to the not that clear blowouts: Pats needed an almost immaculate Brady to make that win clear (whereWes was on the receiving end of the Lady Liberty play :) ).

Similar to Edelman: he scored twice in the play offs after only getting 3 TDS on the regular.

One thing though: Most people mentions Edelman’s first game (wich was really strong: 8 catches and 98 yards. What they forget to remember: he catched 8 out of 16(!) passes, and there were some bad routs and key dropes(including one end zone drop…aka missed TD) Again: that game was unexpected by many and great from Edelman, but no, he was not “just like Welker”. To be more like Wes, Julian has to be better to find the holes in the defense before the ball arrives, need to make the toughest catches and and need to endure.

by frogfromthemud on May 21, 2010 9:07 PM EDT reply actions

just one side note to the latter

Wes Welker: 1 play off year and 2 TDs
Julian Edelman 1 play off year and 2 TDs

…a guy named Marvin Harrison do not know how many play off years but I know that 2 TDs. ;)

by frogfromthemud on May 21, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Richard.....

I’m pretty sure I’ve read ALL your posts and I’d further say I’m pretty sure I’ve read 90% of your comments over the last month. I find I agree with better than 95% of what rolls off your keyboard. When I consider the areas for which I disagree, I usually walk away admitting to myself how tedious it was and it was like “splitting hairs”. (I’ve learned it’s easy to do that……. OMG…No… you don’t say!)

With that said, this is the first time I’m gritting my teeth. And it’s not that I disagree with everything you hope will occur! I hope that too!

The issue I have is to say it’s uber easy for the average Joe to read this and SAY…. R.H. is comparing this Soph to this Pro Bowler. While I agree that’s not the case, I can easily see how the regular Joe will assume that based on the title of your post alone. I must say… I DID! I had to go back and read it a second time to see that you were hoping he develops with slightly different skills.

I really appreciated you passing on one of Edelman’s recent ESPN quotes in a previous post. That was:

“I’m not replacing Wes. You don’t replace a guy like Wes Welker. But I’ve been hearing it so much, you let it go in one ear and out the other. It’s unfair to him, ultimately, because he’s one of the best in the league and I’m just a guy trying to earn a job”.

I think you could have said EVERYTHING with much milder comparisons to Wes….. If any at all. You didn’t do that.

I still have great respect for your posts and hope you keep them coming. Thanks Dude!

by Bills friend on May 21, 2010 9:56 PM EDT reply actions

Good! Disagreement!

I’m not knocking Welker for not producing touchdowns and, if it seems as if I am, it’s not my goal.

I’m saying that Edelman has the opportunity to produce like Welker between the 20s WHILE producing in the red zone.

I know that Welker won’t be asked to score touchdowns. That’s not where his value is. I’m saying that maybe Edelman can have more value in the red zone than Welker, while still producing on the rest of the field.

Pats Pulpit

by Richard Hill on May 21, 2010 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

I know dude...

by Bills friend on May 21, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops pressed "enter" twice too quickly

I know dude, I got that.

But, I only got that by going back and reading it AGAIN. I think your TITLE just set the wrong tone for your message. I think you may (at least this time) underestimated the impact of the first few words.

Here’s how my silly little brain worked: I started reading the post under the impression you were going to highlight some sort of “CONTROVERSY” (as evidenced by the title) You really didn’t! Secondly, I also speculated it was your intention to create some form of invisible competition between the two players as result of the word “vs” (as evidence once again by the title). That was a bit trickier, but you really didn’t do that either.

Whenever the human brain considers the concept of competition (meaning man vs man) it’s somewhat natural to form a “good guy vs bad guy” mentality as one watches. Humans tend to favor one over the other and then form an alliance as they cheer for their favorite. It happens all the time. It’s what drives sports. I think Julian is doing everything possible to escape comparisons to Wes at this point and I personally feel we (who have great respect for the game) should honor that to some degree for BOTH athletes.

The second sentence in the body of your post completely contradicted your title. The reader, if he is careful, should grasp that…. Yet, for a numbskull like me, I couldn’t get those bold letters at the top out of my head as I read. The only reason why I was able to see the big picture what-so-ever was because I made the decision to offer a strong rebuttal and wanted to make sure I wasn’t mis-interpreting you! So, I went back! Turned out I WAS (to some degree). But I still wrote it because I feel a writer is always responsible for the correct delivery of his message. While the “reader” is also responsible as he / she forms an opinion, I believe it’s less than half as much

I think the one thing I appreciate about guys like you the most is your ability to take constructive criticism without it getting personal. Hat’s off to you guy.

by Bills friend on May 21, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah that's true!

I actually thought about that before I submitted it, but I wasn’t sure if anyone would take it that way. I’ll change it!

Pats Pulpit

by Richard Hill on May 22, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

interesting

“I’m saying that Edelman has the opportunity to produce like Welker between the 20s WHILE producing in the red zone.”

And I’m saying you are probably wrong in both cases. And this is not about what Edelman can or can not do. It’s about the personnels the Pats have now.

Between the 20s: If Gronkowski and Hernandes are as advertised, the Pats has a lot more 2 TE plays (maybe ven 3 TEs, using one of them as FB), and using Moss as the only Wr. The fact that the Pats could use actual Tes, who can block and catch should give more flexibility to them. They could even play spread out offens with 2 TEs, Gronk and Hernandez. The Pats could try to play again TE screens, what they almost totally forgot lately.

Also, if at least one guy from Tate, Holt and Price could produce(and there is a chance there would be more then one will), than simply Brady will not be forced to look automaticly to Edelman if Moss wass blanketed (as last year he was with Wes)

In the red zone: closer you go to the end zone you start to value a different kind of space from the receiver. If you are far from the line: you value the space your receiver can find on the filed. When you are close to the line, you valus more end more the value the space between the arms of your receiver. And you will hardly beat Gronkowski in that regard. Also, a 6’2"", 245lb Hernandez looks more temting endzone target, than the 6’0", 195 Edelman. So my guess would be: no more TDs for Julian, simply because his number will not be called to.

I put this further: if Edelman will be forced to try to get the same numberrs, as Wes had last year, then the Pats are in trouble. Because that would mean a bad season by Gronkowski, Hernadez, Holt, Tate and Price…

by frogfromthemud on May 22, 2010 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Good points all around

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on May 22, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Good points...

…but that’s assuming that our offense produces the same as last season. Our running backs become another year older and, in my opinion, another year more unreliable. If we pass the same amount this upcoming year as we did last year, I’ll be extremely surprised. I don’t see why Edelman can’t produce at a Welker-like rate, before Welker returns, while the other players also produce. That would just mean that everyone is doing better on offense.

I see Moss putting up a 70 catch, 1000 yard, 12 TD season. I can see Edelman putting up 10 catch, 80 yard, 1 TD games while he’s on the field. I can also see our Tight Ends combining for 50 or 60 catches for 800 yards and 10 TDs. If our other wide receivers can combine for another 60 catches, 1000 yards and 6-7 TDs, I’ll be happy- and that’s all I’m expecting.

I’m expecting our slot receivers (Edelman + Welker) to post up numbers similar to what Welker’s done in the past (although their numbers will be combined). Our other receivers will continue to draw passes away from Moss, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Our tight ends will get more looks this upcoming year than in the past year.

I don’t see why Edelman doing well and the rest of our offensive players being integral parts of the offense have to be mutually exclusive. Both can happen. In fact, I expect both to happen.

Pats Pulpit

by Richard Hill on May 22, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, let's do the math

12 TD for Moss
1 TD/game..for Edelman..well, lets take the half of it…8 TD (combined with Welker)
10 TD for the TE-es 6-7 for the other WR-s
Give boldly 2-3 passing TD-s for the “unreliable” and old RB-s

Now yards
Welker and Edelman combined 1700 yards last year..let’s give them only…1500
Let’s give Moss the 1000 yards
1000 to the other WR-s
800 to the TE-es
Let’s give the RB-s 400 yards (brutal drop, since in 2009 they get 600 passing yards)

You gave an about 4700 yards, 40 TDs year to Tom Terrific. Well, you are brave, Mr. Hill. :)

(Just a little reminder: the Patriots during the painful year of 2009 were 3rd in both passing yards and total offense, and was 6th in scoring offense, had 26.7 points/game.)

by frogfromthemud on May 22, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if the TEs will be used for Red Zone plays rather than pure yardage

Especially when they’ve got Torry Holt on the team. He doesn’t have the breakaway speed he once did, but his route-running and hands are as good as anyone, so I’d he highly surprised if he didn’t put out Gaffney (or Gaffney+) numbers – say, 500-700 yards. I wouldn’t think he’d get many TDs, so any extra TDs are likely to be aimed at Moss and the TEs. Tate and White might chip in a collective 300-500 yards, too.

Given my rough numbers, I’m thinking maybe 1200 yards to the ‘other’ WRs – Holt, Tate, White – and maybe only 400-500 to the TEs (but those yards will be in the 20s or as fourth-option reads).

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on May 22, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't...

…seem too far out of the question. A year back on his feet, plus improved offensive weapons? He went 4400 yards with with 28 TDs- and that was without a longball threat. I can easily see him getting 300 more yards and 10 more TDs next year, if he includes his tight ends and our #3 receiver produces.

But I did mean, and sorry for not better showing it, that Welker + Edelman in 2010 would = Welker’s 2009 output. Meaning I think that combined they’ll put up around 1300 yards.

Pats Pulpit

by Richard Hill on May 23, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt Edleman will get Welker's production.

2007 112 catches
2008 111 catches
2009 123 catches

Why? Because the previous record was set by Troy Brown: 101 catches, his highest output ever.

Tommy wasn’t there in 2008, and he was there with Brown, so it’s obvious Welker’s production isn’t just due to Tommy terrific.

Either you believe his production is solely due to Moss being on the field, or Welker is something special.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on May 23, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

…of course you can see many things with some imaginatior… or some psychedelic stuff. :D

On the other hand…

Yards: Mr. Manning during his best year(yep, the 49 TD year) produced a “pedestrian” 4556 yards, Mr. MArino had better year once (the 48 TD, 5000+ YDs year),, Mr. Brees was above 4500 once, in his almost record breaking 2008 campaign, Mr Young and Mister Montana were nowhere near this high…umm, eva, (same goes to Mr. McNabb or Mr.Palmer for that matter.)

TDs: the only player who went above 40 TDs twice was Mr. Marino’s Miami Twice(ok, that was lame I admit :) )

So while I WISH and WANT Mr. Brady to do a 4700+yards and 40+TDs year, Mr. (or Ms, not sure) History says: it’s a long shot.

But if Mr. Brady would do this, that would be history itself. And could mean a year ending with many drunk Patriots fan. (OK, I take this back, that probably happenes anyway :D )

by frogfromthemud on May 23, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions