Patriots News Flash: The Team is Still Kind of Old
The analysts over at ESPN have averaged the age of of every NFL team's roster, not including punters, kickers or long snappers, in order to see how each team rates in age. The New England Patriots are the 6th oldest team in the league, averaging 26.64 years of age, only .69 away from the oldest team, the Washington Redskins.
Keep in mind that an old team isn't necessarily a bad team. It should signify an experienced team, but that is clearly a flawed theory, due to the Redskins being the oldest team on average. The past three or four years, all the talk about the Patriots has been about how the team is getting older and is on a down trend. Players like Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour were getting past their prime and more youth needed to be infused in the team.
Notice how those three players I mentioned were all defensive players.
The past few years, amidst all the talk of age, the Patriots defense has been restocking its youth. Brandon Meriweather was brought on as a long term replacement for Harrison. Jerod Mayo for Bruschi. Young players like Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, Tyrone McKenzie, Jermaine Cunningham, Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Terrence Wheatley, Jonathan Wilhite, Pat Chung, Ron Brace and Myron Pryor have all been brought on you reduce the age of the defense and set the team up for the future.
The issue is on the offense. The Patriots could possibly start an offensive 11 with nine players over the age of 30 (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Alge Crumpler, Kevin Faulk, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal are all over the age of 30 and could make the starting roster). The team has a great need for youth and the team has started addressing this need at the skill positions; young players like Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski all have under 2 years of NFL experience.
The biggest needs for the offense is on the offensive line. The Patriots have a young star in Sebastian Vollmer, but no other young player has emerged over the past few years as a reliable every game starter. The veteran linemen who are over 30 years old are still playing extremely well, which has allowed the Patriots to use their early round draft picks on the defense, but now the team is left without a future on the offensive line.
While the team ranks high in average age, I believe that the age of the Patriots players brings valuable experience- unlike the age of some other teams. I don't think that the Patriots age should provide much of a problem this upcoming season, but questions remain as to what players will become starters down the road.
Will the Patriots age provide an advantage for this team? Or will player durability be the theme of the next couple of years as certain players' bodies begin to break down?
36 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think this assessment is correct
While the team ranks high in average age, I believe that the age of the Patriots players brings valuable experience- unlike the age of some other teams. I don’t think that the Patriots age should provide much of a problem this upcoming season, but questions remain as to what players will become starters down the road.
Good question to ask, but I don’t see age as a problem here.
Keep the faith!
Obviously, as we know, the defense has gotten a lot younger the last two years
The offense is where the age lies with this team.
The running back situation is a problem. Maroney is just 25, as is Green-Ellis, but neither appear to be the future solution at running back. This entire group is going to need to be restocked with youth.
The team is working on wide receiver. Price, Tate, Edelman all represent the future. If they can pan out, the Patriots won’t need to do much more to address the position, although I’d like the team to add a Moss-like presence through the draft… my favorite is Georgia’s AJ Green.
Quarterback isn’t really a problem. We know what we have with Brady. Assuming he signs his extension, we won’t need to worry about the future of that position for another four, maybe five years. Besides, I really like Hoyer as a developmental prospect.
Pretty much, the only way I see the Patriots’ age affecting the offense this year is on the offensive line, where everyone except Vollmer and Mankins (if he even counts) are on the wrong side of 30. The Patriots are going to have to address the offensive line with a high draft pick or two next April.
I'm a big fan of Pitt's Jonathan Baldwin.
He’s got a couple inches and 30 pounds on Green and put up better numbers last year. But to be honest, there’s 4 or 5 WRs I’d be more than happy to get next year.
by Richard Hill on Jul 12, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Pretty much, the only way I see the Patriots’ age affecting the offense this year is on the offensive line, where everyone except Vollmer and Mankins (if he even counts) are on the wrong side of 30. The Patriots are going to have to address the offensive line with a high draft pick or two next April.
I’m less worried that I could be, because O-line is one of the few areas where the Pats can and will regularly start rookies straight out of training camp (ie – Mankins, Kaczur, Vollmer). In other words, highly-drafted O-linemen don’t have to sit on the bench of a season or two; they can contribute straight after their draft. That’s not a bad thing.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 12, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I like AJ Green. Great hands, great leaping ability. seems to be have a good release off the line.
I also like Hoyer a lot. I feel that he has displayed good-great pocket presence, and he seems to be more of an accurate thrower than a power thrower. He just needs to read the defense A BIT better, and I think he’ll be a solid backup. If brady happens to go down, I can count on Hoyer.
I love our young WRs, and I can’t wait to see Tate and Price.
Maroney has to step it up. I’m not too confident in BJGE unfortunately. Last year, I saw that he was doing the dancing thing like Maroney was frequently in his first two years in the few plays BJGE ran.
OL is needed, particularly guard if you ask me for next year.
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Down with Big Brother!
Use a player rotation
I think age [veteran experience and mentoring] is a plus: an advantage. However, to maximize the gains, the PATS need to begin rotating players along the O-line throughout the game. They beat guys down until injury: year after year. A rotation might extend the season for all of them. It’ll certainly create more useful depth when injuries happen, and it assures that you have fresh lineman throughout the game: ALL good things.
Rotations:
Tackle: Light, Kazur, Vollmer, LeVoir could easily create a solid four player rotation
Guard: Connolly, Neal, Ohrnberger, Kazur [again] create a solid four player rotation
I would love to see Mankins return, and remove Kazur from two rotations. I feel that the PATS dropped the ball with Mankins: somehow. This should not have reached this point. He is definitely excellent. He has been a solid team/locker room guy. He’s a Pro Bowler. I just think his value to Brady was worth getting a happy agreement long before the $#@ hit the fan
by couchpotato on Jul 12, 2010 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
there will be no rotation on the oline
unless they arent healthy. continuity is a huge advantage on the oline. and screw mankins he isnt a left tackle . he is a mediocre pass blocker anyway kascur can be a mediocre pass blocker as well.
I'll get the AARP cards sent out right away.
Seriously, though, some age on the O-line is a good thing. Brady calls out the Mike, but Koppen calls out the coverage. Not exactly a job for a newbie. There are far more miscues when Koppen isn’t in there.
Having a group of guys play together for awhile helps a lot when you are essentially trying to be bricks in the same wall. The worst lines tend to be either a bunch of young guys (with no experience), or a bunch of guys who haven’t worked together very long.
The way we usually see reps for the younger guys is when the older guys get injured. Since they’re older, there is more chance of that happening. It tends to work itself out – like with our young stud Vollmer.
As far as Moss, or Holt, I see guys who can diagnose a defense and find weaknesses. Hardly a bad thing. Past that, we have a lot of new blood and Welker. No problems there.
Brady shouldn’t leave. Ever. Just kidding. If he shows signs of decline, then yeah, show him the door. Some people might say last year was a decline year – his second best statistically. It might have been. He didn’t make decisions as well as he did in the past. Is that decline? Hard to say with his recovery from knee injury, the injuries he sustained during the season, and the lack of a 3rd and 4th wideout. Let’s watch him this year and see. Targets galore, injuries mended (and boo boos kissed by Giselle); let’s see if it was him or the situation. I’m betting on the sitch.
Our RB crew is all scheduled to leave next year. Faulk will stay as long as he is asked (his number have actually improved the last two years). Morris will likely be available as well – either to start the season, or on a Seau-like speed dial. Maroney hasn’t performed well enough to have a ton of suitors, and neither has BJGE. Taylor may go elsewhere or retire. I haven’t seen enough out of him to care either way. Point is, we can toss as many or as few new horses in the stable as we want next year. Anywhere from a two man to a five man rotation, what ever makes sense. If they are young, they can also be on special teams. There will always be one year rentals around looking to go out on top. RB’s are the easiest guys to pick up as long as you aren’t looking for studs. In my opinion, there are only around 5 studs in the whole NFL.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 12, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
Is this really that big of a deal?
The average Patriots player is a whopping 219 DAYS older than the average NFL player. And the average Patriots player is 1 year and 2134 days older than the average player on the YOUNGEST (and, unsurprisingly, worst) NFL team. If we were pushing an average age of 28 or 29, there would be cause for concern. But 26.64? For most players, that’s a mere 4 or 5 years in the system. Isn’t that the perfect range to be in? Doesn’t that mean that our average player is either currently in or entering his prime? The Patriots should be happy that their average player isn’t a second-year, 24-year-old.
There certainly are concerns at individual positions, as you note (OL, maybe DL, and RB), but considering the vast majority of the rest of the team is relatively young, and this conflated stat is being dragged down (or is it up?) by a few fogies, I’m not really concerned by this.
Or maybe I’m sensitive to being called old at age 26.
I noticed, but wasn't going to say a word.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 12, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I didn't mean to rant.
I’m just annoyed by ESPN’s obsession with abstract stats that import no meaningful insight into anything that anyone might care about….ever. A positional breakdown, especially at positions where aged players are markedly less effective (RB), would have been far more interesting…
No aplogies, you are preaching to the choir.
In Media-speak, there are four stages of player development.
1. Young (means inexperienced)
2. Maturing (means he’s young, but gets the game)
3. Experienced (means he’s older, plays well, and is still holding up)
4. Aging (means he’s old, and may have lost a step)
We’ve got mostly 1-3, and only a few guys (mostly O-line) in category #4.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 12, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
These stats DO have a purpose.
The Redskins age has shot up this off-season due to the increase in age of their running backs (they picked up a couple older backs), as well as Donovan McNabb. How are teams trying to alter their rosters? Are teams trying to pick up old free agents (what the Patriots used to do) or are they growing purely through the draft (Shown with teams like the Buccaneers and Chiefs as some of the youngest).
While age may not have a direct standing on how a team will perform, it does show a team’s philosophy and it’s useful when seeing how a team is ready in the future.
With players averaging only 3 years in the league, players at nearly 27 years of age are definitely in the upper echelon. And when a team like the Patriots have 12 draftees from 2009 and another 12 from 2010 and they’re still in the top of the league in age? That shows that the team is definitely in a transitioning phase.
by Richard Hill on Jul 12, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to question the purpose of averaging the age of the whole team
I’d much prefer addressing the offense and defense separately, like you did. It gives a much more accurate picture of the situation. There are just too many guys on the team for the entire team’s average age to mean much.
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 12, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
A much more interesting question is “Where is a team going to have serious needs in the near or immediate future, based on age?” Averaging the age of 53 guys and trying to discern something meaningful from that is poppycock, especially given that the standard deviation is almost negligible. If we were talking an average of 23 at the low end and 30 at the high end, then we might have an interesting statistic. But 25 and 27? I am unswayed as to the probative value of this information. But it is mid-July – we have no more World Cup; MLB’s All-Star game is hardly riveting; NHL and NBA just had their drafts, and meaningful NFL action doesn’t resume for another month.
I blame the constant and pervasive news media for these pointless exercises in number crunching.
The Patriots are definitely transitioning.
I just didn’t need to see rankings of all 32 teams based on average age to know that. The average age stat doesn’t really tell us anything, unless viewed in total isolation and compared only to the players on that team (as with the Pats, who have an interesting age "gap). Using the stat in that way, we might discern something interesting about a team’s philosophy and general direction. But even then, how useful can it be?
For example, the Colts are very good and very young. What does this mean? Well, it could mean they’re going to be good for a long time to come. It could also mean that in 4-5 years, they are going to have a mass exodus of young talent due to an inability to pay the apparently large number of good young players they have. I don’t feel like I’ve learned anything about the Colts or their philosophy based on the fact that their players are, on average, 1.5 years younger than Patriots players. I definitely don’t feel like I’ve learned anything based on the fact that the Colts are the third youngest NFL team. I do know that if Peyton Manning severs his wrist tomorrow in a freak Oreo twisting accident, it doesn’t matter if the Colts average age is 25 or 55; they are going to suck.
Agreed
The problem with the sports media’s use of numbers like this is that the analysis stops there. It just scratches the surface. No single statistic can accurately give a sense of the state of a team. Numbers like average age are good for making a chart that’ll catch someone’s eye watching ESPN, but they can be dangerously misleading.
While we’re on this subject: is it just me, or have sportscasters been saying “I don’t think the fans realize _” more and more often? I hear it a lot from former players who come in to offer analysis. E.g. “Patriots fans don’t realize Brian Hoyer did very well when he played last season” (I heard that one today). We do realize. Thanks for your insight, but keep your condescending attitude to yourself. I think the fans of every professional team, on a general level, are pretty aware of things like that.
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 12, 2010 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone needs to make the media feel intelligent.
And since we (the consumers of media) aren’t showering their vaunted wisdom with praise and adoration at all moments of the day, they figure they need to let us know that they know things we don’t and are therefore in some way significant or necessary to the ongoing dialogue.
Then again, if someone on Sportscenter says “Jets fans don’t realize that their team could collapse into a horrible mess of dysfunction and paternity tests,” I would be inclined to agree.
Well you've said it yourself.
What happens on a young team if the experienced members go out with injuries? The team will most likely collapse, bar an inspirational story of overcoming adversity. The team is most likely full of inexperienced players- and yes, 2 years of experience (rounding up) is a big difference in the NFL- and they need their veterans.
What happens if an experienced member on an older team goes out? There will be other players to pick up the slack.
Look at the teams who are at the bottom. One injury to those teams will end the season, if the team isn’t already rebuilding. Now look at the top.
There are 12 playoff teams in the top 16 age teams. There are 4 playoff teams in the bottom 16. That means something, right?
Sure, you don’t need to average numbers to say, “Well, duh, experience comes with age and more experienced teams have a better shot at the playoffs.” But numbers can back up that statement.
Stats don’t need to have some earth shattering meaning to have a purpose. Averaging the ages is just something to go, “Oh, this team relies on veterans,” or “Oh, this team is starting from scratch.” No, the numbers most likely won’t change the game- but neither do the numbers over at Pro Football Focus (“I think this guy did a ‘1’ on pass rush today!”) and they’re fairly well respected. It’s just another way to look at teams.
Also, if you have a team full of 2nd year players versus a team full of 4th year players, who do you think is at an advantage? That’s the age difference between the top and bottom of the list. Yeah, 2 years don’t sound like a lot, but it’s the average career length in the NFL.
by Richard Hill on Jul 12, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
And if you ever want to know the trivia...
“What’s the oldest team in the league?” Dallas Cowboys.
“What’s the youngest team in the league?” Carolina Panthers.
No, there’s no need to know that. It’s just something TO know.
by Richard Hill on Jul 12, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I also agree with you
My point, and I think nbradley’s, is that you can have a team filled with 22- and 32-year-olds, and another filled with 26- and 28-year-olds, and the average ages will each be 27. That age can mean wildly different things depending on context, which is why your further analysis was helpful. Averaging the ages alone can’t really provide a picture into how a team handles itself—imagine, for example, that the first hypothetical team I mentioned had all 26-year-olds. Well, they rely a lot more on veterans than the other team with the 32-year-olds, because that team also has a bunch of rookies. The age itself can be misleading.
Not that I mean to criticize the article. I don’t think you’ve ever written anything not worth reading. Just my two cents.
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Jul 12, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally.
I wasn’t trying to criticize the analysis you added, Richard. Your observations are always poignant and intriguing. My criticism was more so aimed at ESPN, for throwing out these stats, “ranking” them (as they do with everything), and leaving it at that, as though this stats means anything out of context.
I didn’t mean to come off as a curmudgeon (though right now I am, because I’m studying for the Bar).
True that, yo.
The stats were more compiled for the NFC West so I had to do the analysis for our team, but I see what you mean now. I didn’t mean to sound defensive. I just think stats, no matter how absurdly calculated, add something to a team.
As a matter of fact, these age numbers could seem a little more ridiculous. You know the Cleveland Browns’ tackle, Joe Thomas? He’s 25 years old and he’s the best tackle in the league. He was drafted in 2007 and has 3 years of starters experience in the league. Now look at Sebastian Vollmer. Vollmer was drafted last year. He’s actually half a year older than Thomas. Age and experience might not actually go exactly hand in hand on this one.
by Richard Hill on Jul 13, 2010 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree. I think stats are overrated in a way.
I don’t believe in them.
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Down with Big Brother!
Thank you, sir.
(May I have another – LOL)
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 13, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No, but wait till Otis sees you, he loves you!
by JonnyNYC on Jul 13, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
...and you get a Rec right back.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 13, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Age matters in other sports, but not in the NFL - all that matters is production.
The Pats are older, so what. Are they productive? If not – you cut the guys who aren’t if they are 24 or 34, you play well you stay, you don’t you go.
All other major sports have guaranteed contracts where age becomes a bigger issue because you are stuck with players who may not be performing as you want them too. Not so in the NFL.
That Pats are transitioning, as mentioned above and the defense took priority the last 2-3 years – mostly due to the fact that the offense was so proficient it could didn’t need as much help. Though that the same time they are kicking the tires in the low rounds on OL, they’ve drafted WRs in each of the last 3 drafts and this year they went after TEs.
Next year Morris, Taylor and Faulk are all likely gone, so the RB position will be getting younger, potentially Light and or Koppen could be gone as well.
It’s an ever changing thing, this Age deal. As long as you are productive though, BB will give you a spot.
I wouldn't go so far as to say that age doesn't matter.
I’m pretty sure the Patriots would take a slightly less productive 23 year old with a high ceiling over a heading-around-the-bend 32 year old (ie: Shawn Springs vs Jonathan Wilhite/Terrence Wheatley).
by Richard Hill on Jul 13, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all - I'm saying age is not nearly as relevant as skill/performance
A fair point you make regarding DBs, I will counter with LBs
Historically BB values older veteran LBs verse younger, arguably more talented players based on their knowledge and ability to read offenses. Certainly this has changed in recent years slightly, but it’s a pretty sound example of BB’s lack of concern for age vs production
Unless you're Thomas Jones at the Jets...
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 13, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a great discussion
Richard’s piece set things up very nicely and the thread has been a really useful one. I agree with most of what’s been said and don’t really have anything more to add—so I won’t try! I’ll just say I’ve enjoyed reading the responses.
This is what makes Bill Belichick the best: He's playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.

by 





























