Bold Predictions from a Patriots Homer.

by UtopianAverage on Jul 2, 2011 7:55 PM EDT

Here are some “Bold Predictions” for the 2011 NFL Season, if we have one, from an admitted Patriots homer.

If you are NOT a fan of the New England Patriots you will probably not like what I have to say, so don’t continue reading and definitely don’t troll me saying I’m a homer and these predictions are unrealistic. I will be supporting my predictions with some logical evidence to allow them to hold some weight; however I don’t expect them to be believable to everyone.

1. The Patriots will get the “monkey off of their backs” and win a playoff game this year. In fact, book it; they will win the super bowl. I know that this may seem excessively “bold” or “homeristic” but it’s supposed to, read the title of this article.

The Patriots have lost their last 3 playoff games in a row. They also haven’t even looked very good while doing it. Their offense while dominant in the regular season the last few years has faltered in the playoffs. The defense hasn’t been able to stop the run, specifically in the Ravens playoff game, or even in the couple games where they did pretty well they haven’t been able to do enough in clutch situations to win the game for a bad offense, namely the SuperBowl and the most recent Jets playoff loss. Not that they played poorly. In the super bowl against the Giants they only allowed 17 points. Just that they didn’t do enough in the clutch to win the game for a team that was struggling mightily on offense. For example, in the SuperBowl against the Giants after the offense went on a late game drive to put the team up 14-10 the defense allowed the helmet catch, failed to catch two would-be game-sealing INTs, and ultimately allowed the game-winning TD drive. Now these all sound like reasons why the Patriots wouldn’t win the SuperBowl or maybe even a playoff game this year right? Wrong!

Those 3 games are in the past. They mean nothing. Zip. Nada. Zilch. The Patriots are hungry. They want to prove the naysayers wrong. This is a very talented team. However this team has also, for the past few years, been very young. This team has learned the “Patriot Way.” They have learned how to win, evidence of this being a 14-2 regular season last year. Strides that this team has needed to make in the past, they have made. In 2009 this team COULD NOT win on the road. In 2010 this team was very proficient on the road, including against division rivals. This team is ready to make the next stride, and that is to win in the playoffs. The offense will perform up to expectations, and the defense will follow. This young team will grow just as much as they have in the past few years next year. They will rally around each other, and their cause. Also I truly believe this team will have a championship caliber defense next year. What? That sounds crazy? Read on.

2. The Patriots will have a championship caliber defense next year.

A lot has been made of the Patriots defense. They can’t stop teams on third down. They can’t stop the pass. They don’t have a pass-rush. They need an OLB. It’s all crap.

The Patriots were a top-10 scoring defense last year. And while they were poor in some statistical categories, like third-down defense, and passing yards against. They excelled in others, like take-aways.

This team has been successfully rebuilding their defense for a few years now. They have a lot of young guys with tons of talent and potential. Some of them have been putting it together for years, namely Jerod Mayo. Well I believe this is the year other guys step up too. You have a monster in the middle in Vince Wilfork. And albeit they lack another “big name” on the line besides Wilfork, they have enough talent. Let’s not forget the amount of injuries this team suffered on the defensive line before that playoff game against the Jets last year. Brace was hurt, Mike Wright was hurt, hell Ty Warren was lost for the season before the season began. Having Ty Warren, Mike Wright, and Ron Brace back, as well as adding Marcus Stroud will pay dividends for the Pats. They will have a line that will be able to stop the run with a 3 man front, and will be able to rush the passer in sub-packages with a 4 man front. Mike Wright, and Myron Pryor are both very good interior pass-rushers. Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Ron Brace, and Marcus Stroud should prove effective at stopping the run. Eric Moore, Jermaine Cunningham, Rob Ninkovich, and Tully-Banta Cain will play OLB in the base 3-4. However in sub-packages they will play DE in a 4 man line and rush the passer, and should prove more effective than last year.

Combine the development of young talent along the defensive line, with the development of young talent at MLB and in the secondary… and we’re going to have quite a D.

Jerod Mayo has been wonderful for years now, be he still has room to grow. Brandon Spikes and Gary Guyton are also young, talented, growing, and good at what they do. Devin McCourty had a stellar rookie season, and hopefully the CB corp will be more consistent around him this year than they were last with the return of Leigh Bodden and the addition of Ras-I Dowling. Also hopefully Darius Butler can recover from a poor season last year and look closer to the form he showed at the end of his rookie year, or maybe even improve on it. Safety might just be our deepest position on the roster. Bill Belichick is a great defensive mind. This will be his second year not just being our head coach and general manager for all intents and purposes, but also calling the defensive plays. I truly believe this defense will not only improve over last year, but dominate.

3. Tom Brady and the offense will have another splendid year. Okay maybe this one isn’t as so bold.

However much has been made about the lack of a “deep-threat WR.” Some people have even suggested that Brady has been so good the last few years he is due to have an un-Brady-like year. This is bull. Our O.C. was pretty awful in 2009, and pretty good last year. We had two rookie TEs last year that looked great, they will look as great or better. Wes Welker was coming off an ACL surgery and had a case of the dropsies all year. He may not look like 2007 Wes, but he will be reliable and consistent, and maintain his status as Brady’s safety valve in the slot. The running game improved last year with BJGE, and Danny Woodhead. It now also receives the addition of two talented young rookies. This offense will be more balanced than usual, but will also be equally as effective. Throw in the development of Tate and Price for good measure. We should be able to run for a yard when we need to, and move the chains through the air when we need to. We jettisoned a declining Randy Moss mid-season last year, and got BETTER as the season went on, before the collapse against the Jets. I feel like with an offseason of planning, and hopefully, a training camp and preseason (PLEASE!) this new more balanced 2TE offense that we run will continue to be dominant, but not just during the regular season. Into the playoffs as well.

Well, that concludes my 3 “Bold Predictions from a Patriots Homer.” These were meant to be optimistic and homeristic. However if you would like to discuss or debate any of the views shown above, feel free to do so in the comments section below.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Comments

I don't think these predictions are too bold or "homeristic."

The Patriots had an extremely talented young team last year, and will only improve on last season. They were talented enough to win 14 games against a very tough schedule, so this year, with a seemingly more balanced, stronger team, they should at least have similar regular season results. One thing that I believe will be different about this coming year will be that in the playoffs, if the Pats are unable to find rhythm and chemistry on a drive, they will be able to consistently move the chains by pounding the rock (multiple colloquialisms in one sentence ftw) until they regain chemistry. With Vereen and Woodhead’s versatility, and Ridley’s power running, they’ll be great additions to BJGE.

Also, I think the entire defense is going to take a huge leap forward this year as well. Mayo, Wilfork, and McCourty are All-Pro’s, and with the help of McCourty, Bodden may return to better form than when he last played. He’ll be playing the #2 receivers, and quarterbacks will more freely throw in his direction than at McCourty (Does anyone else think he needs a nickname? Writing “McCourty” three times in two sentences is very redundant when necessary.) If he only returns to near pre-injury form, it’ll be a step up from last year. Spikes and Cunningham, with a full season under their belts and (hopefully) a fully healthy second season ahead of them, should become much better at their respective jobs, and bring the whole linebacker corps up a notch or two. And even though I’m not even exactly sure what Belichick will ask of Ras-I Dowling, I’m certain he’ll perform at a high level from the start; maybe not to the incredible level that McCourty did last season, but close. Watching him in college blew me away, with his intensity and incredible athleticism. He’ll do very well in the Patriots’ system. The only question I have about the defense is: Will Meriweather step his game up and play like he can/should, or will be a reckless cog in the defensive machine?

Lastly, the three consecutive playoff losses mean nothing to this year, as you said. Joe Montana and the 49ers had three consecutive playoff losses before winning back-to-back Super Bowls, so that’s the proof right there that it doesn’t mean the sky is falling, or the window is closing on the Patriots, as so many pundits and “analysts” believe. The Patriots will return to their early 2000’s playoff success, and it starts with this year. Ten years ago a dynasty was born; and while the success of the dynasty (if you measure success in rings) hasn’t been as prevalent in recent years, they’ve still been powerful. This year, reloaded and ready for redemption, the Patriots may very well start Dynasty 2.0. I think that’s a possibility we all hope comes true.

It matters not how strait the gate, nor charged with punishments the scroll:
I am the Master of my fate. I am the Captain of my soul.

by BigRussNovak on Jul 3, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

Many thanks for your input.

I do believe it is kind of “bold” just to predict the team you’re a fan of to win the Super Bowl. But with how talented our team is, and how well we performed in the regular season maybe you’re right. Maybe it isn’t that bold at all. The only thing that suggests otherwise is the past playoff performances, and those games mean nothing.

Just like the 45-3 beatdown of the Jets meant nothing when it came time to play them in the playoffs past games mean NOTHING when it comes to future games. The games are played on the field, and every game is different.

I’m very happy someone agrees with me about the defense.

I never stop believing in my team. However I have to admit that as the injuries started mounting up on the defensive line late in the year last year, it gave me a funny feeling in my tummy and I started worrying about the playoffs.

Obviously every team has injuries every year, but losing Warren, Brace, and Wright really really hurt. We’ll have injuries this year too, but I just hope they’re more spread out across multiple positions, rather than a ton of injuries piling up at one or two positions. Our team is built to have not only a good top end but also multiple layers of depth at many positions. This team should be able to handle the average amount of injuries any NFL team faces any year.

I’m very excited about the offense. I think people are wrong about Vereen too, as far as labeling him a Woodhead or a Faulk type of player. This kid is strong, and has the ability to run in between the tackles. I consider him more of an all-around RB. He can run inside or outside, he can block and he can catch. He may not be a grinder like BJGE, or a goal-line pounder like Ridley. But I also don’t believe he’s as limited as your typical scatback or receiving back. He’ll be more than just a third-down back for us. As far as our rookies go Vereen is the one I’m most excited about. I think he’ll get opportunities, in our RBBC, and make the most of them.

All in all I guess the message I was trying to send is quite simply “I believe in this team.” Every team has holes or weaknesses. I just think that our team has far fewer than most, and that the holes or weaknesses that we have are overblown and exaggerated by the media.

by UtopianAverage on Jul 3, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's really easy to forget

that our team last year was considered to be “rebuilding” before the season. Also that in 2008 – 2010 we had important offensive cogs either coming back from or suffering knee injuries. With those players at least a year removed from those injuries and the totally revamped defense one year more experienced, I don’t think its a stretch to say they can put it all together this year.

by Oughat on Jul 3, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Cunningham, Ninko, and Moore

are gonna have to step up next season.

by Chris Kole on Jul 3, 2011 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Two failed interceptions

For example, in the SuperBowl against the Giants after the offense went on a late game drive to put the team up 14-10 the defense allowed the helmet catch, twice failed to catch a would-be game-sealing INT, a

by pablum257 on Jul 4, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

I was thinking primarily of the Asante Samuel failed INT, but chose not to put his name in there.

But thanks for the corrections, and I do believe you’re right. One failed INT by Meriweather too right, and one by Samuel ?

by UtopianAverage on Jul 4, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

That is correct.

/cracks open a new bottle

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Jul 5, 2011 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Highly appropriate if that were a bottle of eyebleach

Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit

by Comedic.Sans on Jul 5, 2011 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Drain-o

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by insertscreenname on Jul 5, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Good choice.

I have a bottle of vintage 1985.

THAT Super Bowl was ugly for the Pats.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 5, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

One uncontested failure high and between his hands by Samuel, and a failed uncontested basket-catch by Meriweather dropping out in front of him. People tend not to note Meriweather because he couldn’t catch anything that year so no one expected him to. He spent the following offseason doing catching drills and improved greatly.

by pablum257 on Jul 5, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

As Beichick said about Meriweather, there was only one direction he could go.

He did a great job turning that around.

Now if he could just turn around his free-lancing and taking bad angles, he’d be perfect.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 5, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions