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2010 Patriots NFL Predictions: Rookie of the Year

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Today, we continue our Patriots prediction series, and take a look at potential rookie of the year candidates.  As with our MVP voting, each Pats Pulpit writer was given a first, second, and third place vote for Patriots rookie of the year.  Lets see how it unfolded:

Name

1st Place

2nd Place

3rd Place

Marima

Brandon Spikes

Rob Gronkowski

Jermaine Cunningham

Richard Hill

Rob Gronkowski

Devin McCourty

Taylor Price

Mike Dussault

Aaron Hernandez

Brandon Spikes

Devin McCourty

Comedic.Sans

Devin McCourty

Aaron Hernandez

Brandon Spikes

Stephen Verman

Brandon Spikes

Aaron Hernandez

Devin McCourty

Greg Knopping

Devin McCourty

Brandon Spikes

Aaron Hernandez

Explanations and the final tally after the jump!

Star-divide

Marima:

Brandon Spikes has the fire and desire to compete fans love to see.  With a team focusing on finishing strong, Spikes will embody that philosophy every chance he gets.    

Mike Dussault:

Hernandez becomes the safety valve opposite Welker and will have a lot of field to work with. Spikes provides the run-thumping presence that has been missed since Ted Johnson. McCourty immediately starts at nickel and all special teams, his versatility impacts how the entire defense plays.

Richard Hill:

Rob Gronkowski: The Gronk will be a red zone threat that the Patriots have been missing the past couple of seasons. He'll catch in traffic and open up lanes for other receivers and running backs to score.

Devin McCourty: McCourty will surprise by splitting time with Darius Butler and will end up becoming a lockdown corner. His nickname: "The Flyswatter" because he knocks down any ball in his area.

Taylor Price:  Price finds his niche in the offense and ends up becoming a big time producer in the offense.

Stephen Verman:

Brandon Spikes: I see Spikes starting the season as part of an inside linebacker rotation, and making the strong side inside linebacker role his own by week 6. He is an intense competitor, and should team up well with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren to make the middle of the Patriots defense very difficult to run against. He had a knack for interceptions in college, and great anticipation skills. If he can translate that to the pro game he will become a formidable force.

Aaron Hernandez: Hernandez has the versatility to see a good amount of playing time as a rookie. He is an excellent pass catcher, and should benefit from having Moss on the outside to draw attention. I think Rob Gronkowski will see more red zone targets, but if Hernandez can get open, Tom Brady will find him.

Devin McCourty: I don't expect McCourty to start many games unless it is as a nickle back, but I do think he will have a positive impact on the defense and special teams. He is a very hard worker, and willing to do anything the coaches ask. His tackling skills and physical approach should add some bite to the secondary, and there is a chance he could earn a starting berth if Darius Butler struggles. He will also contribute a lot to special teams, and could end up as the MVP of that squad.

Greg Knopping:

To be completely honest, I had an extremely hard time picking my pre-season Rookie of the Year, as I could see Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez, and Zoltan Mesko all having an impact for the Patriots in 2010.  I ended up going with Devin McCourty because of his presence on special teams.  I think he will both return and cover kicks, and will be a very key player in this area from day one.  I also think he has a chance to overtake Darius Butler and grab a starting spot early on.  It's not a knock on Butler, but I just think that McCourty can be that good.  In terms of overall playing time, I think he will see more snaps than Spikes, who will mainly see action on first and second downs.

Speaking of Spikes, I expect him to have a big role with the team in 2010.  I think he will be the starting SILB from opening day, and should see about 50% of the total snaps.  I think he could even develop a role as a leader on the team early on too.  After all, the guy was calling the shots for the second team defense in his first full-squad NFL practices.

With my third pick I considered both Jermaine Cuningham and Zoltan Mesko, but decided I would go with offense, and specifically the tight end position.  While I think that Gronkowski will likely be the traditional starting tight end, I believe Aaron Hernandez will put up the better stats through a variety of different roles.  While Gronkowski could be the better overall player down the line, I think Aaron Hernandez has a chance to make more of an impact as a rookie.

FINAL VOTING TALLY:

1. Brandon Spikes (11 points)

2. Devin McCourty (10 points)

3. Aaron Hernandez (8 points)

Others Receiving Votes: Rob Gronkowski (5 points), Jermaine Cunningham (1 point), Taylor Price (1 point)

A couple of thoughts on how the voting went down:

 

  • I thought the voting was very close.  If a vote or two were switched, we could have had any of the top four win the "award."
  • I'm a little bit surprised that Zoltan Mesko didn't receive any votes.  He seems like a safe vote as he will more than likely be the Patriots only punter in 2010.  Not flashy, but safe.

 

On Monday, we will continue the Patriots prediction series by looking at players who could fall under the category of "most improved" in 2010.

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Poll
Who will be the Patriots' rookie of the year?
Devin McCourty
41 votes
Rob Gronkowski
78 votes
Jermaine Cunningham
14 votes
Brandon Spikes
155 votes
Taylor Price
18 votes
Aaron Hernandez
85 votes
Zoltan Mesko
29 votes

420 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 21 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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I figured Mesko was a lock at his position

and that anything he did (hopefully) would be a vast improvement over Chris Hanson’s efforts in 2009. Also, I’m hoping he won’t be used that much in 2010 : )

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 23, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Price

He will be part of our #3 WR rotation, and he will be awesome.

If not, then it’s Spikes.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 23, 2010 5:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Mesko's like a bulletproof vest...

It’s nice to know it’s there and that it works well, but you really don’t want to have to use him. If he makes a serious contribution to the Pats this year, it’s probably because the Offence is misfiring, which isn’t good. It’s no coincidence that the highest rated punter in the league in 2009 was on the team that ha(d) the worst QB and HB corps around.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 23, 2010 8:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Seems like the Colts and Saints have punters

that consistantly booted 50 yard punts. I could be wrong on that, but that was my perception. I agree with your point though.

by Ozstryker on Jul 24, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Easily explained - both the Colts and Saints play in domes

it definitely ups the punting average, unlike playing in Buffalo or Foxboro in December…

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

i voted for Hern.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 23, 2010 11:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Hernandez has a strong chance

for O rookie of the year for the league, provided chin cleft 2.0 calls some plays using him.

by Ozstryker on Jul 24, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

here is my think on this

Jermaine Cunningham may take time to learn the system but have no idea what his ceiling is.

Brandon Spikes will have to compete with Tyrone McKenzie so it all hinges on how well McKenzie plays. He has been hyped. We really won’t know until he plays how good he is .
Zoltan Mesko is a punter and they don’t count.

I see Gronkowski easily being NFL elite Pro-Bowl at his position so has a good chance.

I see Hernandez getting most playing time because of versatility so has a really has a good chance.

I see McCourty taking a year to learn the system. It’s hard for a CB to come out first year. Second year he may excel.

Taylor Price … watching his films and what his background is, I think can be an elite NFL receiver but he will be competing for playing time against other elite NFL receivers

I’d narrow the list down to Gronkowski, Hernandez and Spikes (because he has most hype)

Hernandez will easily have the most opportunity.

Gronkowski the most potential.

If Spikes starts, he will have an excellent chance since it will prove the hype is for real.

The bottom line … this is not easy but i think we will know early on who is not in contention

by prioris on Jul 24, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Even if McCourty isn't a starter straight away

as a nickelback he’ll be on the field a lot – the Pats were in sub and nickel packages over 50% of the time in 2009. If McCourty is third on the depth chart, he’ll get around 50% of defensive snaps in all likelihood. Add in special teams, and he’ll be on the field enough to contribute even if he’s not a starter.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

good point

but that won’t get him NFL rookie of the year

after thinking about Gronkowski more, TE position can take a lot of time to learn

so down to either Hernandez or Spike

and they gotta be fast learners

by prioris on Jul 25, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

My choice is Hernandez

I’d give the odds to favor Hernandez

but I’d like to see Spike succeed

by prioris on Jul 24, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Actually, if Jermaine Cunningham starts

He’ll definitely be my rookie of the year candidate. I just recently looked at Jerod Mayo’s college highlights, and compared both him and cunningham in terms of college contributions, and how they did on their team. So far, I get the same impression of mayo on the volunteers as cunningham on Florida. Of course, player personal around them is important, but just by looking at the player individually, and what they do, both seem to be very similar in terms of play style and consistency.

If Cunningham starts, I say he’ll be second or third in tackles, and has 5 sacks in the season. He’ll be our surprise of the year.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

IF he starts, you could be right

although Belichick hasn’t made a great use of rookie OLBs yet (although arguably, he’s never had to). If Hoodie is confident in Cunningham enough to give him early starting opportunities (I think it’s highly unlikely, but possible), then it’s because the kid has definitely shown enough in training camp and preseason to suggest he’s good enough. If he’s good enough to impress Hoodie as a rookie, he’s good enough to get the stats you’re suggesting.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

could be cunningham also if he starts

the patriots will be loaded with a ton of potentially outstanding young players who have hardly seen or never seen the field. there are so many players to choose from. it should be an interesting year.
 
except for punter, any rookie who starts will be a candidate right off the bat

by prioris on Jul 24, 2010 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

upon further thought ...

cunningham … played DE in college … will be his first time to play OLB … so steeper learning curve

by prioris on Jul 25, 2010 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Most 4-3 DEs in college make a pretty good transition to 3-4 OLB.

It’s because, and I’m sure you know, that 4-3 DEs are usually faster than 3-4 Ends. They have more pass rushing abilities. Since at the start, BB wanted Cunningham to learn as a 3-4 OLB, Cunningham would make a good transition judging from how much he learns the OLB playbook.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 25, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes (eventually)

He was a 4-3 OLB for a little while at Arizona, then played a lot as a starter at 4-3 DE (mainly as a sack specialist). He was drafted by the Pats and played OLB (in the Pats 4-3), usually at weakside OLB. When Hoodie instituted the 3-4, Bruschi made the ILB his spot.

Bruschi went from 4-3 OLB to 4-3 rush-DE to 4-3 OLB to 3-4 ILB over time, so his development was never too sudden to overwhelm him. It also gave him a variety of skills, which was particularly useful for a Pats-style LB.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 26, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cunningham played DE, but apparently dropped back in zones a fair chunk of the time

So he (and Belichick) have said they expect his learning curve to be a little less steep than other rookie DE-to-OLB conversion jobs. He already knows a little about dropping back and covering passing lanes, and Hoodie will want to build off that already present knowledge (which is another benefit of the Gators running similar concepts to the Pats).

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 25, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

yep

i’ve seen few gator games in the last two yrs…Cunningham did play a lot of zone flats, cover the rb etc

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 25, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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