Projecting a Patriots' 53 Man Roster: Version 2.0
by Greg Knopping on Jul 11, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
in Opinion/Analysis
22 comments
Shortly after the 2010 NFL Draft, I made a prediction of what I thought the Patriots' 53 man roster would look like on September 12th against the Bengals. Now, I'm at it again. Of course, the Patriots final roster will probably look nothing like this. But I'll give it my best, and I'll do it again every week or two during training camp and the preseason as well.
Offense
Quarterback: 1. Tom Brady | 2. Brian Hoyer
Running Back: 1. Laurence Maroney | 2. Kevin Faulk | 3. Sammy Morris | 4. Fred Taylor | 5. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Wide Receiver: 1. Randy Moss | 2. Julian Edelman | 3. Brandon Tate | 4. Torry Holt | 5. Taylor Price | 6. Sam Aiken
Tight End: 1. Rob Gronkowski | 2. Aaron Hernandez | 3. Alge Crumpler
Offensive Tackle: 1. Matt Light | 2. Sebastian Vollmer | 3. Nick Kazcur | 4. Mark LeVoir
Offensive Guard: 1. Logan Mankins | 2. Stephen Neal | 3. Dan Connolly | 4. Rich Ohrnberger
Center: 1. Dan Koppen | 2. Ted Larsen
Defense and special teams after the jump!
Defense
Nose Tackle: 1. Vince Wilfork | 2. Myron Pryor | 3. Ron Brace
Defensive End: 1. Ty Warren | 2. Mike Wright | 3. Gerard Warren | 4. Brandon Deaderick
Outside Linebacker: 1. Tully Banta-Cain | 2. Derrick Burgess | 3. Jermaine Cunningham | 4. Rob Ninkovich
Inside Linebacker: 1. Jerod Mayo | 2. Brandon Spikes | 3. Gary Guyton | 4. Tyrone McKenzie
Cornerback: 1. Leigh Bodden | 2. Darius Butler | 3. Devin McCourty | 4. Jonathan Wilhite | 5. Kyle Arrington
Safety: 1. Brandon Meriweather | 2. Patrick Chung | 3. James Sanders | 4. Brandon McGowan
Specialists
Punter: 1. Zoltan Mesko
Kicker: 1. Stephen Gostkowski
Long Snapper: 1. Jake Ingram
*** Wes Welker begins season on PUP
Practice Squad:
1. George Bussey, OL
2. Zac Robinson, QB
3. Kade Weston, DL
4. Dane Fletcher, LB
5. Darryl Richard, DE
6. Thomas Welch, OT
7. Shawn Crable, OLB
8. Thomas Williams, LB/FB
Notes:
- Toughest Cuts: David Patten, WR; Pierre Woods, OLB; Terrence Wheatley, CB; Bret Lockett, S; Damione Lewis, DL; Marques Murrell, OLB; players listed in practice squad
- One thing you will notice is that there aren't too many changes between April's version and July's version. Most of the changes you will see are via the depth chart, although, there are a few significant changes I'll talk about here.
- As you can see, one significant change I have on the defensive side of the ball is the release of Damione Lewis. I could certainly be wrong with this one, as it could very well be Gerrard Warren that gets cut, but the point is the same. If both Damione Lewis and Gerard Warren are occupying roster spots, it takes away a roster spot for a young player. In this scenario, I have Brandon Deaderick making the squad and Lewis getting the boot. However, if a player like Ron Brace proves he can be a space eater like Gerrard Warren, a guy like Damione Lewis who could be a useful inside rusher could make the squad. I just don't see both of these veterans making the team.
- At running back, in April, I had the team cutting Fred Taylor. While I still think the team could let go of Taylor or Morris (or Green-Ellis for that matter), I think this group might just be too injury prone to let go of any of these guys. Having five will give the team the luxury of enduring an injury or two, avoiding a 2008 situation where a rookie free agent is your starting tailback for a month.
- Another change: special teamer Kyle Arrington making the squad over former second rounder Terrence Wheatley at cornerback. Is this a guarantee to happen? Absolutely not. But could it? Definitely. Terrence Wheatley is out of second chances.
- I only have the Patriots keeping four outside linebackers. Woods is a tough cut as he brings experience and special teams prowess to the group. Crable could make the squad, but he needs to show something at training camp. The Patriots have a young prospect in Jermaine Cunningham, and Rob Ninkovich is young enough (and can also contribute on special teams). With players like Gary Guyton and Tyrone McKenzie in the fold and healthy and who can contribute on special teams, there's no reason to keep guys like Murrell and Crable. Brandon Spikes played some situational defensive end in college, so he could possibly play some outside linebacker as well. One injury can change all of this, of course.
- The offensive line situation is an interesting one. If the Logan Mankins situation can't be worked out, Nick Kazcur becomes your left guard. There would also be nine linemen. So there could either be another roster spot for another young lineman such as Welch or Bussey, or for a young defensive player such as Shawn Crable.
- One final note: a lot of things are going to change between now and the end of training camp. There are going to be surprise veteran cuts, and a young player or two that rise up and take a spot. Not to mention the injuries that will open up even more roster spots. So like I said, a lot will change between now and the end of training camp/preseason. But for now, this is how I see the roster shaping out.
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Who do you see making the 53 if it comes down to one: Gerard Warren or Damione Lewis?
by Greg Knopping on Jul 11, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a tough one...
…I think Lewis and Pryor have a very similar skill set, while Warren shares skills with Ty Warren and Ron Brace.
On a team that Deaderick makes the roster (who, in my opinion plays most similarly to Warren and Brace), I would say the team keeps Lewis, just because keeping Warren would give the Patriots 4 defensive ends (Warren, Warren, Brace, Deaderick) with similar playing styles.
But I’m thinking that Warren makes the roster and Deaderick goes to the Pratice Squad.
by Richard Hill on Jul 11, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and if Crable doesn't make the team...
…I think he’s cut and that’s how Deaderick makes the PS.
by Richard Hill on Jul 11, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Crable can't be on the practice squad...
He’s accrued two “seasons” of NFL play by being on the IR list, so he’s PS ineligible.
Deaderick to PS, Lewis to make the roster?
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 11, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with your assessment of Pryor and Lewis...
Which is why I had Lewis off my team.
G. Warren reminds me a lot of Brace though, and that could make him expendable.
Should be a good competition.
by Greg Knopping on Jul 11, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you think happens when Welker comes off PUP?
I guess it’ll come down to the other receivers’ performance until he comes back (e.g. Price is somehow a superstar, so another is expendable), but what do you think is most likely?
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 11, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
Depending on the play of guys like Price and Tate on special teams, Sam Aiken could be expendable
But the Patriots could also release a guy from another position. Also remember that there are going to be players going on injured reserve and such, so there may very well already be a spot open.
by Greg Knopping on Jul 11, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope with all the Red Sox injuries this year, the Patriots will go through the season without a scratch
Is it too much to hope for that the luck balances out? (Well, yes.)
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 11, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it will come out of the running backs (Morris/Taylor/BJGE)...
…or even Aiken, if another player emerges on special teams.
by Richard Hill on Jul 11, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Your right, I forgot about the running backs
If they’re all healthy midseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them released.
Everyone keeps saying that the Patriots can’t get rid of Green-Ellis because he is young and the team needs youth in its running back corps – and I might disagree. Green-Ellis will be a restricted free agent after the year, and would probably have to be tendered at a second round level to stick around… which is good money.
He’s replaceable. And while I like him a lot (training camp binky and a personal favorite of mine), he’s not so valuable that he’s a lock. If he’s being outperformed by players such as Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris (despite their age), he could very well be released.
by Greg Knopping on Jul 11, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose any of these scenarios is as likely as the other
Welker replaces an injured player, one of the WRs is expendable, or a running back gets cut. We’ll have to wait and see how the season turns out. Are we there yet?
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 11, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
It might, oddly, depend on the TEs...
If Hernandez shows he’s a versatile player who can cover H-back and/or special teams, he might make BJGE expendible.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 11, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Where I could see BJGE sticking around is in a Faulk role, as Kevin retires.
Having said that, I see nothing in Law Firm that makes me believe he could do what Faulk does. Can he blitz pickup? Who knows? He’s not done it. Can he catch out of the backfield? Again, a big question mark.
Still I don’t see a whole lot of teams lining up for his services. If he remained untendered, he would probably be back on a fairly cheap deal. Denver may want him (McD had him for a season), but they are building a decent stable already. Then there’s always KC. I just don’t see many teams jumping for a guy who was a UFA and had a couple so-so seasons.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 12, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
No way he replaces Faulk!
Every time he went to catch a pass last year he couldn’t even remember to keep moving his feet, and subsequently fell on his face every time he went to catch the ball. I would like to see Maroney in a Faulk-like roll. He’s continuing to improve catching the ball and he does great when he has some space around him. I think he would do better in a Reggie Bush type situation, than the down hill runner the Patriots fans want him to be.
by Thomas Talavari on Jul 28, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont think welker is pup list
to start the season my bet is he is starting week 1.
I'm with you
I don’t think they put him on PUP. They just won’t activate him early in the season if he’s not ready.
Keep the faith!
Lots of good choices for BB
I think G. Warren and Damion Lewis are here to stay for the season. Lewis seems to specialize in backfield disruption. And, my guess is that BB intends to come hard from the inside this year to apply better QB pressure and assit the effort of his OLB group.
I am hoping BB steals a page from Jimmy Johnson by rotating D-lineman throughout the game to keep people fresh and to present the O-line with different combinations and different individual techniques.
Rotation: G. Warren, Brace, Pryor, Wilfork, Lewis, Wright, T. Warren
Practice squad: Deaderick
I think Crable and Cunningham back up Banta-Cain and Burgess. Veterans mentoring rookies. Crable has the size BB desires. I don’t see BB releasing him.
Mayo starts, and I think Spikes, Guyton, and McKenzie share a situational rotation.
I’d opt to release Woods and/ Ninkovich to make the 53 man cut. You keep Alexander since he plays ILB. In that way, Alexander gives you 5 ILB’s, and Guyton’s versatility gives you 5 OLB’s. In total, you have 9 LB’s which seems like the right number.
You need 5 backs because they use this RB by committee approach with three guys over 33 years old. I don’t favor this approach at all. I’d prefer an elite HB (able to block, run, receive), an elite FB (able to block, run, receive), and two inexpensive guys like BJGE. And, put a rookie RB on the practice squad each year. It saves you a roster spot, and it creates a more potent, more feared running attack – which will benefit the passing attack.
Eh...
I’d prefer an elite HB (able to block, run, receive), an elite FB (able to block, run, receive), and two inexpensive guys like BJGE
That means you’re exactly one broken ankle away from zero running game.
And, put a rookie RB on the practice squad each year. It saves you a roster spot, and it creates a more potent, more feared running attack – which will benefit the passing attack.
Belichick does that anyway. In previous years, he’s picked up UFA running backs Kory Chapman (2004), Kyle Eckel (2005), Patrick Cobbs (2006), 6th rounder draftee Justice Hairson (2007), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2008), ex-UFA Chris Taylor (2009), and Pat Pachall (2010). Usually they end up on the practice squad.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 12, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
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