Patriots Defense: Who Might See the Door (Part 1)
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintHey everyone! Like Greg, I disappeared for a couple weeks to take care of end-of-the-year finals. Well, they're done so I should be posting more often. - Rich
Everyone remembers Asante Samuel; he's the phenomenal cover corner who has the tackling ability of a second grader. Pro Football Focus ran a tally and he finished second to last in the league with a 3.6 tackle/missed tackle ratio. Samuel was let go by the Patriots because of the exorbitant contract he demanded, but also because of how poorly he fit the defense's scheme. The Patriots focus on a bend-don't-break scheme, where they'd rather take the solid tackle or pass defended over risking the big play. Samuel loves taking risks and now he's in Philadelphia. Who else might have to start worrying?
Fun fact: It might not be Jonathan Wilhite. Wilhite finished top 10 in the league with a 22.0 tackle/missed tackle ratio, with one missed tackle on the year.
Another fun fact: It might not be Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather finished with a 12.0 ratio, although that may be a result of his poor angles taking away poor tackle attempts.
The culprit? James Sanders.
James Sanders had 9 missed tackles on the year, according to PFF, and while you may not agree with their grading, their stats are pretty spot on. Sanders posted a 6.89 ratio, which means that he misses almost twice as many tackles as Meriweather. Sanders is commanding a lofty contract for $2.8m this upcoming season, not including bonuses, which is the last year on his contract. The cap hit from Sanders is 11th on the team, which is a high price to pay for the back-up free safety who struggles to tackle (of course, he's right behind Tully Banta-Cain and Nick Kaczur, two more players who might have their roster spots in jeopardy).
The combination of Sanders contract value and duration and his play on the field should be enough to make Sanders worry about his roster spot. The addition of Ras-I Dowling as a potential free safety, as well as Brandon Meriweather's oddly superior performance makes Sander's spot even more of a question mark.
Sanders is known as a leader on and off the field, but leadership didn't save Sam Aiken's roster spot. Sanders is a player who needs to step up this off-season if he wants to make an impact and justify another contract extension.
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Some other Sanders stats
From my own calculations:
Only 10.8 percent of Sanders’ tackles were stops, where he prevented any YAC. That was third to last in the NFL, only better than Alan Ball and (funnily enough) Ed Reed.
He gave up 48.13% of his yards after the catch, worst on the team.
He only made plays (a INT, a PD, an INC or a Stop) on 24.5% of balls thrown his way; that’s fourth worst in the NFL in front of Aaron Francisco, Alan Ball, Brandon Meriweather (21.18%) and Don Carey. This does have to do with the scheme we run though.
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Proud Patriots fan and draft analyst, no matter what Ted Thompson says.
by Ethan Hammerman on May 18, 2011 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't expect a Safety to be making too many stops,
especially one in a deep zone (like Reed). He’s generally going to where the ball is (or will be) thrown, rather than having the ball thrown to where he is. Tough for even the best to get there first.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 18, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Be better to know where these missed tackles were on the field, as well as what happened afterwards.
A missed tackle at the line of scrimmage is better than missing one 30 yards downfield. Making the guy break the tackle or just forcing him to change direction are important too, and if those 9 missed tackles led to 3 extra yards each, it’s still better than missing one 30 yards away.
Meriweather probably benefited from their system by not even touching the guy he was trying to tackle (McCourty hit, anyone?). But it’s the way he tackles that gets me. All helmet and attempting to lay out rather than shoulder and bringing down.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 18, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions
Right
Is he missing tackles in run support?
Is he missing them because he was actually THERE to miss them whereas Merriweather was too busy taking out McCourty?
Is he missing receivers as a free safety?
This is the only one I’d have a huge problem with.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Official Fire-Puncher for Pats Pulpit an SB Nation Blog
by SlotMachinePlayer on May 18, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you pay for PFF?
Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
In Bill We Trust.
Email me about a media credential
Because I have those. I could just switch around my password and let you in
by Greg Knopping on May 18, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
To use their numbers?
Awesome. I normally just ask them and ask for their analysis for a two-fer, but that would rock as well.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
as well as Brandon Meriweather’s oddly superior performance
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
don't you think this is cause for concern?
Meriweather sure doesn’t LOOK the part. Also, just the flip-of-the-coin play from Meriweather is enough to keep me scared all game long
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
Agreed.
That’s why I’m asking them for extra clarification. Meriweather took bad angles to not even get the chance to miss the tackle. Maybe Sanders took slightly better angles, but bad enough that he wasn’t able to make the full body tackle.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
that's what I was wondering too
cause I like Sanders more
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
I didn't really like either, to be fair.
Meriweather is a lot more athletic, Sanders always seems to fill in well. Need a healthy medium.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll take the solid guy that doesn't screw stuff up
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
Fewer WTF moments for me.
Besides Sanders still picked Manning.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Official Fire-Puncher for Pats Pulpit an SB Nation Blog
by SlotMachinePlayer on May 18, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
a lot of people did lol
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
Sanders just has a lot of flat plays, in my opinion.
Where he’s in the place to do something and just doesn’t. Neither is the answer, is basically what it comes down to and Sanders is too expensive to be a utility back-up.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm afraid this is what it comes down to
Sanders won’t be the starter and he’s making way too much to stay on as a backup. Unless they’re sick enough of Meriweather to ship him out, Sanders’ time is up IMO.
Deep in enemy territory
hahahahahahahahahahaha
way to post
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 18, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's called a P4L FAIL!
Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
In Bill We Trust.
by NinjaZX6R on May 18, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
you find out how to rec your own stuff there Ninja?
cause every fail is a Ninja fail, even when not by you lol
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
False.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 19, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Right?
I’m asking them about the missed tackles.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
FO does better analysis...
…but PFF does a good job with in depth statistics. It’s when they try and analyze the statistics that it becomes more questionable.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Said it before, say it again
My JOB is performance measurement
When idiots like PFF focus on inputs rather than outcomes, they might as well go back to the 19th century
What did BB say about statistics?
by quadruple option on May 21, 2011 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
hey no talking about your jobs on PP
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
who you calling son?
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
You hinted at why these stats might be misleading.
Meriweather finished with a 12.0 ratio, although that may be a result of his poor angles taking away poor tackle attempts.
These stats don’t take into account plays where there is never an attempted tackle by the player, like when he is out of position, when he takes a bad angle, when he blows his assignment, etc. What this tells me is that if and when Meriweather is in position, he’s likely to make the tackle. Sanders might be less likely to make a clean tackle, but from pure observation, I’m willing to be he’s usually in better position. From a DBD standpoint, I’ll take the guy that’s reliably in position (even though he’ll miss the occasional tackle) to the guy who tends to stray from his assignment or make bad reads.
But does that mean Meriweather has more potential?
What can you teach, a player to take better angles or a player to become a better tackler? They’re both in the hot box, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Sanders who gets the short stick.
With one year left on both contract, I’d take the guy with more potential (Meriweather) over the guy who is in position, but can’t make the tackle (Sanders).
I wouldn’t extend either, but for the final season, if it comes down to it, I’d be fine taking Meriweather.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll take the guy that misses the tackle but at least slows down the ball carrier
than the guy who is never in the play
know that luck favors the prepared. - SMP
The guy's in his
5th season with the patriots under BB’s coaching. He is what he is. I can understand you saying that in 08 or 09, but this 2011 and he still is having the same problems, and shows really little no signs of getting rid of these problems. I too would take the reliable guy (Sanders) over the slacker (Merriweather).
I'm not willing to give up on Meriweather.
He had a poor season this year, but two seasons ago he had a spectacular season, where he deservedly made the Pro Bowl. Mike Jenkins is facing similar adversity down in Dallas, as a young former first round pick Pro Bowl DB who had a poor 2010. We know that both players have Pro Bowl potential, so I think that they should wait longer than one year to make a judgement on them. If Meriweather plays like a Pro Bowler again this season, all will be forgotten. Don’t forget that Matt Patricia is moving to safety coach, he will hold Meriweather accountable.
by dreynoldsPATS on May 19, 2011 4:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not to be repetitive with what Kole said but...
Arguments like this are good for first or second year players…maaaaybe third year. But both Sanders and Meriweather have been in the league long enough that you should be able to know what you are going to get out of them year in and year out barring injury. This is really the whole crux of the argument between the two. Meriweather is the enigma (sometimes great , sometimes indefensibly bad) and Sanders is the steady but rarely spectacular player.
So, yes, Meriweather had a spectacular season a couple years ago but if you go into every season like he’s a box of chocolates (do I really need to explain that?), then it may not be worth it to keep him around. Keep in mind that this is the last year of his contract so its not a matter of just this year. The Pats need to know if he is good for a whole new go around.
Meriweather was an alternate for the Pro Bowl in 09.
I believe he was the 6th player they asked. Hardly Ed Reed.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 19, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Meriweather was the 4th safety in the AFC
Yes, hardly Ed Reed, but 4th best safety in a conference is still more than acceptable. As for this past year, it was noted that Corwin Brown had interests or ideas which conflicted with those of BB. I’ll come right out and say that I think that having Brown as the safety coach probably really hurt the play Meriweather. We know that Patricia is a Belichick disciple, so I see the safety group as a whole look a lot dofferent this upcoming season. (All IMO)
by dreynoldsPATS on May 20, 2011 2:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it far more likely that Meriweather sits.
I can’t see him able to overcome what he’s done previously, and I think Patricia has him on a far shorter leash. One blown play, or a missed tackle, and he’s in plain clothes on the sidelines next week.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 20, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup.
But that doesn’t mean he’ll realize that potential, which is why Meriweather is so frustrating. To me, he’s Laurence Maroney 2.0 – a guy with sky high potential, if he could just get his head on straight. Unfortunately, he spent his formative early years in a locker room dominated by the likes of Asante Samuel, Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss (e.g. guys who have on concept of team or playing within a system). I think he’s forever missed the “Patriot Way” boat, and I don’t except him to catch up to it anytime soon. Here’s hoping he proves me wrong, but for now, Sanders is the better fit and the better Patriot.
Well...
…it seems as if all of Sanders’ MTs came against RBs. That’s not good, but I’ll ask about Meriweather.
Apparently Meriweather's misses came against all players...
…WRs, TEs, RBs, QBs. Goes to show how both FSs are in trouble. Hopefully, Ras-I can play some solid FS. Maybe even Arrington.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
So that's not good
But then again, hasn’t he had a lot more opportunities in run support?
Interesting article nonetheless.
I would just say that intangibles separate Sanders from Meriweather. We know he takes better angles, is as smart as they come, is first into the film room and last to leave it, and is a great leader.
The funny thing about Sanders is that we look at him as this guy who’s sub-par. He’s really not. He’s an above average starting safety in this league. Not the greatest, but he’s good enough. We keep burying him down the depth chart, but he is just so reliable that there always seems to come a time when the Patriots turn back to him as the starter. This could be his last year as a Patriot. He could be traded for some value. But personally, I don’t think his cap hit is too much to absorb for the Patriots.
by Greg Knopping on May 18, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It could also mean that Sanders is better off in the FS role...
…and when he was in the box (Chung’s role) when Chung was out, he was abused. Shows that Sanders is not going to be a run stuffing safety, but he doesn’t make enough plays on the ball to be a legitimate FS. He’s neither a strong or free safety- he’s just a safety.
As you said, great utility guy who always comes up when needed, but not impressive. Possibly the Dan Connolly of the secondary?
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Good running backs should break arm tackles.
If you are in coverage and come in for run support, some of that is to be expected. You don;‘t have a lane, you’re just reacting to the ball carrier.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Official Fire-Puncher for Pats Pulpit an SB Nation Blog
by SlotMachinePlayer on May 18, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Counter point, good safeties should bring down running backs.
Or at least not rank in the bottom 20 of safeties in the entire league with tackle rate.
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
They should especially when in run support like Chung often is.
My point was more when he is in coverage moving up, then he’s no different than a cornerback who may have to peel off of a block.
If he’s not on a man, then yeah, he should make the tackle.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
Official Fire-Puncher for Pats Pulpit an SB Nation Blog
by SlotMachinePlayer on May 18, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
Maybe the FS will do better when Chung is healthy and they can stay back in coverage, and maybe they’ll thrive with a real nickel, as opposed to Chung stepping up.
That’s what we’ll find out next year. Either way, we’ll be getting a safety next year (unless someone converts).
by Richard Hill on May 18, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Now that they say it,
I remember Kuhn hurdling him a few times, and I’m pretty sure Hillis trucked him into the endzone once or twice.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 19, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Hill
What was Pat Chung ranked as?
thanks
Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
In Bill We Trust.
Are Meriweather's stats inflated by tackling his teammates instead of the ball carrier?
Is there a stat for knocking your own player out of the play? All kidding aside, I would be interested in seeing how many long plays were made per snap with the different safeties on the field.
Meriweather is a playmaker...
for the other team
If knowledge is power and power corrupts...
by satsunada on May 19, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Young defense
As we have said many times this defense was exceptionally young and divided each week by injuries to different players. Just as we are hoping the pass rush will improve with experience, safeties may have been trying to do the job of other players. That said, Ras I Dowling was projected as a safety in some magazines. The offensive orientation of the draft may [or may not] reflect a feeling that the defense is better than it appears.
The more positional flexibility, the better
Chung was a S who played slot CB last year, to mixed effect. Having a CB who can cover S, or a S who can cover CB (I’m undecided which he is) won’t hurt at all, and means Belichick can put out a nickel package that’s actually three Safeties, or vice-versa.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on May 19, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
For all we
it was watching Chung try and cover the slot that made BB select a guy like Ras-I in the first place. I like Chung but it was painful watching him be two steps behind the receiver everytime.
I don't mind him covering TEs...
But he’s not a WR-eating guy at this moment.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on May 20, 2011 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions
He is far better suited to play Rodney's former role.
Stuffing the run up in the box, or dropping into a middle-deep zone to provide over the top coverage for the CBs. He struggles somewhat, as did Rodney, against small, shirt slot receivers.
and what exactly is a shirt slot receiver?
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by insertscreenname on May 20, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
i think he meant to say shifty.
Non Sibi Sed Patriae ;I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life.
In Bill We Trust.
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