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2009 Patriots Pass Coverage Analysis

I know, we're hours away from the 2010 season starting but here I am looking back one last time at the 2009 team for some analysis. Many Pats fans were surprised by the pick of Devin McCourty but after sifting through Pro Football Focus' pass coverage numbers it seems pretty clear that adding a top flight corner was absolutely necessary.

My findings after the jump...

Star-divide

You can waste away a good portion of your life browsing though all of ProFootballFocus.com's stats and they recently added all their pass coverage numbers. Here are the 2009 Patriots Defensive Back rankings from best to worst (lower is better, click the ratings to go to the corresponding stats page):

Leigh Bodden 59.7 - Bodden was obviously the best Patriot DB, you didn't need stats to tell you that, but he was clearly hard to consistently throw on despite giving up four touchdowns. Teams threw at him more than anyone (probably  because he was the only consistent starter so seeing a lot of passes was inevitable) but he still only gave up catches 50% of the time. That was better than every other Pats DB.

Brandon Meriweather 64.7 - The stats confirm Meriweather had a horrid day versus New Orleans, that long TD was his fault but it was the only one he gave up last season according to these rankings. I actually feel better about Meriweather after seeing these stats. His inconsistency isn't as glaring here as it was on the field. A little improvement could really put him into the top five safeties in the NFL. 

Darius Butler 67.4 - the stats confirm Patriots fans have reason to be excited about Butler. He was targeted a lot in the second Miami game but held his own. Only once did his ranking go over 100 in a game, best on the team. Clearly the team brought him along slowly, but I'd feel good about seeing him as a starter.

Shawn Springs 90.5 - These numbers make it a little more clear why Springs didn't see much action in the middle part of the season. Both Baltimore and Denver went after him and had a lot of success.

James Sanders 105.6 - Kinda surprising to see the "steadying force" ranked so badly in coverage huh? He didn't have a big sample size, but these numbers make me wonder if Sanders could be on the bubble.

Brandon McGowan 114.8 - This is exactly what you thought, he's a run stopping safety, he wasn't thrown at a lot but when he was it wasn't pretty. Being so one-dimensional cold spell danger for him.

Jonathan Wilhite115.3 - Even I didn't think the stats would show a disaster this bad for Wilhite. The only good games he had were when teams didn't throw at him. He gave up more TDs than any other DB, and really had only one good game when teams did throw on him, the second Buffalo game.

Patrick Chung really didn't have enough of a sample size to include him here, but it's pretty clear that there's a need for a safety who can cover as well as play at the line of scrimmage. If Chung can prove better in coverage than Sanders and McGowan (which doesn't look too hard) he could be your day one starter next to Meriweather.

It's even clearer to me now that Jonathan Wilhite might be a dime back at best and this team badly needed a third corner, more than even Patriots blogging gurus like myself thought. Hopefully McCourty is the answer. If he and Chung can rise to the occasion this season the Patriots defensive backfield should be excellent for years to come.

And finally, because I know you're wondering, here are the coverage rankings for Darrelle Revis (29.1, that's right 29.1), Anotonio Cromartie (72.0) and Asante Samuel (79.3).

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Comments

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Bodden and Butler were both better than Cromartie and Asante Samuel?

That’s impressive, especially since Samuel earned a Pro Bowl berth. I picked Butler as my player to watch/most likely to improve in 2010 before I saw this; if Butler can pump out a full season as a starter with those kind of numbers, he’ll be pushing Bodden for 5+ interceptions and overall impact.

Those numbers make me think McCourty’s exceedingly likely to take the nickel slot at the outset. As for Sanders, I wonder if this is one of those times the stats don’t reflect the reality. He surely wasn’t that bad.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 28, 2010 10:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Hopefully.

A lot of this just depends on the players and we can only hope that players like Butler, Chung, and Merriwether improve. (they are likely to) You never know with injuries and stuff liek that. See: Shawn Crable.

by Huzaifa P on Jul 28, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Injuries

are the huge X factor to every team. Let’s just hope everyone makes it to the start of the season and then go from there.

by MikeDussault on Jul 28, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Butler

Statistically his worst game was against the Colts. He played 42 of 68 snaps, primarily as the slot corner, Manning threw at him 9 times and completed 7, but he only allowed 14 yards of YAC. That’s 2 yards per catch. So that tells me he’s right there even when he’s giving up catches, and making solid tackles. A year of experience he could be breaking on those balls even quicker and getting INTs. Plus he was docked in rating because of that horrid PI call that put the Colts on our 11. So yes, I feel VERY good about him right now.

by MikeDussault on Jul 28, 2010 11:17 PM EDT reply actions  

That's the thing about Butler

…He really didn’t interfere with catches very much with his hands…but he was right there running alongside. Gives high hopes that he can add that piece on (he’s got what for most is the hard part), but some worries because the difference was so dramatic.

by pablum257 on Jul 29, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

As long as he doesn't think making tackles is for sissies

I think Butler can, and will, improve all phases of his game with more experience

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Jul 29, 2010 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I fully expect Bodden to have a Pro Bowl type of season

We all know the story with Wilhite, was usually in position but failed to make plays on the ball and allowed a lot of touchdowns.

I don’t think the numbers are really accurate for safeties, as a lot of balls thrown their way will be caught, regardless of their skill in coverage. James Sanders had such a high rating because he failed to pick off a pass. One interception would have been huge for the passer rating, and I remember he did drop one gimme.

by Greg Knopping on Jul 28, 2010 11:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed about the safeties...

…and Sanders is more of a player who was the opposite of Meriweather- he won’t make a play, but he won’t give up any big ones either.

by Richard Hill on Jul 29, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wilhite was awful against the #2 receivers...

…which is why I’m happy to see him as our #4 corner this season.

by Richard Hill on Jul 29, 2010 8:20 AM EDT reply actions  

wilhite doesnt make any plays on the ball

i think and hope he is our #5 cb. cmon wheatley step up and make it happen dont let what happened to crable happen to you.

by brady12mvp3 on Jul 29, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree...

…with such an early release of Shawn Crable, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wheatley was released if he doesn’t pass Wilhite.

by Richard Hill on Jul 29, 2010 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

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