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Mel Kiper Connects Patriots to Jake Locker

I'm just going to throw this out there: This is silly talk. Reports of Washington QB Jake Locker spending two days with the Patriots have hit the news stands, so naturally the draft folks are jumping at the opportunity to say, "maybe!" just in case it happens. I mean, the Patriots wouldn't spend two days with a player that they weren't even a little interested in drafting, right?

Well, we don't have to go far in the past to find a scenario similar to this very occasion. Remember Tim Tebow from last year? Well, the Patriots brought him in for a two day session as well. If I can recall correctly, the Patriots drafted him at the end of the first round manipulated the draft board and caused the Broncos to trade up (and down, and up, and down) into the first round to snag Tebow. Of course, the Patriots had plenty of opportunities to take Tebow in the first round, but they decided against taking him. This year will be the same story with Locker.

Locker is a prospect who is on the first round bubble, which means that a team may be willing to trade up to the end of the first round to #28 to take him- or they may want to trade up to #33 to take him at the start of the second round. Or maybe a team loves Locker enough to trade up to #17 to take him. No matter the scenario, the Patriots are in prime position to deal with a team interested in moving into the first round to take Locker.

Of course, the fact that the Patriots have brought in Locker has sparked the draftniks to say, "[Tom Brady's] window is going to close at some point."

Yeah. Same old story.

Let's see what's really happening after the jump!

Star-divide

The Patriots are doing something called "due diligence," which basically means bringing in not only players that interest the Patriots, but also players that other teams may be interested in drafting around the Patriots' draft picks. When a team trades up and down in the draft as frequently as the Patriots, they need to know the value of the players associated with those draft picks. Since Locker is regarded as a late first/early second round draft pick, it makes perfect sense that the Patriots, owners of the #28 and #33 draft picks, would bring in Locker to take a closer look.

It's not that the Patriots want to see if Locker will be a fit with the Patriots, but it's to see what other teams are seeing when they bring in Locker. If Locker is viewed as a legitimate late first draft pick (and you can be certain that the Patriots will find out what teams are interested in taking Locker), then the value of the 28th and 33rd overall picks increase because they're two spots where a team could trade to take Locker. If Locker does poorly during the Patriots' draft visit, then he probably did poorly during his visits to other teams, and that means he'll drop in value.

The Patriots have expressed interest in moving the #28 pick and everyone knows that #33 will be sold to the highest bidder. The visit with Locker does not mean that Tom Brady's window is closing any more quickly than anticipated- I'm pretty sure he's coming off one of the best seasons of his career- but it means that the Patriots are just doing their homework.

Of course, it's just easier to say that the Patriots are interested in Locker and that they'll take him to be the quarterback of the future.

Or not.

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Brilliant move...

Of course I’m not quite sure if teams will bite at the notion that the Patriots are actually gonna take Locker..

Contributor To Over The Monster, SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site.

by Jared Stegall on Apr 14, 2011 10:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey that crazy guy in oakland will believe anything he is told.

“our next three first round picks for locker at 28? sounds like a bargain to me!”

by Joel Korson on Apr 14, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not good enough

Make them throw in this year’s second too. And if we strap a rocket to Locker’s back and tell them he’s the fastest QB in draft history, we should demand five first round picks.

by RSNexile on Apr 15, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why don't these draft "gurus" just admit they have no idea what Belichick will do?

Everyone already knows it, they’re only fooling themselves.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Why don't these draft "gurus" just admit they have no idea what Belichick will do?

Because they have to fill in something on the list.

I suppose that they could put “and skipping the Patriots pick at 17, the xxxxxx pick…”.

by pablum257 on Apr 15, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

"And at 17,

The pats will take Cam Jordan. Or Gabe Carimi. However they could draft Aldon Smith, or Ryan Kerrigan, or Julio Jones. We don’t actually know. But he’ll be a Pro Bowler in 3 years."

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Even if he doesn't deserve the Pro Bowl nod..

I’m looking at you Merriweather

If knowledge is power and power corrupts...

by satsunada on Apr 15, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Teams don't have to trade up to 28 for a QB.

Bears, Jets, Steelers and Packers don’t need a QB, so you’re paying too much to jump up to 28.

Unless the 33rd is worth more than the 28th, but I don’t see that being the case.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:14 AM EDT reply actions  

Smart teams early in the 2nd round won’t overpay to jump 4 teams they don’t have to. Someone like Minnesota only has to jump up to 33 to beat the Bills to a QB, not 28.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of course, there are other prospects.

Maybe one of the Tackles is still there, so the Seahawks jump in for Sherrod before Pittsburgh get him. Or other examples.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Guess I forgot about the competition aspect.

A team might have to jump in at 28 because they HAVE to clear Buffalo (or something).
I can see GB sliding back if there’s no-one there. Pittsburgh can’t risk missing out on a tackle or cornerback, so I don’t see them bugging out. Bears need someone to play O-line, so they can’t afford to move back, and the Jets could do with getting their 2nd round pick back. So 2 spots after 28 but before 33.

Plus anyone that trades with Bill overpays.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pats have a decent backup QB

I think Hoyer looked solid to me when he played, solid enough to remain backup for the next few years, or until someone the Pats absolutely fall in love with comes along in two or three years. Just saying

by FloridaPatsFan on Apr 15, 2011 12:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Locker again

Hoyer’s contract ends in 2011. A decision has to be made by the Pats if he is a longer term answer and Hoyer has to decide if he wants to remain a backup. Locker was rightfully viewed as a#1 overall pick after freshman success and remains compared to Mark Sanchez. His skill set does not fit into the Pats present offense and fits much less so than several QB’s in this draft who will be picked much later [McElroy, Devlin,Stanzi] as well as Kaepernick, Dalton who will go higher. Anybody know a QB who can replace Brady? Locker rolls out well, throws accurately on the run in medium range, is very strong, very competitive; his weaknesses are well known. In Minn. San Fr. teams with running games he is a good prospect. his comparisons with Tebow are valid in their running ability and questionable untraditional pocket skills.

by WRMaurer on Apr 15, 2011 6:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Comparisons to Mark Sanchez would lower a QB's ranking, no?

Locker was horrendous in 2010, after choosing to forsake going #1 (or being the 2nd QB off the board behind Bradford). Probably cost himself $20 million. And I would agree he doesn’t fit in NE. Poor accuracy, better on the run… there are more Patriots-style QBs in the later rounds – the smarter, more accurate guys, who might have some arm strength issues. McElroy, for example. He probably tops out as a good backup, but he’s a far better fit than Locker.
More likely this is scouting someone so you know how to beat them, rather than scouting them with the idea of drafting them.
As for future Pats QBs, the young guy from Georgia (who was the target of several late hits from Fairley when they played Auburn) is one to keep an eye on.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pats have holes to fill

Since I have draft fever so bad I spent yesterday envisioning trades. While I am usually against trade ups as 1 injury can spoil everything I wondered if Jacksonville at 16 would take picks 28 and 60. At 16 and 17 we could get a pair of 1 each OL Castonzo, Carimi or Pouncey and 1 each of Aldon Smith, JJWatt or Cam Jordan then go on with the rest of the draft. That said Locker is a risk and logically does not fit into the Pat system. It is far more likely some other team will want him at 17 or 28 but it is not impossible Belichick wants him. Re. Sanchez : Most teams would take him; he is a middle of the pack starting quality QB I am not a fan. If people can view Kevin Kolb as worth a #1 Locker and Sanchez are better than that. My continued responses to this Locker argument is because it is a gamble but not ridiculous as most bloggers say with references to “idiot” frequently. All draft choices are gambles. My favorite later rd QB’s are McElroy and Devlin they are more likely choices than Locker.

by WRMaurer on Apr 15, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't put Sanchez in the middle of the pack.

He’s just as good as Chad Henne.

AS for the trades, sound picks and targets, but you know it won’t happen. As it is, they’ll hopefully come out of the first 40 picks with a Tackle, a pass-rusher/legitimate Pats OLB prospect and a DE.

The trade prospect I’m up for is jumping up from 17 to 10 and grabbing Robert Quinn. That leaves the 28th (or picks from 28) and 33 (or picks from 33) to grab a tackle (Carimi if he falls, or Ijalana in round 2) and a DE (Heyward or Wilkerson at 28 sounds good).

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Please no more Robert Quinn

Too many strikes against him.

If knowledge is power and power corrupts...

by satsunada on Apr 17, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Devlin is supposedly very impressive in the film room.

-Pulse of the Maggots P.o.t.M. The "pm striker king"- WZB
"Truth is, everybody is going to hurt you; you just gotta find the ones worth suffering for." -Bob Marley
"Don't pray to have easier lives. Pray to be stronger men." - JFK
"Loving a good woman is the best thing a man can do for his moral welfare" -Narrator from The AutoBiography of an Ex-colored Man
Go see Mosul's new blog! An Observation on Sports

by PotM on Apr 15, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Touche.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think i'm recing you just for you user tag.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
Cameron Heyward- Future 3-4 RDE for the New England Patriots.

by NinjaZX6R on Apr 15, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rec for both?

Secret accounts, activate!

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who really beat the Pats - Sanchez, or everyone else on the Jets?

Sanchez’ season passer rating – 75.3
Henne – 75.4
Henne also completed 62% of his passes vs 56%.
DVOA – Henne by about 5%
Plus Sanchez had one of the luckiest years regarding dropped INTs, Henne had one of the unluckiest.

One of these guys is probably going to be out of a job in 2 weeks’ time, but it’s not the guy it probably should be.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

Since 2007 (minus the 2008 season) Brady beats Manning….

Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
Cameron Heyward- Future 3-4 RDE for the New England Patriots.

by NinjaZX6R on Apr 15, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brady leads on deserved MVPs as well.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brady is better

Done more with less; done much better in the playoffs. Manning is tremendous too. Insert argues without reading.

by WRMaurer on Apr 15, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ummm...

Sanchez played a good game. But did he beat us, or was it the Jets’ running game and defense that got them over the line?
He is a below-average QB, but seems to have luck on his side.

As for Brady/Manning, they are the top 2 playing today, and I have never said otherwise. But Brady has won two MVPs since 07, while Manning had his two handed to him (except for 09, where he sacktapped Drew Brees and actually nicked it from Brees’ trophy shelf when he was rolling around in agony). 04 he won deservedly.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tell that to the delusional quacks over here

Always brining up the Pats D….Well
Brady had crappy players on offense than Peyton has..let’s see
-Marvin Harrison 1st round pick WR
-Tarik Glenn 1st round LT
-Ed James 1st round RB
-Reggie Wayne 1st round WR
-Dallas Clark 1st round TE
-Joseph Addai 1st round RB
-Anthony Gonzalez 1st round WR
-Tony Ugho 2nd round OT (basically gave up a 1st round pick to move up to the 2nd round to get him)

Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
Cameron Heyward- Future 3-4 RDE for the New England Patriots.

by NinjaZX6R on Apr 15, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Preaching to the choir

(I know it’s a cliche, but it’s 3:00 in the morning here)

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel like the Patriots dropped the ball with the Jets. But it was meant for Green Bay to win the whole thing. New England will get their chance and soon. Sanchez is just okay. Like Eli Manning is to me. Not really a guy who will beat you. But who can capitalize on mistakes.

by Patriots12 on Apr 15, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

A NE-GB Super Bowl would have been epic.

That’s got to be the favourite matchup with Vegas for XLVI

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think Green Bay will return to the summit. They were good last season. Really good. But success is hard to duplicate. They do have one piece to help them repeat-defense. But they need a running game as well. And let’s not forget that Aaron Rodgers cannot suffer anymore concussions either. Their division is also going to be a challenge. I like the way they are made. But I don’t see them repeating.

by Patriots12 on Apr 15, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see them doing two things -

- celebrating too much, and doing a 2010 New Orleans or 02 Pats, completely blowing the season (something that seems very unlikely given the situation the players find themselves in), or
- playing the whole season without major injuries, and challenging the 07 Pats.
It all hinges on Rodgers’ health (his play is… pretty good), but their defense is the best in the league, and they should have a “good enough” running game with Ryan Grant returning. They play the NFCS, the AFCW, The Giants and the Rams. Not a ridiculous schedule, but the Lions games are intriguing, SD should be around the mark, and NO, ATL and TB could be interesting.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe you need 3 things to repeat. 1 a strong running game. 2 a really good defense. 3 better breaks than what you got the previous year. Green Bay has a good team. I think their schedule is against them for trying to do what the 07 Patriots did. There were a few games they barely won last season. But they will have a chance to be in the playoffs.

by Patriots12 on Apr 15, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

They were also decimated by injury,

And finished 10-6. They lost 6 games by less than a TD, I think. Will they go 16-0? I doubt it. Freaky things have to happen for that. But they have to be odds-on to get the #1 seed.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Rodgers might have surpassed Manning last season.

-Pulse of the Maggots P.o.t.M. The "pm striker king"- WZB
"Truth is, everybody is going to hurt you; you just gotta find the ones worth suffering for." -Bob Marley
"Don't pray to have easier lives. Pray to be stronger men." - JFK
"Loving a good woman is the best thing a man can do for his moral welfare" -Narrator from The AutoBiography of an Ex-colored Man
Go see Mosul's new blog! An Observation on Sports

by PotM on Apr 15, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe.

But Brees surpassed Brady (and Manning) in 09, so I’m trying to avoid season-by -season stuff. If Manning “sucks” again, and Rodgers plays like last season, then I’d agree with you.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

He did in 09.

Brady overtook Manning and Brees after about half a game in 2010.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 16, 2011 3:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah it doesn't work like that for me

just like how anyone with a brain knows that Aaron Rodgers isn’t ahead of Brady just because of this year

by pats4life on Apr 16, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe if Brady had a poor year (Manning-style), and Rodgers had a super year.

But not given Brady’s performance. Rodgers is the #2 QB in the league coming into this season.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 16, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd still put Manning over Rodgers...

…but I always thought the “Brees = Manning/Brady” was a little premature. I see the tiers:

1. Manning Brady
2. Brees Rodgers Rivers
3. Roethlisberger Romo Ryan
4. Schaub Manning Cutler

With some leeway, but that’s how it is. All those players are on similar playing fields.

by Richard Hill on Apr 18, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't put Romo with Ryan and Big Ben

Same thing w. Cutler.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
Cameron Heyward- Future 3-4 RDE for the New England Patriots.

by NinjaZX6R on Apr 18, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

He is a

meow who rather throw into coverage than throw the ball away.

Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
Cameron Heyward- Future 3-4 RDE for the New England Patriots.

by NinjaZX6R on Apr 18, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gunslinger?

Riverboat Gambler?

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 18, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this, for the most part.

Rodgers still has some flaws – namely, he can hold on to it a little too long sometimes – and Brees just had a “poor” season, so they’re still a level back. As for Rivers, he puts up numbers, but doesn’t seem to be able to do it when it gets tough (sounds like Romo). I’d put him at the top of the Roethlisberger/Romo tier. Ryan is in the next group back, but if he’s allowed to throw it a bit more, and gets some targets other than White and Gonzalez, he could start to climb.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 18, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's Review

Thank you Pats 12; I think Sanchez is like Eli too obligation is not to lose.Neither could win in Brady’s situation although Sanchez is younger. Neither, I think, is special but both have won. Brady, Manning both in the top 10 QB’s ever probably higher Brady is better in the playoffs with less talent in worse weather. Happy face here. Locker does not project as a fit in the present Pat offense; several others who will be picked later are. Insert and I both think McElroy is one. If Locker, as unlikely as it is, is picked the offense needs reshaping to a Jet type,NYG,Minn,SFr, type with a strong running game or it needs to be subserviant to a strong defense. Hoyer’s contract ends 2011 either side may opt out. It is not crazy for Belichick to pick a qb high and at one point Locker was projected as perhaps a #1 overall pick.

by WRMaurer on Apr 15, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

He might pick Locker at 17. It's possible.

They did the same sort of thing with Tebow last year, so I wouldn’t call it genuine interest until Rodger Goodell calls out the pick. If they did draft him, they could change the scheme from the Brady style to a Cassel-08 style once Brady goes, and let Locker use his legs. Andy Reid probably had different plays lined up once Vick became the starter instead of Kolb.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

What are we disagreeing on?

I don’t think picking Locker is crazy even though it is unlikely.

by WRMaurer on Apr 15, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

We're not disagreeing on anything.

We’re in complete agreement.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

:)

.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Apr 15, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems like this is less about 28

and more about 33. If Locker is still there, this makes interested GMs wonder, and drives up the price. Nice move. Could be drafted by NE, but seems unlikely unless their draft board is sparse

Hey, You're not dressed for an afternoon of Tchaikovsky and heavy petting!

by No Pity on Apr 15, 2011 8:11 PM EDT reply actions  

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