NFL Draft 2011: Analysis of Saints Trade and Day Two Outlook for the Patriots

Jarvis Jenkins, Drake Nevis, Christian Ballard, etc

You’re not always gonna get the 1st round prospect at every position. I still like the trade, because we only had 5 picks next year. That extra first gives us the trade down options into the second round, where BB thrives in his selections + an extra 2nd this year.

They just spent their 12th pick on one.

I don’t look at what other teams did and say “oh we lost out to them.” I know you may look at it that way, but there are other talented players in this draft. The guys you mentioned are just the name guys that everyone knows. There are guys in this draft that will reach unexpected heights. My thoughts now are to let this whole thing play itself out. I’m not mad with either move. The offensive line was my greatest concern. I feel that need wasn’t really addressed as much as it was more defused than anything. DT is a need position. But Bill has said that you do not draft for need. We’ll see what day 2 brings. And it should be great stuff.

Here is why I don’t see it as a successful first round…

Lets take a trip back to the 2009 draft. The Pats were on the clock twice, but traded down, because we saw “value” in having more later round picks. When all the picks panned out on those two trades, they gave up the chance to select Michael Oher and Clay Matthews, for more picks which were used to pick Darius Butler, Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman. Now admittedly, Tate is a decent receiver and a good return man, and Edelman has shown himelf to be a serviceable 3rd receiver. However, because the team saw “value” in later round picks, instead of pulling the trigger on two all world talents that would currently fill huge holes in this team. Now, you say hindsight is 20/20, which you may be right, however, there would have been value in taking those two players there, as they were projected to go 5 or so spots ahead of where they were available to New England.

However, the point is not to complain about 2009, was it a blown draft, yeah, but you cant win them all. However, my problem with this is how the Pats didn’t seem to learn anything from this.

Fast foreward to this year. We had number 17 and number 28. Now, Cam Jordan was suppossed to go around number 10ish. So, when you are on the clock at number 17, and he is still available there, that is a value pick. You are drafting a very talented player later than where he should have gone. They took a guy in Solder who is a project at tackle. Tackle is definately a need for this team, and if a guy like Solder pans out and turns into a good tackle, thats good value too, so I am not upset about that. However, I feel like a pass rushing OLB/DE is a much more glaring need than Tackle. So while I am not mad about this pick, I do feel like the wrong guy was chosen. Fast foreward to pick 28. And this is the point in which a lot of you are probably going to yell at me. At pick 28, there is a young man sitting there named Mark Ingram. Now, you have 2 serviceable running backs in BJGE and Danny Woodhead. These guys are both decent, and put up good numbers on limited carries this year. However, these guys are not guys that are going to be franchise backs for this team. Mark Ingram is a guy that, within the next 3 years, will have a 1,700 yard rushing season for New Orleans.

Which is where we come back to value. Cam Jordan was projected to be drafted at around 10 overall, but was available at 17. Mark Ingram was projected between 15-20, but as available at 28. Both of those are great value. The pick we get back from New Orleans is probably going to be within 3-4 picks of 28, so we really don’t gain that much value there, and we pick up a late second round pick. Which is exactly the problem I have with the way the Pats have been drafting lately. The pats see more value in having an extra second round pick than they do in actually drafting two incredibly talented players who will fill a need on this team.

it’s crucial we get some good players out of the 2nd round.

You can’t deny the value of the trade (a late-first for and unknown but most likely late-first and a second rounder).

On the other hand the Patriots need to take advantage of those acquired picks at some point. It’s too early to second guess BB and company at this point but I still feel like we will have a hard time to find difference-makers on defense in this draft.

One possibly overlooked aspect assuming free-agency begins soon is that the trade also frees up cash for free-agent signings (even if there won’t be a cap this year there will be sometime in the future).

So if we would have chosen according to my board we could have gotten:

Cameron Jordan and Gabe Carimi

Now we got Nate Solder, a 2012 1st, and the 2011 2:24 pick.

Not a whole lot of difference and we won’t know the outcome until a few years down the road. What really worries me is the absence of defensive difference makers.

Like BlueNGoldBomber I’m afraid of a draft full of Darius Butlers and Brandon Tates another time around. The second round becomes crucial.

With all of the other wide outs in this draft. Like Edmund Gates, Ricardo Lockette, Greg Little, and Titus Young, the Falcons still could have gotten a good prospect to go in their offense. And not have given blood to get him.

You guys have a great night. I’ll be back for more intrigue tomorrow.

Calls fielded on 33rd pick. Belichick said that the Patriots have already received calls on the 33rd overall selection, at the top of the second round, from teams who are in the middle of the round. “I think right now the most important thing for us is to just re-group, get a good night’s rest, take stock of everything, re-assess the board, take a look at ourselves, take a look at what some of the teams around us might be doing, and then see what happens,” Belichick said. “There are still a lot of quality players up on the board. We hope that we will be able to get production out of whatever we do with our picks.”

Solder to work at left tackle. “Nate [Solder] was a player who we’ve been on for a long time,” Belichick said. “Nate has been a solid player for Colorado at left tackle. Certainly there’s a lot of things that he’ll need to do to improve but we feel like he’s a good, talented guy, a hard-working kid and if he can keep doing that then I think he’ll be able to contribute for us. We’ll work him at left tackle.”

I hope I’m not the only one to remember that the Saints just lost a playoff game to a 8-9 team, and their QB threw 22 interceptions, 2nd most in the league. I’m not saying the Saints will give us the much promised top 10 pick, but I think it will be higher than their 24th this year, and surely higher than 28th. By the old trade value chart, 28th is worth 660 points, and 52nd is worth 380. So even if the Saints win the Super Bowl next season (32nd pick is worth 590), the Patriots still got AT LEAST a 310 point steal from them. To face how valuable that is, the 59th pick in the draft is worth 310 points. So that’s a lot, to get a trade of a 1rst for a 1rst and a 2nd and get another 2nd in point differential. To have an idea, to make the trade mathematically fair, the Patriots should’ve sent their 60th along with their 28th, and would still get 10 points over the Saints. I know the trade value chart won’t be gospel when/if the rookie salary cap actually happens, but even if changes, it won’t chance that much to erase a 310 point difference off a trade. Great trade. I remember saying in this thread that, if any team would give a 2012 1rst and a 2011 2nd for 28th, Belichick would be crazy not to make it. And he did, so I’m glad, and happy, and satisfied. 2 first rounders in 2012, more leverage, more young talent for a team that will stay competitive for years and years and years to come.

For day 2 I like these guys to be 5 tech:
Da’Quan Bowers or Allen Bailey if they bulk up
Christian Ballard
Jarvis Jenkins
Kenrick Ellis
Cedric Thornton (big sleeper, might be great at NFL)
Jerrell Powe
Stephen Paea

And most OLBs:
Da’Quan Bowers or Allen Bailey if they keep their weight
Justin Houston
Brooks Reed
Martez Wilson
Sam Acho
Chris Carter
Greg Romeus
KJ Wright
Jeremy Beal

like last year? XD

Vikings took Ponder 12th overall.

I am still kind of disappointed we didn’t get a 5 tech, but the upside on Solder is amazing. Scarnecchia must be foaming at the mouth to mold this kid into an elite left tackle.