Projecting a Patriots' 53 Man Roster: Version 4.0
It was six days since I released my last Patriots roster projection, but a lot has changed in those six days. The Patriots played their first preseason game, and we've had some personnel changes, some praise for certain players, among other things that has changed the way I see the Patriots final roster. So lets get to it:
Quarterback (2): Tom Brady, #12; Brian Hoyer, #8
This position once again remains stable. Brian Hoyer played well, and Zac Robinson didn't play well enough to make me think that he's worth a roster spot (although it seems likely he will land on the practice squad).
Running Back (5): Laurence Maroney, #39; Kevin Faulk, #33; Sammy Morris, #34; Fred Taylor, #21; BenJarvus Green-Ellis, #42
I was going to go with four running backs, but then I realized I had room for one more. So I'm still going with five. Fred Taylor apparently has impressed coaches of late, so he makes the roster. BenJarvus Green-Ellis got a lot of chances Thursday, although I wouldn't read too much into that. Sammy Morris provides value as a fullback, but he's also on the roster bubble. Honestly, with Laurence Maroney playing behind BenJarvus, maybe even he's on the roster bubble. I have no idea what's going to happen with this position. Ask me next week.
Wide Receiver (5): Randy Moss, #81; Wes Welker, #83; Brandon Tate, #19; Julian Edelman, #11; Taylor Price, #17
This marks the first time I do not have Torry Holt on my final roster. In the Patriots' preseason opener, Tom Brady played a lot under center, often with multiple tight ends. The top four receivers (Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman) are pretty set in stone. Taylor Price is your developmental 5th receiver, Sam Aiken could earn a spot for his special teams play. If the Patriots play less four and five receiver sets, there really isn't much of a reason to keep Torry Holt on board. Also keep in mind that on a lot of downs, rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez was used in a receiver-esque role.
Tight End (3): Alge Crumpler, #82; Aaron Hernandez, #85; Rob Gronkowski, #87
The only change I have at this position is Gronkowski and Crumpler switching on the depth chart. This could change back, but Thursday's game made me believe that Crumpler is close to a lock to make this team.
Offensive Tackle (4): Matt Light, #72; Sebastian Vollmer, #76; Mark LeVoir, #64; George Bussey, #66
Did Thursday's game make you think that the Patriots need help with their depth at offensive tackle? Good, I'm not the only one then. George Bussey, Mark LeVoir, and Thomas Welch all played sub-par games Thursday. Lets hope the play at this position can improve.
Interior Line (5): Dan Connolly, #63; Dan Koppen, #67; Stephen Neal, #61; Rich Ohrnberger, #60; Ryan Wendell, #69
Ted Larsen is the only cut on the interior line, I didn't think he played well Thursday. He could easily change his status with a good finish to the preseason. Besides Larsen, Eric Ghiaciuc has a chance to earn a roster spot, so long as he doesn't play like he did on Thursday.
Defensive Line (6): Mike Wright, #99; Vince Wilfork, #75; Gerard Warren, #68; Myron Pryor, #91; Brandon Deaderick, #71; Ron Brace, #97
Before the news broke that Ty Warren was going to land on the injured reserve, I had Ron Brace starting the season on PUP. Now, I have Brace on the active roster with Damione Lewis still getting the boot. Brandon Deaderick had a great game Thursday, and looks like he could be a significant part of the Patriots defensive line rotation as a rookie, as he could be the top backup to Mike Wright at right defensive end. If Ron Brace starts the season on the PUP list, Damione Lewis will likely make the team. Kade Weston and Kyle Love will have their chances as well.
Outside Linebacker (5): Tully Banta-Cain, #95; Jermaine Cunningham, #96; Derrick Burgess, #53; Marques Murrell, #93; Rob Ninkovich, #50
I'm still torn between Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods for the final roster spot. Both are never going to be great, but are solid fill-in players. Both have special teams battle. And it seems with the return of Derrick Burgess and the emergence of Marques Murrell, both are fighting for one roster spot.
Inside Linebacker (5): Jerod Mayo, #51; Brandon Spikes, #55; Gary Guyton, #59; Tyrone McKenzie, #44; Dane Fletcher, #45
This top four at this position are remaining the same for me right now. The only one who isn't a lock at this point is Tyrone McKenzie, who seems to have fallen down the depth chart. Brandon Spikes likely won't relinquish his starting spot to Gary Guyton when Guyton returns from injury. Dane Fletcher remains on my final roster for the second straight week. I like what he brings to the table in terms of versatility, instinct, etc.
Cornerback (6): Leigh Bodden, #23; Darius Butler, #28; Devin McCourty, #32; Jonathan Wilhite, #24; Terrence Wheatley, #22; Kyle Arrington, #27
The only change I have in the cornerback group this week is Terrence Wheatley making the final roster. Wheatley had a great game Thursday and even earned the praise of head coach BIll Belichick. I still think Jonathan Wilhite will make the roster. Upon further review, he had a decent game on Thursday, although he missed a couple of tackles. Kyle Arrington had a couple of big hits Thursday, and he's still a great special teams player.
Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, #31; Patrick Chung, #25; Brandon McGowan, #30; James Sanders, #36
Patrick Chung had a great game Thursday and has solidified his role as starting strong safety. Past Meriweather and Chung, it looks like Brandon McGowan is still going to have a role on the 2010 team, mostly as a nickel back. James Sanders is on the roster bubble, and his lack of value on special teams could hurt him. Still, unless a youngster like Sergio Brown can unseat him, I think the Patriots will stick with four at the position.
Special Teams (3): Stephen Gostkowski, #3; Zoltan Mesko, #14; Jake Ingram, #46
Could Rob Ninkovich or Thomas Welch's versatility as a long snapper make Jake Ingram expendable? No, probably not. That's all. There's no real competition in camp for any of these three.
Practice Squad (8):
1. Ted Larsen, C
2. Zac Robinson, QB
3. Kade Weston, DL
4. Thomas Williams, FB/LB
5. Darnell Jenkins, WR
6. Sergio Brown, S
7. Rob Myers, TE
8. Kyle Love, DL
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Sergio
It should be Sergio Brown replacing James Sanders. Brown played special teams and had 4 tackles in limited playing time against the Saints. Brown is fast (4.4) and hard hitting and would also be the tallest DB or Safety for the Patriots.
I was actually close to giving Sergio the spot over Sanders
But we know what Sanders can do.
We’ve only seen one game of Sergio Brown.
Brown certainly outplayed Sanders, but I need a larger sample size to make that decision.
by Greg Knopping on Aug 15, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
had the same idea as NH max
i was impressed w. Sergio…..we can trade Sanders for a draft pick (also he earns starter $)
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
6 WR and 5 CB
I don’t think so that we will go with just 5 WR.
Imo Holt will make the rooster also, and one CB won’t.
Holt's on IR, so he's a wash
but you could also argue that Hernandez makes the 6th WR – he’s playing slot Big Receiver more often that not in that Dallas Clark role, so he’s arguably more of a WR than a TE anyway.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 15, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
No Holt but Aiken
Holt’s on IR (but still with the team, and that’s’ good), so Aiken can make the rooster.
Good spec. teamer, and not bad WR.
Do we really need 6 CBs?? I don’t think so…
CB Kyle Arrington
I was at the pre-season game and Arrington was laying the wood on a couple of Saints receivers! —late in the 4th quarter-Arrington hit a receiver so hard that the receiver had to take himself out of the game after that play….If this is the kind of play Arrington brings while on defense, it’s going to be a very exciting season. He has impressed me !
He impressed me for much the same reason last year
No coincidence that the guy who forced the fumble on special teams in the Ravens playoff game on that punt return was, you guessed it, one Kyle Arrington.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 15, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Arrington hits like a free safety.
He hits, tackles and closes well. ’Still needs to improve on his cover skills.
for offensive line evaluation i think one factor ...
we don’t take into account is how well they work together as a unit
even the first string will break down without working in sync as a unit
so we have to give the other offensive lines time to get that cohesion and communication going to operate as a unit
i think ghiaciuc and maybe even welch with more preseason games will get better
i think they will have to make room for welch unless they feel comfortable he can be protected on practice squad
Welch was terrible Thursday
Unless he shows something different, there’s no way he makes the roster.
by Greg Knopping on Aug 15, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
the big question is why
is it because he lacks the a) potential talent, b) the technique, c) still getting use to playbook, d) other players around him or e) level level of experience opposing him, f) most of above
if it is a) then it is over.
it’s actually better if he doesn’t play good because of the latter since they can just put him on practice squad and groom him.
Technique, playbook, inexperience
He was a college TE that only relatively recently converted to OT. He’s got nice size, and presumably TE-like athleticism, but he’s raw and inexperienced at playing genuine O-line.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 15, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Holt is only question mark
I think you’ve got it pretty down, apart from Holt.
If Welker isn’t 100% at the start of the season (and realistically , as good as he has done, he won’t be 100% at all this season) then you have Moss Edelman and some promising youngsters…or another way of putting is, not much more than last year if anything, and we know how that went.
Holt stays, BB won’t make that mistake again.
Don’t know who won’t make the cut, Wendell I would say…
I would rather have Moss, Edelman, and tate, than Moss, edelman, and Holt.
I may even have Price ahead of him. I’m not very excited for Holt as a contributer this season OTHER than leadership.
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
Down with Big Brother!
i would cut Wilhite and keep Comedic Sans man love and the other Wonder Twin
and maybe try find another CB
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Hey, I'm allowed my one low-depth-chart man-crush
And I liked Arrington the first time I saw him, and said so; him getting a playoff turnover on special teams sealed it.
Gimme a big-tackling CB who steps it up in the playoffs (Arrington) over a no-tackler who forgets what the ball looks like in playoffs (Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, etc).
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 15, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Wilhite had one big hit...
…but after further review, he didn’t even knock away the ball on the play that was deep downfield. The receiver just flat missed the ball and it bounced off his arms. Wilhite was beat. He didn’t touch the ball.
Trying to think like BB
One way to predict the roster is to think like BB, BB never says much, but we CAN watch what he actually does.
BB likes veterans on n D.Always has always will. I assume this has to with BB’s ability to evaluate a player. He knows EXACTLY what he is going to get from Tully. This year the Pats D is young and BB is going with it.
When looking at close calls on the roster be careful about "tossing"the Pierre Woods’ of the world. They are known quantities and BB is known to stick with the known quantity. Wheatley has been around for a little while, but, BB must see something in him or he wouldn’t; be here. Maroney will stay here. BB has been working with him since day one and now BB has a “veteran” Dillon like back…maybe, but he has no other choices…his money is on Maroney
Hoyer is highly regarded by BB….there are no “veteran” QB’s on the roster horizon and this is BB telling us Hoyer is damn good.
We are stuck with a young D. BB is not in a position to do anything as of today except develop the young D. I say that because that is exactly what he is doing. The pats do not have a bunch of vets on D. All of their key positions are young players and that is what we have this season and that is what we are going to get. I would not be surprised to see the pats get better with each game. 11-5 and the division with Jets 10-6. By playoff time the pats might just be the best AFC team. Benjy is the only legit threat….Don’t tell me you are worried about Rivers..
it is not about predicting the entire roster and reading BB's mind
At this point at least 90% of the roster is predictable and a virtual lock .
It is really about predicting the last remaining excess roster spots and which positions and maybe cutting a veteran
Those spots will likely be OLB, DE, OL
One could throw a little doubt for DB but i think that’s clarified
Everything else seem pretty locked
I even think the patriots have even decided the DE now
Will Deaderick and Fletcher make roster ?
i think so but the next game or so will help clarify that
Will Ninkovich and Pierre Woods make it ?
I can easily see them cutting a veteran RB to keep both of them.
I lean toward Pierre Woods unless they think Ninkovich could be starter some day
The OL is still up in the air …
I think rest of roster decisions comes down to ....
If we assume Fletcher and Deaderick make the roster then the situation is and expectations don’t change much:
Sergio Brown will be cut from roster unless they cut Sanders.
Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods will compete for 1 roster spot unless another roster spot becomes available. I think they both deserve to make it . This will be one of the toughest cuts.
Thomas Welch gets cut unless a roster spot becomes available. They need to protect him I think.
Wendell and Ghiaciuc or whoever else they bring in – will compete for 1 roster spot unless another roster spot becomes available. I think they just need one here.
Where can a roster spots become available:
I see only …
cut Jonathan Wilhite
cut RB
I think Damione will be cut.
Sergio Brown will be cut from roster unless they cut Sanders.
They might try to shift Sanders in trade – he’s starting quality for some teams, after all, so there is likely some trade value to the right team. Might only be a 4th or 5th rounder, but might as well get something out of him if he’s going to be cut otherwise.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 15, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I would trade Sanders for a 4th in a heartbeat.
by Richard Hill on Aug 15, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
In for a 4th, get 5 good years out of him, out for a 4th?
That’s excellent value. Seymour-ish.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Aug 16, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
the one reservation i have is ...
Deaderick is considered a very durable player
Fletcher is known to be more injury prone
unless Fletcher proves himself more durable,
i wouldn’t get too emotionally high on him
he is more a roll of the dice prospect no matter how well he performs on field
until he can prove his durability

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