Who Will Step Up For the 2011 New England Patriots?
by Ashto12 on Jul 13, 2011 8:43 AM EDT
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Despite not winning a single playoff game in 2010, the New England Patriot's season in most people's minds can be considered somewhat successful. Not simply because the team achieved a league best 14-2 record, but because they did so with one of the league's most youthful defenses, where numerous rookies and second year players were expected to perform to a high level. Furthermore, the team did it whilst shifting offensive philosophies mid-season and subsequently trading away their primary wide receiver. To me, this is a great foundation to build on in 2011.
Whilst the upcoming 2011 season will no doubt have its own team successes once more for the Patriots, for the team to truly progress to the next level, it will require a number of players to really step up, not just as leaders for this team, but key contributors in the clutch. Much has been made of Mike Vrabel's recent retirement and one sentiment which was common amongst analysts was Vrabel's ability to step up in the biggest of games. Here, I identify five players on the Patriot roster who I feel are key to the team's upcoming season - how they perform will not necessarily define the Patriot season but I feel it will certainly play a huge role. This is NOT a criticism of how these players have performed, but simply a selection of key players who I want to take their game to the next level because, in doing so, I think they could hugely effect the outcome of the 2011 season for the Patriots. I am hoping these players will step up, perform and lead this team to achieve all it is capable of achieving...
1. Ty Warren
Put simply, Warren has something to prove. He missed the whole of 2010 due to injury and some feel that he has not justified the contract extension he received a few years ago after a breakout 7.5 sack performance in 2006. That is not to say Warren is not effective - he is one of the best run stopping 5-technique defensive ends in the league, someone Vince Wilfork cannot praise enough. However, Warren needs to up his sack and QB pressure numbers as well as stay healthy for s full season. His recent appearance at the unofficial OTA's, where he turned up looking noticeably trimmer, has some questioning whether he may be in for a stint at RDE, leaving someone like Ron Brace to man the LDE spot. I am looking to Ty Warren to a) stay healthy; and b) get after the QB more. Defensive End pressure is key in the 3-4 defense and Warren needs to return to '06 form - he claims he is "fresh," so his return to health coupled with an improvement from our OLBs should see a rise in his performance against the pass.
2. Patrick Chung
Pat Chung is one of my favourite Patriots - he works his tail off at every practice session, studies film as often as he can, never complains about being asked to do something he isn't used to (Vrabel-esque) and as of 2010, makes plays on the field. By all accounts, he is also one of the leaders in the Patriot locker room, a true Belichick player who plays 4 downs (just ask Miami). Furthermore, the guy hits and players rarely get away from him. In 2010, Chung showed himself to be one of the emerging talents at SS in the NFL, with 96 tackles and 3 INTs, with one returned for a TD. He would have finished with more tackles but for being asked to moonlight as a makeshift slot corner - he admittedly struggled at slot CB but never once complained. In his third season and now the Patriots have very strong depth at CB, Chung should be able to return to SS full time, where he knows and understands his role fully. As such, I am looking for Chung to continue to have solid tackle and INT numbers, but would look for him to add a few sacks to his game. Additionally, I am really hoping Chung emerges as the leader in the secondary, and also as the type of hitter opponents fear in the way they did Rodney Harrison (without being called dirty).
Despite only notching one sack in his rookie season, the former Gator produced a QB pressure on 10.66% of all his pass rushes (according to PFF). Just from memory, I can remember countless occasions where he was in the backfield and narrowly allowed the QB out of his grasp. Cunningham has the pass rushing talent to reach double digit sacks in the next year or two and if he can get some additional help from the defensive line, he will see his numbers rise sharply. In 2010, Cunningham displayed a real maturity beyond his experience when playing the run but needs to work on dropping into coverage as he had only 1 pass defended. In 2011, it is vital for the Patriots that Cunningham makes the jump from ‘almost' to ‘playmaker.' Not only will this force teams to game plan for him more, but also it allows the Patriot defense to not rely on scheme for their pass rush. Bill Belichick believes Jermaine Cunningham can make the jump in his second season, and I will certainly be looking to Cunningham to take it to the next level.
To me, this is not so much an expectation of on-field production, but more of off-the-field maturity and leadership. Brandon Spikes is touted as a leader by many, on the field and off - he voluntarily suspended himself in college after an eye gouging incident; but it is off the field where he needs to display more maturity. After being suspended 4 games for failing to report a medication he was using, he then appeared to report back to the Patriots slightly out of shape! What makes this all the more frustrating is that his on-field performance in 2010 was very, very good. According to Pro Football Focus, he graded out as the 11th overall best ILB and 8th best against the run, which for a so-called ‘slow' rookie, is outstanding and a tremendous platform to build upon, so much so the the folks at PFF name Spikes their "Secret Superstar". Spikes is an intimidator on the field for the Patriots, a vocal leader and a playmaker. In 2011, I am looking for Spikes to increase his maturity and leadership off the field and be more accountable to his teammates - doing so would immeasurably benefit this team and Spikes could really emerge as one of the best play-stoppers in the league.
5. Dan Connolly
After the 2010 season came to a close, many fans identified the interior of the Patriots offensive line which needed early round attention in the draft - in particular an upgrade for Dan Connolly, who Pro Football Focus rated as one of the top 20 worst Guards in pass protection, an area of concern with recent Patriot playoff losses (Connolly allowed only 2.5 sacks (unofficial) in 2010 but he continually allowed pressure on Brady). However, despite Stephen Neal's retirement, the Patriots instead chose to address Left Tackle with one of their early selections, perhaps indicating they were happy with Connolly's season, which was basically his first year as a starter (no 1st or 2nd year starters made PFF's Top 20 list for pass protection) and they feel he deserves a chance to show if he can address this area of his game in 2011. Perhaps it also has something to do with Connolly's run blocking, which helped the Patriot offensive line finish 2nd in the league according to Football Outsiders ranking of teams running the ball between Center and Guard, and 1st in the league in running to the right side of the line, where Connolly and Sebastien Vollmer finished up the season. Therefore, I am looking for Dan Connolly to improve his pass protection in 2011 and with a 2nd year of starting games under perhaps the best offensive line coach in the game, he has a great opportunity to do so. The line needs him to make the jump, as it will (possibly) be breaking in a left tackle of the future in Nate Solder, so will require all other members to be at their best.
Analysis
These are players who I think can be vital to any Patriots success in 2011. This is not saying that these players underperformed in 2010, and therefore not a criticism of these players. Cleary, this analysis is defensively biased, but I think we can all agree that the defense needs to progress in 2011 if the Patriots are to seriously contend in the playoffs, particularly in the defensively strong AFC. I strongly though about putting Brandon Tate on this list but I feel with the shortened offseason, the Patriot playbook will be much the same as it was in 2010, and that means more 2 TE sets, and less opportunity for Tate (and indeed Taylor Price). I hope I am wrong about that and the Bill O'Brien can find away to get these young guys involved, but common sense suggests that may not be practical, at least early in the season.
Which players do you think could be vital for success in 2011 and would you like to see step up?
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Solid list
And I agree that the WRs might have to wait before seeing a real increase in playing time.
Deep in enemy territory
In an ideal world,
Connolly never sees the field at G, with Mankins and Cannon locking down both All Pro spots for the next 6 years (at least).
Hopefully we can start to find areplacement for Koppen at C, since he struggles with the big NTs, and that’s what everyone’s running now.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
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by BigRussNovak on Jul 13, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Dan Connolly at C?
I’d rather he be a solid LG, RG, C, FB, special team backup/role player, but I wonder if he’d be more solid than Koppen.
Entirely dependent on how well he snaps, of course. Koppen’s snaps are flawless, both under center and shotgun.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 15, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
First thing to look at would be snapping.
Better to give up a few sacks, than to have 4 or 5 missed snaps a year. Then look at his smarts, or ability to call the protections, and then size. He has to get over 300lbs, or bench a huge amount, to stand up to the NTs.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
I thought he was 300 on the dot
He got thrown around a bit too much as a pass-protecting RG, but C is more of a support role than true blocker, at least the way Koppen played last year.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 15, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant anyone we draft.
I’d prefer Connolly be the top interior backup, with the ability to start, rather than the out-and-out starter.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
Wide receivers:
I see Wes getting back close to his 100+ catch rate (he’d have been close if he hadn’t had so many drops).
I see Edelman working on the fundamentals to get back on the field. He can actually be a complement to Wes, because he has the speed to run the middle routes, and the quickness to take it to the house once he catches it. With Wes just under the LB’s and Julian just over them, there will be some commotion midfield.
Tate’s tough to call, because as Rich pointed out he was successful in the Branch type role, but unsuccessful in the Moss type role. If they can find a niche for him, he’ll do well.
As a group they are too talented for us to have to face three and outs. They just need to make the plays when they have the opportunities.
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by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 13, 2011 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
I don't see it Rich
I don’t see the pass rush ability you see in Cunningham. I would be really surprised if he gets 10 sacks next year. I mean he just doesn’t have that explosiveness. I still have faith he could become a good pass rusher, but I didn’t see too much potential in his rookie year to lead me to believe he could become a 10 sack guy next year.
Maybe not 10 but close
With a year under his belt and a more consistent D-line I see it happening.
I think the point was
that with Ty Warren coming back, the addition of Stroud, and Cunningham improving he could be more of an impact player.
If you believe Cold Hard Football Facts or Football Outsiders then our Defensive Front (the D-line, and presumably including linebackers rushing the passer and in run support) was one of the worst in the league (ranking 20th or 22nd) in 2010. Stroud, a healthy Warren and Cunningham after his “2nd year leap” would go a long way in improving that.
Deep in enemy territory
3rd downs allowed kills the D Hog Index.
They were average up front last year. Take Wilfork out, and they were terrible. Put Ty Warren back in…????
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
Definitely true
3rd downs were brutal. Ty Warren is second only to Vince on the line so I’m betting he makes an impact when he’s back on the field. For what it’s worth he did participate at the BC workouts. Not sure if he stayed at left DE or moved around, as some have speculated.
Deep in enemy territory
Doesn't the front 7 include OLBs
and regardless Eric Moore still came and got more sacks than Cunningham in waaaaaay fewer games. IDK, hopefully he will make that 2nd year jump and starting getting some good pressure on the QB. Pressures can be better than sacks.
What about Darius Butler?
Not saying he steps up into the playmaker to take the top off the Pats D, or steps up to All-Pro status or anything.
But even if he steps up as an extremely reliable slot corner, that could be huge for our D.
With McCourty being himself, Bodden returning, adding Ras-I into the mix on the outside, if we have a slot CB that can effectively shut down the slot, and maybe grab a few picks along the way (he grabbed 3 his rookie year) that could actually help put our D over the edge.
I’m also saying Butler because he’s maybe a player that NEEDS to “step up” after a disappointing season last year.
If we can get anything out of Butler
that would be great, but really this is a make or break season for him.
I'm not entirely sold on that.
Heck, Wilhite is still here after far more years than Butler. Wilhite has never done anything to impress me.
Granted Butler had a poor season last year, but he was just as, if not more reliable as a backup than Wilhite has ever been.
I feel like it’s easy to say that anybody’s 3rd year in the league is a “make or break” year.
Butler is an extremely athletic, and very talented player. I feel like his floor is as a reliable backup CB, and his upside is maybe an excellent shut-down slot CB as well as a reliable backup outside CB.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 15, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I realized as soon as I posted this.
That I was entirely misspeaking when I said Wilhite has had “far more years” than Butler. But he was drafted slightly before Butler and other points still remain.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 15, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Whilite has been a solid nickel guy
but that’s all he is a nickel guy, you try to put him outside you get trouble.
And I disagree that it’s easy to say it’s a make or break year for any 3rd year player. From the top of my head I can name 3rd year patriots that have some decent job security. Pat Chung, Rob Ninkovich, Julian Elderman. They have already shown what they are and Patriots know how to use them.
I say this is a make or break year for Butler because he was giving up the big play way too many times last season and BB thought of him as expendable because of it (tried to trade him). If he can’t produce in his role this year then he’s as good as gone.
I can think of a guy off the top of my head
that’s given up the big play more times in a year than Butler and has lasted: Meriweather.
Why ? Because Meriweather is young, has tremendous athleticism, potential and upside.
The same can be said about Butler. He’s young, and has tremendous athleticism, upside, and potential.
Also Butler to me got torched in the Jets game yes, but later on in the season as he started to gain back some playing time he was playing pretty well.
To me any player that doesn’t produce in their role in as good as gone. Belichick is very known for the surprise cut or trade. And yes you’re correct about Patrick Chung etc. and their job security.
I understand why someone could view Butler as on the bubble, and surely if he has another couple of hiccups like last year’s Jets and Bengals game I could see that being the case.
However, he won’t be relied upon as much as he was early in the season last year with the return of Bodden, and McCourty playing as well as he did last year.
His role is most likely the top slot corner, and I can see him performing this role admirably and having a sort of bounce back year.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 15, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
You have admit
that the pressure is on Butler to show something not just because he is going to be a third year player but because he is about to get buried on the depth chart if he doesn’t. With Bodden coming back and McCourty having a lock on a corner spot Butler has to show he is more valuable than Arrington and Ras-I. For his sake, he better become the best damn slot corner on the team.
I can admit that he needs to show something.
Definitely. I believe he needs to improve, he needs to show progress, and he needs to gain consistency and show that the struggles of last year are behind him.
However I do not agree with your statement that he needs to show he’s more valuable than Arrington or Ras-I.
Arrington is probably best as a special teams ace, and a backup outside CB.
Butler to me is more physically suitable to play in the slot than Arrington, and also possesses better ball skills.
To me the worst case scenario for Butler is that he needs to show he’s more valuable than Wilhite, and I think that’s a battle he easily wins.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 16, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Umm actually I think
Bulter might have to prove he’s more valuable than Ras-I and Arrington, because Ras-I’s size is a big part of the reason we drafted him. That size allows him to cover those big outside WRs we have in our division, so he is more suited to play on the outside, and like you said Arrington’s our best STs Ace and proved suitable backup outside CB. So if Ras-I is on the outside they’re probably going to move either Bodden or McCourty to the slot (neither of which Bulter has a chance of beating out). So it could come down to him proving he’s better on the outside than Arrington and Ras-I
The thing is
Even if Bodden, McCourty, Arrington, and Ras-I are all ahead of Butler on the depth chart for “outside CBs” who plays in the slot?
Also, I would believe the Pats are willing to carry 5 CBs.
So I just don’t think Butler needs to beat out Arrington or Ras-I, I think he just needs to beat out Wilhite.
As far as roster spots go anyways.
I also think that if Butler can show that he’s more valuable than Arrington in the slot, he’ll get playing time. Arrington is a great special teams player, and he’s got tons of straight line speed. However he never showed much shifty-ness, and he doesn’t have great ball skills. Therefore Butler’s more likely a fit in the slot than Arrington.
Also as far as Ras-I goes, he’s a rookie. He didn’t have a full offseason, and he’s completely unproven. Sure I have no doubt the Patriots will keep a roster spot for him, but is he really more valuable than Butler right now? The Pats have also had a history of bringing DBs along slowly. McCourty might be the exception, however Meriweather, Chung, Butler, heck even Wheatley and Wilhite all never received that much playing time their rookie year. Most young defensive backs see their playing time ramp up a bit towards the end of their rookie year, and than increase greatly their second year. So to me Ras-I isn’t going to see much playing time at all this year, and if so it’ll be towards the end of the year, regardless of talent.
Therefore, If Butler beats out Wilhite, and Ras-I won’t be ready this year, and Arrington is better on the outside, or contributing on special teams, who else plays CB in the slot? Chung? We all know we’d rather see him stay over at SS.
That is why to me Butler isn’t on the roster bubble, it isn’t a make or break year, and he doesn’t have to beat out Arrington or Ras-I.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 16, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
And as far as McCourty goes...
…the only reason he did see so much playing time is because of a couple factors.
1. The Bodden injury
2. The crap that we had at the roster… just a couple years earlier we were starting Ellis Hobbs and Deltha O’Neal, and the best CBs we had on our roster besides McCourty and Bodden, who was injured, McCourty’s rookie season were Butler, Wilhite, and Arrington.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 16, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a little confused now
because you half agree with me in a couple of these posts and then you half don’t. Regardless, rookie or not I think Ras-I does get a shot this year. It might not be in the first 4 games but they are going to see what he can do. Butler better hope he has his game on lock down by then.
CBs tend to get a shot because they're the smallest guys on the field and get dinged easily
It’s why a lot of teams carry 5 or 6 on the roster and another one or two on the PS (as well as kicking the tyres on another 3 or 4 in training camp) – they’re unlikely to last a full season, so you plan accordingly.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Jul 17, 2011 5:39 AM EDT up reply actions
A lot of teams carrying 5 on the roster
is one of the reasons I don’t think Butler “NEEDS” to beat out Arrington or Ras-I for a roster spot. I think Butler could beat out Wilhite and be the 5th CB on the depth chart, hence having a roster spot.
Granted he should surely want to beat out to the two of them for playing time.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 17, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't think anyone was arguing whether he was going to get cut
it is a matter of being buried on the bench.
Ooooh....
My bad. Misinterpretation on my part.
I do think he’ll make the team. I could also see him playing anywhere from 25 – 50% of the defensive snaps.
I don’t think he’ll be one of our top 2 CBs. But I can see him being #3 on the depth chart, and I think at worst, depending on Dowlings readiness and developmet, #4.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 17, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you in that
Butler needs to play better than he did during his struggles last season.
I just don’t agree with the idea that it’s a make or break year for him. I also think people are counting on Ras-I too much too early, especially considering the shortened offseason.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 17, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
No whilite probably won't
be in the slot because if Ras-I is better on the outside either Bodden or McCourty would be moved to the slot to have the best CBs on the field. Bulter wouldn’t have to only beat out whilite he would also have to beat out one of our two starting CBs that got moved to the slot position. Bottom line if he’s is going to get playing time he has to play well at his role
Of course.
Anybody has to play well in their role, or they won’t be used in that role, or at all, again.
I just feel that Butler is, at worst, the 3rd or 4th best CB on our team at the start of next year.
Ras-I has the chance to beat him out as the year moves on, but I really don’t feel like he’ll be ready to start the year.
Also Arrington played well while Butler struggled and was benched last year, but is that a complete certainty next year?
If Butler plays better than Arrington, than that’s better for the Patriots as Arrington can save most of his energy on being a special teams ace.
If Butler is the 3rd best CB on the depth chart next year, than he will get playing time as the Patriots are in sub-packages about 50% of the time.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 17, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the main difference of opinion here
and it is just that, it’s my opinion. I’m not trying to suggest it’s fact.
But the main difference of opinion I have with most people on the subject is Ras-I’s readiness to start the season, combined with the possibility of Butler bouncing back next season and possibly being higher on the CB depth chart than Arrington.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 17, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
…what if he does show “he’s the best damn slot corner on the team?”
Possibly save McCourty. I believe McCourty could line up anywhere against anybody and be the best CB on the team.
But hey, if Butler can hold down the slot better than anyone else, that would really go a long way towards making our Defense one of the best in the league. We’d have young superstar in the making McCourty, capable physical veteran Bodden who’s good enough to be a team’s #1 CB, but is our #2, and young athletic Butler shutting down the slot. With Arrington and Ras-I as our backups.
They say you need 3 good CBs in today’s NFL. And if Butler shows up in the slot and plays well, we’d most certainly have that.
by UtopianAverage on Jul 16, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
We don't know if they tried to trade him for Pierre Thomas,
Or the Saints wanted him and were willing to give up Thomas.
At that stage, RB was a far greater need than CB – we had 3 on the roster, Benny had shown no sign he was capable of starting for an extended stretch, Morris could have been injured again, and Woodhead was still an undersized change up.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
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