Monday Night's Game Against the Dolphins is a "Must-Win"
by Greg Knopping on Sep 30, 2010 6:04 PM EDT
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When talking football and really any sport, the term "must win" is often used a little bit too loosely. After all, in professional sports, isn't nearly every game a must-win? However, every now and then comes a game that can really define a team's season, and either send the team in a positive or negative direction.
This week, the Patriots will travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins on Monday night in their 3rd divisional game in three weeks. Here are just a few reasons why I think this game can be labeled in the "must-win" category.
- It's a divisional game, as simple as that. Following their 38-30 win over the Bills, the Patriots improved to 1-1 in the division. However, the rival Jets had an impressive victory over the Dolphins and have improved to 2-0 in the division. This week, they will play the Buffalo Bills, and should improve to 3-0 in the division. The Dolphins on the other hand, have an identical divisional record to the Patriots. A loss by the Patriots would likely put them in a two game divisional-hole to the Jets, and would also leave them a game behind the Dolphins. While those numbers obviously aren't insurmountable, it would be nice if the Patriots wouldn't put themselves in that type of hole early on.
- Road games haunted the Patriots all year long in 2009, with the team's only real road win coming against an out-of-contention Buffalo Bills team late last season. Things didn't start well this year either, with the team dropping to the Jets 28-14 in their only road game this year. A win would help erase the perception that the Patriots can't win on the road, and would certainly give the young guys some confidence.
Two more reasons why Monday's game is a "must-win" for the Patriots after the jump!
- Speaking of confidence, this week will be a real confidence test for the young defense of the Patriots. The Patriots were shredded by two of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in back-to-back weeks. This week, they'll be going up against an up-and-coming passing attack led by quarterback Chad Henne of the Dolphins. Henne has some nice targets to throw too as well, including Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano, and the prolific Brandon Marshall. Bottom-line: if the Patriots' defense, especially the secondary, can show some improvement against the Dolphins, it will give the group a much needed confidence boost.
- The Patriots will also be heading into the bye week. If they can win on Monday, things will look a lot better and the team can have a lot more momentum going into the bye. Aside from a solid first half against the Bengals, the Patriots defense hasn't looked sharp since. While the offense had success against the Bills, it was the Bills and that group stalled against the second half against the Jets. A solid game in all four phases (offense, defense, special teams, coaching) against a team as solid as the Dolphins could go a long way for the team heading into the bye, especially with teams like the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings on the schedule immediately following the bye.
Overall, I just get the feeling that this game is one that can tell you a lot about the Patriots, whether it be good or bad. Tuesday morning, I think we'll know what the 2010 Patriots are capable of bringing to the table.
One final thing to consider: if the Patriots win Monday night, they will improve to 3-1. Essentially, this means that the team couldn't drop below .500 until week eight against the Vikings. A loss would mean that the team is just .500, and could drop below that mark as early as their fourth game, which is against a physical Baltimore Ravens club.
So, what do you think? Will week four's game against the Miami Dolphins go down as a must-win for the Patriots?
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Yes.
It’s a must win. If the Patriots don’t win this, they’ll be two games back of first place and giving the Dolphins a game advantage won’t help out since the Dolphins have an easier schedule. There’s no way the AFC East sends two wild card teams, since the AFC North will be sending one (Steelers/Ravens/Bengals are all potential wild card teams). The Pats need to win to have a shot at winning the division. If they don’t win, the focus shifts to wild card. The Jets get Santonio Holmes back after this week and Revis should return as well. I don’t see the Pats making up two games on them, barring a massive implosion, because the Jets already have a win against the Patriots and Dolphins (ie: tiebreaker advantage).
I disagree. It's a big divisional game yes but not a must win.
They lost @New York and @Miami last year and still won 10 games and won the division.
yeah but last year @ this point, we were no.2 in the div.
the jets semi meltdown saved us…dont expect that to happen again
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Hang on sloopy, sloopy hang on.. O H I O
I suppose I should comment
Whenever I disagree with a post, I feel like I owe a rationale for the position So here goes….
I voted NO…… But it’s not as if it’s a very strong NO.
I agree that the game carries a hightened sense of importance for all the same reasons Greg listed…. But I just can’t myself to consider it as an urgent win. It’s early in the season and they’re playing away. I think the urgency comes in seeing a vast improvement in the play of the defense…. particularly this “swiss cheese secondary”.
LET ME SAY IT THIS WAY……
If the Pats WIN…. but do so 42 – 35, giving up 370 yds passing and 4 TDs…. I’ll end up turning off my TV every bit a frustrated as tho they had lost. On the other hand, if they LOSE….. but do so giving up 185 yds 1 TD and two INTs, I could at least walk away from that loss with a little bit of promise for the rest of the year from a defensive standpoint.
Chad Henne is one of those “middle of the road” QBs that can morph from a dolphin into a shark when he smells blood in the water. While guys like Rivers and Rodgers will consistently throw for 275 to 325, Henne can throw for 180 one week and light it up for 400 the next. I think most of it comes down to confidence. I fear there’s a lot of open wounds in the Pats secondary right now….. If they start bleeding, the good guys are screwed.
I'm voting yes because ya never know
… and true to BB, every game is a ‘must win.’
Selfishly, it’s because I don’t want to endure three (or more) freaking weeks of links to articles lamenting the fact that the Patriots can’t win on the road, and then even more articles analyzing and opining that fact to death.
Keep the faith!
By the title of your article
I have to agree that it is a must win… for the Dolphins.
Question is how are we going to do it.
Just don’t exploit our week special teams
"It is possible that mankind is on the threshold of a golden age; but, if so, it will be necessary first to slay the dragon that guards the door, and this dragon is religion"
Bertrand Russell
INSANE
The only thing that must happen is that the defense improve and grow up before the playoffs.
It’s week freakin’ 4. The qualification on the “must win” headline in the first sentence merely reinforces the sheer hyperbole of the premise. “Must win” is used too loosely, like right now.
If the Pats lose this game and finish 10-6 or 11-5, this article will look very silly on January 1st.
But it probably got people to click on it, and readers are good for blogs, so…
Pats got 11-5 in 2008 and didn't qualify for playoffs because of the tie-breakers
This is a tie-breaker game, being a divisional (and conference) matchup. That’s why it’s that little bit more important.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
by Comedic.Sans on Sep 30, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You bring up a very good point, but what happened in 08 is like ridiculously rare! If somebody told me right this second that our record would be 11-5 but 4 out of the 5 losses were divisional….. I’D STILL TAKE IT!
I wrote a much more respectful, much milder version of what this dude wrote in my above comment. It’s a shame he doesn’t have the capacity to deliver his thoughts in a way that doesn’t rile everybody up.
by Bills friend on Sep 30, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
If I'm insane, then I guess 83% of the readers are insane then
And an FYI: If the defense doesn’t “grow up” soon, there might not be a playoffs for this team. The Patriots have some very tough and physical teams on their schedule, meaning the 30+ point games aren’t as likely.
And you can’t argue against the fact that starting 1-2 in the division and giving yourself a 2 game hole in both the actual standings and the division standings isn’t hard to overcome. Lets not forget that the Patriots started 6-2 last year as well.
Of course, the season won’t be over if the Patriots fall to 2-2. We all know that. But when it comes to games this early in the season, this is as close to a “must-win” as you’re going to get.
by Greg Knopping on Sep 30, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
The Colts certainly aren't one of them. We usually score on one another at will. And
Green Bay though they are good, aren’t frightening me anymore. They aren’t as strong as once thought. Same goes for Ravens. My two Superbowl picks. And don’t look now, but we have a stronger running game as it stands right now that the Phins do. We lead them in about every category in rushing. Passing is self explanatory. As tough as this game could be, the Phins know that if they really wanna win this one, they will have no choice but to slow down the Pats’ (league best..30.0 ppg) offense. As bad as our defense has been, we can still chop up this Dolphins defense. People point to the Phins and say, “wow they are defensively stout”. Really?? They shut down the Bills (OMG!!….and spare me the Bills looked good against us crap) then the Vikes, who has been offensively anemic so far. The Jets put up over 30 on them. So we can surely score more if need be.
by PatNation85 on Sep 30, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I know games differ each week. Thus just because we gave up 30 to the Bills, doesn't
automatically mean we will give up more to a team that isn’t that far off offensively from the wayward Bills. SO please let’s all in PatNation just calm down. The Phins will need Special Teams to play big, to help in their scoring. Last time i checked, they don’t have McCluster nor Spiller nor Hester.
by PatNation85 on Sep 30, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, it might not be a "must win"
In the standings (i.e. 2-2 isn’t that bad), but it could very well be a “must win” psychologically (establishing ourselves as contenders or pretenders)
So therefore...
… you admit it’s close to a “must-win”. Your headline said “must-win”. I only bring it up because I get so tired of the hyperbole in the headlines around the internet. A “must-win” means you have to have the game or else you go home. Everything else is just an important game. And I’m not even sure at 2-1, that this will be one of the 5 most important games the Pats will play all year.
Tone it down dude
If you want to engage in rational respectful debate, you’ll find it doesn’t take a $hitload of additional effort to write the same way you’d actually speak to one of us if we were standing in the same room together for the first time. If you had just shaken Greg’s hand and introduced yourself, I hardly doubt you’d call his opinion “insane” to his face.
My post above is a near mirror of what you tried to say but it’s toned down about 95%. Guess what? I pissed ZERO people off in sharing my thoughts.
I’ve yet to engage you in debate so I’ll keep an open mind, but if your intention is to maintain this, I’m happy to let you just carry on and hope everybody ignores you.
by Bills friend on Sep 30, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the response… I wrote that (in part) to see if you’d give me “the bird” with a response….. or….. if you’d take it as constructively. You seemed to have chose B and as result, I can say I look forward to chatting and even debating with you sometime in the future….
My name is John…. Nice to meet you.
In hindsight
One or possibly two games can indeed be pinpointed as turning points or as the bellwether of a season. It’s not insane to figure that this one may be it. I could be wrong, but it’s not an insane guess.
Keep the faith!
I agree - this is much more of a must win for Miami then New England
If Miami loses this game, not only are they 2 games out, they’ve lost both their home games against their primary division opponents. That’s an extremely tough hill to climb.
Pats lose this game, they still play NYJ and MIA at home so at the very least they can look to split division series, which I would argue is a likely outcome given the talent in the division. 4-2 wins the AFC East this year I think, via a tie breaker.
It’s far too early to speculate on tie break scenario’s now, so like Blutrane, I want to see the defense improving in this game. It’s hard to expect them to shut down this offense completely, but there are plenty of areas of improvement that can be made.
Must Win
I too think it is more of a must-win for my Dolphins rather than the Pats. It wouldn’t be so much the 2 divisional losses, it would be that they were both @ home and we still have to go to NE and NY in the cold. That is huge. We also have a young team that could lose a lot of confidence losing 2 in a row heading into the bye with a 7 game stretch looming against opponents who all have winning records. The Pats, although they have a lot of young guys (porn stars and all!), still have the likes of Brady, Welker, Moss, etc. who won’t lose confidence just because they are 2-2. Neither will their coach. Over the last decade, the Pats have gotten better when the pressure was on, while the Dolphins and Jets have folded.
That being said, I am optimistic yet nervous (obviously) about the game. Our defense didn’t look that great against Sanchez last week, and he’s no Brady. I’m terrified of your tight ends, not to mention two guys named Welker and Moss. Your defense cheers me up. Your special teams isn’t that great but ours sucks so that’s a wash. I know the Pats historically struggle in Miami especially in September, but you’ll have a bit of a reprieve on Monday since it’s a night game (I wish we were playing you bastards at 1 pm Sunday!). The keys to this game are “who is going to get that big turnover in the passing game?” OR “can Miami run the ball effectively enough to keep Brady’s offense off the field enough to throw off their rhythm?” (which I actually don’t understand, because when you’re in a rhythm and you score, you have to sit out for awhile anyway before you get back in there). I really can’t call this one, but being the homer I am I’m going to say 31-30 Dolphins (shows you how confident I am). Good luck!
Exactly how is "isn't that great" and "ours sucks" a wash?
2 out of 3 games our special teams have absolutely been great, and then there’s the Buffalo game. They are definitely above average. Your offense doesn’t come close to ours, not even the same area code nevermind ballpark. We have a VERY solid advantage in 2 of the 3 phases of the game. The problem is our defense. If we give you the D that played against Cinci first half, you guys are screwed. If we give you the(more likely option) soft D then you have a very real chance. Phins always play us tough in Miami anyways. I think the Pats take it by a touchdown maybe more, but the score won’t open up til late. Of course I only hit my picks on 6 games last week so who knows?
I exercise strong self control. I never drink anything stronger than gin before breakfast
Stop blitzing Sanchize, drop 7 into coverage, and watch him force something.
We were wrong about him handling blitzes/pressure… he can do it.. time to give him extar DBs to worry about
by quadruple option on Oct 1, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
If you lose two division games this early.....
…….you’re still digging a hole. Yes it becomes a must win for playoffs. As stated the season doesn’t get any easier as it progresses and still the three divisional teams [two that beat you] are waiting for another shot. as said 11-5 and they sit, with the learning curve on this team, 10-6 would be a dream come true. Confidence must be developed and a wee bit ‘o luck in a few games wouldn’t hurt. Have to agree don’t picture a Jets or Dolphins melt down so wildcard dreams and a strong AFC this year is tough.
Plz take a look at the Phins' schedule. They are not a team that can handle such difficulty
at this time. Their offense is average. And their defense isn’t as good as they think. Take a look at what i mean. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/mia;_ylt=Ap1EwCfEC3IkMtLXoMn1A1VDubYF
From this week all the way through the Bears game. They will get their butts kicked.
Don't be so quick
to say the Dolphins are going to get their butts kicked. They are capable of beating any one of those 7 teams. Of course they are not going to win them all, but they aren’t going to get smoked by this schedule.
First of all, the Dolphins don’t get blown out. They are always in the game. And with a team like that, you are bound to win a few tight ones just because you get a break in a close game that turns the tide. If we beat the Pats this week and go to 3-1 we are in good shape. Brutal schedule yes, but we get the Packers at Lambeau right after the bye. Probably the best possible circumstance. We’ll have the Steelers at home (again the possible circumstance), and the Steelers aren’t going to go undefeated. The Bengals and Ravens both have iffy offenses and we match up well with them. Then we get the Titans (not as good as people think) at home and the Bears (not nearly as good as people think) at home on a short week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fins came out of this 7 game stretch winning 4 or 5 of them.
You know, the Pats don’t have a cakewalk schedule, either.
i disagree with how optimistic u r about your squad.
I guess thats natural. But the Phins are only believed to be a “contender” by folks in Miami (Where i live) whom are so hungry to be relevant again. Reminds of the Jets fans who r so inundated with being recognized. Too bad they had to do it with a slob job of a coach. They are still a 9-7 team. And the Phins aren’t that far off of that record either. Just my thoughts. We’ll watch the game, and i’m sure we will revisit this. I know our defense is lousy, but we still have the playmakers to score more on you guys than you guys on us. Especially if we run fairly well, (we lead you guys in that category btw) and force Henne into a unBradylike error. Good luck.
optimism is good
a few of you are going to be making statements after this game like. The reffing was horrible or we beat ourselves. Truth is Miami is young and getting better. Pats are good but on the decline. Only Pats fans think otherwise. So if you think I am wrong ask people outside our division. People without a bias. You are making comparisons based upon Pats being better on paper but like Ray Lewis said you have not proven yourselves this year until you prove yourselves.
We will see tomorrow night.
again good luck.
"It is possible that mankind is on the threshold of a golden age; but, if so, it will be necessary first to slay the dragon that guards the door, and this dragon is religion"
Bertrand Russell
Um, I think they proved themselves.
Thanks for playing.
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The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Oct 7, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
ouch
you won. nice game!
"It is possible that mankind is on the threshold of a golden age; but, if so, it will be necessary first to slay the dragon that guards the door, and this dragon is religion"
Bertrand Russell
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