Projected New England Patriots' Receiver Route Trees
by Richard Hill on Jul 15, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
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Some people were wondering how certain receivers might fit into the offense. Some think that players like Brandon Tate will go across the middle a la Anquan Boldin, while others think that Tate will be a speed guy doing crosses like Percy Harvin. Well, here's my opinion and take on what the Patriots' receivers are going to be doing this upcoming season.
I used my professional "Microsoft Paint" to draw this picture, so laugh it up. I think it gets the point across, and it reminds me of what I would do for a 3rd Grade School Project. Whatever, it works!
Here's the key: I believe that some players will be asked to do similar routes. I think that every young player has a veteran player they're essentially paired with, so that the knowledge and experience gets passed down. Now I know that not every young player matches up identically with a veteran, so that's why I've adjusted some of the trees accordingly.
Read my breakdown after the jump!
Pink Route: 81 and 19. Randy Moss and Brandon Tate. I believe that Moss and Tate will be asked to run pretty much the exact same routes as a receiver. Now Moss is taller and will be able to out-jump cornerbacks- something that I don't think Tate has the size to be able to do- but I still think they'll run similar patterns. However, even though they'll have the same basic routes, I think that the players will be asked to run each route in different frequencies. While I believe that both players will get the opportunity to run straight down the field, Moss will be the player doing the sideline out routes (the lines towards the sidelines) and Tate will be doing the across the field slant routes. While I picture Tate as a little more finesse than a player like Boldin, I believe the slant routes use Tate's speed to his advantage, while still allowing him to get dirty.
Orange and Light Purple Route: 83 and 11. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. We all know that Edelman has been called Welker Jr. and whatnot and we all know that both players have been asked to run basically the same routes. The only real difference between Welker and Edelman is size- and Edelman has 1 inch and 15 pounds on Welker. While that may seem small, I think the weight allows Edelman to put his body more on the line downfield and in the way of safeties, as opposed to Welker who flourishes on quick passes and YAC with his excellent vision. Therefore, the Orange extension is what I believe Edelman adds to the offense- another possible body down field.
Dark Purple Route: 82 and 87. Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski. Crumpler was brought in as a veteran presence for the tight end position and Gronkowski is a perfect understudy. Both are large targets (with Gronk have 4 inches on Crumpler) who know how to block. I think that both will have the same route tree, but I believe that Gronk will be favored in the end zone due to his size. Their job is to create mismatches in the middle of the field- and that's why I think they'll be asked to run in every direction.
Blue Route: 85. Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is all alone, but that shouldn't impede his growth as a playmaker on offense. He should run a similar route tree to the other tight ends, but I believe that his downfield speed will make him a better option on the move, so he can use is downhill momentum. I don't think that Hernandez will be asked to come back for the ball because that eliminates his biggest asset- his speed.
Green and Cyan Route: 84 and 17. Torry Holt and Taylor Price. I think that both Holt and Price are less finesse and more strength than Moss and Tate. While Moss and Tate have the potential to be YAC monsters, I see Holt and Price being more utilized to move the chains. Holt will use his experience to catch the ball, but I think that Price will have a slightly bigger route tree than Holt. Price, with his young body, will be asked to run across the field more often to make the big plays and get the first down. I'm not saying that Price won't be able to run downfield (but I don't think Holt will be able to), because I think that Price will get his fair share of extra yardage. I just think that Price will be more of a possession receiver first, breakaway receiver second. Yes, I know that Price has 4.4 speed. He'll use it. I just think of him as a more physical receiver than Tate and Moss. I think Price will be able to fight his way free for extra yardage, while I think that Tate and Moss need more open space to get that yardage.
So what do you think?
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While we're on the subject of WRs...
…I’d also like to say that I believe that Price will be a better overall receiver than Tate and could eventually become the team’s #2 receiver. Tate will provide great depth at #3 (or #4 with Edelman), but I believe his real strength will come from his special teams play.
That’s why I think Tate will have more of a role going straight down the field and Price will be more all over the field- to play to each player’s strength.
If you’re looking for a player who would most be like Anquan Boldin, I don’t think it will be Tate- but Price definitely could fit the role.
I agree.
Tate I think will be our #2 this year. I think Price will be our #1 or #2(depending how tate does) next year if moss retires. Welker will work his magic in the slot.
Either that, or Tate will be our #3, and welker as our #2. Price will be in the starting lineup next year.
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Down with Big Brother!
Concur.
Based on our view from the outside, of course (you never know what exactly the coaching staff might see that we don’t).
But everything I’ve seen indicates that Price is a special reciever. His combination of speed plus tremendous upper body strength is a great combo in a reciever, especially for the right side flanker position, which, as you indicate is often asked to cut across the middle. He also gets the advantage over corners on sideline timing balls because he’s right handed – i expect they’ll try a few lobs to the sideline/corner to him – its a great bookend to Moss’ great ability at that on the left side.
If you can establish two corner lob threats, then the middle of the end zone will be a playground for Welker, Edelman, Gronk & Hernandez.
That's a thought...
If you have a pair of deep-corner-lob threats, then the Safeties have to be aware and perhaps cheat a little deeper/wider into the end zone to prevent that back-corner play. That not only opens up the middle of the end zone (think slants under the posts), but also means the Safeties are too deep to correctly control the edge. So if the Safeties play deep/middle (cutting off the slants), the flats are all go. If the Safeties spread wide/deep to cover the back corner and flats, then the middle of the field is open. I like having the ability to make it about width and depth in the End Zone.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 17, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i said all last year our #1 problem on offense was lack of _threat_
on the right side, opposite Moss. Sam Aiken is a fine football player. An exemplary ST captain. But he deserves and gets no respect as a wideout by safeties.
We need Holt and/or Price to provide that threat. That will make a huge world of difference all over the field.
[The #2 problem with our offense was, of course, a lack of commitment to the running game.]
Nice coloring!
You kept the crayon within the lines.
Just kidding. Nice work.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 15, 2010 2:26 PM EDT reply actions
vert threats
First off, thanks for taking a swing at these projections. They’re had work.
I think, however, that there may be some misconceptions about Tate and Edelman. Firstly, Tate is not a speed demon. While we don’t have any combine or pro day stats for him (he was injured at the time), he was known for his ability to separate (acceleration and change of direction), not his ability to outrun people. He’s not an especially vertical threat. Now, speed is not the only criterion of being a deep threat, certainly. Chad 85 (nee Johnson), who was a few years ago considered one of the top 3 or top 2 greatest vertical threats in the game, ran a 4.54 forty at the combine (though apparently ran faster on other occasions). But still, Tate is supposedly someone who gets open, not necessarily behind people.
Edelman can not only separate, but could conceivably outrun the corner. His short shuttle is a 3.92 – perhaps the fastest in the NFL (I recall reading that WWelker does a tad over 4.0). But on his pro day he also ran a 4.50 forty – as fast or faster than many corners. And don’t forget, speed is something that one can practice at. As a college QB, he wasn’t out there running many intervals. His 40 time is impressive in an absolute sense and highly impressive in a relative sense. While I doubt the Pats will use him as such, he may compare to Steve Smith in many ways…
I mean...
…Edelman can outrun a corner within 5 yards, but I wouldn’t say that he’d be able to do that down the field.
Here are Tate’s numbers:
Campus: 4.52 in the 40-yard dash … 1.6 10-yard dash … 2.65 20-yard dash … 4.12 20-yard shuttle … 7.25 three-cone drill … 36-inch vertical jump … 9’4" broad jump.
So it’s not like he’s slow. I think his nose for the return game and getting into the open downfield should help him in the passing game.
Good thoughts!
by Richard Hill on Jul 15, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's a quote:
Tate is probably most well known for his explosive speed, (a 4.3 40 yard dash), and his ability to make plays happen off of a kick or punt return.
From Bleacher Report
…and 4.52 when he was injured.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 15, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
To quote Han Solo:
I think she’s fast enough for you old man.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 15, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha
Whenever I see a sportsman called “the Falcon”, I can’t help but picture a guy getting a ball clean on the nose whilst unawares. I’m not sure I want to tempt fate that badly in a WR.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 17, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff...
Really interesting breakdown. When you have the most respected deep threat in the game it will continue to open up the underneath routes. Not to say the others won’t run deep routes, but Moss will be respected by almost every team on every down with a deep safety.
When you look at Welker, Edelman, Tate, Hernandez and Price the one thing that sticks out is that they are all very good with the ball in their hands. Shifty, tough to bring down, lots of YAC (yes in college for Tate, Hernandez and Price but still, that is their skill set). Against teams like the Jets that blitz a lot these players should be extremely valuable. We saw what happened in week 2 last year without Welker and a still raw Edelman. Now, with so many more short/intermediate threats who will know what hot routes to run, Brady should be able to get rid of the ball quickly.
Last but not least I think Gronk will be a red zone beast, something we need really really badly.
In the red zone, Hernandez can run the little Welker route where he catches it just short and then pops through.
But with 60 more pounds, it ought to be even more effective.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 15, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Hernandez
Agreed, I think he’s going to be deadly in this offense.
by MikeDussault on Jul 15, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
They don't need Owens
on paper, but Welker remains an unknown, Tate and Price have yet to prove they can learn the intricasies of the offense well enough to play significant minutes this year, and Moss and Holt are both healthy.
Edelman and Holt can cover the absence of Welker. That still leaves Tate and Price in question. Aiken is a reliable back-up, but it would not be ideal if he was needed on a regular basis.
They certainly don’t need any more rookie WR’s to teach, and Patten is old and a full season removed from playing football. I cannot see Patten as a realistic choice.
Therefore, if Brady and Moss were open to an Owen visit, I think he is worth bringing in for an evaluation: kick the tires, check the speed, assess the hands, and get a read on his mindset. BB would most certainly create a PAT’S friendly contract with a short leash and an easy release option.
I remember the same type of debate regarding Moss when he arrived. Fans resided on both sides of that passionate discussion. Yet, Moss has certainly quieted most of his critics. He’s been terrific. Maybe Owens will also be terrific.
To bring Owens in, you'd need to cut someone else...
at the moment, the Pats already have too many players – they have something like 83 or 84. They need to get that down to 80 by cutting players as they sign the rookies; to sign Owens, they’d need to cut people. Who’s getting cut? Promising rookies? Veterans?
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 16, 2010 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Moss != Owens
These guys have the same number and both have had big NFL recieving careers.
But their personalities both in terms of playing style and reported work ethic and team interactions are totally different.
Despite how some in the media don’t like him, every teammate and coach who has worked with Moss has had nothing but glowing praise of him as a player and a teammate. I don’t think the same can be said of Owens.
We DO have a long history of Owen’s publically burning down his teammates and coaches.
Has T.O. ever been voted captain of his team by his fellow players?
All legitimate points
and supporting arguments to pass on Owens.
I’d be perfectly fine leaving the initial decision up to Brady [Capt] , Moss [Capt], and BB as to whether the PATS should bring Owens in for a look. Why not? If those three feel this is a good idea, let’s do it.
There are two compelling reasons why Owens would be very beneficial.
Reason 1: The usual injury concerns for WR’s like Moss, Holt, and Welker. That’s your core group. The three you must count on at least through the first half of the season. We saw how the offense fell a notch in Welker’s absence. I cannot even imagine the fall if Moss were to be injured. Holt, I think, is going to be a terrific WR this season. Hence, there are your three key WR’s.
Edelman is a superb 4th WR, but he is certainly not yet ready to replace Moss, Holt, or Welker. He probably represents about 80% of their of their presence.
Tate and Price have a huge upside. BUT, neither has started a game in the NFL. Tate probably has a decent handle on the system, but I don’t think he is ready to assume a starting role. Price is a rookie. I think it is realistic to expect that he will need 8 or more games to become anything more than a set route runner.
Therefore, if Moss, or Holt, or Welker go down, I would much rather have Owens to replace them. He’s a future Hall of Fame receiver as are Moss and Holt – maybe Welker. The PATS would not miss a beat with Owens stepping in. And, I really like the idea of Moss, Holt, and Owens creating a 3 person rotation for the #1 and #2 WR spots. That could very well prevent any injuries to the three of them while creating some awesome scenarios with Moss and Owens on opposite sides. And, Owens does run routes over the middle. And, if one of them is injured, he can recover longer knowing that the other two are there.
Bottom line is that Edelman, Tate, and Price are still developing their NFL receiving skills. The slower that maturation process can happen, the better they will become. They’ll get plenty of reps since the PATS run a pass first system.
Reason 2: The PATS have a sub par running attack. BB clearly favors a pass first system. Which I would like to see changed. However, this season is set with the aging RB committee. Therefore, why not add a Hall of Fame receiver like Owens [again, assuming Brady, Moss, and BB agree to take a look].
Owens has all the injury concerns of Moss, Holt - he's as old as they are.
Bottom line is that Edelman, Tate, and Price are still developing their NFL receiving skills. The slower that maturation process can happen, the better they will become. They’ll get plenty of reps since the PATS run a pass first system.
If you take 2007 as the absolute pinnacle of the Pats pass-first system:
- receiver – WR 1, 100 recs, 1500 yards, 23 TDs
- receiver – WR 2, 112 recs, 1100 yards, 8 TDs
- receiver – WR 3, 46 recs, 700 yards, 3 TDs
- receiver – WR 4, 36 recs, 450 yards, 5 TDs
- receiver – TE 1, 36 recs, 400 yards, 6 TDs
- receiver – 3DB, 47 recs, 400 yards, 1 TD
- receiver – RB 1, 4 recs, 116 yards…
In other words, in the best passing offence Brady has put out, only the top-4 WRs got any meaningful reception totals. If you add TO, then all your receptions are going to go to Moss, Welker, Holt, TO. That means that you’re basically not throwing anything to Edelman, Tate, Price, or Hernandez. That’s a waste of talent and completely negates their progress. Game-time snaps are worth gold; TO means there won’t be any.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 17, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand
your table. Great numbers, BTW.
T.O. won’t change this pass allocation table since I am proposing that Moss, Holt, and T.O. create a 3 player rotation for the #1 and #2 WR spots. They share the 212 receptions and 31 TD’s.
It reduces their snaps by ~ 1/3 over the season. Since we agree that all three have injury concerns, I feel that it would be advantageous to have all three players thus reducing their snaps and increasing the percentage of always having at least two of them healthy.
As part of a 3 player rotation, T.O. would have no impact on the #3 through #7 receiving spots or their potential catch total. Yet, his presence would reduce the pressure for Tate and Price to shine right out of the gate. I think that’s a good thing. WR mistakes sometimes result in INT’s or QB sacks. I think Manning was the victim in the Super Bowl of a WR mistake that lead to that INT and resulting TD. Big mistakes like those can have a detrimental impact on a rookie WR. Guys like Moss, Holt, and Owens make far fewer mistakes, and they don’t beat themself up when they do make one.
Are you against acquiring T.O. because it is T.O. ?
If yes,
if this was another elite receiver [your pick], would you be open to his acquisition?
Welker, Tate, Price, and Edelman are the future. I’m am not suggesting that one of them is released. The three TE’s are superb acquisitions. No chance I would release one of them either. In fact, I hope Crumpler has two seasons left in his game. I think he is going to be fantastic this season.
If BB wants T.O., he’ll release someone. There’s no reason to debate who. It’ll just happen. If BB has no interest in T.O., he won’t be a Patriot: i.e. Unga. :-]
That's putting the cart before the horse, a little.
Are you against acquiring T.O. because it is T.O. ?
Partly, sure. If/when he does only get used sparingly as a guy to spell Moss, he’s going to be furious. Can you imagine how much that’ll piss him off? He won’t be starved of ball as the #1 WR in a bad team (like 2009 in Buffalo), he’ll be starved of ball because he’s being treated like a second-class WR. TO’s blown his top over being treated like a first-class WR in Philly (remember the “throw it to me!” on every single snap?). It’ll be ugly.
if this was another elite receiver [your pick], would you be open to his acquisition?At the moment, no. At least not of any of the guys who teams would give up/ are likely to hit free agency, unless there’s a spate of injuries in the WR corps and it’s absolutely necessary.
As part of a 3 player rotation, T.O. would have no impact on the #3 through #7 receiving spots or their potential catch totalHe’d eat a precious roster spot. Who (of all the gifted rookies and guys who have been working all offseason) are you going to leave out for TO?
Yet, his presence would reduce the pressure for Tate and Price to shine right out of the gate
If you look at my table again, you see that almost all of the throws go to the WRs 1-4. So in the current roster, that’s Moss, Welker, Edelman, Holt. So there’s no pressure on Tate or Price as it already stands. If you inject TO, then you’re shifting Tate and Price even further down the chart, and they won’t be spelling Moss or Holt occasionally, they’ll be fetching waterbottles. There’s a fine line between letting them develop and completely stunting their development through inactivity, and I’d think having TO around promotes the latter. If he was a guy who’d teach them everything, I’d think about it, but it’s TO.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 18, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I will defer to your insights on T.O.
since he has never been on my radar.
The upside for this season is very exciting. I do feel that they addressed many issues from last year. I sense the OLB concerns will be alleviated by a much stronger, more focused inside rush.
As stated before, if O’Brien elevates his play calling beyond the predictability of a Pop Warner football game, there’s every reason to believe that the PATS have all the tools to return to the Super Bowl this season.
I truly hope the rumors are true that BB will be much more involved in the defense this year. I cannot think of a more significant off season improvement than BB stepping up on the defensive side.
Haha, you missed TO's antics? That's quite an achievement
In 2003 he destroyed the 49ers, up to and including calling his own QB, Jeff Garcia, a homosexual in an interview with Playboy.
In 2005 he ripped Donovan McNabb for being an inferior QB and not throwing to him enough a year after a Superbowl run. The sniping continued into the season, and eventually broke up the locker-room enough that a team who had previously been to the Superbowl flunked badly. It got so bad the team suspended him for 4 games without pay and then made him inactive for the rest of the season.
In 2006 TO was sent to Dallas, and promptly demanded that Drew Bledsoe be replaced as QB by undrafted free agent Tony Romo because Bledsoe didn’t throw to him enough. He went to bat for Romo enough that the team cut Bledsoe.
That wasn’t the end of it, though. From 2006-2008, TO went from actively campaigning for Romo, to defending him in public (in tears at a press conference after a playoff loss, no less), to calling Romo out for only throwing to Jason Witten instead of TO. TO tried to turn the locker room against Romo, but the Romo-Witten pairing stood strong and TO was shown the door.
That’s four QBs TO has tried to throw under the bus – four QBs with 17 Pro Bowls between them. Seventeen Pro Bowls. Think Brady will be immune from TO’s crap?
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 18, 2010 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's pass on T.O. based on that resume..
I had heard fragments of those scenarios, but I never bothered to hear the stories out. He awful. You should re-post that exact listing in various threads regarding T.O.
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