The Truth About The Patriots Pass Rush
by MikeDussault on Sep 1, 2010 7:16 PM EDT
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintIf you're a Patriots fan you're probably sick of hearing about their biggest problem being their inability to generate pressure on the quarterback. Many seem to think that all the Patriots need to do is add a Demarcus Ware-type and they'll be back amongst the elite defenses in the NFL.
After some significant research I've found that is actually the opposite of the truth. My findings after the jump...
How many times in the dynastic 00's did a Patriot register more sacks than Tully Banta-Cain had in 2009 (10)? The answer is just once, and that was Mike Vrabel with 12.5 in 2007. Given that teams were often throwing a lot more against the Pats in 2007, trying to dig themselves out of a hole, it's safe to say that Vrabel's total could be called an outlier.
In fact, the Patriots dynasty defenses commonly had sack leaders around 7.5 to 9.5. Here are the total sacks for each Patriots team in past decade, with the leader and his total:
- 2001 - 41 (Super Bowl Champs) Hamilton - 7
- 2002 - 34 (missed playoffs due to tie breaker) Seymour/McGinest - 5.5
- 2003 - 41 (Super Bowl Champs) Vrabel - 9.5
- 2004 - 45 (Super Bowl Champs) McGinest - 9.5
- 2005 - 33 (Lost AFCDG) Colvin - 7.5
- 2006 - 44 (Lost AFCCG) Warren - 7.5
- 2007 - 47 (Lost Super Bowl) Vrabel - 12.5
- 2008 - 31 (Missed playoffs due to tie breaker) Seymour - 8
- 2009 - 31 (Lost AFCWCG) Banta-Cain - 10
In 2004 the top three of the individual sack totals looked like this: 9.5, 5.5, 5. In 2009 the top three looked like this: 10, 5, 5. Notice they're exactly the same total.
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Interesting piece!
I enjoy refreshing research. You get recced!
Richard did an article a while back
And found the best indicator of success was the number of guys who got 3+ sacks – higher the number of pass-rushers (as opposed to one pass-rusher getting huge numbers) the further the Pats progressed.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Sep 1, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It's the hallmark of a Belichick defense
where its based on misdirection and confusion. I almost think he would prefer his LBs to have moderate numbers of sacks and a couple interceptions each, and the same from his DBs…as this would be one indicator that the defense was doing its job properly. These more recent numbers can actually be looked at as somewhat impressive when you consider before the 2005 season, the contact DBs could have with receivers was greater, and so the pass rush had more time to get there. Roughly the same number of sacks from the top 3 players where the receivers are getting open much quicker is interesting.
The other interesting thing...
Zero picks from linebackers since before Bruschi retired…
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
I think thats part of the reason they wanted to get more speed on defense...
the ball is coming out quicker from the quarterbacks so they need their linebackers to be athletic. Despite Spikes’ 40 time, he was somewhat of a ball hawk in college for a LB and the reports on Cunningham before his injury were that he looked very fluid dropping into zones
It's not merely athleticism, else Bruschi wouldn't have had so many interceptions
It’s that nose-for-the-ball instinct, and while Mayo’s a tackling machine, he hasn’t really shown he’s a ball-hawk. Spikes, however, has shown both in college and in his practice work that while he’s slow, he’s able to read plays correctly and get into passing lanes, much like Bruschi. I like his chances of being a playmaker, especially when paired with the tackle-machine Mayo cleaning up the rest.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
My hope is that We can get more picks., somehow
We need to have a draft with solid defensive players+ one great pass rusher. The O-Line is where i think we will be okay BB can find guys for that (see Dan Connoly) But the defense should be addressed with the 1st 3 picks we have,and we need a RB badly I’d love if the team could find a real work horse with a 4th rounder.
one doesn’t know who will be available when their turn comes so one has to be flexible
it depends how well welsh develops also
That’s why I’m rooting for the Raiders to go 0-16, then all options are on the table. 3 solid 3-4 DE prospects this year. High first rounders.
I’d agree, a 3-4 DE would be their first choice.
It is interesting that some had Deaderick as second best 3-4 DE and he fell to 7th
so it may not go like we would imagine
He might've been second-best 3-4 DE in college
but that’s more an indication of how few college teams run the 3-4.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
But Deaderick looks like he has room to grow, he is a very bright kid. hope he is one of those late round gems. I also think BB will draft a QB in 2011.
I like what I see in Deaderick too.
Raw, but he plays like he has a head on his shoulders.
Cameron Heyward
looks like Seymour…plays like one too
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Getting picks AND sacks is about synergy
Better coverage results in more time to get to the QB.
Better pressure results in the QB forcing the ball out into coverage.
Bellichek defenses have never been all about either stat. The better Pats teams have always done ‘OK’ at both interceptions and sacks, but neither have been the bellweather for why they’ve been good.
BB’s defenses are always built first around the middle of the field to prevent running up the middle. Second, they design coverage to prevent big plays down field and bring pressure from the edges of the front 7. That’s been the basic formula and it is sound – it tends to give up yardage but over the years the Pats are always among the leaders in fewest points surrendered.
Put Wes Welker in the secondary ala Troy Brown.
My hatred of Michigan knows no bounds. Even more so after this travesty.
September 1st, 2010. A day that shall live in infamy.
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 2, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I am glad you took the time to do this research
I have usually avoided major criticism of their pass rush because it is somewhat vague when talking about it and putting all the onus on the OLB does not make sense.
When the secondary gets better, the LB and DL will get better and vice versa.
I always thought bringing in McCourty would improve pass rush.
I think Burgess needed year to learn patriots system. like ron brace, this is the year he will prove whether he was worth the acquisition.
Push comes to shove, drafting a play making DE next year would improve it.
I think the OLB position is more about finding a skilled 3 down player more than anything.
Maybe Cunningham can do that
As far as sack vs pressure, pressure is what you measure when plating against elite QB
Ot is why sacking the Bills QB is far easier than Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers
Hard to really quantify all this...
But this definitely tells some of the story. Would love to see what the pressure stats add to the analysis but ProFootballFocus has gone subscription (boo!) and I couldn’t locate the numbers anywhere else. Clearly the Pats system is a team based pressure system, not one that has a certified single guy whose job it is to get the QB (Suggs, Harrison, Pace, Meriman in other 3-4s). All of this make me think if you can get 4 sacks out of Cunningham it would be a really solid year from him.
As I’ve said all along the 2011 draft will be the last truly vital piece in reconstructing this defense back to elite status.
Mike, this is terrific
I think when the media, and most people including myself, talk about ‘the pass rush’ it’s based on perception and watching a particular game where the opposing QB seems to have all day to throw. Thanks for bringing some numbers to the conversation.
Keep the faith!
i think reiss analysis made observation that a QB with a quick release can make a lot of difference in perception.
One more thing to note...
In the past 9 years the Pats have been lead in sacks by an OLB 5 times and a DL 4 times.
Good stuff
The question I’m left with is: what is the correlation between team sack totals and winning?
Last year, nine teams reached the 40 sack plateau, but I wouldn’t peg all of them to be championship caliber – the 49ers, Dolphins, Redskins, Steelers and Browns failed to qualify for the playoffs while bringing down opposing QBs at least 40 times.
It looks like teams on the lowest end of the list clearly are not the good ones (Pats tied for 23rd, lowest among playoff qualifiers, but only one sack behind the Jets), but I’m curious on the larger picture what the correlation is. Anybody know how to do a little regression analysis?
I vaguely remember Football Outsiders doing this
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Here is an interesting look at it:
I looked for team seasons with the most games with > 2 sacks (Ex. the 2007 Patriots had 13 games with 2+ sacks). One would think that teams that can consistently generate 2 or more sacks in each game are going to win, right? The chart includes the W-L record in the games that they got those 2+ sacks.
Here is the link.
It was interesting to see how many teams have posted 2+ sacks in 13 or more games and yet played .500 or worse in those same games!
Basically, to me, this suggests that the correlation, if any, between sacks and winning may be rather loose.
Ignoring the psychological effects and the potential for creating bad passes which occasionally lead to turnovers, isn’t a sack technically not much different in game value from a tackle for loss?
Sacks can be as much about the opposition QB's confidence
If he’s under pressure, he’ll want to get rid of it as fast as possible. If his WRs are all over the CBs and Safeties, he’ll want to stick in the pocket a little longer than he should because he’s in that “just one more second, it’ll be an 80 yard TD!” frame of mind.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Sep 2, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Case in point being Aaron Rodgers.
He’d get sacked twice in a row and then throw an 80 yard TD strike. Feel free to dance your little sack dance, but it means squat if the guy nails you on third down.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Clearly, the inside rush is the key to QB pressure.
I would like to see Wilfork, Pryor, Brace, Lewis, and Warren taking turns attacking the middle with an all out push for the QB. Tha prevents the QB from stepping up into the pocket. It draws guard assistance since most centers are under sized and cannot hold off a one man attack from these beasts.
Collapsing the center and driving him backwards is THE best way to assist the DB’s. The outside rush should be more contain minded on the side where the back is positioned.
The PATS have a bruising group of DL who can bull rush with the best of them. I hope BB moves toward that approach for this season’s QB pressure.
that would
be a big change from his defensive philosophy in the past, d-line in a two gap system isn’t much geared to get sacks. They’re there to occupy o-line men to allow lbs to only have to beat one man. But i agree the strength of this defense would be a 4-3 base. So we’ll see hopefully some creative new stuff!
Spokane WA only 2,266 miles from Foxboro MA
They've always had the ability to run a 4-3
Albeit a 2-gap 4-3 (only the Jags have used that recently). They’ll do it when the matchups dictate it as being the best option, as they always do. It just might be the best option more often, given the thin OLB stock.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
given our LBs though
I don’t think they exactly fit the 4-3 LBs.
Mayo, imo, won’t work on the outside. I see him getting pushed around a lot. Spikes is suited on the inside only. I can’t exactly see spikes on the outside either. We need someone in the middle who can cover the gaps, and spikes seems to be the toughest of the group. I dont even know who would play the other side either…
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
I'm also a Raider Fan dammit!!! RAIDER NATION!!!!
McKenzie looks like a 4-3 OLB, Guyton a 4-3 MLB...
They can run several looks to compensate.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Sep 1, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yep
my 4-3 lbs would be Guyton weakside- Mayo mlb- and McKenzie strongside
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
I might even switch Mayo to OLB and Guyton MLB
Guyton’s got that extra bit of pace that means he can cover deeper into the secondary as a Urlacher-type Cover-2/Tampa-2 MLB that covers a deep Safety-zone.
Mayo’s got pace enough, but Guyton’s got more 4.47 40s don’t come with the rain.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Sep 2, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
if we are playing cover 2
def.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
I actually wouldn't mind Cover-2 with this roster
Guyton isn’t good in run-stuffing, but he’s fine in pass-coverage and has blistering pace – he’s a perfect Cover-2 MLB. Mayo’s good at both run-stopping and pass-coverage, and very quick, meaning he’s a good Cover-2 Will LB. Sam LB would be interesting – maybe McKenzie, as he’s a bit quicker than Spikes. And that’s only if you didn’t convert McGowan into an LB for package purposes.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
4-3, cover 2? Is Tony Dungy here?
Guys BB does not, will not change his defensive philosophy this drastically on a consistent bases after 20+ years running a 3-4 base. There will be different sub packages and looks with a 4 man line and 3 LBs but the pats would never be considered, or more importantly draft for a 4-3 base.
I wasn't meaning actually running a Cover-2 D
I was more thinking of Cover-2-like looks and player responsibilities. And Belichick has run similar things before – just the other day, Asante Samuel was complaining that Pats fans gave Ty Law props for being a shutdown man-cover CB, but that Samuel was ‘merely’ getting his picks because he was in CB coverage zones that benefit interceptions.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Well I know Spikes wasnt on the list but he just got sacked by Reebok!
Man I hope his mistake doesn’t cost him any games or else we could be in trouble.
I bleed gatorade and poop pigskins
by Yardpenalty.com on Sep 1, 2010 11:21 PM EDT reply actions
In the Pats D, pressure and pass rush is predicated by LB strength
The best years of the Pats D, or the Giants D when BB was there was based nearly 100% on the strength of the linebacking core.
Similarly this year’s LB core is young, but more skilled then it has been in 3-4 years. Right now the skill is centered in the middle of the D, but depending on Cunningham, Burgess, Ninkovich, etc the edges could improve as well.
Either way if I noticed anything in the first 2 preseason games it was that iLB blitzing was back in NE.
Either way if I noticed anything in the first 2 preseason games it was that iLB blitzing was back in NE.
I noticed that, too. The other thing I noticed was how often Spikes and McKenzie were mentioned as having stuffed run plays by blitzing the A-gap in goal-line and obvious run downs in team practices.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
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