Belichick has draft tendencies...read'em and weep:
He is addicted to VALUE.
He trades like no tomorrow. Teams know this and call him regularly with offers. He has stated that the majority of deals come to HIM not the other way around. This is how he maximizes value.
He is known to "surprise" us with his picks.
11 of his 36 defensive players are from SEC schools.
Despite popular opinion, Bill Belichick is NOT a pass rushing type of coach. If he was, he would have far higher sack totals and a more profound dedication to pass rushers on his roster and in his game planning. The stats do not lie. "Bend don't break" led the NFL in interceptions last year. The New England Patriots simply have more defensive players covering pass routes resulting in more interceptions. Rex Ryan is the polar opposite, gambling on almost every play, vacating countless defensive zones while trying to sack the QB. Bill Belichick does not do this. Live with it and the 14-2 record.
Belichick's defensive backfield says alot about how he evaluates talent.(is it the cold weather?)
White .........Howard (Ok, close enough though)
The man who lives for SEC defensive players has zero problem with small(er) schools covering NFL receivers.
VALUE, NEED and SCHOOL are worth keeping an eye on tomorrow.
NEED: in 2014 he will need to have a QB ready. I assume he has planned to spend a first round or high second pick on one within the next three years. He will seek a "top 3" QB in the draft. This valuation will be HIS rating not that of ESPN. This year Kaerpernik and Mallett are both BIG players who may rate a look as developmental prospects. They will need to drop in a QB happy draft to get into BB's valuation wheelhouse. Remember two other tendencies here. SURPRISE and SEC. Among the QB's in the 2011 draft, Mallet has played,by far, the most difficult schedule (11 starts against top 25 schools) .Look up his two years....they make Locker's record look absolutely pitiful. "Competition" is critical in Belichick's evaluation process. Are any of these QB's worth drafting? Who cares what we think, a tendency however, is SEC.
NEED: Playmaker for the defensive front seven. Farley or Dareus meet his SEC tendency. I do not have any guess as to how he has them valued and this is why. NFL teams are overvaluing QB's and pass rushing defensive talent. A pass happy league is overvaluing pass rushers. Over value is poison to Bill. If the top ten teams draft enough QB's and WR's, as most lousy teams do, then, he may move up to get one one of these two guys (Cardinals?). I suggest he wants to leverage the #17 higher into 2012/13 (another tendency) for a future top 3 QB. This might blow up any potential "trade up" scenario tomorrow.
NEED: OL.If pass rushers, DB's WR's and QB's fly out the door early tomorrow, OL prospects will drop and fit into Bill's value equation.
What might happen:
One of the two first rounders gets swapped to 2012.
An undervalued, impact offensive lineman may be just sitting right there when Bill comes up to bat at #17.
There will be a surprise. Bill does not value players the way the media does.
It is all about value tomorrow. Belichick maximizes value by trading picks to teams who are willing to sacrifice their futures for stupid over reaches and by staying away from from overvalued positions/players.