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Projecting a Patriots' 53 Man Roster: Version 3.0

Now that we are a week and a half through training camp, I thought it would be a good idea to take another look at how the Patriots' 53 man roster might turn out week one.  We've had some injuries, some players elevating their performance, as well as some players not quite turning heads as expected.  That being said, lets take a look at my current roster.

Quarterback (2): Tom Brady, #12; Brian Hoyer, #8

Nothing has changed at the quarterback position so far in training camp.  While Zac Robinson has shown some flashes, I don't think that the team will keep a roster spot open for him.  He is far more likely to land on the practice squad.  Tom Brady is Tom Brady, and Brian Hoyer continues to show why the team made him the top backup to Tom Brady last season.

Running Back (4): Laurence Maroney, #39; Kevin Faulk, #33; Sammy Morris, #34; Fred Taylor, #21; BenJarvus Green-Ellis, #42

This position could really spark some debate, and I had a hard time deciding.  Ultimately, I have the Patriots keeping all five backs.  Bill Belichick recently had some praise for the work ethic and playing style of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, so I think he can hold down a spot, as he also has some special teams coverage duties.  Fred Taylor has looked shaky at times, dropping some passes, but I still thinks he adds value as a runner (although he could be on the chopping block).  Sammy Morris is a solid, versatile all-around back who is the team's top fullback as well, so I think he should maintain a roster spot.  Overall though, the only locks for the final roster seem to be Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. FINAL CUT: FRED TAYLOR.  I always like to have 54 on my final roster so I have to make one tough final cut.  I decided to go with Fred Taylor.

Wide Receiver (6): Randy Moss, #81; Wes Welker, #83; Brandon Tate, #19; Julian Edelman, #11; Torry Holt, #84; Taylor Price, #17

The big cut here is Sam Aiken.  He isn't the most valuable receiver, and some of his special team duties, like as the team's gunner, have been stripped from him.  So if he isn't the top player he once was on special teams, why would the Patriots use a roster spot on him when the team has so many young special teams options?  The other bubble player I have making the roster is Torry Holt.  While Holt has struggled in camp, I think that he provides some nice leadership for the young guys on the team.  Also, he is a nice injury insurance for any of the guys (Welker, Tate), who are recovering from knee injuries.

Tight End (3): Rob Gronkowski, #87; Aaron Hernandez, #85; Alge Crumpler, #82

Like quarterback, my tight end group is remaining constant.  Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are on top of the depth chart like many Patriots fans hoped/expected.  Alge Crumpler could be fighting for his roster life, but he has looked good in camp and will be a valuable blocking presence in short yardage situations.

Offensive Tackle (4): Matt Light, #72; Sebastian Vollmer, #76; Mark LeVoir, #64; George Bussey, #66

With the Patriots having to keep extra bodies at guard due to the Nick Kaczur/Logan Mankins situation, I have the team going with only three tackles true tackles.  I could see Thomas Welch sneaking onto the 53, but right now, I'm going with George Bussey because of his ability to slide over to guard.

**NOTE: Until I here otherwise, I'm planning for the worst and putting Kaczur on injured reserve.

Guard (4): Stephen Neal, #61; Dan Connolly, #63; Rich Ohrnberger, #60; Ryan Wendell, #69

The Patriots are in a real jam at the guard position.  Stephen Neal is healthy for now, but has been more fragile in recent years.  Nick Kaczur might land on the injured reserve with his back issues.  Dan Connolly has been solid in reserve, and may wind up in a starting role.  Eric Ghiaciuc has a chance to make the roster, especially if Kaczur/Mankins don't return.  To me, this team needs Logan Mankins more than ever.  I don't know if that bridge has been burned, but the Patriots should try to get Mankins into camp, even if it means giving him a Jahri Evans-esque deal.

Center (2): Dan Koppen, #67; Ted Larsen, #62

This position was simple enough for me.  Dan Koppen is your starting center, Ted Larsen is hopefully your center of the future.  Wendell, Ohrnberger, and Connolly are all also capable of playing center.

Defense after the jump!

Star-divide

Nose Tackle (3): Vince Wilfork, #75; Myron Pryor, #91; Ron Brace, #97

Hopefully, Ron Brace can get it together, get in shape, and get on the field.  If not, an upstart undrafted rookie free agent, Kyle Love, may take his job.

Defensive End (4): Ty Warren, #94; Mike Wright, #99; Gerard Warren, #68; Kade Weston, #66

Gerard Warren is going to have a spot on this team, whether it be as a defensive end or nose tackle.  He has provided a lot of leadership and toughness to the Patriots defensive line so far in camp.  Myron Pryor makes Damione Lewis expendable.  Mike Wright and Ty Warren are your starters, assuming Ty Warren can get healthy relatively soon.  I also think the Patriots will keep one of the rookies on the 53, whether it be Kade Weston, Brandon Deaderick, or Kyle Love.  Right now, I'm going with Weston, who seems to be a little bit ahead of Deaderick.

Outside Linebacker (4): Tully Banta-Cain, #95; Jermaine Cunningham, #96; Pierre Woods, #58; Rob Ninkovich, #50

This position gets more interesting if the Patriots pick up a pass rusher like Aaron Schobel or Adewale Ogunleye, or have Derrick Burgess return from the abyss.  But for now, it appears the top four rush linebackers are Tully Banta-Cain, Jermaine Cunningham, Pierre Woods, and Rob Ninkovich.  Marques Murrell could make the roster as a special teamer.

Inside Linebacker (5): Jerod Mayo, #51; Brandon Spikes, #55; Gary Guyton, #59; Tyrone McKenzie, #44; Dane Fletcher, #45

So we have a big surprise here: I have Dane Fletcher making the Patriots final roster.  Every year, a rookie free agent seems to stick on with the Patriots.  This year, I think it could be Kyle Love or Dane Fletcher.  Fletcher was a pass rushing defensive end at Montana State, where he put up big numbers.  He's made the transition to inside linebacker, and it's been pretty smooth so far, with the rookie even earning praise from head coach Bill Belichick.  If Fletcher can continue to progress, play some nickel defensive end and outside linebacker as well as special teams, there could be a spot for him on the Patriots roster.  Beyond Fletcher, we have Mayo starting on the weak side, with the rookie Brandon Spikes starting on the strong side.  Gary Guyton becomes your sub-package/3rd-down inside linebacker, with Tyrone McKenzie a tackling machine that can do a bit of everything.  Thomas Williams is a tough cut here.  It also appears that Eric Alexander might be on his way out of New England.

Cornerback (5): Leigh Bodden, #23; Darius Butler, #28; Devin McCourty, #32; Jonathan Wilhite, #24; Kyle Arrington, #27

The top four at cornerback are pretty much set in stone, so we'll look at the fifth cornerback battle.  I have Terrence Wheatley getting cut here, with Kyle Arrington getting the nod.  Arrington has shown some value in coverage this training camp, but remains a cog on special teams.  Wheatley wouldn't see many snaps as the fifth corner, and there are players like Brandon Meriweather and Patrick Chung who can move up and cover receivers close to the line.

Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, #31; Patrick Chung, #25; Brandon McGowan, #30; James Sanders, #36

Bret Lockett has a chance to sneak in here as a special teams player.  Brandon Meriweather and Patrick Chung seem pretty set in stone as the starters.  Brandon McGowan has been playing in a lot of nickel and dime packages.  James Sanders might be facing an uphill battle for a roster spot, but I think the Patriots will keep him around for his value in the locker room and as a safety valve.

Special Teams (3): Stephen Gostkowski, #3; Zoltan Mesko, #14; Jake Ingram, #46

Do I really need to do any explaining with this position?  The only possible way these three aren't together is if a player like Thomas Welch makes Jake Ingram expendable as a long snapper, but that is highly unlikely.

Practice Squad:

1. Zac Robinson

2. Brandon Deaderick

3. Thomas Welch

4. Kyle Love

5. Darryl Richard

6. Terrence Johnson

7. Rob Meyers

8. Thomas Williams

Poll
How was my 53-man roster projection:
It was great! I would only change a couple things
230 votes
It was solid, there's some changes I would make though
184 votes
It was alright, but we don't really see eye to eye
19 votes
Lets just be glad you're not calling the shots
32 votes

465 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 29 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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About BJGE...

…Belichick could just be talking about about Benny because he likes the kid. I know that Hoodie has talked highly of a player in order to help them get picked up in free agency. Now I’m not sure what will happen, but I do agree that BJGE should have an edge due to his young age.

by Richard Hill on Aug 9, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions  

He's also the only one with a contract beyond this year

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought he had a solid contract until 2011?

I just remember a Reiss piece about the only RB who was signed beyond 2010 being BJGE. I could be wrong, though.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah

Either I misread Reiss, or Reiss wasn’t quite right himself. No biggie.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

He could have been wrong...

…or could have been saying that the Patriots had control of his contract due to his being an RFA? Either way, the Patriots DO have semi-control over whether or not they bring him back.

by Richard Hill on Aug 9, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see a massive bidding war for his services brewing...

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm beginnning to wonder whether Torry Holt has enough

He doesn’t add special teams values, and he hasn’t exactly shined thus far. As Reiss says, it’s different when the CBs start playing harder and the WRs have to fight off jams, but if Tate and/or Price show some ability there, too, Holt might be cut before Aiken.

It also might depend on whether Belichick thinks it’s more important to have that leadership on the Offensive or Special Teams side of things.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 5:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I like the Dane Fletcher promotion

He seems to get a fair bit of good press. He’s still exceedingly raw, but that’s to be expected of a college-DE-to-3-4-ILB conversion job. The fact he’s got the size and speed to cover OLB and rush-DE bump up his value; if he’s a special teamer who can take Alexander’s role, I’d almost consider him a lock, if only because of sheer versatility.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 5:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Rather cut Morrs than Taylor

but other than that…..have to agree with your roster prediction

Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life

by NinjaZX6R on Aug 9, 2010 6:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Damione Lewis might make it as a 40-front inside pass-rusher

But if it’s a Warren-or-Lewis decision, I’d opt for Gerard Warren. It might well end up being a Brace-or-old-guy choice, too, especially if he doesn’t pass that fitness test quickly.

I can’t really fault the choice, it’s just an either/or decision on those three players.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 6:38 PM EDT reply actions  

i think ...

young players on roster bubble i keep eye on are …

Arrington … he looks a lock so far
Welch … good upside potential … i hope they speed his development
Deaderick … is kade weston really better … if ty warren gone, they could both make it
Fletcher … good upside potential i think

don’t know enough about kade weston …. there is very little on him

months ago, it was daunting to look at all the talent the patriots would have to cut

but with all the injuries, they should be able to keep everyone worth keeping

Fletcher is interesting … i can’t believe he has potential to play ILB, OLB and DE … probably OLB but i can’t believe DE with his low weight

the patriots are crowded with talent at ILB … why use Fletcher there if he can play OLB

by prioris on Aug 9, 2010 7:41 PM EDT reply actions  

scraping the bottom of the bucket ...

ryan wendell seems like someone you would bring in if your desperate

if it gets to him, maybe mankins will really have leverage

by prioris on Aug 9, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions  

a bit harsh

I’m willing to give Wendell a chance.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Aug 9, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am too...

…but that’s still scraping the barrel. It’s a big drop from a top 5 guard to a player who was potentially on the roster bubble.

by Richard Hill on Aug 9, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

can't find anything or anyone suggesting ....

wendell has any upside except plug a dam with his finger

his size seems somewhat too small

i’d rather see them push welch development

to play guard this year and OT next

Welch seems like one of those high football IQ players

who could learn a position faster than most players

by prioris on Aug 9, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not bad, but here are a few thoughts...

Three tackles, Bussey on the PS, why pretend a G is a T, if he can play both then he is sub for both. BB likes experience so Ghiaciuc rather than Wendell. Also if Larsen can play C or G then Ohrnburger is likely PS as well.

BB has little time for free loaders, so I think Brace is as good as gone.

This one I am sure of, Lewis doesn’t get cut. The last game BB saw was his team being run all over, and so he brought in Warren and Lewis to make sure it doesn’t happen again. None of the other guys are starters, so I think it’s a lock Warren and Lewis stay. BB likes size and experience.

I think you are right about fletcher, lets hope it pans out.

The other one I see sticking is Wheatley…Wilhite tries, he just has no upside….Why not take a gamble with your 4th CB esp if Arrington is serviceable in a pinch. Don’t forget, if Butler or McCourty turn all Revis / Samuel on us, then would you rather have a potential starting CB on your roster (Wheatley) or a guy who you know should never be a starter (Wilhite)???

by buachz on Aug 9, 2010 9:20 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah ...

agree … better to take chance on cb who has upside especially 4th or 5th cb than one that doesn’t

ty warren could be out for season according to rumors ,,, what do we do if he is

maybe both deaderick and weston will need to be brought up

i’d sense more comfort with ghiaciuc or someone who started more as #4 guard

i see bussey making the roster … he seems like one of the better OL players at either G or T

so give him a chance

ohrnberger seems too small to play line except fringe player

by prioris on Aug 9, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

ty warren could be out for season according to rumors ,,, what do we do if he is

Probably keep both G. Warren and D. Lewis, and then use Wilfork to shore up whatever spot is most necessary instead of keeping him solely at NT. Mike Wright gets more reps in the 3-4 than as a sub-package guy.

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.

by Comedic.Sans on Aug 9, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

also remember that ....

ty warren has been getting injured more and more in recent years

by prioris on Aug 9, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would absolutely keep five OL tackles.

Light is damaged goods. Welch has size, youth, and a fantastic OL coach to bring him along. I hope they keep all five tackles. The practice squad will be picked clean by other teams. Those spots are not safe for Welch, Deaderick, or others.

by couchpotato on Aug 10, 2010 7:30 AM EDT reply actions  

i know that

cleveland wanted to sign darryl richards to their roster but the patriots offered him 310K to stay and he did.

like you, i would be concerned if welch was left on practice squad but i would have to figure that the patriots understand this and have strategies to protect him if another team made an offer

i would think with 2 missing OL people, there would be room

i don’t think either of us truly understands the practice squad implications fully but like you

i hope he is not snatched by another team by some mistake

by prioris on Aug 10, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would be a free fall...

..by Fred Taylor, considering he is the first on the depth chart currently.

by frogfromthemud on Aug 10, 2010 6:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I also think...

..at CB Wheatley leapfrogged Wilhite, and given Arrington’s special team work, Wilhite is near the axe.

by frogfromthemud on Aug 10, 2010 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

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