Patriots Statistical Analysis: Week 5

FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 9: Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets feels the pressure of Vince Wilfork #75 of the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium on October 9, 2011 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Sorry this one's a bit later than usual going up, been busy this week and only just got the opportunity to put this together.  Anyway...

Nevermind the Monday after, the whole week after a victory over the Jets is just too good.  Perhaps it's shutting Rex Ryan and his yard dog Bart "Can't Wait" Scott up.  Perhaps it's hearing Santonio Holmes going off on his offensive line for the second consecutive week, adding further fuel to the fire that the Jets are spiralling out of control.  Honestly, I'm not sure what it is, but everything is somehow just that bit more enjoyable and the world seems a more wonderful place!

Statistical Breakdown after the jump...

Opponent

3rd down Defensive Efficiency

Number of sacks

Defensive Passer Rating

Opponent Passing YPA

Rate of Defensive 3-and-outs

Defensive Red Zone Efficiency

T.O. Diff

Pass:Run Ratio (Pass Percentage)

@ Miami

14%(2/14)

4

93.6

8.5 (49/416)

38%(5/13)

50% (3/6)

0

69% (48:22)

San Diego

83%(10/12)

2

97.7

9.5 (40/378)

0%(0/10)

50% (2/4)

+4

62% (40:25)

@ Buffalo

36%(4/11)

0

92.6

9.2 (40/369)

42%(5/12)

75% (3/4)

-2

63% (45:26)

@ Oakland

62%(8/13)

0

79.4

8.8 (39/344)

0%(0/9)

40% (2/5)

+2

50% (30:30)

NY Jets

27%(3/11)

2

105.6

6.4 (26/166)

64%(7/11)

100% (2/2)

-1

49% (33:35)

Total

44.3% (27/61)

8

93.78

8.6 (194/1673)

30.9%

57%

+3

59% (196:138)

TARGET

37%

45 (2.8PG)

73.8

6.45

25%

42%

+16 (+1PG)

50%

Analysis

Positives:

Plenty of positives this week for the Patriots, not least of which is the 3rd down defensive efficiency of 27%.  The Patriots defense started the day on fire, particularly on 3rd downs and they gave the offense the opportunity to put this game away early (although the offense didn't hold up its end of the bargain until late on in the game, perhaps why Brady was so peeved).  The defensive success on third down allowed the Patriots to post their highest mark of the season in terms of rate of 3-and-outs - 64% of Jets drives ended in a 3-and-out, and currently in the category, the Patriots are outperforming their target by almost 6%.

Another encouraging sign for me was the huge progress made with the opponent passing yards per attempt, holding Sanchez to 6.4 YPA.  So far this year, no opposing passer posted a mark lower than 8.5 YPA (a disturbingly high number), but the Patriots played more physical defense in this game, forcing incompletions and limiting chunk yardage plays.

Offensive balance was maintained again this week, again another positive sign that this team can be a truly multi-dimension offense and forces other teams to defend the WHOLE offense.

Negatives:

The primary negative in this game for the Patriots was their defensive red zone performance. After talking up the red zone defense during the week, Belichick won't have been happy with its performance against the Jets.  Twice the Jets had the ball inside the Patriot 20 and twice they scored touchdowns.  Not good for a defense which gives up yardage and hopefully something that will be corrected.

General Thoughts on the game...

  • 1. Not enough play action from our offense in this game. After establishing the run, the Patriots did not take advantage of this to use their play action game, which was successful when called upon. It seemed like the Patriots were either under center running the ball or back in the shotgun for the pass. I know Gronkowski is our biggest play action weapon and was limited in this game from a health standpoint but still!
  • 2. Speaking of Gronkowski, he is an animal when blocking opponents. As a dual tight end, he may only be second to Jason Witten in the NFL right now.
  • 3. I had forgotten how automatic Stephen Gostkowski is at times.
  • 4. Way to make up for a missed tackle Tracy White. Absolutely demolished Joe McKnight on a 4th quarter return.
  • 5. I absolutely love the Wilfork-Mangold matchup, it's something I enjoy every time they face each other and whichever network is covering the game should show way more replays of these two going at it. Perfect technicians at the peak of their respective positions.
  • 6. I know this comment has been echoed by other writers on this site, but how annoying is Santonio Holmes? Your team is getting beat and doesn't really look like winning the game yet you are celebrating a measly 1st down catch!? That's the type of thing you do if you play for someone like the Bengals, not the Jets and certainly not a player who has been a Super Bowl MVP.
  • 7. This week's game against the Cowboys to me will represent a similar challenge to that which the team faced in week 2 against the Chargers. The opponent likes to get the ball downfield, particularly to the tight end, and they play a high pressure defense. I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see a similar outcome, where the Patriot defense finishes with some horrible stats but the defense steps up with some crucial turnovers. That's key in this game - turnovers wins in my opinion.
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