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What Does Wes Welker's Early Return Mean for the Patriots' Receivers?

After word broke yesterday that Wes Welker would more than likely be ready for the start of training camp, there's really nothing that can describe the elation that Patriots fans felt.  After all, Wes is one of the most important players on the Patriots' roster, and there's no denying what he means to the Patriots both on and off the field.  His presence would immediately calm all my fears (well, almost all of them) about the offense (that is, assuming he is close to 100%).

While I don't want to jump the gun on Welker (after all, Karen Guregian reported late last night that the team was still considering putting Welker on the active PUP list to start camp), having Welker back means huge things for the Patriots offense, and it certainly changes the outlook at the wide receiver position.

With Welker back, the Patriots will have him, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price, Sam Aiken, David Patten, Buddy Farnham, Darnell Jenkins, and Matthew Slater at the wide receiver position.  Simply put, the team is absolutely stacked there.

Star-divide

While you never want to count anyone out, it appears that Buddy Farnham and Darnell Jenkins are the longest shots to make the roster from this group at the time being.  This would leave the Patriots with nine legitimate wide receivers on the roster; all players that could make most rosters in the league.

When you look at Belichick teams of the past, I think you can safely expect six receivers to make the roster.  Welker and Moss are the absolute 100% locks.  Julian Edelman is close to that.  Beyond Edelman, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price are both very young, and with the team having invested 3rd round picks in the pair over the last two years, it seems like they are a safe bet to make the squad.

With all of this said, this means the Patriots have five virtual locks to make the roster at the wide receiver position.  And it leaves David Patten, Sam Aiken, Torry Holt, and Matthew Slater to compete for two spots.

From there, I separate Patten/Holt and Aiken/Slater into two separate groups.  The first are the savvy veterans, guys who are past their primes but still have something to offer on the field and in the locker room.  The latter two are the special teams guys.  While they may be able to play wide receiver in a pinch, they aren't the greatest receivers, and make their impact felt on special teams.

Looking at the individual "match-ups" it appears, at this point, that Holt and Aiken would be the clear-cut favorites to win those battles (despite the David Patten fan that I am).  After that, it probably comes down to a numbers game.  The Patriots have kept up to eight receivers in the past (2008), so it's not inconceivable that they could keep seven.  However, with a slew of young players on the defensive side of the ball, one of those spots could be sacrificed if a young receiver (Edelman, Tate or Price) steps up in offensive development (makes Holt expendable) or on special teams (makes Aiken expandable).

Bottom line is this: if Wes Welker's return means that the Patriots must part ways with Torry Holt or Sam Aiken, I doubt many Patriots fans will be complaining.

Poll
With Wes Welker (probably) back for the start of the regular season, who is the most likely camp casualty?
Torry Holt
57 votes
Sam Aiken
217 votes
Neither, both will make the roster
174 votes

448 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 32 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I voted Holt because of Aiken's special teams...

…but I really think that Welker will be game day inactive for the first couple weeks and that both Aiken and Holt make the team.

by Richard Hill on Jul 24, 2010 6:47 PM EDT reply actions  

This was an analysis piece more than an opinion piece, so I'll give my opinion here

I think the team is ultimately going to keep seven receivers, with the casualty being at running back.

Bottom line, after Moss/Welker, not a single receiver on the Patriots roster would have more than 47 career catches. The Patriots need experience at the position, considering the only player at tight end that has played an NFL game is Alge Crumpler. Torry Holt provides that experience. I think he will have a decent year as well.

by Greg Knopping on Jul 24, 2010 6:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I think that Holt has a certain aspect that makes him...

…a much better player than a Joey Galloway. I don’t know what it is, but he seems much more team oriented and I feel like that’s a characteristic that will make him succeed.

by Richard Hill on Jul 24, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

You'll note...

that when Galloway came into Foxboro, the first (only?) thing he talked about was how he was just as fast as always – “I’ve still got it”. In comparison, Holt wanted to be known as ‘smoothe’ – in his route-running and pass-catching abilities. I like the shift in emphasis.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I also think it's important to note...

…the actuality of Welker’s return. He’s getting the okay for training camp- but that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be ready for week 1. It just means that he’ll be a full participant. He can still get stashed away on the PUP list.

by Richard Hill on Jul 24, 2010 6:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I personally want welker on PUP.

Not only will it be safer, but we get to have our young guys play build on field, and in game chemistry with tom brady. Also furthering their experience on the field.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 7:00 PM EDT reply actions  

*play AND build

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, and Sam Aiken is staying. There is no way BB will let go one of his best special teams players.

Even though he did with Izzo…

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Unless he replaces Aiken with Slater

Slater might go from being a super-athletic gunner type to being an Aiken ST leader-type, expecially with McCourty on the roster as an athlete, too. Slater’s flat-out quicker than Aiken, is big enough to contribute in all ST units, and can play a little Safety, too.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know. Replacing a great special teams player, who was and still is the special teams captain for (a year?)

Aiken may have an edge over slater in that department. Slater has been excellent in punt coverage though, moreso than kick return coverage. And maybe belichek can take the chance of cutting aiken, and make slater team captain, but it jst seems a bit too far fetched.

I think it depends on how well McCourty performs on the special teams squad, whether in camp or in pre-season. If McCourty proves to be a great gunner, and punt and kick return coverage as he was in college, then I personally think he’ll replace Slater in a heartbeat, and BB will keep Aiken as their captain.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's the untested thing, yes - how much of a leader Slater is (or could be)

There’s another fact about Slater that you could weigh up when considering him as a possible Aiken replacement – he has the heritage and upbringing of an NFL captain. Specifically, Matthew Slater’s father was NFL lineman and Hall of Famer, Jackie Slater.

You’d think he’d learn a thing or two about football and leadership from a childhood in the shadow of an NFL Hall of Famer. That’s one reason I wouldn’t count him out just yet; if he’s anything like his father he could well be a captain-in-waiting.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, that should be taken into account.

If I want anyone other than Aiken as captain, it would be Slater.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

As much as I like welker

Him not playing is probably best for the longterm development of the younger recievers

by Jake00p on Jul 24, 2010 7:34 PM EDT reply actions  

I love David Patten

but I think he’ll be the casualty here, not Holt or Aiken

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 24, 2010 7:44 PM EDT reply actions  

sadly true...patten is 37 yrs old right?

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 24, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

close enough

He’ll be 36 in August.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 24, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

We know T.O. keeps himself in top shape

But he’ll be 37 this season. So I imagine Patten must be in great shape as well.

by Greg Knopping on Jul 24, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's 35 right now

and will turn 36 on Aug. 19. He was born in 1974.

For a football player, 37 sounds a lot older than 36.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 25, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Never mind -- T.O. was born in '73

He’s even a year older than Patten. I thought Patten was older for some reason – guess I haven’t been watching enough of the T.O. Show.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 25, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

that show is kinda boring

chad’s show=the best ever

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 25, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I fear

that if Welker is back week one, he takes away from using the tight ends and other wide receivers. And as good as he is, spreading the ball around to everyone is better.

by ATM on Jul 24, 2010 8:09 PM EDT reply actions  

my wr projections

Randy Moss
Wes
Torry Holt
Julian Edelman
Brandon Tate,
Taylor Price
Sam Aiken

my rb projection
Lo-Mo
Faulk
Taylor
BJGE Or Morris…either one will be cut

my TE projections
Crumpler
Ghost
Hernandez

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 24, 2010 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I suspect you're right

although if you’re bracketing BJGE and Morris (which I think is wise), you might bracket Aiken and Slater, too. They provide slightly different skillsets and flexibility to the bottom of the WR roster and special teams, so I’ll suspect they’ll figure out who is more useful for the ST unit and cut the other one. If they need a super-athletic gunner, AIken’s gone. If they need the ST leadership more, Slater’s cut.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 24, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope Welker is inactive for game 1

to force O’Brien to game plan beyond Moss and Welker.

I also agree that the youth at WR need reps as soon as possible and as often as possible. The TE’s must be a factor this year if the PATS expect to return to Super Bowl form. To me, keeping five RB’s is unnecessary. I’d pick between Morris and Taylor. Start using BJGE regularly, and make Maroney your feature back – and hope he produces.

Please don’t say that injury concerns warrant both Morris and Taylor and five RB’s total. My immediate reply is to say what the heck did they plan around three backs over 33 years old for in the first place. Geesh.

I have been forced into submission from other threads to accept Aiken as necessary even though his other role is of no value: #7 WR. Therefore, I am shifting to RB as the area to cut a player.

I do favor keeping many defensive lineman since Deaderick and Weston will not last on the practice squad. D. Lewis and G. Warren were great free agent acquisitions, Wright is a fixture, and both Brace and Pryor are keys to the future. I want all of them kept active and used. That leaves the core of Wilfork and T. Warren: nine gems: yound, middle age, and old. Perfect mix.

by couchpotato on Jul 24, 2010 8:54 PM EDT reply actions  

We'll see what happens with Warren.

Chances are that he’s our Adalius Thomas of DEs.

I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!

Down with Big Brother!

by patriotguy2 on Jul 24, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

For long term health purposes Welker should be on the PUP list to start the season. If Welker has a set back it could derail your season. Belichick usually has his nicked -up veterans on the PUP list so as to give his veterans a rest and his rookies a longer look in camp.

Holt is probably an upgrade on Galloway but that’s not saying much. I question if Holt has anything left at this point in his career. I didn’t see much explosion or separation in Jacksonville from Holt.

by Ravens One on Jul 24, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

cfl sucks..its like watching hs football and arena footballl combined

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Jul 24, 2010 10:13 PM EDT reply actions  

It means David Givens is DOOMED. DOOMED I say!

And possibly Matt Slater, if he has an unimpressive preseason…

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 24, 2010 11:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice writeup, Greg!

Personally, I’d prefer to see Welker sit it out for a while. Whether that means a lighter TC schedule or warming the pine for the first few games, I’m ok with him resting up that knee.

When I saw the well publicized and carefully “orchestrated” training camp videos of Wes cutting and juking, I was elated and, at the same time, cringing. Maybe this is designed as gamesmanship to make other teams nervous and spend money/resources planning for his return in the beginning of the season.

Reality is a matter of opinion.

by MaPatsFan on Jul 25, 2010 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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